Modelling the spatial population dynamics of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana) using density dependent competitive interactions: Effects of herbivore mortality and varying host-plant quality

Cyclic population dynamics of forest insects with periods of more than two generations have been discussed in relation to a variety of extrinsic and intrinsic forces. In the present study, we employed the selection pressure of density dependent competitive interactions according to Witting's equations (Witting, 2000) as driver for a discrete spatiotemporal model of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana). The model was successfully parameterised to rebuild the cyclic population dynamics of an empirical data set of a 30-year leaf roller monitoring in Russia. Our analysis focussed on the role of herbivore mortality and host plant food quality, which have a significant effect on T. viridana population dynamics. An additional egg or larvae mortality lowers population density and can lead to selection pressures that favour individuals with higher growth rate. This increased population growth rate can not only compensate the additional mortality, but also can lead to higher average moth abundances in subsequent generations. Furthermore, we analysed the effect of inter- and intraspecific variation in host plant quality on herbivore population dynamics and the spatial distribution of abundance and defoliation patterns. We found significant effects of the qualitative composition of a trees neighbourhood on the herbivore population of the respective tree. Also, the patchy damage patterns observable in reality have been reproduced by the present model. The applicability of the model approach and the putative genetic processes underlying Witting's model are discussed.     

Parasite facilitates plant species coexistence in a coastal wetland

Outbreaks of infectious agents in natural ecosystems are on the rise. Understanding host-pathogen interactions and their impact on community composition may be central to the conservation of biological diversity. Infectious agents can convey both exploitive and facilitative effects that regulate host populations and community structure. Parasitic angiosperms are highly conspicuous in many plant communities, and they provide a tractable model for understanding parasite effects in multispecies communities. I examined host identity and variation in host infectivity of a holoparasitic vine (Cuscuta salina) within a California salt marsh. In a two-year parasite removal experiment, I measured the effect of C. salina on its most frequent host, a rare hemiparasite, and the plant community. C. salina clearly suppressed the dominant host, but rare plant fitness and plant species diversity were enhanced through indirect effects. Priority effects played a role in the strength of the outcome due to the timing of life history characteristics. The differential influence of parasites on the fecundity of multiple hosts can change population dynamics, benefit rare species, and alter community structure. The continuum of negative to positive consequences of parasitic interactions deserves more attention if we are to understand community dynamics and successfully restore tidal wetlands.     

Body condition and parasite intensity correlates with escape capacity in Iberian hares (Lepus granatensis)

Preys require effective anti-predator traits to escape from predator attacks, whereas predators focus on individuals that have lower fitness. This fitness reduction is due to the effects of many regulatory forces such as parasites. We directly observed in the field the escape performance of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) against coursing predators (measured as the time to be taken by greyhounds) and examined the relationships between parasite loads and duration of escape behaviours to test the hypothesis that predators would more easily catch substandard individuals. We found a negative relationship between the hare’s escape duration and parasite burdens in various taxa (Taenia pisiformis cisticercus, intestinal Coccidia) as well as with parasite diversity. Moreover, the escape duration of the hares is related positively to their condition. In the particular case of T. pisiformis cisticercus, we found a negative relationship with body condition, suggesting that its effect on anti-predation ability could be mediated by direct spoliation of host resources and/or by increasing requirements for anti-parasite defence. As parasite loads were not directly manipulated, experimental studies are needed to elucidate any causal links between parasite and anti-predatory capacity in Iberian hares.     

Genetic relatedness and eusociality: parasite-mediated selection on the genetic composition of groups

Summary Contrary to the expectations of kin selection theory, intracolony relatedness in eusocial insects is often low. We examined the idea that associations of low relatedness (high genetic variability) may be advantageous because of negative frequency-dependent selection on common host phenotypes by rapidly evolving parasites and pathogens. Using the natural host-parasite system of the bumble bee Bombus terrestris and its intestinal trypanosome Crithidia bombi, we investigated the transmission properties of parasites in host groups. Within naturally infested nests and in artificially constructed groups of workers, prevalence of infestation increased with time of exposure (Table 1). The susceptibility of isolated groups of workers to the parasites to which they were exposed differed with identity and natural infestation of their nest of origin (Table 2). In addition, those workers that were related to the individual introducing an infection to their group were more likely to become infested than were unrelated workers (Table 3). Although the bumble bee workers in experimental boxes appeared to differ in behavior toward kin and non-kin, making more physical contacts with kin, we found no discernible relationship between number of physical contacts and prevalence of infestation in a group. Therefore, we conclude that differences in parasite transmission reflected interactions among different host and parasite phenotypes. This system thus demonstrates the factors necessary for negative frequency-dependent selection by parasites on common host phenotypes - variability for susceptibility and infectiousness in host and parasite populations and similarity for these traits among related individuals. If, as we show here, high genetic relatedness within groups enhances parasite transmission, kin directed altruism may increase the risk of contracting parasites and infectious diseases. Therefore, parasites and pathogens may be an important force moderating the genetic structure of social groups. Offprint requests to: J.A. Shykoff at the present address     

High intervality explained by phylogenetic constraints in host-parasite webs

The finding of invariant structures in species interaction webs is of central importance for ecology, with the greatest challenge remaining the elucidation of the processes governing these universal web patterns. Here we quantify the degree of intervality of seven fish-metazoan and 33 mammal-flea webs, i.e., the number of irreducible gaps in parasite diets along the host spectrum, and then challenge the idea that some invariant structures may emerge in host-parasite webs. Using a null model of random links between parasite and host species we find that empirical host-parasite webs exhibit a strong bias toward contiguity of parasite diet, i.e., toward intervality. Going one step further, we demonstrate that a null model with phylogenetic constraints on host-parasite links produced webs very similar to empirical ones, particularly when phylogenetic constraints occur at the family level, that is, when two hosts from the same family are more likely to be infected than two random hosts. In addition, we propose a new standardized measure of intervality which describes a novel "facet" of natural networks as it is independent of connectance or web size. We suggest using this measure as a surrogate of web maturity or saturation as phylogenetic constraints can drive webs toward intervality.     

Predation affects the susceptibility of hard clam Meretrix lusoria to Hg-stressed birnavirus

Predator–prey interaction in aquatic ecosystem is one of the simplest drivers affecting the species population dynamics. Predation controls are recognized as important aspects of ecosystem husbandry and management. In this paper we investigated how predation control cause an increase in host growth in the abundance of hard clam (Meretrix lusoria) populations subject to mercury (Hg)-stressed birnavirus. Here we linked predator–prey relationships with a bioenergetic matrix population model (MPM) associated with a susceptible–infectious–mortality (SIM) model based on a host–pathogen–predator framework to quantify the predator effects on population dynamics of disease in hard clam populations. Our results indicated that relative high predation rates could promote the hard clam abundances in relation to predators that selectively captured the infected hard clam, by which the disease transmission was suppressed. The results also demonstrated that predator-induced modifications in host behavior could have potential negative or positive effects on host growth depending on relative species density and resource dynamics. The most immediate implication of this study for the management of aquatic ecosystem is that, beyond the potential for causing a growth in abundance, predation might provoke greater predictability in aquatic ecosystem species populations and thereby increase the safety of ecosystem production from stochastic environmental events.     

Parasite transmission in complex communities: predators and alternative hosts alter pathogenic infections in amphibians

While often studied in isolation, host-parasite interactions are typically embedded within complex communities. Other community members, including predators and alternative hosts, can therefore alter parasite transmission (e.g., the dilution effect), yet few studies have experimentally evaluated more than one such mechanism. Here, we used data from natural wetlands to design experiments investigating how alternative hosts and predators of parasites mediate trematode (Ribeiroia ondatrae) infection in a focal amphibian host (Pseudacris regilla). In short-term predation bioassays involving mollusks, zooplankton, fish, larval insects, or newts, four of seven tested species removed 62-93% of infectious stages. In transmission experiments, damselfly nymphs (predators) and newt larvae (alternative hosts) reduced infection in P. regilla tadpoles by -50%, whereas mosquitofish (potential predators and alternative hosts) did not significantly influence transmission. Additional bioassays indicated that predators consumed parasites even in the presence of alternative prey. In natural wetlands, newts had similar infection intensities as P. regilla, suggesting that they commonly function as alternative hosts despite their unpalatability to downstream hosts, whereas mosquitofish had substantially lower infection intensities and are unlikely to function as hosts. These results underscore the importance of studying host-parasite interactions in complex communities and of broadly linking research on predation, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases.     

Interannual dynamics of antibody levels in naturally infected long-lived colonial birds

Little is known about the long-term persistence of specific antibodies (Ab) in natural host-parasite systems despite its potential epidemiological and ecological importance. In long-lived species, knowledge of the dynamics of individual immunological profiles can be important not only for interpreting serology results, but also for assessing transmission dynamics and the potential selective pressures acting on parasites. The aim of this paper was to investigate temporal variation in levels of specific Ab against the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in adults of a long-lived colonial seabird, the Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla. In wild populations, adults are naturally exposed each breeding season to a Borrelia vector, the tick Ixodes uriae. Breeding birds were captured during four consecutive breeding seasons, and parasite infestation quantified. Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblots, we found that the immunological profiles of anti-Borrelia Ab were highly repeatable among years, reflecting the interannual persistence of Ab levels. We nevertheless also observed that year-to-year changes of Ab levels were related to exposure to ticks in the previous year. The long-term persistence of Ab levels may be an important mechanism of individual protection against future exposure to the microparasite. It will also affect the availability of susceptible hosts, and thus the transmission dynamics of the bacterium. These results illustrate the need to consider the dynamics of the immune response in order to better understand the evolutionary ecology of host-parasite interactions in natural populations.     

A dynamic host selection model for mountain pine beetle,Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins

The link between individual habitat selection decisions (i.e., mechanism) and the resulting population distributions of dispersing organisms (i.e., outcome) has been little-studied in behavioural ecology. Here we consider density-dependent habitat (i.e., host) selection for an energy- and time-limited forager: the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We present a dynamic state variable model of individual beetle host selection behaviour, based on an individual’s energy state. Field data are incorporated into model parameterization which allows us to determine the effects of host availability (with respect to host size, quality, and vigour) on individuals’ decisions. Beetles choose larger trees with thicker phloem across a larger proportion of the state-space than smaller trees with thinner phloem, but accept lower quality trees more readily at low energy- and time-states. In addition, beetles make habitat selection decisions based on host availability, conspecific attack densities, and beetle distributions within a forest stand. This model provides a framework for the development of a spatial game model to examine the implications of these results for attack dynamics of beetle populations.     

Toward an integrative molecular approach to wildlife disease

Pathogens pose serious threats to human health, agricultural investment, and biodiversity conservation through the emergence of zoonoses, spillover to domestic livestock, and epizootic outbreaks. As such, wildlife managers are often tasked with mitigating the negative effects of disease. Yet, parasites form a major component of biodiversity that often persist. This is due to logistical challenges of implementing management strategies and to insufficient understanding of host–parasite dynamics. We advocate for an inclusive understanding of molecular diversity in driving parasite infection and variable host disease states in wildlife systems. More specifically, we examine the roles of genetic, epigenetic, and commensal microbial variation in disease pathogenesis. These include mechanisms underlying parasite virulence and host resistance and tolerance, and the development, regulation, and parasite subversion of immune pathways, among other processes. Case studies of devil facial tumor disease in Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) and chytridiomycosis in globally distributed amphibians exemplify the broad range of questions that can be addressed by examining different facets of molecular diversity. For particularly complex systems, integrative molecular analyses present a promising frontier that can provide critical insights necessary to elucidate disease dynamics operating across scales. These insights enable more accurate risk assessment, reconstruction of transmission pathways, discernment of optimal intervention strategies, and development of more effective and ecologically sound treatments that minimize damage to the host population and environment. Such measures are crucial when mitigating threats posed by wildlife disease to humans, domestic animals, and species of conservation concern.     

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution.     

The effects of parasitism on energy flow through laboratory shrimp populations

I quantified the effects of parasitism by the isopod Probopyrus pandalicola on energy flow through the host Palaemonetes pugio by comparing secondary production, metabolism, ingestion, and egestion by unparasitized laboratory shrimp populations to the same parameters for parasitized groups during 10 months. The effects of parasitism on host growth and metabolism vary from month to month. Temperature, season, host age, sex, and reproductive condition affect energetics for host-parasite systems. Probopyrus pandalicola has little effect on host assimilation efficiency. However, tissue growth efficiences during most study months were higher for control shrimp than parasitized shrimp. These differences between groups were of lesser magnitude when parasite production was considered in the calculations. Trophic level energy intake efficiency for parasites was of the order of 6 to 10% throughout much of the study—the highest values were calculated during the parasites' reproductive months. Through parasitic castration, P. pandalicola significantly affects host energetics. Significantly, parasite reproduction was often of the same magnitude as reproduction by unparasitized hosts, although parasite biomass accounts for only about 4% of the total host-parasite system biomass.     

Parasite genotypes identify source populations of migratory fish more accurately than fish genotypes

DNA-based assignment of individuals to their population of origin has many applications such as mixed-stock analysis, identifying individuals from protected populations, and elucidating migration patterns. However, low genetic differentiation among populations will cause misassignments. Thus, an alternative means of determining an individual's population of origin is needed in cases where there is little or no neutral differentiation among source populations. Here, we test the hypothesis that parasite genotypes can be used to identify the origins of hosts more accurately than host genotypes. Using microsatellite markers from steelhead trout and their trematode parasites, we show that the odds of correct assignment are four times greater with the parasite's genotypes than with the host's genotypes. Our analyses show that this result is simply explained by the greater genetic structure among populations of the trematode parasite. Recent studies on the comparative genetic structure of other host and parasite species suggest that our results are not unusual or unique to the host-parasite system we studied. Thus, our work indicates that parasites will be useful for a wide range of applied and basic research that requires the assignment of individuals to source populations.     

The impact of parasite manipulation and predator foraging behavior on predator-prey communities

Parasites are known to directly affect their hosts at both the individual and population level. However, little is known about their more subtle, indirect effects and how these may affect population and community dynamics. In particular, trophically transmitted parasites may manipulate the behavior of intermediate hosts, fundamentally altering the pattern of contact between these individuals and their predators. Here, we develop a suite of population dynamic models to explore the impact of such behavioral modifications on the dynamics and structure of the predator-prey community. We show that, although such manipulations do not directly affect the persistence of the predator and prey populations, they can greatly alter the quantitative dynamics of the community, potentially resulting in high amplitude oscillations in abundance. We show that the precise impact of host manipulation depends greatly on the predator's functional response, which describes the predator's foraging efficiency under changing prey availabilities. Even if the parasite is rarely observed within the prey population, such manipulations extend beyond the direct impact on the intermediate host to affect the foraging success of the predator, with profound implications for the structure and stability of the predator-prey community.     

Temporal, spatial, and between-host comparisons of patterns of parasitism in lake zooplankton

In nature, multiple parasite species infect multiple host species and are influenced by processes operating across different spatial and temporal scales. Data sets incorporating these complexities offer exciting opportunities to examine factors that shape epidemics. We present a method using generalized linear mixed models in a multilevel modeling framework to analyze patterns of variances and correlations in binomially distributed prevalence data. We then apply it to a multi-lake, multiyear data set involving two Daphnia host species and nine microparasite species. We found that the largest source of variation in parasite prevalence was the species identities of host-parasite pairs, indicating strong host-parasite specificity. Within host-parasite combinations, spatial variation (among lakes) exceeded interannual variation. This suggests that factors promoting differences among lakes (e.g., habitat characteristics and species interactions) better explain variation in peak infection prevalence in our data set than factors driving differences among years (e.g., climate). Prevalences of parasites in D. dentifera were more positively correlated than those for D. pulicaria, suggesting that similar factors influenced epidemic size among parasites in D. dentifera. Overall, this study demonstrates a method for parsing patterns of variation and covariation in infection prevalence data, providing greater insight into the relative importance of different underlying drivers of parasitism.     

Multiple plant exploiters on a shared host: testing for nonadditive effects on plant performance.

The combined impact of multiple plant parasites on plant performance can either be additive (the total damage equals the sum of the individual effects) or nonadditive (synergistic or antagonistic damage). Two statistical models are available for testing the independent (=additive) effects of two factors. Here we suggest that the natural history of the plant-parasite system should motivate the choice of a statistical model to test for additivity. Using in-field, manipulative experiments, we examined the interactions between the herbivorous mite Calacarus flagelliseta Fletchmann, De Moraes and Barbosa (Acari: Eriophyidae), the fungal pathogen Oidium caricae F. Noack (a powdery mildew), and their host plant Carica papaya L. in Hawaii. First, we found that herbivorous mites had a moderate negative effect on powdery mildew: when mites were absent, powdery mildew colonies were larger and more numerous. Second, we showed that each plant parasite, when evaluated alone, significantly reduced several measures of plant performance. Third, we found that the combined impact of mites and mildew on plant performance is mostly additive and, for a few variables, less than additive. Finally, we explored compensatory responses and found no evidence for nonlinearities in the relationship between plant performance and cumulative parasite impact. Plants are almost universally subject to attack by multiple herbivores and pathogens; thus a deeper understanding of how multiple plant parasites shape each other's population dynamics and plant performance is essential to understanding plant-parasite interactions.     

Defoliating insect immune defense interacts with induced plant defense during a population outbreak

During population outbreaks, top-down and bottom-up factors are unable to control defoliator numbers. To our knowledge, details of biotic interactions leading to increased population density have not been studied during real population outbreaks. We experimentally assessed the strength of plant defenses and of insect immunocompetence, assumed to contribute to active insect resistance against parasitoids and pathogens, in the geometrid Epirrita autumnata during a steep increase in population density. We demonstrated rapid (same-season) induced resistance in the foliage of its host, mountain birch. The response was systemic, spreading throughout the tree, and retarded larval growth rate by approximately 10%. On the other hand, no direct delayed carry-over effects were found in the next season in larval growth rate, mortality, or pupal mass. Larval damage to a tree during the previous year, however, significantly (by approximately 13%) accelerated the advance of the immune response (measured as melanization of an implant inserted into the pupal hemocoel). The encapsulation rate correlated positively with larval mortality in trees in which larvae had been introduced the previous year, but not in control trees. Both of these observations suggest that induced plant defense was associated with an increased insect immunocompetence during the population increase.     

Size-mediated non-trophic interactions and stochastic predation drive assembly and dynamics in a seabird community

Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that body size is a major life-history trait impacting on the structure and functioning of complex food webs. However, long-term analyses of size-dependent interactions within simpler network modules, for instance, competitive guilds, are scant. Here, we model the assembly dynamics of the largest breeding seabird community in the Mediterranean basin during the last 30 years. This unique data set allowed us to test, through a "natural experiment," whether body size drove the assembly and dynamics of an ecological guild growing from very low numbers after habitat protection. Although environmental stochasticity accounted for most of community variability, the population variance explained by interspecific interactions, albeit small, decreased sharply with increasing body size. Since we found a demographic gradient along a body size continuum, in which population density and stability increase with increasing body size, the numerical effects of interspecific interactions were proportionally higher on smaller species than on larger ones. Moreover, we found that the per capita interaction coefficients were larger the higher the size ratio among competing species, but only for the set of interactions in which the species exerting the effect was greater. This provides empirical evidence for long-term asymmetric interspecific competition, which ultimately prompted the local extinction of two small species during the study period. During the assembly process stochastic predation by generalist carnivores further triggered community reorganizations and global decays in population synchrony, which disrupted the pattern of interspecific interactions. These results suggest that the major patterns detected in complex food webs can hold as well for simpler sub-modules of these networks involving non-trophic interactions, and highlight the shifting ecological processes impacting on assembling vs. asymptotic communities.     

Development and validation of an individual based Daphnia magna population model: The influence of crowding on population dynamics

An individual-based model was developed to predict the population dynamics of Daphnia magna at laboratory conditions from individual life-history traits observed in experiments with different feeding conditions. Within the model, each daphnid passes its individual life cycle including feeding on algae, aging, growing, developing and – when maturity is reached – reproducing. The modelled life cycle is driven by the amount of ingested algae and the density of the Daphnia population. At low algae densities the population dynamics is mainly driven by food supply, when the densities of algae are high, the limiting factor is “crowding” (a density-dependent mechanism due to chemical substances released by the organisms or physical contact, but independent of food competition).     

A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France

A multi-agent simulation (MAS) was developed to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue in southern France, a non-endemic area where mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles (Culicidae) live. The contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, or the human biting rate, is one of the key factor to predict the risk of re-emergence of malaria, would the parasite be introduced in the region. Our model (called MALCAM) represents the different agents that could influence malaria transmission in the Camargue – people, mosquitoes, animal hosts and the landscape – in a spatially explicit environment. The model simulates spatial and temporal variations in human biting rate at the landscape scale. These variations depend on the distribution of people and potential vectors, their behaviour and their interactions. A land use/cover map was used as a cellular-spatial support for the movements of and interactions between mobile agents. The model was tested for its sensitivity to variations in parameter values, and for the agreement between field observations and model predictions. The MALCAM model provides a tool to better understand the interactions between the multiple agents of the disease transmission system, and the land use and land cover factors that control the spatial heterogeneity in these interactions. It allows testing hypotheses and scenarios related to disease dynamics by varying the value of exogenous biological, geographical, or human factors. This application of agent-based modelling to a human vector-borne disease can be adapted to different diseases and regions.