Intercomparison of Two Models,ETA and RAMS,with TRACT Field Campaign Data

In this work a model intercomparison between RAMS and ETA models is carried out, with the aim of evaluating the quality and accuracy of these mesoscale models in reproducing the time evolution of the meteorology in real complex terrain. This is of great importance not only for meteorological forecast but also for air quality assessment. Numerical simulations are performed to reproduce the mean variables' fields and to compare them with measurements collected during the field campaign TRACT. The domain covers the Rhine valley and surrounding mountainous region and we consider a time period of two days. Results from simulations are compared to observations relative to ground stations and radiosoundings. A qualitative analysis is joined to a quantitative estimation of some reference statistical indexes. Both RAMS and ETA models performances are satisfactory when compared to the measured data and also their relative agreement is good. The mean variable fields are reproduced with a satisfactory degree of reliability, even if the simulated profiles are not able to describe the largest fluctuations of the variables. At the surface stations, the best agreement between predictions and observations is obtained for the wind velocity, while the quality of the results is lower for temperature and humidity.     

Beijing's coordinated development of population,resources, environment,and economy

Since the Olympic Games will be held in Beijing at 2008, the urban development plan of Beijing deserves special attention. The essence of regional sustainable development is that population (P), resources (R), environment (E) and economy (E) could develop with sustenance, order and coordination during a certain period, which forms a complex system called the PREE complex system. For this system, a multi-objective integrated model is formulated and solved by a nonlinear goal programming technique. Beijing's PREE complex system is then used as an empirical study. Twelve interesting goals are carefully selected, the parameters of each goal function were estimated by using Beijing's 50-year (1949–1999) statistical data, and their ideal goal limits for 2000 and 2005 are chosen according to the 9th and 10th Five-Year Economic Development Plans of Beijing. The results showed that population size is the most sensitive element in Beijing's PREE complex system. Furthermore, some suggestions related to public policies about the urban development of Beijing are proposed.     

2,4,6-三氯酚在模型水生生态系统中的归宿

测定了模型水生生态系统水、底泥中2.4,6-三氯酚(TCP)浓度随时间的变化值,以及TCP从水中挥发、光解、底泥吸附、解吸、微生物降解的速率常数.假设水中TCP的迁移和转化遵循—级速率过程,水中物质平衡能通过数学等式来描述,显示出室系统教学模型能粗略预测模型水生生态系统中TCP浓度随时间的变化.最后,应用该模型预测了排放到天津室外兼性塘中TCP的迁移、归宿,发现15d后出口水中TCP浓度已降低到入口水中浓度的10%     

Evaluating the environmental flows of China's Wolonghu wetland and land use changes using a hydrological model, a water balance model, and remote sensing

Environmental flows are critical to sustaining a variety of plant and animal communities in wetlands. However, evaluation of environmental flows is hampered by the problem of hydrological and ecological data shortage, especially in many developing countries such as China. Based on a hydrological model, a water balance model and remote sensing data, we assessed the environmental flows of China's Wolonghu wetland with limited data. The hydrological model provides input data for the water balance model of the wetland, and the remote sensing data can be used to assess land use changes. Integration of these two models with the remote sensing data revealed both the environmental flows of the Wolonghu wetland and the relationships between these environmental flows and land use changes. The results demonstrate that environmental flows have direct and indirect influences on the wetland ecosystem and should be linked to sustainable wetland management.     

Parameterizing,evaluating and comparing metapopulation models with data from individual-based simulations

Due to the lack of sufficient data and appropriate ecological information parameterizing predictive population dynamical models usually is a difficult task. The approach proposed in this study is meant to overcome this problem by using detailed individual-based simulations to generate artificial data. With short-term data samples, the models to be investigated can be parameterized and their predictions be compared. The flexibility of individual-based simulations as experimental tools also facilitates the evaluation and comparison of different (aggregated) model types. The presented approach is a step towards unifying models of different complexity. As an example we applied it to two metapopulation models of insect species in a highly fragmented landscape: the well-known incidence function model with a patch-based representation of space and a grid-based analogue. The models are tested with respect to their data requirement and recommendations for a better data sampling are derived.     

Fishing sustainability via inclusion of man in predator-prey models: A case study in Lago Preto, Manacapuru, Amazonas

We modeled a fishery's system with two types of fishermen, commercial and subsistence fishermen, who exploit the fish stock at the Amazonian floodplain lakes. In the first model, we combined the Lotka-Volterra equations with Verhulst's Logistic model, by inserting hydrological cycle oscillations. The second model was based on the equations proposed by Berryman, which reflect the predator's functional response in relation to the prey's population behavior, taking into account the hydrological cycle. In both models, commercial fishermen and local direct consumers (called riverside dwellers - riverines - in the model), were considered the only predators acting upon fishing stocks. Primary data were collected in 48 riverside homes throughout 2006. The total number of interviewees corresponds to 69.6% of the universe of homes in the community defined as study area. The riverines were the predators that showed capacity to eliminate the opponent predators (commercial fishermen). The best scenery obtained regarding the number of prey, was the one that showed only commercial fishermen in the region. On the other hand, the simulations show that the coexistence is possible among predators, and between predators and their prey. The seasonal model with functional response provides a better response in relation to the system's current situation and to the established modeling conditions than the Lotka-Volterra seasonal model. The seasonal model with functional response also showed a better response pattern in all scenarios, with oscillations taking place more gradually, both for variations associated with the flooding pulse and for relations between predators and prey.     

Local calibration of coliforms parameters of water quality problem at Igapó I Lake, Londrina, Paraná, Brazil

This article presents results concerning the local calibration of the transport parameters (longitudinal and transversal diffusions and decay coefficient) for a two-dimensional problem of water quality at Igapó I Lake, located in Londrina, Paraná, Brazil, using fecal coliforms as an indicator of water quality. The simulation of fecal coliforms concentrations all over the water body is conducted by means of a structured discretization of the geometry of Igapó I Lake, together with the finite difference and finite element methods. By using the velocity field, modeled by the Navier-Stokes and Poisson equations, the flow of fecal coliforms is described by means of a transport model, which considers advective and diffusive processes, as well as a process of fecal coliforms decay. In the checkpoint, the longitudinal and transversal diffusion coefficients and the coliforms decay coefficient that best fitted the value of the fecal coliforms concentration were D_x = D_y = 0.001 m²/h and k = 0.5 d⁻¹ = 0.02083 h⁻¹. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of the numerical simulations conducted in function of the diffusion coefficients and of the coliforms decay parameter provided a better understanding of the local water quality at Igapó I Lake.     

Assessing environmental factors in red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) growth in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA: From conceptual model, envirogram, to simulation model

This study provides a method for assessing a multiplicity of environmental factors in red spruce growth in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) of Southeastern USA. Direct and indirect factors in the annual growth increment are first organized into a schematic input-output envirogram (ARIRS), and this information is then used to construct a simulation model (ARIM). The envirogram represents a structured conceptualization of most environmental factors involved in growth, as developed from relevant literature. This interdisciplinary synthesis distinguishes direct vs. indirect factors in growth and takes account of the systems ecology concept that indirect factors may be as important as or more important than direct ones in regulating growth. The ARIRS envirogram summarizes hierarchically organized, within- and cross-scale, local-to-global interactions, and its construction makes it obvious that growth is influenced by many cross-scale spatiotemporal interactions. More research on genecology is still needed to clarify the role of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive capacity in nutrient cycling, global change, and human disturbance.     

Global Warming, Human Population Pressure, and Viability of the World's Smallest Butterfly

Abstract:  The effects of climate change and habitat destruction and their interaction are likely to be the greatest challenge to animal and plant conservation in the twenty-first century. We used the world's smallest butterfly, the Sinai baton blue ( Pseudophilotes sinaicus ), as an exemplar of how global warming and human population pressures may act together to cause species extinctions. We mapped the entire global range of this butterfly and obtained extensive data on the intensity of livestock grazing. As with an increasing number of species, it is confined to a network of small habitat patches and is threatened both by indirect human-induced factors (global warming) and by the direct activities of humans (in this case, livestock grazing and collection of medicinal plants). In the absence of global warming, grazing, and plant collection, our model suggested that the butterfly will persist for at least 200 years. Above a threshold intensity of global warming, the chance of extinction accelerated rapidly, implying that there may be an annual average temperature, specific to each endangered species, above which extinction becomes very much more likely. By contrast, there was no such threshold of grazing pressure—the chance of extinction increased steadily with increasing grazing. The impact of grazing, however, decreased with higher levels of year-to-year variation in habitat quality. The effect of global warming did not depend on the future level of grazing, suggesting that the impacts of global warming and grazing are additive. If the areas of habitat patches individually fall below certain prescribed levels, the butterfly is likely to go extinct. Two patches were very important for persistence: if either were lost the species would probably go extinct. Our results have implications for the conservation management of all species whose habitats are at risk because of the direct activities of humans and in the longer term because of climate change.     

Stochastic bycatch, informational asymmetry, and discarding

The existing literature (i) examines bycatch and discard behavior in a static framework and (ii) treats bycatch as a deterministic process uniform across vessels. Using a dynamic representative agent model in a two-stock resource, this paper explores strategic interactions between a social planner and two groups of harvesters, one of which imposes a stochastic “technological externality” (bycatch) on the other. In addition to limitations on entry and the number of trips taken in each industry, three bycatch control instruments are compared to the unconstrained case: taxes, trip limits, and value-based quotas. Implementation and enforcement costs aside, taxes dominate both types of quota, and value limits outperform trip limits by eliminating one type of discarding. In simulations, relative performance depends upon variance in the bycatch process, differences in the ex vessel prices of stocks, relative efficiency of the harvester types, and fixed costs on the trip and industry margins.     

RBCA、CLEA及CalTOX模型在苯并[a]芘污染场地健康风险评估中的应用比较

为探讨不同模型对污染场地健康风险评估结果的影响,以苯并[a]芘为例,采用RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型对某工业污染场地表层土壤进行健康风险评估,分析了评估结果的差异和原因,同时对模型的主要暴露参数进行了敏感性分析,并推导出基于风险概率分布的土壤修复限值。结果表明,RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型计算的苯并[a]芘致癌总风险分别为2.40×10-4、6.32×10-4和7.04×10-6,且经口摄入和皮肤接触2个途径对人体健康造成的危害最大。降解作用是影响CalTOX模型风险评估结果不同于RBCA和CLEA模型的重要因素,3个模型间参数取值及方法学的差异也会导致风险评估结果不同。各模型暴露参数的敏感性排序也有差异。采用基于风险概率分布的方法推导土壤修复限值,RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型所得结果分别为0.18、0.08、0.13(不考虑降解作用CalTOX模型)和10.74(考虑降解作用CalTOX模型)mg·kg-1,为各模型直接推导值的1.5～2.6倍。基于风险概率分布的方法可有效降低风险评估过程中参数不确定性的影响,为工业污染场地土壤修复值的制定提供参考。     

Double dividend hypothesis, golden rule and welfare distribution

This paper analyzes the double dividend issues within the framework of overlapping generations models. We characterize the necessary conditions for obtaining a double dividend, i.e. an improvement of environmental and non-environmental welfare when the revenue from the pollution tax is recycled into a change in the labor tax rate. We show that, depending on the initial capital stock and on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, conditions may be defined to simultaneously allow (i) the obtaining of a long-term double dividend, (ii) the economy to move closer to the modified golden rule and (iii) in the short term, an improvement in the welfare of the two present generations.     

Application of a water quality model in the White Cart water catchment,Glasgow, UK

Water quality models of urban systems have previously focused on point source (sewerage system) inputs. Little attention has been given to diffuse inputs and research into diffuse pollution has been largely confined to agriculture sources. This paper reports on new research that is aimed at integrating diffuse inputs into an urban water quality model. An integrated model is introduced that is made up of four modules: hydrology, contaminant point sources, nutrient cycling and leaching. The hydrology module, T & T consists of a TOPMODEL (a TOPography-based hydrological MODEL), which simulates runoff from pervious areas and a two-tank model, which simulates runoff from impervious urban areas. Linked into the two-tank model, the contaminant point source module simulates the overflow from the sewerage system in heavy rain. The widely known SOILN (SOIL Nitrate model) is the basis of nitrogen cycle module. Finally, the leaching module consists of two functions: the production function and the transfer function. The production function is based on SLIM (Solute Leaching Intermediate Model) while the transfer function is based on the flushing hypothesis which postulates a relationship between contaminant concentrations in the receiving water course and the extent to which the catchment is saturated. This paper outlines the modelling methodology and the model structures that have been developed. An application of this model in the White Cart catchment (Glasgow) is also included.     

西藏农田土和农作物中多氯联苯的分布、环境行为和健康风险评估

南亚排放的多氯联苯类污染物(PCBs)可随大气传输到西藏南部,并沉降到农田等区域。农田中的PCBs能够经食物链进入人体,从而可能对人体健康产生影响。但目前尚无西藏农田PCBs环境过程和农作物健康风险评估的研究。本研究通过同步采集西藏农田土壤和农作物,发现西藏农田土壤、青稞和油菜PCBs的浓度均值分别为5.1 pg·g-1dw、13.5 pg·g-1dw和10.9 pg·g-1dw,低于全球其他地区。青稞和油菜对PCBs的生物富集系数都大于1,说明PCBs在农作物中发生了生物富集现象。模型模拟结果显示,农田土壤中99.6%的PCBs都富集在土壤有机质中,只有0.38%的PCBs进入了植物根系。因此,青稞直接从大气中吸收PCBs是其对PCBs积累和富集的主要途径。基于饮食结构(青稞、牛肉、牛奶和酥油),西藏人群PCBs摄入均值为0.75 ng·kg-1bw·d-1,低于安全阈值约一个数量级。PCBs的食物摄入不会对西藏居民健康状况产生明显影响。     

基于GIS技术及模糊物元分析法的南京市仙林新市区生态安全评价

运用压力-状态-响应模型和层次分析法构建生态安全评价指标体系,综合运用GIS技术及模糊物元分析方法对南京市仙林新市区建设前后(2003和2007年)的生态安全状况进行评价。结果表明,2003—2007年,仙林生态安全状况主要向2个方向发展,生态安全和不安全区域面积均有所增加,占区域总面积比例分别由9.6%和12.9%增加至22.3%和15.0%。由于各区域发展模式不同,生态安全状况区域差异明显。具体表现为仙鹤片区与白象片区生态安全区域面积明显增加,占研究区总面积比例分别由2.6%和3.9%增加至10.1%和9.3%;麒麟片区生态安全状况以临界安全为主,部分片区由临界安全状态向较安全状态转化;青龙片区生态安全状况变化不大。     

A vertical-compressed three-dimensional ecological model in Lake Taihu, China

A three-dimensional ecological model on the basis of the analyses of environmental characteristics is set up for Lake Taihu, one of the largest shallow lakes in China. The hydrodynamic processes, nutrient cycling, chemical processes and biological processes are integrated in the model. Model state variables include: water current, surface displacement, nutrients of nitrogen and phosphorus, as well as their different forms such as ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, phosphate phosphorus, etc., biomasses of macroplankton, phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish, and also the nutrient levels of macroplankton and phytoplankton. A nutrient budget and sediment transformation are also coupled in the model. The data from January 17, 1997 to January 18, 1998 are use to calibrate the model. The model results have shown good agreement with the observations. It implies that the model could be used for the lake environmental management and research for examining the processes and determining the water quality. The reasons of deviations between the modelled results and the observed values are also discussed. There are six factors that explain the deviations of the modelled results from the observed values and they can be grouped into two sets. One set of problems is associated with the standard deviation introduced by sampling and analyses. The second set of problems can be solved by introduction of processes lacking in the present model (resuspension, phytoplankton transportation mode under the wind with low speed, shifts in species composition and varied size of phytoplankton and zooplankton). The latter two processes should be included in the model at a later stage by integration of a structurally dynamic approach into the three-dimensional model.     

Carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and sulfide budgets in the Black Sea: A biogeochemical model of the whole water column coupling the oxic and anoxic parts

Carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and sulfide budgets are derived for the Black Sea water column from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The model is applied in the deep part of the sea and simulates processes over the whole water column including the anoxic layer that extends from ?115 m to the bottom (?2000 m). The biogeochemical model involves a refined representation of the Black Sea foodweb from bacteria to gelatinous carnivores. It includes notably a series of biogeochemical processes typical for oxygen deficient conditions with, for instance, bacterial respiration using different types of oxidants (i.e denitrification, sulfate reduction), the lower efficiency of detritus degradation, the ANAMMOX (ANaerobic AMMonium OXidation) process and the occurrence of particular redox reactions. The model has been calibrated and validated against all available data gathered in the Black Sea TU Ocean Base and this exercise is described in Gregoire et al. (2008). In the present paper, we focus on the biogeochemical flows produced by the model and we compare model estimations with the measurements performed during the R.V. KNORR expedition conducted in the Black Sea from April to July 1988 (Murray and the Black Sea Knorr Expedition, 1991). Model estimations of hydrogen sulfide oxidation, metal sulfide precipitation, hydrogen sulfide formation in the sediments and water column, export flux to the anoxic layer and to the sediments, denitrification, primary and bacterial production are in the range of field observations.With a simulated Gross Primary Production (GPP) of 7.9 mol C m⁻² year⁻¹ and a Community Respiration (CR) of 6.3 mol C m⁻² year⁻¹, the system is net autotrophic with a Net Community Production (NCP) of 1.6 mol C m⁻² year⁻¹. This NCP corresponds to 20% of the GPP and is exported to the anoxic layer. In order to model Particulate Organic Matter (POM) fluxes to the bottom and hydrogen sulfide profiles in agreement with in situ observations, we have to consider that the degradation of POM in anoxic conditions is less efficient that in oxygenated waters as it has often been observed (see discussion in Hedges et al., 1999). The vertical POM profile produced by the model can be fitted to the classic power function describing the oceanic carbon rate (C_R=Z^−α) using an attenuation coefficient α of 0.36 which is the value proposed for another anoxic environment (i.e. the Mexico Margin) by Devol and Hartnett (2001). Due to the lower efficiency of detritus degradation in anoxic conditions and to the aggregation of particles that enhanced the sinking, an important part of the export to the anoxic layer (i.e. 33%, 0.52 mol C m⁻² year⁻¹) escapes remineralization in the water column and reaches the sediments. Therefore, sediments are active sites of sulfide production contributing to 26% of the total sulfide production.In the upper layer, the oxygen dynamics is mainly governed by photosynthesis and respiration processes as well as by air-sea exchanges. ?71% of the oxygen produced by phytoplankton (photosynthesis+nitrate reduction) is lost through respiration, ?21% by outgasing to the atmosphere, ?5% through nitrification and only ?2% in the oxidation of reduced components (e.g. Mn²⁺, Fe²⁺, H₂S).The model estimates the amount of nitrogen lost through denitrification at 307 mmol N m⁻² year⁻¹ that can be partitioned into a loss of ?55% through the use of nitrate for the oxidation of detritus in low oxygen conditions, ?40% in the ANAMMOX process and the remaining ?5% in the oxidation of reduced substances by nitrate.In agreement with data analysis performed on long time series collected since the 1960s (Konovalov and Murray, 2001), the sulfide and nitrogen budgets established for the anoxic layer are not balanced in response to the enhanced particle fluxes induced by eutrophication: the NH₄ and H₂S concentrations increase.     

Modeling fecundity in birds: Conceptual overview, current models, and considerations for future developments

Fecundity is fundamental to the fitness, population dynamics, conservation, and management of birds. For all the efforts made to measure fecundity or its surrogates over the past century of avian research, it is still mismeasured, misrepresented, and misunderstood. Fundamentally, these problems arise because of partial observability of underlying processes such as renesting, multiple brooding, and temporary emigration. Over the last several decades, various analytical approaches have been developed to estimate fecundity from incomplete and biased data. These, include scalar arithmetic formulae, partial differential equations, individual-based simulations, and Markov chain methodology. In this paper, we: (1) identify component processes of avian reproduction; (2) review existing methods for modeling fecundity; (3) place these diverse models under a common conceptual framework; (4) describe the parameterization, validation, and limitations of such models; and (5) point out future considerations and challenges in the application of fecundity models. We hope this synthesis of existing literature will help direct researchers toward the most appropriate methods to assess avian reproductive success for answering questions in evolutionary ecology, natural history, population dynamics, reproductive toxicology, and management.     

Modelling heterogeneity in the recoveries of marked animal populations with covariates of individual animals, groups of animals or recovery time

A general framework is developed for modelling rates of survival and recovery of marked animal populations in terms of auxiliary information collected at the time of marking. The framework may be used to estimate differences in survival or recovery among individual animals, groups of animals, and recovery times. Analyses of the recoveries of tagged fish and banded bird populations are used to illustrate the specification and selection of various models.