Model selection criteria for overdispersed data and their application to the characterization of a host-parasite relationship

In the statistical modeling of a biological or ecological phenomenon, selecting an optimal model among a collection of candidates is a critical issue. To identify an optimal candidate model, a number of model selection criteria have been developed and investigated based on estimating Kullback’s (Information theory and statistics. Dover, Mineola, 1968) directed or symmetric divergence. Criteria that target the directed divergence include the Akaike (2nd international symposium on information theory. Akadémia Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary, pp 267–281, 1973, IEEE Trans Autom Control AC 19:716–723, 1974) information criterion, AIC, and the “corrected” Akaike information criterion (Hurvich and Tsai in Biometrika 76:297–307, 1989), AICc; criteria that target the symmetric divergence include the Kullback information criterion, KIC, and the “corrected” Kullback information criterion, KICc (Cavanaugh in Stat Probab Lett 42:333–343, 1999; Aust N Z J Stat 46:257–274, 2004). For overdispersed count data, simple modifications of AIC and AICc have been increasingly utilized: specifically, the quasi Akaike information criterion, QAIC, and its corrected version, QAICc (Lebreton et al. in Ecol Monogr 62(1):67–118 1992). In this paper, we propose analogues of QAIC and QAICc based on estimating the symmetric as opposed to the directed divergence: QKIC and QKICc. We evaluate the selection performance of AIC, AICc, QAIC, QAICc, KIC, KICc, QKIC, and QKICc in a simulation study, and illustrate their practical utility in an ecological application. In our application, we use the criteria to formulate statistical models of the tick (Dermacentor variabilis) load on a white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) in northern Missouri.     

Using surface drifter observations to measure tidal vortices and relative diffusion at Aransas Pass,Texas

Tidal vortices play an important role in the flushing of coastal regions. At the mouth of a tidal inlet, the input of circulation by the ebb tide may force the formation of a starting-jet dipole vortex. The continuous ebb jet current also creates a periodic sequence of secondary vortices shed from the inlet mouth. In each case, these tidal vortices have a shallow aspect ratio, with a lateral extent much greater than the water depth. These shallow vortices affect the transport of passive tracers, such as nutrients and sediment from the estuary to the ocean and vice versa. Field observation of tidal vortices primarily relies on ensemble averaging over several vortex events that are repeatable in space and can be sampled by a fixed Eulerian measurement grid. This paper presents an adaptive approach for locating and measuring within tidal vortices that propagate offshore near inlets and advect along variable trajectories set by the wind-driven currents. A field experiment was conducted at Aransas Pass, Texas to measure these large-scale vortices. Locations of the vortices produced during ebb tide were determined using near real-time updates from surface drifters deployed near or within the inlet during ebb tide, and the paths of towed acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) transects were selected by analysis of the drifter observations. This method allowed ADCP transects to be collected within ebb generated tidal vortices, and the paths of the drifters indicated the presence of both the starting-jet dipole and the secondary vortices of the unstable ebb tidal jet. Drifter trajectories were also used to estimate the size of each observed vortex as well as the statistics of relative diffusion offshore of Aransas Pass. The field data confirmed the starting-jet spin-up time (time until the vortex dipole begins to propagate offshore) measured in the laboratory by Bryant et al. [6] and that the Strouhal condition of \(St=0.2\) predicts the shedding of secondary vortices from the inlet mouth. The size of the rotational core of the vortex is also shown to be approximated physically by the inlet width or by \(0.02UT\) , where U is the maximum velocity through the inlet channel and T is the tidal period, and confirms results found in laboratory experiments by Nicolau del Roure et al. [23]. Additionally, the scale of diffusion was approximately 1–15 km and the apparent diffusivity was between 2–130  \(m^2/s\) following Richardsons law.     

Functional ANOVA starting from discrete data: an application to air quality data

A nonparametric functional approach is proposed to compare the mean functions of $k$ k samples of curves. In practice, curves data are usually collected in a discrete form and hence they must be pre-processed to use purely functional techniques. However, in the context of $k$ k -sample tests, the pre-processing step can have effects in terms of power reduction. Hall and Van Keilegom (Stat Sin 17:1511–1531, 2007) proposed a methodology to minimizing these effects in the context of tests for the equality of two distribution functions. Their procedure is here extended to the case of $k$ k -sample hypothesis tests. The asymptotic validity of the procedure is established and its finite sample performance is analyzed through Monte Carlo experiments. As an illustration, the method is applied to air quality data collected from several monitoring stations placed at different geographical locations at the center of Spain.     

Waves and turbulence in katabatic winds

The measurements taken during the Vertical Transport and Mixing Experiment (VTMX, October, 2000) on a northeastern slope of Salt Lake Valley, Utah, were used to calculate the statistics of velocity fluctuations in a katabatic gravity current in the absence of synoptic forcing. The data from ultrasonic anemometer-thermometers placed at elevations 4.5 and 13.9 m were used. The contributions of small-scale turbulence and waves were isolated by applying a high-pass digital (Elliptical) filter, whereupon the filtered quantities were identified as small-scale turbulence and the rest as internal gravity waves. Internal waves were found to play a role not only at canonical large gradient Richardson numbers $(\overline{\hbox {Ri}_\mathrm{g} } >1)$ , but sometimes at smaller values $(0.1 < \overline{\hbox {Ri}_\mathrm{g}}<1)$ , in contrast to typical observations in flat-terrain stable boundary layers. This may be attributed, at least partly, to (critical) internal waves on the slope, identified by Princevac et al. [1], which degenerate into turbulence and help maintain an active internal wave field. The applicability of both Monin-Obukhov (MO) similarity theory and local scaling to filtered and unfiltered data was tested by analyzing rms velocity fluctuations as a function of the stability parameter z/L, where L is the Obukhov length and z the height above the ground. For weaker stabilities, $\hbox {z/L}<1$ , the MO similarity and local scaling were valid for both filtered and unfiltered data. Conversely, when $\hbox {z/L}>1$ , the use of both scaling types is questionable, although filtered data showed a tendency to follow local scaling. A relationship between z/L and $\overline{\hbox {Ri}_\mathrm{g} }$ was identified. Eddy diffusivities of momentum $\hbox {K}_\mathrm{M}$ and heat $\hbox {K}_\mathrm{H}$ were dependent on wave activities, notably when $\overline{\hbox {Ri}_\mathrm{g} } > 1$ . The ratio $\hbox {K}_{\mathrm{H}}/\hbox {K}_{\mathrm{M}}$ dropped well below unity at high $\overline{\hbox {Ri}_\mathrm{g} }$ , in consonance with previous laboratory stratified shear layer measurements as well as other field observations.     

Der Einsatz von Pflanzentests bei der Sedimentbewertung

Background and aim Aquatic organisms of the three trophic levels (producers, consumers, reducers) have been used for a long time for ecotoxicological assessments of water quality (HABAB 2000; HABAK 1999). In biotest systems that have become established standards, algae, daphnia, and luminescent bacteria as test organisms are often used so far. However, comparative studies have shown that algae are not sufficiently sensitive to all phytotoxic agents and thus cannot be the exclusive indicator organism of any toxic effects on autotrophic life. Moreover, the EU Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD 2000) sets macrobenthos, fish, phytoplankton, and macrophytes equally side by side as indicators of the status of waters. Nevertheless, biotest systems relying on higher plants have been rarely used in assessments of aquatic sediments so far. Against this background, the aquatic duckweed test (DIN EN ISO 20079) was developed and standardized, and a sediment contact test was developed with Myriophyllum aquaticum (Feiler et al. 2004). The latter was subject of a joint research project of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF-Verbundprojekt “SeKT”) that examined and compared several sediment contact tests (Feiler et al. 2005). Compared to tests with algae, a biotest using macrophytes has the advantage to be more representative of higher plants, since target organism and test organism are closer related in terms of evolutionary history. The present study demonstrates that the application of biotests with higher plants in analyses of contaminated sediments yields valuable results that may contribute to a concept for the integrative assessment of water quality.     

n-Octyl esters of long-chain fatty acids are not anthropogenic pollution markers

n-Octyl esters of higher fatty acids have been reported as markers of urban wastewater in sediments, polychaeta, fish, crabs and oysters (Chaler et al. in J Chromatogr A 1046:203–210, 2004)). However, up to date, there were no subsequent studies to confirm this claim. Likewise, Chaler and co-workers did not consider that the mentioned compounds might occur naturally in the environment. Here we found seven n-octyl straight-chain alkanoates, from C-20 to C-26, in the wild-growing plant Heracleum sphondylium L., Apiaceae, from 14 locations. Those plant metabolites were unambiguously identified by gas chromatographic co-injection of the synthesized esters with the inflorescence washings. All identified octyl esters represent new natural compounds, except for octyl docosanoate. Since we have demonstrated that n-octyl esters occur naturally, and in abundance, they cannot be recognized any longer as wastewater markers. Additionally, here we provide evidences that the compounds identified by Chaler et al. (2004) are in fact 2-ethylhexyl esters, mistakenly identified as n-octyl esters.     

The wave-induced solute flux from submerged sediment

The issue of the transport of dissolved nutrients and contaminants between the sediment in the bottom of a lake or reservoir and the body of water above it is an important one for many reasons. In particular the biological and chemical condition of the body of water is intricately linked to these mass transport processes. As the review by Boudreau (Rev Geophys 38(3):389–416, 2000) clearly demonstrates those transport processes are very complex involving mechanisms as diverse as the wave-induced flux between the sediment and the overlying water and the effect of burrowing animals on the transport within the sediment as well as basic diffusion mechanisms. The present paper focuses on one facet of these transport processes; we re-examine the balance of diffusion and wave-induced advection and demonstrate that the wave-induced flux of a solute from submerged sediment is not necessarily purely diffusive as suggested by Harrison et al. (J Geophys Res 88:7617–7622, 1983) but can be dominated by a mean or time-averaged flux induced by the advective fluid motion into and out of the sediment caused by the fluctuating pressure waves associated with wave motion. Indeed along the subtidal shoreline where the fluctuating bottom pressures are greatest, wave-induced advection will dominate the mean, time-averaged transport of solute into or out of the sediment as suggested in the work of Riedl et al. (Mar Biol 13:210–221, 1972). However, the present calculations also indicate that this advective flux decreases rapidly with increasing depth so that further away from the shoreline the advective flux becomes negligible relative to the diffusive flux and therefore the latter dominates in deeper water.     

Etude expérimentale de la ponte chez trois espèces de copépodes pélagiques (Centropages typicus,Acartia clausi et Temora stylifera)

Egg-laying of 3 common copepod species from the Gulf of Marseilles (Centropages typicus Kröyer, Acatia clausi Giesbrecht, Temora stylifera Dana) has been studied under various trophic conditions, at different periods of the year. The role of phytoplankton abundance in the induction and importance of egg-laying is indicated. The specific quality of the algal suspension used for feeding affected also fertility. A seasonal variation in the importance of egg-laying is established. Some observations are made on egg deposition and development.     

Passive scalar roughness lengths for atmospheric boundary layer flow over complex, fractal topographies

When modeling atmospheric boundary layer flow over rough landscapes, surface fluxes of flow quantities (momentum, temperature, etc.) can be described with equilibrium logarithmic law expressions, all of which require specification of a roughness length that is, physically, the elevation at which the flow quantity equals its surface value. In high Reynolds number flows, such as the atmospheric boundary layer, inertial forces associated with turbulent eddy motions are responsible for surface momentum fluxes (form, or pressure drag). Surface scalar fluxes, on the other hand, occur exclusively via diffusion in the immediate vicinity of the topography—the interfacial region—before being advected by turbulent eddy motions into the bulk of the flow. Owing to this difference in surface transfer mechanism, the passive scalar roughness length, $z_{0S}$ , is known to be less than the momentum roughness length, $z_0$ . In this work, classical relations are used to specify $z_{0S}$ during large-eddy simulation of atmospheric boundary layer flow over aerodynamically rough, synthetic, fractal topographies which exhibit power-law height energy spectrum, $E_h (k) \sim k^{\beta _s}$ , where $\beta _s$ is a (predefined) spectral exponent. These topographies are convenient since they resemble natural landscapes and $\beta _s$ can be varied to change the topography’s aerodynamic roughness (the study considers a suite of topographies with $-2.4 \le \beta _s \le -1.2$ , where $-2.4$ and $-1.2$ are the “most smooth” and “most rough” cases, respectively, corresponding with roughness Reynolds number, $Re_0 \approx 10$ and $300$ ). It is often assumed that $z_{0S}/z_{0} \approx 10^{-1}$ for all $Re_0$ . But results from this work show that the roughness length ratio, $z_{0S}/z_{0}$ , depends strongly on $Re_0$ , ranging between $10^{-3}$ and $10^{-1}$ .     

Data depth for the uniform distribution

Given a set $X$ of $k$ points and a point $z$ in the $n$ -dimensional euclidean space, the Tukey depth of $z$ with respect to $X$ , is defined as $m/k$ , where $m$ is the minimum integer such that $z$ is not in the convex hull of some set of $k-m$ points of $X$ . If $z$ belongs to the closed region $B$ delimited by an ellipsoid, define the continuous depth of $z$ with respect to $B$ as the quotient $V(z)/\text{ Vol }(B)$ , where $V(z)$ is the minimum volume of the intersection of $B$ with the halfspaces defined by any hyperplane passing through $z$ , and $\text{ Vol }(B)$ is the volume of $B$ . We consider $z$ a random variable and prove that, if $z$ is uniformly distributed in $B$ , the continuous depth of $z$ with respect to $B$ has expected value $1/2^{n+1}$ . This result implies that if $z$ and $X$ are uniformly distributed in $B$ , the expected value of Tukey depth of $z$ with respect to $X$ converges to $1/2^{n+1}$ as the number of points $k$ goes to infinity. These findings have applications in ecology, namely within the niche theory, where it is useful to explore and characterize the distribution of points inside species niche.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals for adaptive cluster sampling design based on Horvitz–Thompson type estimators

Perez and Pontius (J Stat Comput Simul 76:755–764, 2006) introduced several bootstrap methods under adaptive cluster sampling using a Horvitz–Thompson type estimator. Using a simulation study, they showed that their proposed methods provide confidence intervals with highly understated coverage rates. In this article, we first show that their bootstrap methods provide biased bootstrap estimates. We then define two bootstrap methods, based on the method of Gross (Proceeding of the survey research methods section. American Statistical Association, Alexandria, VA, pp 181–184, 1980) and Bootstrap With Replacement, that provide unbiased bootstrap estimates of the population mean with bootstrap variances matching the corresponding unbiased variance estimator. Using a simulation study, we show that the bootstrap confidence intervals based on our proposed methods have better performance than those based on available bootstrap methods, in the sense of having coverage proportion closer to the nominal coverage level. We also compare the proposed intervals to empirical likelihood based intervals in small samples.     

A general solution of Benjamin-type gravity current in a channel of non-rectangular cross-section

We consider the steady-state propagation of a high-Reynolds-number gravity current in a horizontal channel along the horizontal coordinate x. The bottom and top of the channel are at z =?0, H, and the cross-section is given by the quite general form ?f ₁(z) ≤?y ≤?f ₂(z) for 0 ≤?z ≤?H, where f _1,2 are piecewise continuous functions and f ₁ +?f ₂ >?0 for ${z \in(0,H)}$ . The interface of the current is horizontal, the (maximum) thickness is h, its density is ρ _c . The reduced gravity g′ =?|ρ _c /ρ _a ? 1|g (where ${- g\hat{z}}$ is the gravity acceleration and ρ _a the density of the ambient) drives the current with speed U into the stationary ambient fluid. We show that the dimensionless Fr =?U/(g′ h)^1/2, the rate of energy dissipation (scaled with the rate of pressure work), and the dimensionless head-loss Δ/h, can be expressed by compact formulas which involve three integrals over the cross-section areas of the current and ambient. By some standard manipulations these integrals are simplified into quite simple line-integrals of the shape-function of the channel, f(z) =?f ₁(z) +?f ₂(z), and of z f(z). This theory applies to Boussinesq and non-Boussinesq currents of “heavy” (bottom) and “light” (top) type. The classical results of Benjamin (J Fluid Mech 31:209–248, 1968) for a rectangular channel are fully recovered. We also recover the Fr results of Marino and Thomas (J Fluid Eng 131(5):051201, 2009) for channels of shape y =?±b z ^α (where b, α are positive constants); in addition, we consider the energy dissipation of these flows. The results provide insights into the effect of the cross-section shape on the behavior of the steady-state current, in quite general cases, for both heavy-into-light and light-into-heavy fluid systems, Boussinesq and non-Boussinesq. In particular, we show that a very deep current displays ${Fr = \sqrt{2}}$ , and is dissipative; the value of Fr and rate of dissipation (absolute value) decrease when the thickness of the current increases. However, in general, energy considerations restrict the thickness of the current by a clear-cut condition of the form h/H ≤?a _max ?< 1.     

Partitioning of \alpha and \beta diversity using hierarchical Bayesian modeling of species distribution and abundance

Diversity partitioning is becoming widely used to decompose the total number of species recorded in an area or region \((\gamma )\) into the average number of species within samples \((\alpha )\) and the average difference in species composition \((\beta )\) among samples. Single-value metrics of \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) diversity are popular because they may be applied at multiple scales and because of their ease in computation and interpretation. Studies thus far, however, have emphasized observed diversity components or comparisons to randomized, null distributions. In addition, prediction of \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) components using environmental or spatial variables has been limited to more extensive data sets because multiple samples are required to estimate single \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) components. Lastly, observed diversity components do not incorporate variation in detection probabilities among species or samples. In this study, we used hierarchical Bayesian models of species abundances to provide predictions of \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) components in species richness and composition using environmental and spatial variables. We illustrate our approach using butterfly data collected from 26 grassland remnants to predict spatially nested patterns of \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) based on the predicted counts of butterflies. Diversity partitioning using a Bayesian hierarchical model incorporated variation in detection probabilities by butterfly species and habitat patches, and provided prediction intervals for \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) components using environmental and spatial variables.     

On the effective hydraulic conductivity and macrodispersivity for density-dependent groundwater flow

In this paper, semi-analytical expressions of the effective hydraulic conductivity ( $K^{E})$ and macrodispersivity ( $\alpha ^{E})$ for 3D steady-state density-dependent groundwater flow are derived using a stationary spectral method. Based on the derived expressions, we present the dependence of $K^{E}$ and $\alpha ^{E}$ on the density of fluid under different dispersivity and spatial correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity. The results show that the horizontal $K^{E}$ and $\alpha ^{E}$ are not affected by density-induced flow. However, due to gravitational instability of the fluid induced by density contrasts, both vertical $K^{E}$ and $\alpha ^{E}$ are found to be reduced slightly when the density factor ( $\gamma $ ) is less than 0.01, whereas significant decreases occur when $\gamma $ exceeds 0.01. Of note, the variation of $K^{E}$ and $\alpha ^{E}$ is more significant when local dispersivity is small and the correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity is large.     

On the periodicity of atmospheric von Kármán vortex streets

For over 100 years, laboratory-scale von Kármán vortex streets (VKVSs) have been one of the most studied phenomena within the field of fluid dynamics. During this period, countless publications have highlighted a number of interesting underpinnings of VKVSs; nevertheless, a universal equation for the vortex shedding frequency ( \(N\) ) has yet to be identified. In this study, we have investigated \(N\) for mesoscale atmospheric VKVSs and some of its dependencies through the use of realistic numerical simulations. We find that vortex shedding frequency associated with mountainous islands, generally demonstrates an inverse relationship to cross-stream obstacle length ( \(L\) ) at the thermal inversion height of the atmospheric boundary layer. As a secondary motive, we attempt to quantify the relationship between \(N\) and \(L\) for atmospheric VKVSs in the context of the popular Strouhal number ( \(Sr\) )–Reynolds number ( \(Re\) ) similarity theory developed through laboratory experimentation. By employing numerical simulation to document the \(Sr{-}Re\) relationship of mesoscale atmospheric VKVSs (i.e., in the extremely high \(Re\) regime) we present insight into an extended regime of the similarity theory which has been neglected in the past. In essence, we observe mesoscale VKVSs demonstrating a consistent \(Sr\) range of 0.15–0.22 while varying \(L\) (i.e, effectively varying \(Re\) ).     

Statistical modeling to assess drinking water crisis

We modify the beta distribution by adding a parameter ρ ≥ 0 to capture the urgency level with which nations address drinking water crises. In essence, the urgency parameter relates to region’s environmental or development levels. The modified version is named an urgency biased beta distribution (UBBD). Its statistical properties are considered and illustrated by analysis of the drinking water data in the World Health Organization (2011) report. The methodology of this article is applicable to similar data sets arising in ecological, engineering, medical, business, marketing, and communication, etc. studies.     

Der Lebenszyklus vonAcrosiphonia grandis (Acrosiphoniales,Chlorophyta)

Acrosiphonia granlis Kjellm, is well characterized by its long rows of intercalary fertile cells. Material obtained from Iceland proved to be very interesting by reason of its peculiar life history. The zygote develops into a codiolum-like stage, which grows directly into anAcrosiphonia thallus at an age of some 20 days without formation of swarmers. The same features have recently been demonstrated byJónsson (1967) in an Icelandic species, identified by him asAcrosiphonia sonderi. From his specimensJónsson described facultative caryogamy, ascertained by him formerly in otherAcrosiphonia species: its absence induces the above-mentioned development, giving rise to a generation of mictohaplonticAcrosiphonia. In contrast, true zygotes of “Acrosiphonia sonderi” develop into fertile codiolum cells, reproducing themselves by biflagellate swarmers. InA. grandis, facultative caryogamy has not been observed and nuclear fusion occurs in all zygotes. Codiolum stages never produced swarmers. The life history ofA. grandis represents an intermediate type between the heteromorphic cycle of species such asA. spinescens (including a true codiolumsporophyte), and the isomorphic life history ofA. arcta, where the zygote develops directly into the filamentous plant.     

Gravity currents with double stratification: a numerical and analytical investigation

We consider high-Reynolds-number Boussinesq gravity current and intrusion systems in which both the ambient and the propagating “current” are linearly stratified. The main focus is on a current of fixed volume released from a rectangular lock; the height ratio of the fluids $H$ , the stratification parameter of the ambient $S$ , and the internal stratification parameter of the current, $\sigma $ , are quite general. We perform two-dimensional Navier–Stokes simulation and compare the results with those of a previously-published one-layer shallow-water model. The results provide insights into the behavior of the system and enhance the confidence in the approximate model while also revealing its limitations. The qualitative predictions of the model are confirmed, in particular: (1) there is an initial “slumping” stage of propagation with constant speed $u_N$ , after which $u_N$ decays with time; (2) for fixed $H$ and $S$ , the increase of $\sigma $ causes a slower propagation of the current; (3) for some combinations of the parameters $H,S, \sigma $ the fluid released from the lock lacks initially (or runs out quickly of) buoyancy “driving power” in the horizontal direction, and does not propagate like a gravity current. There is also a fair quantitative agreement between the predictions of the model and the simulations concerning the spread of the current.