Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

Estimating Current and Future Groundwater Resources of the Maldives

The water resources of the atolls of the Republic of Maldives are under continual threat from climatic and anthropogenic stresses, including land surface pollution, increasing population, drought, and sea‐level rise (SLR). These threats are particularly acute for groundwater resources due to the small land surface area and low elevation of each island. In this study, the groundwater resources, in terms of freshwater lens thickness, total volume of fresh groundwater, and safe yield are estimated for the 52 most populous islands of the Maldives for current conditions and for the year 2030, with the latter accounting for projected SLR and associated shoreline recession. An algebraic model, designed in previous studies to estimate the lens thickness of atoll islands, is expanded in this study to also estimate volume of groundwater. Results indicate that average current lens thickness, groundwater volume, and per capita safe yield are approximately 4.6 m, 1,300 million liters, and 300 l/day, and that these values will decrease by approximately 10, 11, and 34%, respectively, by the year 2030. Based on results, it is demonstrated that groundwater, in terms of quantity, is a viable source of water for the islands of the Maldives both now and in coming decades, particularly for islands with large surface area and low population. Study results can provide water resource managers and government officials with valuable data for consideration in water security measures.     

Analysis of arable land loss and its impact on rural sustainability in Southern Jiangsu Province of China

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in southern Jiangsu Province have consumed a huge amount of arable land. Through comparative analysis of land cover maps derived from TM images in 1990, 2000 and 2006, we identified the trend of arable land loss. It is found that most arable land is lost to urbanization and rural settlements development. Urban settlements, rural settlements, and industrial park-mine-transport land increased, respectively, by 87 997 ha (174.65%), 81 041 ha (104.52%), and 12 692 ha (397.99%) from 1990 to 2006. Most of the source (e.g., change from) land covers are rice paddy fields and dryland. These two covers contributed to newly urbanized areas by 37.12% and 73.52% during 1990–2000, and 46.39% and 38.86% during 2000–2006. However, the loss of arable land is weakly correlated with ecological service value, per capita net income of farmers, but positively with grain yield for some counties. Most areas in the study site have a low arable land depletion rate and a high potential for sustainable development. More attention should be directed at those counties that have a high depletion rate but a low potential for sustainable development. Rural settlements should be controlled and rationalized through legislative measures to achieve harmonious development between urban and rural areas, and sustainable development for rural areas with a minimal impact on the ecoenvironment.     

Forest Insect Pest Management and Forest Management in China: An Overview

According to the Seventh National Forest Inventory (2004–2008), China’s forests cover an area of 195.45 million ha, or 20.36% of the total land area. China has the most rapidly increasing forest resources in the world. However, China is also a country with serious forest pest problems. There are more than 8,000 species of potential forest pests in China, including insects, plant diseases, rodents and lagomorphs, and hazardous plants. Among them, 300 species are considered as economically or ecologically important, and half of these are serious pests, including 86 species of insects. Forest management and utilization have a considerable influence on the stability and sustainability of forest ecosystems. At the national level, forestry policies always play a major role in forest resource management and forest health protection. In this paper, we present a comprehensive overview of both achievements and challenges in forest management and insect pest control in China. First, we summarize the current status of forest resources and their pests in China. Second, we address the theories, policies, practices and major national actions on forestry and forest insect pest management, including the Engineering Pest Management of China, the National Key Forestry Programs, the Classified Forest Management system, and the Collective Forest Tenure Reform. We analyze and discuss three representative plantations—Eucalyptus, poplar and Masson pine plantations—with respect to their insect diversity, pest problems and pest management measures.     

黑龙江垦区土地资源可持续利用研究

以黑龙江垦区土地资源利用为例，运用统计分析方法，结合土地利用变化幅度和土地利用动态度等分析指标，对黑龙江垦区土地利用现状与动态变化进行分析。在此基础上，提出了黑龙江垦区土地利用中存在的主要问题：耕地面积总量增加，但人均耕地面积下降；土地资源利用效益有待提高；土地质量逐年下降，生态环境趋于恶化；部分农场场址道路建设用地过大，土地浪费现象严重；土地后备资源日益匮乏，开发整理复垦难度大等5个方面，并提出了相关的对策建议。     

High-Biomass Forests of the Pacific Northwest: Who Manages Them and How Much is Protected?

To examine ownership and protection status of forests with high-biomass stores (>200 Mg/ha) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United States, we used the latest versions of publicly available datasets. Overlay, aggregation, and GIS-based computation of forest area in broad biomass classes in the PNW showed that the National Forests contained the largest area of high-biomass forests (48.4 % of regional total), but the area of high-biomass forest on private lands was important as well (22.8 %). Between 2000 and 2008, the loss of high-biomass forests to fire on the National Forests was 7.6 % (236,000 ha), while the loss of high-biomass forest to logging on private lands (364,000 ha) exceeded the losses to fire across all ownerships. Many remaining high-biomass forest stands are vulnerable to future harvest as only 20 % are strictly protected from logging, while 26 % are not protected at all. The level of protection for high-biomass forests varies by state, for example, 31 % of all high-biomass federal forests in Washington are in high-protection status compared to only 9 % in Oregon. Across the conterminous US, high-biomass forest covers <3 % of all forest land and the PNW region holds 56.8 % of this area or 5.87 million ha. Forests with high-biomass stores are important to document and monitor as they are scarce, often threatened by harvest and development, and their disturbance including timber harvest results in net C losses to the atmosphere that can take a new generation of trees many decades or centuries to offset.     

Impacts of Urbanization and Intensification of Agriculture on Transboundary Aquifers: A Case Study

The objectives were to (1) delineate the complex set of rules governing the fate and transfer of water rights as agricultural land is urbanized in Texas and New Mexico in the United States and Chihuahua in Mexico and (2) estimate the change in water use as a result of such urbanization. Important additional determinants of water use in the region include intensification of agriculture and the hydroschizophrenic policy framework. We conducted interviews with key informants to identify the possible outcomes for changes in water rights as land is urbanized. We constructed decision trees for each of the three jurisdictions, Chihuahua, Texas, and New Mexico, that identified the possible outcomes from urbanization. For each of the possible outcomes in the decision tree, we estimated a range of potential water use outcomes and the most likely water use outcome on a per unit of land area basis. Results show that urbanization of agricultural land has almost no impact on the aggregate demand for or use of surface water. However, the impacts of urbanization on groundwater use vary considerably over the region from Texas to New Mexico to Chihuahua. In New Mexico and Chihuahua where groundwater rights can be leased or sold to other users, the likely impact is a net increase in groundwater use as land is urbanized, ranging from 0 to 3,000 m³/ha in New Mexico and averaging 3,000 m³/ha or more in Chihuahua. In Texas, there is a net benefit in groundwater savings, but those savings are subject to being offset by increased groundwater pumping to meet the needs of expanding pecan production. The net result is continued groundwater depletion, threatening the life of the transboundary aquifers, the Hueco Bolson and the Mesilla Bolson, in the Middle Rio Grande basin (defined as the part of the basin between Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico to the confluence of the river with the Rio Conchos from Mexico).     

Carbon sequestration potential in reclaimed mine sites in seven east-central states

Terrestrial systems represent a significant potential carbon (C) sink to help mitigate or offset greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 3.2 Mha are permitted for mining activities in the United States, which are required to be reclaimed with vegetative cover. While site-specific studies have assessed C accumulation on reclaimed mine sites, regional analyses to estimate potential C increases have not been conducted. For this analysis, potential C sequestration is analyzed on 567,000 ha of mine land in a seven-state region reclaimed to cropland, pasture, or forest. Carbon accumulation is estimated for cropland, pasture, and forest soils, forest litter layer, and aboveground biomass by estimating average annual rates of C accumulation from site-specific and general C sequestration studies. The average annual rate of C storage is highest when mine land is reclaimed to forest, where the potential sequestration is 0.7 to 2.2 Tg yr(-1). The C from soils, litter layer, and biomass from mine lands reclaimed to forest represents 0.3 to 1.0% of the 1990 CO2 emissions from the study region (919 Tg CO2). To achieve the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goal of 7% below the 1990 level as proposed by the Kyoto Treaty requires CO2 emissions in the study area to be reduced by just over 64 Tg CO2. The potential carbon storage in mine sites reclaimed to forest could account for 4 to 12.5% of these required reductions.     

Achieving Conservation Goals in Managed Forests of the Southeastern Coastal Plain

Managed forests are a primary land use within the Coastal Plain of the southern United States. These forests are generally managed under standards, guidelines, or regulations to conserve ecosystem functions and services. Economic value of commercial forests provides incentives for landowners to maintain forests rather than convert them to other uses that have substantially reduced environmental benefits. In this review, we describe the historical context of commercial forest management in the southern United States Coastal Plain, describe how working forests are managed today, and examine relationships between commercial forest management and maintenance of functional aquatic and wetland systems and conservation of biological diversity. Significant challenges for the region include increasing human population and urbanization and concomitant changes in forest area and structure, invasive species, and increased interest in forest biomass as an energy feedstock. Research needs include better information about management of rare species and communities and quantification of relationships between ecosystem attributes and forest management, including biomass production and harvest. Incentives and better information may help commercial forest managers in the Coastal Plain more efficiently contribute to landscape-scale conservation goals.     

Relationships Between Major Ownerships, Forest Aboveground Biomass Distributions, and Landscape Dynamics in the New England Region of USA

This study utilizes remote sensing derived forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates and ownership information obtained from the Protected Areas Database (PAD), combining landscape analyses and GIS techniques to demonstrate how different ownerships (public, regulated private, and other private) relate to the spatial distribution of AGB in New England states of the USA. “Regulated private” lands were dominated by lands in Maine covered by a Land Use Regulatory Commission. The AGB means between all pairs of the identified ownership categories were significantly different (P < 0.05). Mean AGB observed in public lands (156 Mg/ha) was 43% higher than that in regulated private lands (109 Mg/ha), or 30% higher than that of private lands as a whole. Seventy-seven percent of the regional forests (or about 9,300 km²) with AGB >200 Mg/ha were located outside the area designated in the PAD and concentrated in western MA, southern VT, southwestern NH, and northwestern CT. While relatively unfragmented and high-AGB forests (>200 Mg/ha) accounted for about 8% of total forested land, they were unevenly proportioned among the three major ownership groups across the region: 19.6% of the public land, 0.8% of the regulated private land, and 11.0% of the other private land. Mean disturbance rates (in absolute value) between 1992 and 2001 were 16, 66, and 19 percent, respectively, on public, regulated private, and other private land. This indicates that management practices from different ownerships have a strong impact on dynamic changes of landscape structures and AGB distributions. Our results may provide insight information for policy makers on issues regarding forest carbon management, conservation biology, and biodiversity studies at regional level.     

Hot Spots of Perforated Forest in the Eastern United States

National assessments of forest fragmentation satisfy international biodiversity conventions, but they do not identify specific places where ecological impacts are likely. In this article, we identify geographic concentrations (hot spots) of forest located near holes in otherwise intact forest canopies (perforated forest) in the eastern United States, and we describe the proximate causes in terms of the nonforest land-cover types contained in those hot spots. Perforated forest, defined as a 0.09-ha unit of forest that is located at the center of a 7.29-ha neighborhood containing 60–99% forest with relatively low connectivity, was mapped over the eastern United States by using land-cover maps with roads superimposed. Statistically significant (P < 0.001) hot spots of high perforation rate (perforated area per unit area of forest) were then located by using a spatial scan statistic. Hot spots were widely distributed and covered 20.4% of the total area of the 10 ecological provinces examined, but 50.1% of the total hot-spot area was concentrated in only two provinces. In the central part of the study area, more than 90% of the forest edge in hot spots was attributed to anthropogenic land-cover types, whereas in the northern and southern parts it was more often associated with seminatural land cover such as herbaceous wetlands.     

Using Canonical Correlation Analysis to Identify Environmental Attitude Groups: Considerations for National Forest Planning in the Southwestern U.S.

As public land management agencies pursue region-specific resource management plans, with meaningful consideration of public attitudes and values, there is a need to characterize the complex mix of environmental attitudes in a diverse population. The contribution of this investigation is to make use of a unique household, mail/internet survey data set collected in 2007 in the Southwestern United States (Region 3 of the U.S. Forest Service). With over 5,800 survey responses to a set of 25 Public Land Value statements, canonical correlation analysis is able to identify 7 statistically distinct environmental attitudinal groups. We also examine the effect of expected changes in regional demographics on overall environmental attitudes, which may help guide in the development of socially acceptable long-term forest management policies. Results show significant support for conservationist management policies and passive environmental values, as well as a greater role for stakeholder groups in generating consensus for current and future forest management policies.     

Changes in wetlands on nonfederal rural land of the conterminous United States from 1982 to 1987

Recent wetland area trends were estimated from the National Resources Inventory (NRI) for nonfederal rural lands for the period 1982–1987. NRI-based estimates of wetland area for states comprising the conterminous United States were highly correlated with estimates made by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and with estimates of coastal salt marsh wetlands made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Net wetland area declined by 1.1% (≈363,200 ha) during the five-year study period. Conversion to open water, primarily caused by natural flooding in western inland basins, was responsible for altering extensive wetland areas (≈171,400 ha). Of the human-induced wetland conversions, urban and built-up land was responsible for 48% of the wetland loss, while agricultural development was indicated in 37% of the converted wetland area. A decrease in rural land, and increases in both population, and urban and built-up land were associated with wetland loss among states. Potential reasons for wetland loss were different in 20 coastal states than in 28 inland states. Proportionately, wetland loss due to development was three times greater in coastal states than inland states, while agriculturally induced wetland losses were similar in both groups. The proportionate declines of forested vs nonforested wetlands were not significantly different among states.     

Land use change and population growth in the Morobe Province of Papua New Guinea between 1975 and 2000

The relation between human population growth and land use change is much debated. Here we present a case study from Papua New Guinea where the population has increased from 2.3 million in 1975 to 5.2 million in 2000. Since 85% of the population relies on subsistence agriculture, population growth affects agricultural land use. We assessed land use change in the Morobe province (33,933 km2) using topographic maps of 1975 and Landsat TM images of 1990 and 2000. Between 1975 and 2000, agricultural land use increased by 58% and population grew by 99%. Most new agricultural land was taken from primary forest and the forest area decreased from 9.8 ha person(-1) in 1975 to 4.4 ha person(-1) in 2000. Total population change and total land use change were strongly correlated. Most of the agricultural land use change occurred on Inceptisols in areas with high rainfall (>2500 mm year(-1)) on moderate to very steep slopes (10-56%). Agricultural land use changes in logged-over areas were in the vicinity of populated places (villages), and in close proximity to road access. There was considerable variation between the districts but districts with higher population growth also had larger increases in agricultural areas. It is concluded that in the absence of improved farming systems the current trend of increased agriculture with rapid population growth is likely to continue.     

Wood bison population recovery and forage availability in northwestern Canada

Forage availability was assessed to determine sustainable stocking rates for eight broadly defined vegetation types (Treed Uplands, Treed Lowlands, Mixed Tall Shrub/Sedge, Closed-canopied Willow, and Open-canopied Willow, Meadow, Wetland Grass, Wetland Sedge) for use by wood bison (Bison bison athabascae), a threatened subspecies, in the Canadian boreal forest of northern Alberta. Clip plots (n=108) were used to sample peak availability of herbs and current annual growth of Salix spp. in late summer. Graminoid wetlands dominated by Carex atherodes, Carex aquatilis, Carex utriculata, Scolochloa festucacea, or Calamagrostis stricta produced 1975-4575 kg ha(-1) of fair to good quality forage, whereas treed stands produced < 250 kg ha(-1) of forb-dominated forage (>85% content), which was below a published 25% foraging efficiency threshold of 263 kg ha(-1) for bison. Upland forests that dominate the region produced < or = 1 animal unit day (AUD) of forage per hectare in summer. Most forest understory plants were of poor forage value, suggesting the potential sustainable stocking rate of such areas was actually < or = 0.3 AUD ha(-1), with even lower rates during winter due to snow cover. Herbaceous wetlands contained approximately 78 AUD ha(-1) of forage, but were considered largely unavailable in summer because of flooding and soft organic soils that make access difficult. Conversion of prime foraging habitat to agricultural land, forest expansion due to fire control, and a warmer and wetter climatic regime after the mid-1900s likely contributed to a regional reduction in carrying capacity. It is hypothesized that substantial recovery of the wood bison population toward historical levels will be constrained in northern Alberta by the availability of summer forage, and the limited extent of graminoid wetlands that provide winter foraging habitat.     

Spatial and temporal trends of nitrate,chloride, and bromide concentration in an alluvial aquifer,North‐Central Texas,USA

The Seymour aquifer consists of unconfined outcrops of sand and gravel in a semiarid, agricultural region of north‐central Texas in the United States of America. Most water samples collected from the aquifer in 2015 had nitrate concentrations above the drinking water standard of 44.3 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Generally, areas with high nitrate concentration in 2010 remained high in 2015, although the median dropped by 3.9 mg/L. The largest decreases in nitrate concentration—up to 97 mg/L (60%)—were observed in wells with depths less than the median of 13.1 meters (m). However, other wells, including depths above and below the median, showed increases in nitrate concentration of up to 40 mg/L (42%). In 2015, chloride concentrations in six wells exceeded the secondary contaminant level of 250 mg/L, and one well had a chloride concentration of 1,810 mg/L. Past and ongoing agricultural practices, including cultivation of native grassland, application of fertilizer, and irrigation with nitrate‐contaminated groundwater, help sustain overall high nitrate concentrations within the aquifer. Local conditions governing nitrogen inputs and dilution result in significant improvement or worsening of the nitrate problem over relatively short timeframes. The pumping of groundwater from the aquifer may facilitate mixing with groundwater of increased salinity that has been affected by the dissolution of evaporites in underlying Permian bedrock.     

Estimating Forest Ecosystem Evapotranspiration at Multiple Temporal Scales With a Dimension Analysis Approach1

Abstract:  It is critical that evapotranspiration (ET) be quantified accurately so that scientists can evaluate the effects of land management and global change on water availability, streamflow, nutrient and sediment loading, and ecosystem productivity in watersheds. The objective of this study was to derive a new semi‐empirical ET modeled using a dimension analysis method that could be used to estimate forest ET effectively at multiple temporal scales. The model developed describes ET as a function of water availability for evaporation and transpiration, potential ET demand, air humidity, and land surface characteristics. The model was tested with long‐term hydrometeorological data from five research sites with distinct forest hydrology in the United States and China. Averaged simulation error for daily ET was within 0.5 mm/day. The annual ET at each of the five study sites were within 7% of measured values. Results suggest that the model can accurately capture the temporal dynamics of ET in forest ecosystems at daily, monthly, and annual scales. The model is climate‐driven and is sensitive to topography and vegetation characteristics and thus has potential to be used to examine the compounding hydrologic responses to land cover and climate changes at multiple temporal scales.     

Landscape Trends in Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States Ecoregions

Landscape pattern and composition metrics are potential indicators for broad-scale monitoring of change and for relating change to human and ecological processes. We used a probability sample of 20-km × 20-km sampling blocks to characterize landscape composition and pattern in five US ecoregions: the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain, Southeastern Plains, Northern Piedmont, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge Mountains. Land use/land cover (LULC) data for five dates between 1972 and 2000 were obtained for each sample block. Analyses focused on quantifying trends in selected landscape pattern metrics by ecoregion and comparing trends in land cover proportions and pattern metrics among ecoregions. Repeated measures analysis of the landscape pattern documented a statistically significant trend in all five ecoregions towards a more fine-grained landscape from the early 1970s through 2000. The ecologically important forest cover class also became more fine-grained with time (i.e., more numerous and smaller forest patches). Trends in LULC, forest edge, and forest percent like adjacencies differed among ecoregions. These results suggest that ecoregions provide a geographically coherent way to regionalize the story of national land use and land cover change in the United States. This study provides new information on LULC change in the southeast United States. Previous studies of the region from the 1930s to the 1980s showed a decrease in landscape fragmentation and an increase in percent forest, while this study showed an increase in forest fragmentation and a loss of forest cover.     

Metal capital sustaining a North American city: Iron and copper in New Haven, CT

A detailed inventory shows that an average resident of the City of New Haven depends on a per capita capital stock of 9200 kg/c of iron and 144 kg/c of copper in the city infrastructure, buildings, transportation systems, and equipment. Of the iron stock 28% is in items such as rail cars and ships in ocean trade not permanently within the city, and 22% is devoted to receiving and delivering oil fuel to the city and its surrounding communities. Copper is principally used in the distribution of electric power and in water piping within buildings. The city's 9200 kg/c of iron stock-in-use is less than the 13,000 kg/c national average due to New Haven's lack of heavy industry and relatively small number of large buildings. The 144 kg/c of copper stock-in-use is only 58% of the overall value for the United States, but is comparable to that in cities such as Stockholm, Sweden. Attainment of a level of iron and copper services with contemporary technology in less developed countries to the level enjoyed in New Haven would require consumption of the presently identified world copper resources.     

Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600-2100

This paper reviews the effects of past forest management on carbon stocks in the United States, and the challenges for managing forest carbon resources in the 21st century. Forests in the United States were in approximate carbon balance with the atmosphere from 1600-1800. Utilization and land clearing caused a large pulse of forest carbon emissions during the 19th century, followed by regrowth and net forest carbon sequestration in the 20th century. Recent data and knowledge of the general behavior of forests after disturbance suggest that the rate of forest carbon sequestration is declining. A goal of an additional 100 to 200 Tg C/yr of forest carbon sequestration is achievable, but would require investment in inventory and monitoring, development of technology and practices, and assistance for land managers.