Environmental change in the mid-Boteti area of north-central Botswana: Biophysical processes and human perceptions

Increased interest in environmental change issues has led researchers to consider more integrated approaches to change dynamics. This paper examines change in terms of land degradation in north-central Botswana from both biophysical and human perspectives. Although seasonal and periodic droughts were prevalent, analysis of rainfall data over the past 70 years revealed no downward trend. However, indicators of declining productivity such as soil erosion, loss of vegetation cover, and a declining groundwater table were amply evident. The GIS analysis of remotely sensed data has shown that complete vegetation recovery after drought is not taking place, particularly in the south-central part of the study area. These areas contained the highest human and livestock population densities. The local people acknowledged facing increasing resource depletion and indicated drought as the main cause. Pressures on available resources, particularly during drought periods, appeared to have impeded the regenerative capacity of the natural vegetation cover, thereby inducing land degradation. This situation may not easily be rectified because of widespread poverty and inappropriate local perceptions of the solutions. Both of these hinder the adoption of sustainable land management.     

Projecting Large-Scale Area Changes in Land Use and Land Cover for Terrestrial Carbon Analyses

One of the largest changes in US forest type areas over the last half-century has involved pine types in the South. The area of planted pine has increased more than 10-fold since 1950, mostly on private lands. Private landowners have responded to market incentives and government programs, including subsidized afforestation on marginal agricultural land. Timber harvest is a crucial disturbance affecting planted pine area, as other forest types are converted to planted pine after harvest. Conversely, however, many harvested pine plantations revert to other forest types, mainly due to passive regeneration behavior on nonindustrial private timberlands. We model land use and land cover changes as a basis for projecting future changes in planted pine area, to aid policy analysts concerned with mitigation activities for global climate change. Projections are prepared in two stages. Projected land use changes include deforestation due to pressures to develop rural land as the human population expands, which is a larger area than that converted from other rural lands (e.g., agriculture) to forestry. In the second stage, transitions among forest types are projected on land allocated to forestry. We consider reforestation, influences of timber harvest, and natural succession and disturbance processes. Baseline projections indicate a net increase of about 5.6 million ha in planted pine area in the South over the next 50 years, with a notable increase in sequestered carbon. Additional opportunities to expand pine plantation area warrant study of landowner behavior to aid in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change and attain other goals.     

Use of Landsat Thematic Mapper Data to Assess Seasonal Rangeland Changes in the Southeast Kalahari, Botswana

/ Management problems arise in semiarid rangeland that are characterized by marked wet and dry seasons because of forage deficiencies in the dry season. These natural vegetation rangelands can sustain livestock all year long when forage and senesced grass are available into the dry season. Seasonal range condition data are required to provide a basis for pasture management to help locate dry season cover and thereby minimize overstocking and degradation. The generation of seasonal data using Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery was undertaken to assess changes in natural vegetation cover in the southern Botswana Kalahari. Visual analysis of spectral reflectance curves, the development of spectral separability indexes, and conventional classification analysis techniques were used to identify and differentiate rangeland features. Results from reflectance curves indicated that most rangeland cover types could be preferentially distinguished using mainly wet season data, especially on the longer TM wavebands, and that range feature differentiation was more problematic on darker soils than on lighter soils. Spectral separability indexes (SSIs) confirmed that range feature separation varied considerably as a function of waveband and was more effective in the wet than the dry season. The SSIs also showed that range feature differentiation in both seasons was most effective using a combination of the chlorophyll absorpance band (TM3) and two mid-infrared bands (TM5 and TM7). Wet season data were more effectively classified in terms of range features than dry season data although some class similarity was inferred across the two classified data sets. The work shows that overall trends may be generated by comparing seasonal data sets, thereby providing an overall basis for dry season decision making. However, particular problems arise within the dry season data sets probably because of spectral similarities between shadow and darkened vegetation cover, thereby implying that further work is needed. KEY WORDS: Semiarid rangelands; Botswana; Kalahari; Spectral differentiation; Seasonal change; Darkened vegetation cover     

Indicator-Based Approach for Assessing the Vulnerability of Freshwater Resources in the Bagmati River Basin,Nepal

To assess the vulnerability of water resources in the Bagmati River Basin in Nepal, this paper adopts an indicator-based approach wherein vulnerability is expressed as a function of water stress and adaptive capacity. Water stress encompasses indicators of water resources variation, scarcity, and exploitation and water pollution, whereas adaptive capacity covers indicators of natural, physical, human resource, and economic capacities. Based on the evaluation of eleven indicators, which were aggregated into eight vulnerability parameters, an increasingly stressful situation and lack of adaptive capacity became evident. Considerable spatial variation in indicator values suggests differential policy options. While the northern parts need attention to reduce pollution loading and conserve vegetation cover, the southern parts need improvements in physical capacity, i.e. water infrastructures. The comprehensive and easily interpretable findings of the study are expected to help decision makers reach sound solutions to reduce freshwater resources vulnerability in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. With its inherent flexibility, the approach has demonstrated its potential for application in different times and areas for monitoring and comparison purposes.     

Effects of anthropogenic fire history on savanna vegetation in northeastern Namibia

Anthropogenic fires in Africa are an ancient form of environmental disturbance, which probably have shaped the savanna vegetation more than any other human induced disturbance. Despite anthropogenic fires having played a significant role in savanna management by herders, previous ecological research did not incorporate the traditional knowledge of anthropogenic fire history. This paper integrates ecological data and anthropogenic fire history, as reconstructed by herders, to assess landscape and regional level vegetation change in northeastern Namibia. We investigated effects of fire frequency (i.e. <5, 5-10 and >10 years) to understand changes in vegetation cover, life form species richness and savanna conditions (defined as a ratio of shrub cover to herbaceous cover). Additionally, we analysed trends in the vegetation variables between different fire histories at the landscape and regional scales. Shrub cover was negatively correlated to herbaceous cover and herbaceous species richness. The findings showed that bush cover homogenisation at landscape and regional scales may suggest that the problem of bush encroachment was widespread. Frequent fires reduced shrub cover temporarily and promoted herbaceous cover. The effects on tree cover were less dramatic. The response to fire history was scale-independent for shrub, herbaceous and tree cover, but scale-dependent for the richness of grass and tree life forms. Fire history, and not grazing pressure, improved savanna conditions. The findings emphasise the need to assess effects of anthropogenic fires on vegetation change before introducing new fire management policies in savanna ecosystems of northeastern Namibia.     

More woody plants? The status of bush encroachment in Botswana's grazing areas

Foci points, which are currently intensified by increased anthropogenic activities, have resulted in vegetation changes in the cattle-dominated grazing areas of Botswana. Bush encroachment species--for instance Acacia tortilis, A. erubescens, A. mellifera, Dichrostachys cinerea, Grewia flava, and Terminalia sericea--are increasing in cover and density around foci points (e.g. water points and kraals) at the expense of the grass cover. A number of factors have the effect of encouraging the germination and survival of bush encroachment species. The practice of cattle husbandry and continual shifting of foci points within grazing areas have resulted in the spread of the distribution of bush encroachment species across the country. This is evidenced by the potential extent of 37,000 km2 (6.4% of Botswana) of darkened and near infrared (NIR) reflective bush encroached areas in 1994. This paper suggests that specific management strategies should be adopted to help overcome the bush encroachment problem, which is causing a significant reduction in the extent of Botswana's high quality rangeland. These strategies may vary from the enforced reduction of grazing intensity in areas identified as being heavily bush encroached to the selective management of opportunistic (communal) grazing in better quality predominantly grassland areas. Further work is however required to update this analysis and especially to consider trends since 1994-1995. While some work on the extent of woody cover and the further causes of bush encroachment is being undertaken under the SAFARI2000 project, more research is needed in specific areas to pinpoint causes and responses to the bush encroachment problem.     

Integrating Landscape Ecology and Geoinformatics to Decipher Landscape Dynamics for Regional Planning

We used remote sensing and GIS in conjunction with multivariate statistical methods to: (i) quantify landscape composition (land cover types) and configuration (patch density, diversity, fractal dimension, contagion) for five coastal watersheds of Kalloni gulf, Lesvos Island, Greece, in 1945, 1960, 1971, 1990 and 2002/2003, (ii) evaluate the relative importance of physical (slope, geologic substrate, stream order) and human (road network, population density) variables on landscape composition and configuration, and (iii) characterize processes that led to land cover changes through land cover transitions between these five successive periods in time. Distributions of land cover types did not differ among the five time periods at the five watersheds studied because the largest cumulative changes between 1945 and 2002/2003 did not take place at dominant land cover types. Landscape composition related primarily to the physical attributes of the landscape. Nevertheless, increase in population density and the road network were found to increase heterogeneity of the landscape mosaic (patchiness), complexity of patch shape (fractal dimension), and patch disaggregation (contagion). Increase in road network was also found to increase landscape diversity due to the creation of new patches. The main processes involved in land cover changes were plough-land abandonment and ecological succession. Landscape dynamics during the last 50 years corroborate the ecotouristic-agrotouristic model for regional development to reverse trends in agricultural land abandonment and human population decline and when combined with hypothetical regulatory approaches could predict how this landscape could develop in the future, thus, providing a valuable tool to regional planning.     

Threshold-Based Resource Management: A Framework for Comprehensive Ecosystem Management

The problems posed by adaptive management for improved ecosystem health are reviewed. Other kinds of science-informed ecosystem management are needed for those regions of conflict between rapid human population growth, increased resource extraction, and the rising demand for better environmental amenities, where large-scale experiments are not feasible. One new framework is threshold-based resource management. Threshold-based resource management guides management choices among four major science and engineering approaches to achieve healthier ecosystems: self-sustaining ecosystem management, adaptive management, case-by-case resource management, and high-reliability management. As resource conflicts increase over a landscape (i.e., as the ecosystems in the landscape move through different thresholds), management options change for the environmental decision-maker in terms of what can and cannot be attained by way of ecosystem health. The major policy and management implication of the framework is that the exclusive use or recommendation of any one management regime, be it self-sustaining, adaptive, case-by-case, or high-reliability management, across all categories of ecosystems within a heterogeneous landscape that is variably populated and extractively used is not only inappropriate, it is fatal to the goals of improved ecosystem health. The article concludes with detailed proposals for environmental decision-makers to undertake “bandwidth management” in ways that blend the best of adaptive management and high-reliability management for improved ecosystem health while at the same time maintaining highly reliable flows of ecosystem services, such as water.     

Transforming the Response in Experiments Based on Percentage Cover of Vegetation

Many ecological studies use popular variables such as percentage cover of the vegetation to assess the effects of different treatments or environmental management or conditions. Starting with sparse vegetation, the growth in percentage cover is likely to be sigmoidal, and, unless repetitive cover is measured, it will have an upper asymptote of 100%. If the initial cover values under different treatments or management regimes are not equal, then the different growth rates due to the unequal starting values will be confounded with the different treatments.A family of suitable growth curve models can be fitted to the data arising under different treatments, so that one or more of the interpretable fitted parameters of the model can be considered as "responses" to the different treatments. These responses can be analysed to compare the effects of different treatments or environmental conditions, using either parametric or non-parametric methods. The suggested approach is illustrated by application to a particular data set from the literature. The implications for the design of field studies and for the analysis of other vegetational variables are discussed.     

Urban Environmental Management in Botswana: Toward a Theoretical Explanation ofPublic Policy Failure

For the last three and half decades, Botswana has been widely acclaimed to be one of sub-Saharan Africa's longest and most stable liberal democracies, coupled with and sustained by a growing economy. One of the major contradictions, however, within this development scenario, has been the neglect of environmental problems in the country in general, and urban environmental issues in particular. Part of the problem fueling the misconception of environmental issues in Botswana is the state's domination of the country's environmental agenda. This is linked to the power disjunction in decision-making and policy processes between state and nonstate actors over the most appropriate course of action to tackle the problems. Without adopting appropriate analytical frameworks, it is possible that the problem of urban environmental mismanagement in Botswana will persist. This article examines some of the major urban environmental issues in Botswana from neighborhood, citywide, and urban–rural interface perspectives. Further, the elite theory of public policy is used to explain constraints on policy change in the urban environmental management arena in Botswana.     

Soil, Vegetation, and Seed Bank of a Sonoran Desert Ecosystem Along an Exotic Plant (Pennisetum ciliare) Treatment Gradient

Ecological conditions following removal of exotic plants are a key part of comprehensive environmental management strategies to combat exotic plant invasions. We examined ecological conditions following removal of the management-priority buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) in Saguaro National Park of the North American Sonoran Desert. We assessed soil, vegetation, and soil seed banks on seven buffelgrass site types: five different frequencies of buffelgrass herbicide plus hand removal treatments (ranging from 5 years of annual treatment to a single year of treatment), untreated sites, and non-invaded sites, with three replicates for each of the seven site types. The 22 measured soil properties (e.g., pH) differed little among sites. Regarding vegetation, buffelgrass cover was low (≤1 % median cover), or absent, across all treated sites but was high (10–70 %) in untreated sites. Native vegetation cover, diversity, and composition were indistinguishable across site types. Species composition was dominated by native species (>93 % relative cover) across all sites except untreated buffelgrass sites. Most (38 species, 93 %) of the 41 species detected in soil seed banks were native, and native seed density did not differ significantly across sites. Results suggest that: (1) buffelgrass cover was minimal across treated sites; (2) aside from high buffelgrass cover in untreated sites, ecological conditions were largely indistinguishable across sites; (3) soil seed banks harbored ≥12 species that were frequent in the aboveground vegetation; and (4) native species dominated post-treatment vegetation composition, and removing buffelgrass did not result in replacement by other exotic species.     

Education and advice contribute to increased density of broadleaved conservation trees, but not saplings, in young forest in Sweden

The effectiveness of different conservation policies is debated, but the policies are rarely evaluated quantitatively. A voluntary or 'soft' policy based mainly on education provides information about ecosystems and effects of land use, to encourage conservation action. Swedish forestry relies mainly on soft policy, with substantial resources for education and advice to more than 200,000 forest owners, while legal regulation is weak. Increased retention of broadleaved trees at clear-cutting, with environmental benefits in the conifer-dominated forestry, is important in the policy. We used the Swedish National Forest Inventory to analyse this policy for young forests in southern Sweden. Between 1983-1987 and 1998-2002 the policy had no positive effect on saplings (1.3m tall to 4.9 cm dbh) of birch, oak, beech and other species that mostly decreased in density, due to planting of conifers and browsing by ungulates. However, broadleaved conservation trees (>or=15 cm dbh) increased in density, e.g. to about one oak and six birches per ha in young coniferous forest in 1998-2002. The relative increase in density was higher for large (>or=20 cm dbh) than for small trees (15-20 cm dbh). The density of conservation trees was higher on forestland of high than of low productivity. Thus, the soft conservation policy did not influence regeneration of saplings in this type of forestry system, but large broadleaved trees were increasingly saved at 'clear-cuttings'. Advice and educational programmes probably contributed to this result. A continued increase in conservation trees at harvest may require economical support to forest owners.     

Understanding land cover change in a Special Protection Area in Central Spain through the enhanced land cover transition matrix and a related new approach

This work analyses land cover changes occurring between 1990 and 2000 within a Natural Protected Area, southwest of Madrid (Spain). We develop a new methodology that considers the net change in different land cover categories in each municipality of the study area. Our methodology, which uses Factorial Correspondence Analysis, allows identification of the most important changes at the municipality level and groups the municipalities where land use dynamics are similar. This method is a powerful tool for synthesis and can potentially be applied to non-spatial geographical data sources (e.g. agrarian census statistics). Our results show that the land cover around SW Madrid is highly dynamic. The shrub vegetation, arable land, heterogeneous agricultural and human-created area categories show the highest total change. The dynamics of the changes detected are dominated by decreases in the area of different types of crops and increases in forest areas. These changes may have indirect effects on the conservation of natural resources and wildlife if not managed appropriately.     

Assessing stock and change in land cover and biodiversity in GB: an introduction to Countryside Survey 2000

Countryside Survey 2000 (CS2000) is the latest in a series of surveys designed to measure and evaluate stock and change of land cover, landscape features, freshwaters, habitats and the vegetation of Great Britain. The ideas behind CS2000 developed during the 1960s and 1970s and culminated in the first survey of vegetation and land cover in 1978. One kilometer sample squares were selected at random using an environmental stratification. Subsequent surveys took place in 1984, 1990 and 1998, revisiting the original sample locations, whilst progressively expanding in scope and sample size; CS2000 included soils, breeding birds, remotely sensed imagery, freshwater biota and hydromorphology. Countryside Survey data may be interpreted using the pressure-state-response model, by selecting indicators of process and quality, and by identifying models of expected responses to different pressures. Thus, results showing losses of hedgerows between 1984 and 1990 stimulated new protection for these features. Ideally, CS2000 data should be used to stimulate experiments to distinguish between different pressures, in order to ensure that policy and management responses are both appropriate and achievable.The experience from CS2000 may prove helpful for the design and management of other large scale monitoring programmes of ecosystems. In particular, the scope of the survey, and the use to which the data are applied, have evolved through time, and yet continuity was essential for change to be detected efficiently. These objectives were reconciled by collecting the data in a disaggregated form, allowing a high degree of flexibility in both analysis and reporting.     

Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.     

REMOTE SENSING OF RIPARIAN BUFFERS: PAST PROGRESS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS1

Riparian buffer zone management is an area of increasing relevance as human modification of the landscape continues unabated. Land and water resource managers are continually challenged to maintain stream ecosystem integrity and water quality in the context of rapidly changing land use, which often offsets management gains. Approaches are needed not only to map vegetation cover in riparian zones, but also to monitor the changes taking place, target restoration activities, and assess the success of previous management actions. To date, these objectives have been difficult to meet using traditional techniques based on aerial photos and field visits, particularly over large areas. Recent advances in remote sensing have the potential to substantially aid buffer zone management. Very high resolution imagery is now available that allows detailed mapping and monitoring of buffer zone vegetation and provides a basis for consistent assessments using moderately high resolution remote sensing (e.g., Landsat). Laser‐based remote sensing is another advance that permits even more detailed information on buffer zone properties, such as refined topographic derivatives and multidimensional vegetation structure. These sources of image data and map information are reviewed in this paper, examples of their application to riparian buffer mapping and stream health assessment are provided, and future prospects for improved buffer monitoring are discussed.     

Evaluating Holistic Environmental Consequences of Brownfield Management Options Using Consequential Life Cycle Assessment for Different Perspectives

Brownfields are abandoned, idled, or underused sites whose reuse necessitates some sort of intervention. These sites are largely urban and are frequently contaminated. Brownfield management options can be associated with three types of environmental consequences: those resulting from changes in the site’s environmental quality (primary impacts); those resulting from the actual intervention stage (secondary impacts); and, if the vocation of the site changes, those resulting from effects on regional land use (tertiary impacts). Different stakeholders and decision-making contexts will place a different importance on each of these types of impacts. This article proposes a framework for comparing brownfield management options in regard to these three types of environmental impacts and for interpreting these results from different perspectives. The assessment framework is based on consequential life cycle assessment (LCA), which is shown to provide environmental information on the three types of impacts. The results for a case study are presented, where a “rehabilitation” option allowing residential redevelopment is compared to an “exposure minimization” option not resulting in the site being reused. Calculated primary and tertiary impacts are favorable to the rehabilitation option, whereas secondary impacts are favorable to the exposure minimization option. A ternary diagram presents the favorable option for different stereotypical perspectives. Tertiary impacts are much greater than secondary impacts, and consequently all perspectives that consider tertiary impacts favor rehabilitation. The perspective that considers primary and secondary impacts receives conflicting information. The ternary diagram, showing results for all perspectives, could possibly be useful for consensus-building among stakeholders.     

Sustainable forestry management in developing countries

The central message of this paper is that natural forests have multiple uses and multiple users. The paper describes the crisis in Asian forestry and four failures which lie behind the crisis. The first failure is related to economic policy which has consistently underpriced timber, not accounting for the true cost of replacing the felled trees or the value of non-timber goods and services (including environmental services). The second failure stems from the lack of community involvement in managing forests. The third failure is that of forestry institutions which have not been able to adapt to changes required to meet new challenges — away from timber extraction towards environmental services and social forestry. The fourth failure arises from technological constraints, including difficulties in carrying out long-term research (to cover the 20–40 year time horizon in the forestry sector) and ineffective application of research results. A number of specific suggestions for moving toward sustained yield management in Asia are presented. The sustainable management of forests in Asia is crucial not only for indigenous peoples, the environment and economies of the countries of Asia, but also for the biodiversity and health of the global environment.     

Quantification of the regional carbon cycle of the biosphere: policy, science and land-use decisions

This paper addresses some issues related to the carbon cycle and its utilization by society. Traditional uses for agriculture, forestry, as a source of fuel and other products, and for pastoral farming, among others, have recently been supplemented by identifying its potential for mitigating the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Through the Kyoto Protocol, carbon has become a commodity and the CO(2)-absorbing capability of the vegetation and soils an economically valuable asset. The multi-facetted roles of the C cycle and its sensitivity to human activities present a demand for techniques that permit accurate, timely and affordable characterization of the various components of this cycle, especially on land where most human activities take place. Such techniques must satisfy a range of demands in terms of purpose, clients for the information, and biosphere properties. However, if successful, they offer the potential to support monitoring, reporting, policy setting, and management of terrestrial biospheric resources. The context for these requirements and possibilities is illustrated with reference to the China Carbon Sequestration Project and its findings.     

Silvicultural management in maintaining biodiversity and resistance of forests in Europe-the Mediterranean region

Outstanding features of Mediterranean forest area are highlighted with a special reference to biodiversity and connections with forest management. The naturally originated and anthropogenic progress of the mosaic-like evolution, as well as the man-induced factors and natural constraints are described. The past and present close linkages between management and biodiversity are then analysed by means of a few, outstanding cases typical of the geographical region. The management shift on increasing economically marginal forest area (abandonment) appears to be the major force currently driving connections with inherent and associated biodiversity. The goals following the new-established environmental roles of forests have shifted towards adaptive management, namely the implementation of locally tailored rules in accordance with prominent forest functions. Key priorities to face up to the new scenarios are then discussed.Economic and policy implications are addressed with reference to multipurpose forestry and the related annual flow of outputs. It is shown the role of water-related services, as well the provision of various non-wood forest products and public goods in addition to wood and other traditional forest outputs. Reference is also made to the dualism between the Northern and the South-Eastern Mediterranean countries due to different level of economic development (and pressure of forest resources) together with very different institutional structures, i.e. public ownership in Southern and South-Eastern Mediterranean countries. Nevertheless, the situation is going to become more harmonious in the medium run by growing economic development, the affirmation of local rights on forest resources, globalisation and, above all, rural out migration and exchanges of peoples confirming the traditional role of the Mediterranean Region at cross road of South-North and Eastern-Western cultures.