Importance of scientific uncertainty in decision making

Uncertainty in environmental decision making should not be thought of as a problem that is best ignored. In fact, as is illustrated in a simple example, we often informally make use of awareness of uncertainty by hedging decisions away from large losses. This hedging can be made explicit and formalized using the methods of decision analysis. While scientific uncertainty is undesirable, it can still be useful in environmental management as it provides a basis for the need to fund additional monitoring, experimentation, or information acquisition to improve the scientific basis for decisions.     

The role of analytical science in natural resource decision making

There is a continuing debate about the proper role of analytical (positivist) science in natural resource decision making. Two diametrically opposed views are evident, arguing for and against a more extended role for scientific information. The debate takes on a different complexion if one recognizes that certain kinds of problem, referred to here as “wicked” or “trans-science” problems, may not be amenable to the analytical process. Indeed, the mistaken application of analytical methods to trans-science problems may not only be a waste of time and money but also serve to hinder policy development. Since many environmental issues are trans-science in nature, then it follows that alternatives to analytical science need to be developed. In this article, the issues involved in the debate are clarified by examining the impact of the use of analytical methods in a particular case, the spruce budworm controversy in New Brunswick. The article ends with some suggestions about a “holistic” approach to the problem.     

Impact of human trampling in different zones of a coral reef flat

The effects of trampling on the coral communities of the outer reef flat and reef crest were investigated at Heron Island at the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef. Eighteen months of trampling at various intensities increased the percentage cover of unoccupied substrate and the cover of mobile rubble. The morphology of the coral was the most important feature relating to trampling resistance. Branching corals were reduced on the outer reef flat, and most broken branches were recorded in the initial phases of the experiment. The reef crest was much more resistant.A short-term trampling experiment showed that trampling detached a greater mass and larger fragments of coral on the outer reef flat than on the reef crest. Further trampling reduced the sizes of the detached fragments on the outer reef flat. A drift experiment indicated that greatest movement of fragments occurred on the reef crest and here the largest fragments moved greater distances.We concluded that all habitats would be changed by reef walking and that by one measure the outer reef flat was 16 times more vulnerable than the reef crest. The routes taken by reef walkers need to be chosen in relation to the trampling resistance of the habitat.     

Multiple criteria decision making: Facilitating a learning environment

Effective decision making for sustainability requires consideration of multiple evaluation criteria. A numerical weight, assigned to each criterion, is the most common tool used to formalize preferences in Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). However, there are methods other than applying weights, which can be used to explore and articulate preferences. Two such groups have been identified as aspirational and holistic methods. The authors are interested in establishing if the different approaches to MCDM vary in their ability to facilitate a learning environment. There has been little examination of how this might best be achieved. An attempt is made to set out some hypotheses about which characteristics of MCDM tools may best support such learning. Additionally, three MCDM tools, representing the weighting, aspirational and holistic methods, are evaluated through a workshop for their ability to support individual learning. This includes a new tool, referred to as Target Ordering, which explores preferences through criteria targets rather than applying a weight to the criteria themselves.     

Space perception as a factor in land use decision making

Land use decisions involve the allocation of space to competing demands. Space is perceived subjectively, particularly in respect to recreational use. Five groups involved in the decision-making process were asked to select from a list of acreages or percentages the closest approximation for each of five land use categories. The responses produced considerable variation from the correct answers. Designated park areas tended to be overestimated and designated forest lands underestimated. While some differences were associated with group affiliation; visibility of areas, political importance, experience of individual, mode of access, proximity, and role of group member may also have been important determinants. The importance of space perception is dependent on type of process in decision making; in particular whether the process is incremental or comprehensive.     

Material Flow Analysis: a tool to support environmental policy decision making. Case-studies on the city of Vienna and the Swiss lowlands

This paper discusses the use of Material Flow Analysis (MFA) as a tool to support policy decision making in the field of resource and environmental management. In terms of policy, MFA can be used for early recognition, priority setting, to analyse and improve the effectiveness of measures and to design efficient material management strategies in view of sustainability. MFA has a high potential to be implemented as a guiding tool at the regional level, for example as part of a regional environmental management and audit system or as a part of the Local Agenda 21 process. Material management based on MFA is complementary to traditional environmental and resource management strategies, which have tended to focus heavily on specific environmental compartments, and measure the concentration of substances in various media. MFA, in contrast, provides an overview of the total system by linking the anthroposphere (that part of the biosphere in which humans' activities take place) with the environment. This system approach shifts the focus away from the back-end so-called 'filter strategies' to more pro-active front-end measures. MFA examines short- and long-term loadings rather than concentrations and highlights current and potential material accumulations, called material stocks. These stocks represent either potential environmental problems (e.g. large stocks of hazardous materials) or a potential source of future resources (e.g. urban mining). In this way, MFA can assist precautionary policy making by highlighting future environmental or resource issue problems without relying on signals of environmental stress. The objective of materials management is: firstly, to analyse material flows and stocks; secondly, to evaluate these results; and thirdly, to control material flows in view of certain goals such as sustainable development. MFA is an excellent tool for the first objective and is well suited to generate a base for the other two objectives. MFA results can be compared against environmental standards or can be interpreted using assessment or indicator methodologies (such as environmental impact assessment or ecological footprints). Selected results from two studies, carried out for the city of Vienna (substance management) and the Swiss lowlands (timber management), illustrate the use of MFA as a tool for early recognition (resource depletion and environmental quality), for priority setting and for effective policy making.     

Use of experimental ecosystems in regulatory decision making

Tiered testing for the effects of chemicals on aquatic ecosystems has begun to include tests at the ecosystem level as a component in pesticide regristration. Because such tests are expensive, regulators and industry need to know what additional information they can gain from such tests relative to the costs of the simpler single-species toxicity bioassays. Requirements for ecosystem-level testing have developed because resource managers have not fully understood the implications of potential damage to resources without having evaluations of the predicted impacts under field conditions. We review approaches taken in the use of experimental ecosystems, discuss benefits and limitations of small- and large-scale ecosystem tests, and point to correlative approaches between laboratory and field toxicity testing.Laboratory experimental ecosystems (microcosms) have been successfully used to measure contaminant bioavailability, to determine routes of uptake in moderately complex aquatic systems, and to isolate factors modifying contaminant uptake into the biota. Such factors cannot be as readily studied in outdoor experimental ecosystems because direct cause-and-effect relations are often confounded and difficult to isolate. However, laboratory tests can be designed to quantify the relations among three variables: known concentrations of Stressors; specific sublethal behavioral, biochemical, and physiological effects displayed by organisms; and responses that have been observed in ecosystem-level analyses. For regulatory purposes, the specificity of test results determines how widely they can be applied. Ecotoxicological research should be directed at attempts to identify instances where single-species testing would be the appropriate level of analysis for identifying critical ecological endpoints and for clarifying relationships between ecosystem structure and function, and where it would be inadequate for a given level of analysis.     

Government policy and environmental protection in the developing world: The example of Nigeria

Environmental protection is a topical and controversial issue of contemporary Third World development. As a result of the growing crisis of environment and development as well as issues of global environmental balance, divergent views and proposals have been put forward by external governments, international agencies, and environmental groups in resolving the environmental degradation problems of the developing world. However, very little appraisal has been made of the efforts by indigenous Third World governments in facing up to their environmental conservation issues. This article examines the role of past and recent government environmental control policies and programs in Nigeria. The article analyzes three aspects of environmental protection: (1) the theoretical economic bases of environmental protection and the Nigerian approach to environmental protection, including traditional values and modern institutional control measures, the latter embracing nature conservation efforts; (2) environmental considerations in national development plans; and (3) the evolution of a federal environmental protection agency and a national policy on environment. Finally, the article discusses the future challenges and directions for environmental policy.     

The use and abuse of scientific studies

In response to Evelyn Pluhar'sWho Can Be Morally Obligated to Be a Vegetarian? in this journal issue, the author has read all of Pluhar's citations for the accuracy of her claims and had these read by an independent nutritionist. Detailed analysis of Pluhar's argument shows that she attempts to make her case by consistent misappropriation of the findings and conclusions of the studies she cites. Pluhar makes sweeping generalizations from scanty data, ignores causal explanations given by scientists, equates hypothesis with fact, draws false cause conclusions from studies, and in one case claims a conclusion opposite of what the scientist published. Such poor reasoning cannot be the basis of an argument for moral vegetarianism. A broader search of the literature and attention to reviews and textbooks in nutrition shows that each of Pluhar's claims is suspect or incorrect. Pluhar has not undermined my central claims: even if animals have certain rights and well-planned vegetarian diets are safe in complex industrialized societies, these diets cannot be so regarded if the presuppositions of high levels of wealth, education, and medical care do not exist; and, women, children, the aged and some ill persons are at greater risk on restrictive vegan diets. Thus, any duty of moral vegetarianism is not categorical but provisional in nature.     

The role of population projections in environmental management

California and other regions in the United States are becoming more populated and ethnically diverse, and thus, ecological impacts on the wildland–urban interface are a significant policy concern. In a socioeconomic assessment focused on the geographic regions surrounding four national forests in southern California, population projections are being formulated to assist in the update of forest plans. In southern California, the projected trend of explosive population growth combined with increased ethnic and racial diversity indicates four challenges for environmental management. First, patterns of recreation use on wildlands are likely to change, and management of these areas will have to address new needs. Second, as land-management agencies face changing constituencies, new methods of soliciting public involvement from ethnic and racial groups will be necessary. Third, growth in the region is likely to encroach upon wildland areas, affecting water, air, open space, and endangered species. Fourth, in order to address all these concerns in a climate of declining budgets, resource management agencies need to strengthen collaborative relationships with other agencies in the region. How environmental managers approach these changes has widespread implications for the ecological sustainability of forests in southern California.     

Five propositions for improving decision making about the environment in developing communities: insights from the decision sciences

Decisions focused on managing natural resources in developing areas present some of the most imposing challenges to policy makers, scientists, and stakeholders alike. The response of policy makers and the technical community in the face of these challenges has been significant. However, our experiences as researchers and facilitators of group planning and decision-making processes have left us concerned about the lack of attention devoted to supporting the underlying processes used to make these complex decisions. To this end, we present five propositions based on work in the decision sciences that we believe stand out as essential for improving decision-making processes in developing communities.     

NIEO revisited: A new international environmental order in the making

In the past, most of the attempts to improve the situation of the developing countries have focused on economic policy, on the conditions of international trade, on aid and direct investment. A debate on a New International Economic Order (NIEO) was launched in the 1970s (c.f. Tinbergen, 1976)—and largely failed (c.f. Simonis, 1989). This paper shows that environmental policy could be a more effective lever for improving the lot of the developing countries; the near future may see the evolution of a new international environmental order which is likely to better link environmental protection and economic development.     

Willing and able: explaining individuals' engagement in environmental policy making

Research on attitudes toward environmental policy making has often overlooked the important role that risks play in forming individual attitudes towards the environment. Similarly, this research often assumes that the factors that affect attitudes are similar across different environmental domains. The purpose of this research is to examine how the factors that affect an individual's willingness to get involved in environmental policy making differ on two environmental issues – nuclear power and drinking water. The study utilises multivariate statistical techniques to explore the relationship that uncertainty, risk, and trust play in an individual's willingness to take action in environmental policy making. The data consist of responses to a national random telephone survey of 403 adults in the United States. The individuals surveyed are more likely to take action on the less avoidable potential threat of nuclear power than they are on drinking water. The respondents believe that the potential harm from nuclear power is greater than that from drinking water. The individuals most likely to take action are those who indicate that they are interested in environmental issues.     

Marine litter in coral reef areas along the Jordan Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea

Composition and abundance of submerged marine litter at six selected sites within a coral reef area along the Jordanian coast of the Gulf of Aqaba have been estimated. The litter was collected in clean up voluntary campaigns that took place in the period between 25 August 2003 and 29 February 2004. A total of 10,506 items weighing 1159 kg were collected during the survey. Mean litter density in the individual sampling sites varied between 1 and 6 items/m(2) with an overall mean density of 2.8 items/m(2). The mean weight of the collected items per sampling site varied between 0.06 and 1.06 kg/m(2) with an overall mean of 0.31 kg/m(2). Plastic accounted for 42% of the collected items, fishing gear was the second most abundant (31%) while metal was the third most abundant item (17%). By comparison, cardboard constituted 1%, and rubber and other items accounted for less than 1% of the total items collected during the campaigns. Approximately 61% of the plastics consisted of bags followed by bottles (24%), plastic containers and sheets accounted for 13 and 2%, respectively. Statistical analysis indicates no significant differences between the sites in terms of litter count and weight. Potential sources are pointed out and recommendations and actions to address the problem are suggested.     

An experimental investigation of resilience decision making in repeated disasters

Environment Systems and Decisions - Given the growing prevalence of catastrophic events and health epidemics, policymakers are increasingly searching for effective strategies to encourage firms to...     

Product life cycle: The key to integrating ehs into corporate decision making and operations

A consensus is emerging that traditional environmental health and safety (EHS) programs—characterized by EHS professionals serving a support function to a company's main operations—represent only part of effective EHS management. In order to be truly successful, EHS management must go beyond this format and integrate EHS considerations into the corporation itself, from its strategic corporate decision making to its everyday operations on the manufacturing floor. Only when EHS becomes part of the fabric of a business's activity will EHS risks and costs be truly minimized—and the many potential benefits fully realized. This article discusses how to make this goal a reality by use of the manufacturing and product life cycle (PLC) perspective. It will first stress the importance of integrating EHS considerations into corporate decision making and operations. It will then trace the critical steps for achieving such integration through the use of the PLC, concentrating particularly on a General Electric Company (GE) chemical management process that weaves EHS concerns into every stage of day-to-day operations.