Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Conditions for citizen co-production in a resilient,efficient and legitimate flood risk governance arrangement. A tentative framework

Across Europe, there is an increasing trend towards citizen involvement in the implementation of flood risk governance. Policy-makers increasingly advocate co-produced flood risk governance (FRG), whereby citizens are actively engaged in the implementation of flood risk policy, for example, by taking property-level protection measures. In doing so, they aim to make FRG more resilient, efficient and legitimate [Mees, H., Crabbé, A., Alexander, M., Kaufmann, M., Bruzzone, L., Levy, L., & Lewandowski, J. (2016a). Coproducing flood risk management through citizen involvement: Insights from cross-country comparison in Europe. Ecology and Society, 21(3), 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-08500-210307]. Co-production, however, also raises important questions concerning these aims. In this paper, the opportunities and limitations of and barriers to citizen co-production in FRG in terms of resilience, efficiency and legitimacy are investigated by an extensive review of literature on citizen co-production in other public services and on individual and community-based climate change adaptation and FRG. Based on this, a tentative framework is developed on the required conditions to enable co-produced FRG, which benefits both the resilience, efficiency and legitimacy of FRG.     

A framework for evaluation of flood management strategies

The resulting impact of disasters on society depends on the affected country's economic strength prior to the disaster. The larger the disaster and the smaller the economy, the more significant is the impact. This is clearest seen in developing countries, where weak economies become even weaker afterwards. Deliberate strategies for the sharing of losses from hazardous events may aid a country or a community in efficiently using scarce prevention and mitigation resources, thus being better prepared for the effects of a disaster. Nevertheless, many governments lack an adequate institutional system for applying cost effective and reliable technologies for disaster prevention, early warnings, and mitigation. Modelling by event analyses and strategy models is one way of planning ahead, but these models have so far not been linked together. An approach to this problem was taken during a large study in Hungary, the Tisza case study, where a number of policy strategies for spreading of flood loss were formulated. In these strategies, a set of parameters of particular interest were extracted from interviews with stakeholders in the region. However, the study was focused on emerging economies, and, in particular, on insurance strategies. The scope is now extended to become a functional framework also for developing countries. In general, they have a higher degree of vulnerability. The paper takes northern Vietnam as an example of a developing region. We identify important parameters and discuss their importance for flood strategy formulations. Based on the policy strategies in the Tisza case, we extract data from the strategies and propose a framework for loss spread in developing and emerging economies. The parameter set can straightforwardly be included in a simulation and decision model for policy formulation and evaluation, taking multiple stakeholders into account.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Sustainable coastal resources management: principles and practice

Coastal zones are currently experiencing intense and sustained environmental pressures from a range of driving forces. Responsible agencies around the globe are seeking ways of better managing the causes and consequences of the environmental change process in coastal areas. This article discusses the basic principles underpinning a more integrated approach to coastal management, as well as the obstacles to its implementation in both developed and developing countries. The fulfilment of the goal of sustainable utilisation of coastal resources via integrated management is likely to prove to be difficult. Any successful strategy will have to encompass all the elements of management from planning and design through financing and implementation. An interdisciplinary analytical and operational approach is also required, combined with a more flexible and participatory institutional structure and emphasis to account for multiple stakeholders and resource demands. As historical and institutional perspectives as well as socio-economic and cultural contexts are also important, two case studies (based on UK and Vietnamese experiences) are presented in order to identify arguments and examine these aspects in more detail.     

Between resistance and resilience: a study of flood risk management in the Don catchment area (UK)

The river Don catchment area in Sheffield and Rotherham offers a good place for a case study of flood risk management, given the impact of a flooding event in 2007 and the way in which local events have become entwined with national and international policy shifts. To interpret local policy, a combination of systems-based and socio-cultural theory is used. Both the theories and the case study serve to disentangle the multiple meanings of resilience. Understood in opposition to flood resistance, resilience has only limited applicability in an area such as the case study where engineering works protect employment and infrastructure. Resilience as a policy discourse also lacks political transparency and a recognition of socio-cultural influences. Underlying the shift towards resilient styles of management is an appreciation of the importance of capacity, to learn and to act. The case study identifies blockages to the realisation of that capacity.     

A paradigm for ecological risk assessment

The 1983 National Academy of Sciences paradigm for conducting human health risk assessment is considered with respect to ecological risk assessment. This four-step paradigm fails to capture key intrinsic differences between the two types of analysis, specifically: identity of risk targets and receptors; identity of the appropriate level of ecological organization at which the risk is expressed; variability of endpoint with respect to risk receptor; and the existence ofrisk cascades through ecological feedback loops. We propose an alternative paradigm that includes a preliminary step,receptor identification, in which chemical partitioning is combined with a conceptual model of the ecosystem to identify appropriate risk targets. In addition, we propose formal inclusion ofendpoint identification and explicit consideration of risk cascades in arelationship assessment in which interactive feedback loops are considered in an iterative process. The proposed paradigm preserves the steps of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment (renamedresponse assessment) and risk characterization, although specific modifications are recommended.     

Trying harder: Developing a new sustainable strategy for the UK

The UK reviewed its National Sustainable Development Strategy during 2003 and 2004, and produced a new strategy — the third for the UK — in March 2005. Having established that the main weakness of the previous strategy was in its delivery, the review and the resulting new strategy set out to put a much stronger emphasis on delivery mechanisms. In support of this, the process included more participative ways for those involved in delivering to contribute their views and ideas, including web‐based dialogue, participative events and seminars, and community level discussions. The key points for the success of the project were the involvement of stakeholders; project management of the process; a marketing and communications strategy; cross‐departmental governance; and involvement of an external challenge function (fulfilled in the UK by the Sustainable Development Commission).     

Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales

This paper explores the technical options for warning of surface water flooding in England and Wales and presents the results of an Environment Agency funded project. Following the extensive surface water flooding experienced in summer 2007 a rainfall threshold-based Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) was piloted by the Met Office and Environment Agency providing initial steps towards the establishment of a warning for some types of surface water flooding. The findings of this paper are based primarily on feedback on technical options from a range of professionals involved in flood forecasting and warning and flood risk management, about the current alerts and about the potential options for developing a more targeted surface water flood warning service. Providing surface water flooding warnings presents a set of technical, forecasting and warning challenges related to the rapid onset of flooding, the localised nature of the flooding, and the linking of rainfall and flood forecasts to flood likelihood and impact on the ground. Some examples of rainfall alerting and surface water flood warning services from other countries are evaluated, as well as a small number of recently implemented local services in England and Wales. Various potential options for implementation of a service are then explored and assessed. The paper concludes that development of a surface water flood warning service for England and Wales is feasible and is likely to be useful to emergency responders and operational agencies, although developing such a service for the pluvial components of this type of flooding is likely to be feasible sooner than for other components of surface water flooding such as that caused by sewers. A targeted surface water flood warning service could be developed for professional emergency responders in the first instance rather than for the public for whom such a service without further operational testing and piloting would be premature.     

Exogenous factors in collective policy learning: the case of municipal flood risk governance in the Netherlands

ABSTRACT

Conceptualizing and analyzing collective policy learning processes is a major ongoing theoretical and empirical challenge. A key gap concerns the role of exogenous factors, which remains under-theorized in the policy learning literature. In this paper, we aim to advance the understanding of the role that exogenous factors play in collective learning processes. We propose a typology of exogenous factors (i.e. material, socioeconomic, institutional, discursive), and subsequently apply this in a comparative study of flood risk policymaking in two municipalities in the Netherlands. We find that exogenous factors are indeed essential for understanding collective learning in these cases, as the combined influence with endogenous factors can steer similar learning processes towards different learning products. We conclude our contribution by identifying two opportunities for further developing the collective learning framework, namely regarding the distinction of varying learning products, and the dynamics of exogenous factors over time.