Proportionate and disproportionate policy responses to climate change: core concepts and empirical applications

A fresh perspective on policy-making and planning has emerged which views disproportionate policy as an intentional policy response. A disproportionate policy response is understood to be a lack of ‘fit’ or balance between the costs of a public policy and the benefits that are derived from this policy, and between policy ends and means. This paper applies this new perspective on the proportionality of policy-making to the area of climate change. The first part of the paper discusses the underlying causes of disproportionate policy responses in broad terms and then applies the theoretical reasoning to understand the conditions in which they are likely to appear in relation to climate change. These conditions are hypothesized to relate to four main factors: economic considerations; levels of public demand; focusing events; and strategic considerations. It concludes with the suggestion that societal actors may be able to manipulate these four factors to encourage politicians to adopt policies that mitigate climate change more rapidly than is currently the case in most countries.     

Discourses of on-farm wind energy generation in the UK farming press

As the owners of the majority of land in the U.K., farmers are well placed to contribute to renewable energy targets. Media coverage can both drive and reflect farmers’ views about renewable energy but has been largely unexplored to date. This article uses discourse analysis to examine the evolution of coverage of one form of renewable energy – on-farm wind – in the U.K. farming press from 1980 to 2013. We identified a diverse debate with five major discourses. On-farm wind turbines are alternatively represented as: profitable farm diversification opportunities; producers of clean energy; important for rural development and sources of conflict. Although press coverage predominantly encourages wind energy production, a further discourse advises farmers to ‘Proceed with Caution’. While emphasising images and values which have widespread affinity among U.K. farmers, the press have increasingly employed an economic frame, constructing wind energy generation as a farm diversification strategy. The most recent farming press coverage predominantly encourages an instrumental approach to wind energy, crowding out other (non-economic) rationales and marginalising local community concerns. This appears to reflect the financial orientation of recent policy support (particularly Feed-in Tariffs), and may have long-term costs in enabling sustainable energy production systems.     

Winners and losers from industry reforms in the developing world: experiences from the electricity and mining sectors

The reform of previously state-owned and operated industries in many Less Developed Countries (LDCs) provide contrary experiences to those in the developed world, which have generally had more equitable distributional impacts. The economic reform policies proposed by the so-called ‘Washington Consensus’ state that privatisation provides governments with opportunities to raise revenues through the sale of under-performing and indebted state industries, thereby reducing significant fiscal burdens, and, at the same time, facilitating influxes of foreign capital, skills and technology, with the aim of improving operations and a ‘trickle-down’ of benefits. However, experiences in many LDCs over the last 15–20 years suggest that reform has not solved the problem of chronic public-sector debt, and that poverty and socio-economic inequalities have increased during this period of ‘neo-liberal’ economics. This paper does not seek to challenge the policies themselves, but rather argues that the context in which reform has often taken place is of fundamental significance. The industry-centric policy advice provided by the IFIs typically causes a ‘lock-in’ of inequitably distributed ‘efficiency gains’, providing minimal, if any, benefits to impoverished groups. These arguments are made using case study analysis from the electricity and mining sectors.     

(Not) talking about justice: justice self-recognition and the integration of energy and environmental-social justice into renewable energy siting

Renewable energy often provokes heated debate on climate change, energy security and the local impacts of developments. However, how far such discussions involve thorough and inclusive debate on the energy and environmental-social justice issues associated with renewable energy siting remains ambiguous, particularly where government agendas prioritise renewable energy and planning systems offer limited opportunities for public debate on value-based arguments for and against renewable energy developments. Using the concept of justice self-recognition, we argue for greater attention to public discussion of the justice dimensions of renewable energy to assist in developing mechanisms to integrate distributive and procedural fairness principles into renewable energy decision-making. To explore how justice is currently invoked in such contexts, we examine recent U.K. policies for renewable energy and public submissions to applications for small-scale wind energy projects in Cornwall, U.K. The analysis of public comments revealed that justice concerns were rarely discussed explicitly. Comments instead did not raise concerns as justice issues or focused implicitly on distributive justice, stressing local aesthetic, community and economic impacts, clean energy and climate change. However, the findings indicated limited discussion of procedural or participatory justice, an absence that hampers the establishment of coherent procedures for deciding acceptable impacts, information standards, public participation and arbitrating disputes. We conclude by suggesting procedural reforms to policy and planning to enable greater public expression of justice concerns and debate on how to negotiate tensions between energy and environmental-social justice in renewable energy siting decisions.     

Economic Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Abatement Measures in the Greek Energy Sector

This paper outlines a methodological framework for the economic evaluation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission abatement policies and measures, formulating a basis for the selection of those options of climate change mitigation interventions that minimize economic cost and maximize social welfare. To this purpose, a cost-benefit analysis has been implemented in order to evaluate a variety of CO 2 emission abatement measures in the Greek energy sector on the basis of their social (i.e. the sum of the private and external) costs and benefits, and it is compared with a cost-effectiveness analysis, which takes into account only the net financial costs of the examined interventions. The analysis clearly reveals that a significant decrease in CO 2 emissions is possible without great cost to the economy. Moreover, the monetization of environmental benefits (e.g. the restriction of impacts on human health, agriculture and biodiversity, etc.) associated with the above-mentioned interventions represents a powerful tool for highlighting priority actions in the context of a climate change mitigation policy and for quantifying their overall economic and environmental effectiveness.     

Over-reaction and under-reaction in climate policy: an institutional analysis

In what circumstances do organizations react to changes in their operating environment by adopting proportionate policy responses? And drawing on institutional theory, what expectations can we formulate in relation to the proportionality of policy responses to climate change? These two research questions frame this article, which seeks to make new connections between the emerging perspective of proportionality in policy-making and existing institutional theories. We find that institutional theories are well suited to formulating expectations concerning the (dis)proportionality of policy responses, but their explanatory power can be further improved by taking the characteristics of specific climate policy problems into account. While there are many different problems nested in the ‘meta’ problem of climate change, we find that most of them have characteristics which suggest that policy under-reactions are more, not less likely. Amongst institutional theories, rational choice institutionalism provides the clearest expectation that proportionate policy responses are unlikely. Policy entrepreneurship is identified as one obvious way in which to stimulate proportionate policy responses, through fostering new ways of thinking within organizations.     

The effect of clean energy regulations and incentives on green jobs: panel analysis of the United States, 1998–2007

‘Green jobs’ are often presented as a simultaneous solution for the economic downturn and the environmental crisis, particularly as they relate to sustainable development in energy and climate change. Federal, state, and municipal authorities have employed a variety of policy tools to boost job creation within their jurisdictions. This study focuses on the role that state policies play in creating green jobs. It examines two generic policy tools – regulations and incentives – each of which can be aimed at advancing energy efficiency or renewable energy production, and assesses the relative impact they have had on generating green jobs. In order to measure this impact, we utilize panel data compiled by the Pew Charitable Trusts, which contain a state‐level count of green jobs from 1998 to 2007. The results of the analysis suggest that regulations, particularly those that mandate action on renewable energy, are likely to increase the number of private sector green jobs in states. Regulations with clear guidelines and targets tend to reduce uncertainty in business, and can lead to increased private sector investment and job availability. This study provides practical lessons regarding the type and design of policy instruments and regulations on renewable energy, which effectively encourage green job growth.     

Environmental policy implementation during the economic crisis: an analysis of European member state ‘leader-laggard’ dynamics

ABSTRACT

The long-standing debate on environmental policy ‘leaders’ and ‘laggards’ lends itself to a new analysis following with the advent of the 2008 economic crisis. This paper, therefore, asks the question to what extent do European Union (EU) member states have the capacity and willingness to implement EU environmental policy amid austerity, budget cuts, and rising costs over the period 2008–2014. Building upon previous studies, 26 interviews with European, Greek and United Kingdom participants and records of environmental infringements, the paper provides a contemporary picture of the environmental policy ‘leader-laggard’ dynamic in Europe. The findings demonstrate that the impact of the economic crisis seems contestable and varies amongst member states, while the reduction in environmental infringements appears to have a link with the decrease in economic activity. Although environmental policy ‘leaders’ maintain patterns of strong implementation, the improved implementation performance of some ‘laggards’ reflects a shift in their implementation patterns amid a period of intense political and economic controversies.     

Between national soft regulations and strong economic incentives: local climate and energy strategies in Sweden

This paper contributes to the current discussion on whether ‘soft’ regulation actually influences policy outcomes by examining the effects of national policy instruments on municipal climate and energy planning. Sweden has experienced shifts in the incentive context over the last decades complementing soft planning regulations with stringent conditions for getting national economic support to local energy and climate action. We hypothesize that when soft regulations are surrounded by detailed conditions for getting state support, there will be higher degrees of local institutionalization of climate and energy strategies. The importance of economic support as part of national policy is confirmed by evidence from local energy and climate strategies and from interviews with local decision-makers. We also find that specific municipal features such as earlier municipal engagement in national support programs and relevant inter-municipal networks function as drivers for the institutionalization of local action.     

Project coordinators’ views on climate adaptation costs and benefits – justice implications

ABSTRACT

As local climate adaptation activity increases, so does the number of questions about costs, benefits, financing and the role that economic considerations play in adaptation-related decision-making and policy. Through five cases, covering a range of climate risks and types of adaptation measures, this paper critically examines Swedish project coordinators’ perceptions of costs and benefits in already-implemented climate adaptation measures. Our study finds that project coordinators make use of different system boundaries – on temporal, geographical and administrative scales – in their cost/benefit evaluations, making the practice of determining adaptation costs arbitrary and hard to compare. We further demonstrate that the project coordinators interpret costs and benefits in a manner that downplays the intangible environmental and social costs and benefits arising from the adaptation measures, despite their own experience of how such measures negatively impact upon social value. The exclusion of social and environmental costs and benefits has severe implications for justice, as it can bias decisions against people and ecosystems that are affected negatively. Based on the findings, we propose three tentative social justice dilemmas in local climate adaptation planning and implementation: 1. Cost and benefit distribution across scales; 2. The identification and valuation of non-market effects; and 3. The equitable allocation of costs and benefits.     

Leveraging the power of learning to overcome negotiation deadlocks in global climate governance and low carbon transitions

ABSTRACT

Learning among actors within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations helped transferring climate policies across countries and changed negotiation positions. Together with group pressure and leadership by key governments and non-national actors, experience, knowledge and belief-based learning types altered the UNFCCC negotiation dynamics and facilitated the Paris Agreement. Governments, the UNFCCC secretariat and NGOs created opportunities for government representatives to explore policy options and learn from each other’ successes of designing and implementing low carbon policies. These experience exchanges during and beyond the UNFCCC meetings were established to help countries share their experiences with low carbon economic development plans to address climate change while decoupling economic growth. Based on elite interviews, participant observation and document analysis, this contribution examines how learning facilitated breakthroughs in international climate negotiations. It finds that structured experience exchange of and reflection on other countries’ and non-national actors’ successful policy experiences can modify national interests as policymakers increasingly understand that climate action can support economic growth. This resulted in a higher willingness to take on more ambitious climate action commitments. Sharing experiences with climate policies can facilitate other actor’s learning how they can adapt successful policies to their specific framework conditions.     

Insurance sector management of climate change adaptation in three Nordic countries: the influence of policy and market factors

The insurance industry is important for facilitating climate change adaptation. Insurance companies’ involvement is, however, influenced by national adaptation policy. The literature suggests that especially policy factors – government interventions, political priorities and public–private cooperation – and market factors – cost offset, cost mitigation, planning flexibility and business opportunities – shape private actor approaches. To increase the understanding of insurance company involvement in adaptation, this study examines how insurance companies’ approaches are influenced by policy and market factors in three countries: Denmark, Norway and Sweden. The study found that the policy factors tested significantly shaped the approaches of the companies assessed, while market factors currently appear less influential. This is likely due to the absence of climate risk and adaptation in political debates and among insurance policyholders. The study discusses the potential role of the insurance industry in adaptation governance and suggests how barriers facing insurance companies could be overcome.     

A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING BASED APPROACH TO THE OPERATION OF A MULTI-RESERVOIR SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: An heuristic iterative technique based upon stochastic dynamic programming is presented for the analysis of the operation of a three reservoir ‘Y’ shaped hydroelectric system. The technique is initiated using historical inflow data for the downstream reservoir. At each iteration the optimal policies for the downstream hydroelectric generating unit are used to provide relative weightings or targets for operation of upstream reservoirs. New input inflows to the downstream reservoir are then obtained by running the historical streamflow record through the optimal policies for the upstream reservoirs. These flows are then used to develop a new operating policy for the downstream reservoir and hence new targets for the upstream reservoirs. The process is continued until the operating policies for each reservoir provide the same overall system benefit for two successive iterations. Results obtained from the procedure are compared to the results obtained by historical operation of the system. The procedure is shown to develop operating policies which give benefits which are as close to the historical benefits as can be expected given the choice of the number of storage state variables.     

Multiple Benefits of Carbon-Friendly Agricultural Practices: Empirical Assessment of Conservation Tillage

This study empirically estimates the multiple benefits of a subsidy policy that would offer payments to farmers in return for the adoption of conservation tillage, and compares the outcomes of alternative targeting designs for such a policy. The least-cost incentive payment policy schemes are simulated for the State of Iowa by using the data for roughly 12,000 National Resource Inventory (NRI) points. We use an economic conservation tillage adoption model to evaluate the costs of adoption and a physical process simulation model (EPIC) to estimate the environmental benefits due to adoption at each of the NRI points.Two targeting options are considered. We assess the costs and environmental consequences of a practice-based policy instrument (which maximizes the acres of land in conservation tillage, regardless of its level of environmental benefits) and contrast it to a performance-based instrument (which yields the highest amount of environmental benefits per dollar spent). Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils, reduction of soil erosion by wind and water, and the reduction in nitrogen runoff are considered as possible targets for the performance-based instruments. We find that the practice-based instrument provides high proportions of the four benefits relative to the policies that target the benefits directly, especially at the higher policy budget levels. Similarly, we estimate that targeting one of the four benefits individually provides high percentages of the other benefits as compared with the amounts of the benefits obtainable if they were targeted directly.     

Framing Dynamics and Political Gridlock: The Curious Case of Hydraulic Fracturing in New York

‘Fracking’ was on New York's agenda since 2008, yet no decision was made about it until late 2014. The gridlock is an intriguing puzzle given that the Marcellus shale is considered a ‘world class’ energy supply, and development has been aggressive in other US states. While policy scholars typically conceptualize gridlock as policy stability, this paper examines it as a dynamic process by which competing discourse coalitions engage in interactive framing processes that (re)structure the discussion. This suggests that the interaction between contending coalitions influences gridlock. Yet, we lack knowledge about interactive framing between competing coalitions during policy controversies. Our main finding is that a central mechanism of gridlock is the production of conflict through interactive framing dynamics that deny a shared discursive space capable of ushering in a consensus, or reasoned agreement. In New York, this contest evolved from a policy consensus about the economic benefits of fracking to policy negotiation that incorporated environmental threats, and to prolonged policy controversy in which competing discourse coalitions contested notions of fracking in relation to energy production, environmental protection, public health, economic development, and governance. While a ban has been instituted, the failure to bridge discourse coalitions suggests that controversy will persist unless meaning disputes are resolved.     

Democratising planetary boundaries: experts,social values and deliberative risk evaluation in Earth system governance

ABSTRACT

Recent debates about the concept of planetary boundaries recall longstanding concerns about whether ecological limits are compatible with ecological democracy. The planetary boundaries framework (originally set out in Rockström et al., 2009a, 2009b) defines values for key Earth-system processes such as climate change and biodiversity that aim to maintain a ‘safe’ distance from thresholds or levels that could endanger human wellbeing. Despite having a significant impact in policy debates, the framework has been criticised as implying an expert-driven approach to governing global environmental risks that lacks democratic legitimacy. Drawing on research on deliberative democracy and the role of science in democratic societies, we argue that planetary boundaries can be interpreted in ways that remain consistent with democratic decision-making. We show how an iterative, dialogical process to formulate planetary boundaries and negotiate ‘planetary targets’ could form the basis for a democratically legitimate division of labour among experts, citizens and policy-makers in evaluating and responding to Earth-system risks. Crucial to this division of evaluative labour is opening up space for deliberative contestation about the value judgments inherent in collective responses to Earth-system risks, while also safeguarding the ability of experts to issue warnings about what they consider to be unacceptable risks.     

The regional economic impact of reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Western Australia

This study analyses the general-equilibrium impacts of an international climate change response policy on the economy of Western Australia (WA), one of the most mining-based and energy-intensive states of Australia. It finds that emissions would fall by up to 11% from the base level in WA. However, such environmental benefits emanate at some costs to the state economy; in terms of foregone gross state product, the costs are up to 3% of the base level. Indeed, the actual costs and benefits depend on the precise design of the climate change response policy as well as on the other policies within which it operates. For example, when emission quota permits are sold to industries and no tradeable carbon credits (i.e. credits for the carbon sequestrated in Kyoto forests) are granted, emissions decline by about 8% and GSP falls by about 3% of the base levels. If carbon credits are tradeable, however, the environmental benefits could be increased and the GSP cost could be reduced substantially. Also, the reduced economic activity caused by emission abatement results in a modest fall in net government revenue, despite the additional revenue from permit sales in some cases. Accordingly, government’s fiscal package surrounding the emission permits would influence the emission abatement impacts on the economy. With regard to the effects on the structure of the state economy, the oil and gas industry suffers only a slight contraction but the energy-supplying sector as a whole contracts substantially. It is therefore not surprising that the impacts on the WA economy of curbing emissions by energy and transport industries alone are quite significant when compared to those resulted from all industries’ compliance with the abatement scheme. It needs to be noted that the model projections analysed in the paper are based on simplifying assumptions and tentative scenarios, and hence should be viewed with caution and not be understood as unconditional forecasts.     

Understanding the Scope of Farmer Perceptions of Risk: Considering Farmer Opinions on the Use of Genetically Modified (GM) Crops as a Stakeholder Voice in Policy

In the beginning, policy debates between critics and advocates of genetically modified (GM) crops focused on scientifically determined risks. Ten years later, the argument between environmentalists or consumers and regulators or industry has changed into a discussion about the implementation of more democratic policymaking about GM farming. A notable omission from the political debate about food biotechnology in the United States, however, is the opinion of farmers who cultivate the GM crops. Policymakers should value practical knowledge based on experiences from farmers, not only scientific industry reports or consumer product opinions. This project uses in-depth interviews to create an original mail survey that uses the practical discourse of farmers in order to explore the relationship of farmer attitudes and GM agriculture. Although national research indicates that larger yields are the most common reason for GM adoption, qualitative information suggest that the potential of GM crops to increase revenue per acre does not truly reflect all the concerns of modern farmers. For example, farmers who use GM seeds indicate that they constantly question the social impacts of their agricultural practices. As such, GM policies should be restructured as a political rationalization of both economic modeling and political theory because this research suggests that farmers’ business decisions are utility calucations that consider economics without ignoring environmental and political contexts. Farmers’ concerns about non-economic risks suggest that they need more information about GM crops and that governmental policies should respond to their interests, as they are more democratic or pluralistic than industry or consumer arguments.     

Early action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions before the commitment period of the Kyoto protocol: advantages and disadvantages

Current “business as usual” projections suggest greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized nations will grow substantially over the next decade. However, if it comes into force, the Kyoto Protocol will require industrialized nations to reduce emissions to an average of 5% below 1990 levels in the 2008–2012 period. Taking early action to close this gap has a number of advantages. It reduces the risks of passing thresholds that trigger climate change “surprises.” Early action also increases future generations' ability to choose greater levels of climate protection, and it leads to faster reductions of other pollutants. From an economic sense, early action is important because it allows shifts to less carbon-intensive technologies during the course of normal capital stock turnover. Moreover, many options for emission reduction have negative costs, and thus are economically worthwhile, because of paybacks in energy costs, healthcare costs, and other benefits. Finally, early emission reductions enhance the probability of successful ratification and lower the risk of noncompliance with the protocol. We discuss policy approaches for the period prior to 2008. Disadvantages of the current proposals for Credit for Early Action are the possibility of adverse selection due to problematic baseline calculation methods as well as the distributionary impacts of allocating a part of the emissions budget already before 2008. One simple policy without drawbacks is the so-called baseline protection, which removes the disincentive to early action due to the expectation that businesses may, in the future, receive emission rights in proportion to past emissions. It is particularly important to adopt policies that shift investment in long-lived capital stock towards less carbon-intensive technologies and to encourage innovation and technology development that will reduce future compliance costs.     

Air pollution control by economic incentives in the U.S.: Policy,problems, and progress

This paper deals with cost-effectiveness of the economic incentive policies of the bubble concept and offset credits relative to the policy of direct regulations of air emissions. The second section discusses single- and multi-plant bubbles, their adoption across regions and industries, the methods used to control emissions and the extent of savings in costs. We conclude that despite the delay resulting from duplication of review of state implementation plans by both the state and the Environmental Protection Agency, the required technological commands, the requirement to model air quality and the restrictions to permit bubbling only in the attainment areas, the policy is progressing successfully and should be encouraged by eliminating the restrictions. The third section analyzes the policy of emission offset credit, trading, and banking which can permit economic growth in nonattainment areas. It reviews the available literature, which deals only with aggregation of offsets across cities instead of individual offset trades. Progress by individual offset trades is analyzed in terms of the number of offsets, their acceptance across regions, the extent of reductions in emissions, and the classification of the offsets into internal and external trades. Comparison of estimated capital costs and prices of individual offsets with direct regulation costs reveals that the former are economical. We conclude that despite the problems of high tradeoff ratios, the short and uncertain life of the emission offset credits and the technological commands, the policy is progressing successfully and should be encouraged further by relaxing restrictions.This paper represents the author's personal views. Neither the Commission nor any member of its staff is in any way responsible for these views.