MULTITEMPORAL SCALE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

Abstract: An artificial neural network (ANN) provides a mathematically flexible structure to identify complex nonlinear relationship between inputs and outputs. A multilayer perceptron ANN technique with an error back propagation algorithm was applied to a multitime-scale prediction of the stage of a hydro-logically closed lake, Devils Lake (DL), and discharge of the Red River of the North at Grand Forks station (RR-GF) in North Dakota. The modeling exercise used 1 year (2002), 5 years (1998–2002), and 27 years (1975–2002) of data for the daily, weekly, and monthly predictions, respectively. The hydrometeorological data (precipitations P_(t), P_(t-1), P_(t-2), P_(t-3), antecedent runoff/lake stage R_(t-1) and air temperature T_(t) were partitioned for training and for testing to predict the current hydro-graph at the selected DL and RR-GF stations. Performance of ANN was evaluated using three combinations of daily datasets (Input I = P_(t)), P_(t-l), P_(t-2), P_(t-3), T_(t) and R_(t-l); Input II = Input-l less P_(t) P_(t-l), P_(t-2), P_(t-3); and Input III = Input-II less T_(t)). Comparison of the model output using Input I data with the observed values showed average testing prediction efficiency (E) of 86 percent for DL basin and 46 percent for RR-GF basin, and higher efficiency for the daily than monthly simulations.     

CO2 emissions reduction from the power system in India

The power system in India accounts for nearly one-third of CO₂ emissions of the country as a whole. A comparison of some of the technical options to reduce CO₂ emissions is presented in this paper. A linear programming framework is used to simulate the integrated optimal operation of the three regional grids, and it is shown that such operations lead to lower fuel costs and to lower CO₂ emissions. The same framework is used to see how a rise in thermal efficiency translates into a CO₂ emissions reduction. Reduced fuel requirements also lead to reductions in other pollutants ie SO₂, NO_x and fly ash. The reductions in CO₂ emissions and other pollutants are at far lower cost in the case of integrated optimal operations as compared to reductions due to gas fuelled generation or thermal efficiency improvements. However, thermal efficiency improvements under optimal integrated operations result in much higher reductions in operating costs, coal consumption and total emissions of all pollutants.     

WORLD ENERGY RESOURCES - LIMITS FROM TODAY'S GEOLOGICAL STANDPOINT

World fossil energy resources are estimated at about 12,500 times 10⁹ tons of coal equivalent (t.c.e.) of which 900 times 10⁹ t.c.e. are classed as presently recoverable reserves. Future exploration will transform a substantial part of the resources into reserves. Coal is by far the dominant fossil energy. Oilshales and tarsands represent a large energy potential, whose utilization depends on a high energy price level and progress in production technologies. Limits in the availability of oil and gas are visible now for the first time. Low-cost, high-grade uranium reserves are also limited. However, there are large amounts of low-grade uranium resources, which might become recoverable in the future. The use of geothermal energy is currently troubled by problems of technology, costs and environment.     

World energy future: the demand side challenge

Non-OECD countries will account for the greatest share of growth in future energy demand. Policy-makers, in response to public concern that the continued use of fossil-fuels could bring about global climate change have sought out policies which will reduce future energy demand. However, economic instruments which can do so, such as carbon taxes, provoke significant distributional and equity issues. Most OECD governments have set CO₂ reduction targets, but few of those targets are backed up by effective legislation and programmes. Instead, most governments seem to count on increasing energy efficiency, seemingly 'spontaneously', to bring about CO₂ reductions. Realization of OECD CO₂ reduction targets would be insignificant on a global scale, but they are nevertheless very ambitious when compared to recent changes in the OECD's energy-derived CO₂ emissions. Reliance on market forces alone may therefore not be enough.     

The regional impacts of small-scale gold mining in Amazonia

Gold mining is the major economic activity in the Upper Tapajós River Basin of the Brazilian Amazon. This article studies the structure, economy and impacts of gold mining operations in this region. Mining has significant environmental impacts in this region resulting in the removal of approximately 67 million m³ of sub-soil per year and accompanied by an annual release of some 12 tons of mercury to air, ground and rivers. In the early 1990s there were 245 mines in operation, employing some 30000 people and producing around 35t gold per year, valued at approximately $400 million yr^-1, the profits being about $110 million yr^-1. Miners spent most of their earnings on local goods and services, while mine owners and merchants in the gold towns invested in land (mainly for ranching), business ventures and money markets. Wealth gained from mining has served as an engine for development in other regions of the world and could, theoretically, achieve the same for Amazonia. However, before this could happen, the Government of Brazil would need to mark a strong presence in the area by providing technical assistance and developing and enforcing mining/environmental regulations. The likelihood of such a development materializing in the foreseeable future is small. In the meantime, gold mining acts, not as an 'engine for development', but as a destabilizing force — provoking environmental damage, social discord and public health hazards in the region.     

Operating Experience with Biogas Plants in Sri Lanka

Three hundred and three biogas plants, representing a majority of the units installed in Sri Lanka up to 1984, were inspected, and it was found that 280 of these had been put into commission at some time prior to the study. Of the 280 commissioned plants, 170 (61%) were functioning satisfactorily providing biogas for cooking and/or lighting. The remaining 110 (39%) were either not functioning or were supplying very little gas owing to gas leaks, inadequate input of dung, or poor plant management. The most common plant was the 6 m³, fixed dome, household plant, and the most common raw material used was cattle dung. In the majority of household plants the cost of construction was partly or wholly subsidized.     

The Amazon between economy and ecology

The soils of the Amazon's rainforests, unlike soils in rainforests in other parts of the world, have very low productivity. Experiments have shown that the Amazon's timber productivity of 2–3 m³ per year per hectare is considerably below that achievable in Northern Europe. Sustainable agricultural development therefore can be expected to be very low. However, the mineral resources of the Amazon are very extensive and offer a way to develop the Amazon without destroying the ecology, provided that some limits are set on non-mining activities.     

The Worldwide Availability of Fluorspar

This paper reviews a recent assessment of fluorspar reserves and resources for 13 market economy countries and the People's Republic of China, and how they relate to the overall availability of fluorspar on the world market. Current world production, consumption and world trade issues are discussed.
Nearly 5 million tonnes of fluorspar were produced in 1985, and approximately 60% of that enters the world export market. In recent years world trade has started to shift away from the acid, metallurgical and ceramic grades of fluorspar, as ore-producing countries look towards higher-value downstream products.
Total potentially recoverable fluorspar from 52 major producing mines and deposits is estimated at nearly 95 million tonnes (as of January 1985). The Republic of South Africa accounts for 31% of the reserves, with Mexico and the People's Republic of China each contributing 18%.
The average total cost and availability of fluorspar is evaluated. Approximately 75% of acid-grade fluorspar evaluated is potentially available at or below a 1985 constant-dollar cost of US$110 tonne⁻¹. Nearly 94% of metallurgical grades are potentially available at costs of US$75 tonne⁻¹ and below, and virtually all of the ceramic grades could be produced at costs below the 1985 reported market price of US$103 tonne⁻¹.     

Constraints to improved energy efficiency in agricultural pumpsets: the case of India

Supply to electrical pumpsets for irrigation purposes accounts for about 25% of the total electricity sold in India. The number of electrical pumpsets is expected to increase from 8.5 million in 1989–90 to 10.5 million in 1994–95. Low load factors (10–12%) and low densities (1–4 pumpsets/km²) mean large investments for the electric utility in order to supply electricity for irrigation. It is reported that there exists a potential to save at least 10% of the electricity supplied to this sector by means of simple retrofit measures. However, conditions in the field pose constraints to such retrofits. Some of those constraints are highlighted in this paper. It is also suggested that immediate attempts be made to ensure that all new connections are energy efficient. This paper suggests that the additional cost incurred to ensure new energy efficient connections and to maintain retrofit energy efficient pumpsets must be looked on as a necessary cost for energy efficiency.     

Hydrocarbon exploration and production in sub-Saharan Africa

In 1988, sub-Saharan Africa provided only 2.3 million bbllday of oil and 4 thousand million m³ of natural gas, representing respectively, approximately 4% and less than 1% of the world's supplies of those energy sources. This is surprising, given the extensive land area and the presence of sedimentary basins in many of the countries of the region. This paper explores the reasons for this relatively low production, details exploration efforts to date and makes recommendations for increasing investment in petroleum exploration in sub-Saharan Africa.     

烟气中汞现场监测氧化吸收条件优化研究

以高锰酸钾溶液作为烟气中汞元素的氧化吸收液,通过单因素试验研究了氧化吸收液浓度、反应时间、初始汞浓度、反应温度、pH值对KMnO₄对Hg⁰吸收效率的影响,阐明方法适应性,并将现行采样方法进一步优化。结果表明,15min后,氧化吸收基本平衡,KMnO₄浓度为5mmol/L,反应温度为60℃时KMnO₄氧化吸收最佳。强酸和强碱环境的吸收效率均高于中性条件,初始汞浓度变化对KMnO₄吸收效率的影响不大,抗冲击负荷的能力较强,最优实验条件下,氧化吸收效率提高显著,具有统计学意义。     

Impact of Technological Concepts on the Economics of Deep-Sea Petroleum Development

This paper presents the results of a study and general thinking devoted to the development of deepwater offshore hydrocarbon potential and evaluates the technical, economic and financial constraints related to such projects. To work out development prospects in these areas requires an examination of the different technological solutions put forward and their impact on the economic aspects of these projects. The study concludes that technologies already exist which make it economically feasible to develop deepwater offshore petroleum deposits if the price of petroleum is about US$20 barrel⁻¹.     

Joint submissions,output related payments and environmental co-operatives: Can the Dutch experience innovate UK agri-environment policy?

This paper describes three relatively recent innovations in the Dutch agri-environment programme which have helped nature management to be contiguous with natural features allowing the landscape to be managed whole rather than piecemeal—and thus generate higher quality and greater scope in environmental management. The first two, joint submissions by neighbouring farmers and payments related to the level of environmental output delivered, are scheme innovations. The third, Environmental Co-operatives (EC)—clubs of neighbouring farmers that inter alia co-ordinate and help manage the scheme innovations—is an institutional innovation. None has an equivalent in the UK. Evidence from interviews with farmer and non-farmer members, policy makers, academics and other interested parties show the role EC play in overcoming some of the postulated problems of the two scheme innovations. Not all the problems have been overcome, and cost-benefit analyses have not been conducted, nevertheless there is sufficient evidence to suggest that these innovations have benefited all actors involved: farmers, the government, the environment and the rural economy. Analysis of UK agri-environment policy using actor network theory (ANT) suggests the UK government will need to show similar levels of trust in and commitment to the farming community before these innovations could be introduced in the UK.     

Control strategies for vehicular NOx emissions in Guangzhou, China

Guangzhou is a city in southern China that has experienced very rapid economic development in recent years. The city's air has very high concentrations of various pollutants, including sulphur dioxide (SO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), ozone (O₃) and particulate. This paper reviews the changes in air quality in the city over the past 15 years, and notes that a serious vehicular-related emissions problem has been superimposed on the traditional coal-burning problem evident in most Chinese cities. As NOx concentrations have increased, oxidants and photochemical smog now interact with the traditional SO₂ and particulate pollutants, leading to increased health risks and other environmental concerns.
Any responsible NOx control strategy for the city must include vehicle emission control measures. This paper reviews control strategies designed to abate vehicle emissions to fulfill the city's air quality improvement target in 2010. A cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that, while NOx emission control is expensive, vehicular emission standards could achieve a relatively sizable emissions reduction at reasonable cost. To achieve the 2010 air quality target of NOx, advanced implementation of EURO3 standards is recommended, substituting for the EURO2 currently envisioned in the national regulations. Related technical options, including fuel quality improvements and inspection/maintenance (I/M) upgrades (ASM or IM240), are assessed as well.     

Energy and environmental issues in Vietnam

This paper discusses the pattern of commercial and traditional energy use in Vietnam and its evolution. It presents the trend of energy-related emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x during the past decade with a methodology given in an Appendix. Recent developments of environmental policies and institutions in Vietnam are also discussed.     

聚丙烯酰胺与植物联合抑尘效果的试验研究

如今颗粒物是我国大气环境污染的首要污染物之一,而土壤扬尘是大气颗粒物的主要来源,已经严重影响到大气质量及人们的生存环境,而聚丙烯酰胺不仅能促进植物生长,还能使土壤颗粒和孔隙结构保持稳定,控制土壤扬尘,因此通过聚丙烯酰胺与植物联合作用控制土壤扬尘排放对提升城市环境大气质量具有重要意义。本文在基于现有文献数据的基础上,以四川彭州市附近农田边裸露土壤为研究对象进行人工模拟对照试验,探讨了聚丙烯酰胺不同用量下与植物联合作用对抑尘效果的影响,以期为土壤扬尘污染的控制提供科学依据。研究表明:PM_2.5和PM₁₀的排放浓度随着聚丙烯酰胺的浓度增加而增加,随植被覆盖度的增加而减小。与植被覆盖作用相比,聚丙烯酰胺和植被覆盖的同时作用能更好的降低PM_2.5和PM₁₀排放浓度,PM_2.5浓度较之前平均下降了32.9%,PM₁₀浓度较之前相比平均下降了37.1%。通过对比实验数据可知,聚丙烯酰胺浓度在20 g/m²到25 g/m²时,整体抑尘效果最好,在施工7天时,PM_2.5和PM₁₀浓度平均下降了63.4%和77.9%,在施工1个月时,PM_2.5和PM₁₀浓度平均下降了和43.8%和56.3%。实验结论为利用聚丙烯酰胺和植物联合作用可以显著降低各时间段的土壤扬尘含量,为科学的治理土壤扬尘提供了理论参考。     

水驱气藏污水回注能力评价与指标预测

为避免水驱气藏产出污水排海而引起海洋污染问题,开展了水驱气藏回注能力评价技术研究:以物质平衡为基础,确定不同气水界面和饱和度分布下的可注入总量;建立井筒管流模型,确定不同注入量下的摩擦阻力、井底流压,预测注入泵压的变化趋势;提出了回注指标优化图版,可快速优化回注井的瞬时注入量。研究成果已初步应用于靶区首次污水回注试验,单井日注水规模达100~250 m³,回注总量为1.06×10⁴ m³,有效避免了地区的环境污染问题。     

微生物管式膜污水处理工艺试验与应用

某油田污水处理站设计处理规模1500 m³/d,实际处理量630 m³/d,处理工艺为“微生物接触氧化+加药絮凝沉淀+二级过滤”,在运行过程中投加的混凝剂等药剂成本高,且二级过滤器使用年限过长,其处理后出水无法达到Q/SYTH 0082—2020《油田注水水质规定》中油小于5 mg/L、悬浮物含量小于3 mg/L、粒径中值小于2μm的注水水质要求。该油田污水处理站开展了“特种微生物+低能耗管式膜”污水处理技术研究,并完成现场中试试验,处理后膜出水的悬浮物含量基本稳定在1 mg/L,出水水质达标,表明此工艺处理油田污水是可行和可靠的,为该油田污水处理工艺优化提供了可靠依据。     

Libya's Great Manmade River Project

When completed, Libya's Great Manmade River Project will transport through a system of pipelines 12–14 million m³ of water per day from the southern region of the country to the northern coastal areas. The system will provide water for municipal, industrial and agricultural users. This paper describes the project, the uses to which its water will be put and the institutional issues which need to be addressed when the Great Manmade River Project delivers vast quantities of water to the coastal areas. The biggest problem for Libya could be finding and training the vast numbers of technical people needed to manage and operate the system.     

Mineral potential and scope of investment in the Republic of Yemen

On 22 May 1990 the Yemen Arab Republic and Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen were unified to form the Republic of Yemen, with a population of about 14 million people in an area of about 580 000 km². The Republic of Yemen is hoping to develop its mineral industry. Possessing a well established geological database plus a newly issued mining law and investment law, Yemen is inviting all investors, whether from the Yemeni private sector or foreign companies, either solely or in joint ventures to investigate opportunities in minerals and construction and industrial materials.