连云港埒子口海域潮动力特征及其变化

为研究连云港埒子口海域潮流动力特征及其对周边海岸工程的响应,以及为治理埒子口闸下淤积问题提供参考,建立了基于有限体积法离散二维浅水方程的数值模型。采用实测水文资料对模型率定和验证,应用模型分析埒子口潮流动力特征和建设徐圩港防波堤和灌河口导堤后埒子口海域潮流动力的变化。模拟结果表明,建设工程后潮流动力变化较大,埒子口海域涨急流和落急流方向改变,涨、落潮平均流速均减小,距离工程区域越近,流速变化越大。埒子口海域潮流动力减弱将会加重上游挡潮闸的闸下淤积问题,致使埒子口排水不畅,进而增加沂北地区的洪涝风险,所以,相关部门应及时采取措施,保证埒子口排涝畅通。     

Coastal resource complexes of South India: options for sustainable management

India's coastal resource complexes were traditionally characterized by a continuum of 'common property resources' or 'commons' that stretched from the shores to the seas. The continuum aided the existence of sustainable livelihood systems for local communities. Today, fragmented policy approaches and economic welfare schemes have caused the disintegration of community control over the continuum. As a consequence, livelihood systems of local communities have declined. The introduction of coastal management guidelines in the 1990s has exacerbated the situation. With reference to a coastal village located in the State of Kerala in South West India, the paper describes the trajectory of unsustainable change that has taken place in the coastal area resource complexes of the country. The paper argues for restoring the continuum of commons in the study area through community driven systems of natural resource management that are based on networks of nested institutions.     

COMPREHENSIVE FLOOD PLAIN MANAGEMENT1

Flooding and the susceptibility to flood damage inherent in all land uses constitute the flood hazard. Resolution of the hazard while properly recognizing flood plain environmental attributes within the context of overall community or area needs is the essence of comprehensive flood plain management. The traditional approach–flood control–has effected modification of only the flooding component of the hazard whether it be coastal or inland. Until recently Federal programs have overlooked the possibilities of modifying the susceptibility component, for which the major responsibility lies with non-Federal interests. Beginning with actions in the TVA area, the latter is now being strongly encouraged through Federal programs and actions notably the Flood Plain Management Services and Survey Programs of the Corps of Engineers, those stemming from Executive Order 11296, and those required for eligibility under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968. Flood plain management objectives must be stated in planning, e.g., economic efficiency, reduction in threat to life and health, environmental improvement, and regional development, to permit proper evaluation of the optional means and approaches for achieving them.     

Assessing the bio-psychosocial correlates of flood impacts in coastal areas of Lagos,Nigeria

This paper explores the complex heterogeneous experiences of flood impacts based on a bio-psychosocial model of socio-economic, demographic, behavioural and environmental factors. Using ordinary least squares regression on a cross-sectional survey of 1003 individuals, flood impacts in three contiguous coastal neighbourhoods in Lagos, Nigeria, were modelled. The results show that approximately 52% of the variability in flood impact was accounted for by education, age, family structure, ethnicity, personal health concern and income. While involvement in coping was not a significant predictor of flood impacts, relocation emerged as a strong predictor. The inclusion of behavioural factors did not change the magnitude and significance of the relationship between demographic factors and flood impacts. However, the effects of age, education and personal health concern disappeared when environmental factors were controlled. The overall importance of the predictors for determining flood impact in decreasing order is as follows: income > coping strategies > ethnicity = participation in community development > family structure > personal health concerns > housing quality > reasons for living in residential locality > neighbourhood vulnerability to flood > housing vulnerability to flood.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A GIS‐BASED FLOOD INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR FLOODPLAIN MODELING AND DAMAGE CALCULATION1

ABSTRACT: This work presents a flexible system called GIS‐based Flood Information System (GFIS) for floodplain modeling, flood damages calculation, and flood information support. It includes two major components, namely floodplain modeling and custom designed modules. Model parameters and input data are gathered, reviewed, and compiled using custom designed modules. Through these modules, it is possible for GFIS to control the process of flood‐plain modeling, presentation of simulation results, and calculation of flood damages. Empirical stage‐damage curves are used to calculate the flood damages. These curves were generated from stage‐damage surveys of anthropogenic structures, crops, etc., in the coastal region of a frequently flooded area in Chia‐I County, Taiwan. The average annual flood damages are calculated with exceedance probability and flood damages for the designed rainfalls of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 year recurrence intervals with a duration of 24 hours. The average annual flood depth in this study area can also be calculated using the same method. The primary advantages of GFIS are its ability to accurately predict the locations of flood area, depth, and duration; calculate flood damages in the floodplain; and compare the reduction of flood damages for flood mitigation plans.     

Using Participatory Rural Appraisal to explore coastal fishing in Badagry villages,Nigeria

Fish production and marketing are as old as the rural communities involved in the lucrative occupation in Badagry area of Lagos State, Nigeria. A random sampling of 200 fishermen using Participatory Rural Appraisal techniques (PRA) in five Badagry villages was used to explore coastal fishing and socio-economic development in the study area with a view to enhancing local productivity and sustainability. The findings show that an average fisherman in Badagry is aware of the resources available in his environment, and can affect productivity levels positively if given adequate incentives. There are two lessons from this study; one has to do with what PRA tells us about the fishing community, the other is the importance of facilitators that have, amongst other things, good listening skills. The experience also revealed that field workers’ ability to listen and learn from local fishermen was a critical factor in collecting in-depth information that could be used for rural community planning.     

Land use in Korean tidal wetlands: impacts and management strategies

The coastal landscapes in southwestern Korea include a diverse array of tidal wetlands and salt marshes. These coastal zones link the ecological functions of marine tidal wetlands and freshwater ecosystems with terrestrial ecosystems. They are rich in biological diversity and play important roles in sustaining ecological health and processing environmental pollutants. Korean tidal wetlands are particularly important as nurseries for economically important fishes and habitats for migratory birds. Diking, draining, tourism, and conversion to agricultural and urban uses have adversely affected Korean tidal wetlands. Recent large development projects have contributed to further losses. Environmental impact assessments conducted for projects affecting tidal wetlands and their surrounding landscapes should be customized for application to these special settings. Adequate environmental impact assessments will include classification of hydrogeomorphic units and consideration of their responses to biological and environmental stressors. As is true worldwide, Korean laws and regulations are changing to be more favorable to the conservation and protection of tidal wetlands. More public education needs to be done at the local level to build support for tidal wetland conservation. Some key public education points include the role of tidal wetlands in maintaining healthy fish populations and reducing impacts of nonpoint source pollution. There is also a need to develop procedures for integrating economic and environmental objectives within the overall context of sustainable management and land uses.     

Remote sensing of coastal food resources

Since tidal marshes and estuaries cover large areas of the world's coasts and exhibit a very high net primary productivity, they offer a most important food source for an ever increasing world population. The food web of numerous estuaries and coastal waters is based on the primary productivity of coastal marshes that constitute centers of solar energy fixation and an important link in the mineral cycles. The fixed carbon and minerals enterthe water primarily as detritus where a complex food web makes them accessible to commercially important fish and benthic communities. With the launch of LANDSAT, NOAA-2, and Skylab, relatively high resolution spacecraft data became available for mapping and inventorying tidal marshes and their productivity on a global scale. Upwelling regions that attract large fish populations as well as other coastal water properties relating to the presence of finfish, Crustacea, and shellfish could be identified and observed. Using multispectral analysis techniques, classification accuracies greater than 80 percent have been obtained for most marsh plant species, and greater than 90 percent for key types such asSpartina alterniflora, which is the primary producer in large tide marshes of the coastal eastern USA. The capacity of remote sensors on spacecraft such as NOAA-2, LANDSAT, and Skylab to assess coastal food resources on a global scale is discussed from the point of view of resolution, classification accuracy, and cost effectiveness.     

An Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Land Cover on Flood Losses along the Gulf of Mexico Coast from 1999 to 2009

Major coastal flooding events over the last decade have led decision makers in the United States to favor structural engineering solutions as a means to protect vulnerable coastal communities from the adverse impacts of future storms. While a resistance‐based approach to flood mitigation involving large‐scale construction works may be a central component of a regional flood risk reduction strategy, it is equally important to consider the role of land use and land cover (LULC) patterns in protecting communities from floods. To date, little observational research has been conducted to quantify the effects of various LULC configurations on the amount of property damage occurring across coastal regions over time. In response, we statistically examine the impacts of LULC on observed flood damage across 2,692 watersheds bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, we analyze statistical linear regression models to isolate the influence of multiple LULC categories on over 372,000 insured flood losses claimed under the National Flood Insurance Program per year from 2001 to 2008. Results indicate that percent increase in palustrine wetlands is the equivalent to, on average, a $13,975 reduction in insured flood losses per year, per watershed. These and other results provide important insights to policy makers on how protecting specific types of LULC can help reduce adverse impacts to local communities.     

秦皇岛雷暴天气的时空尺度分布与雷电灾害分析

利用2003-2012年3～10月秦皇岛地区5个气象站雷暴监测和雷电灾害资料,采用数理统计、天气综合分析方法,得出秦皇岛地区雷暴天气的时空尺度分布特征为：全区年雷暴发生频次总体上呈递减趋势,其中,2005年35次,2008年33次,2012年20次;6月份为全年雷暴发生的峰值时段,7月、8月次之,且与秦皇岛本地主汛期相吻合;在海岸带地区由于受海洋条件影响,个别年份雷暴最早出现在2月份,最晚出现在11月中旬;雷暴天气的日时段主要出现在下午至傍晚,占70%,夜间占20%,其他时段为10%;北部山区的雷电频次大于沿海地区,对应电力、化工等行业雷电灾害呈下降趋势,但是通讯、计算机、家电等弱电系统雷击事件呈递增趋势。     

NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE AND THE COASTAL ZONE: A CASE STUDY OF HURRICANE ELOISE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents evidence that currently published flood insurance premiums may be insufficient to cover expected losses in coastal areas subject to hurricane. The problems of developing flood premiums in coastal zones are discussed and Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) reaction to these problems analyzed. Flood losses in the coastal zone of Bay County, Florida due to hurricane Eloise are compared with losses which would be predicted by the FIA. This comparison raises important questions concerning the adequacy of flood premiums in coastal zones and the undesirable indirect effects that underpricing flood risk will have on location decisions in the coastal floodplain.     

The dilemma of flood control in the United States

In spite of increasing annual expenditures for flood control, losses from flooding continue to rise in the United States. This seeming contradiction arises from overdependence on federally supported structural solutions to flood problems. Nonstructural controls are initiated reluctantly at local levels of government because of constitutional questions, restrictions of local tax bases, lack of federal subsidies for nonstructural solutions, and the high costs of delineating flood hazard areas. The success of the National Flood Insurance Program is doubtful since only about five percent of the flood-prone communities in the United States have qualified for the regular program. Future reduction of flood losses is dependent upon increasing popular awareness of flood hazards and altering federal subsidy policies to reduce the impact of local land-use regulations.     

Cumulative Impacts of Dock Shading on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina alterniflora</Emphasis> in South Carolina Estuaries

Salt marshes dominated by Spartina alterniflora and the associated networks of tidal creeks that drain them are characteristic geographical features of southeastern estuaries, important nursery habitat areas, and preferred sites for residential development. As the size of the coastal population increases, so has the number of requests for dock permits. With each new request for a dock permit, public concerns about the cumulative environmental impacts of dock proliferation on the coastal environment have increased. The objective of this particular study was to evaluate the impacts of shading by dock structures on stem densities of S. alterniflora in South Carolina coastal marshes. Shading impacts under individual docks were extrapolated to the tidal creek (local), county, and statewide scales. Dock structures were sampled both under and next to the walkway in the Charleston Harbor area of South Carolina. The density of S. alterniflora under docks was significantly lower than that which occurred next to the docks (i.e., 5 m away) for the short-form, tall-form, and both forms combined. We estimated that shading effects from dock structures in South Carolina decreased the stem density of S. alterniflora by 71%. Dock shading effects were small when evaluated from the perspective of the amount of marsh that occurs within specific tidal creeks (0.03–0.72%), in coastal counties at a maximum dock length (0.01–0.98%), or statewide (0.01–0.13%) at a maximum dock length. However, approximately 7,000 docks have been permitted over the last decade, resulting in a loss of salt marsh equivalent to 60 ha.1Denise M. Sangers present address: Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, 1362 McMillan Avenue, Suite 400 Charleston, South Carolina 29405, USA. 2 A. Frederick Hollands present address: Hollings Marine Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 331 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, South Carolina 29412, USA.     

盘锦近岸海域无机氮污染因子削减与预测

通过盘锦海域的海水质量和水文分析,建立盘锦海域潮流场模型。在不同输入条件下,利用潮流场模型对近岸海域的无机氮污染物含量变化响应进行模拟,得出3条河流(辽河、大辽河和大凌河)无机氮削减值,在此条件下可实现近岸海域无机氮达标要求。     

A Framework of Lessons Learned from Community-Based Marine Reserves and Its Effectiveness in Guiding a New Coastal Management Initiative in the Philippines

Community-based coastal resource management has been widely applied within the Philippines. However, small-scale community-based reserves are often inefficient owing to management inadequacies arising because of a lack of local support or enforcement or poor design. Because there are many potential pitfalls during the establishment of even small community-based reserves, it is important for coastal managers, communities, and facilitating institutions to have access to a summary of the key factors for success. Reviewing relevant literature, we present a framework of lessons learned during the establishment of protected areas, mainly in the Philippines. The framework contains summary guidance on the importance of (1) an island location, (2) small community population size, (3) minimal effect of land-based development, (4) application of a bottom-up approach, (5) an external facilitating institution, (6) acquisition of title, (7) use of a scientific information database, (8) stakeholder involvement, (9) the establishment of legislation, (10) community empowerment, (11) alternative livelihood schemes, (12) surveillance, (13) tangible management results, (14) continued involvement of external groups after reserve establishment, and (15) small-scale project expansion.These framework components guided the establishment of a community-based protected area at Danjugan Island, Negros Occidental, Philippines. This case study showed that the framework was a useful guide that led to establishing and implementing a community-based marine reserve. Evaluation of the reserve using standard criteria developed for the Philippines shows that the Danjugan Island protected area can be considered successful and sustainable. At Danjugan Island, all of the lessons synthesized in the framework were important and should be considered elsewhere, even for relatively small projects. As shown in previous projects in the Philippines, local involvement and stewardship of the protected area appeared particularly important for its successful implementation. The involvement of external organizations also seemed to have a key role in the success of the Danjugan Island project by guiding local decision-makers in the sociobiological principles of establishing protected areas. However, the relative importance of each component of the framework will vary between coastal management initiatives both within the Philippines and across the wider Asian region.Published on line     

Flood area and damage estimation in Zhejiang,China

A GIS-based method to estimate flood area and damage is presented in this paper, which is oriented to developing countries like China, where labor is readily available for GIS data collecting, and tools such as, HEC-GeoRAS might not be readily available. At present local authorities in developing countries are often not predisposed to pay for commercial GIS platforms. To calculate flood area, two cases, non-source flood and source flood, are distinguished and a seed-spread algorithm suitable for source-flooding is described. The flood damage estimation is calculated in raster format by overlaying the flood area range with thematic maps and relating this to other socioeconomic data. Several measures used to improve the geometric accuracy and computing efficiency are presented. The management issues related to the application of this method, including the cost-effectiveness of approximate method in practice and supplementing two technical lines (self-programming and adopting commercial GIS software) to each other, are also discussed. The applications show that this approach has practical significance to flood fighting and control in developing countries like China.     

Rising recreancy: flood control and community relocation in Houston,TX, from an environmental justice perspective

This article looks at issues of recreancy, environmental justice, and relocation as they relate to a flood control infrastructure project in inner city Houston. The main research questions were “What forms would recreancy take?” and “Can a project be environmentally just if recreancy is present?” Through the structural coding of 53 semi-structured interviews, recreancy was found even in a project where the sponsors used community cohesion as a guideline. This article illuminates the difficulties flood control project engineers face when working in local communities and argues that engineering issues are also social issues. Further, the relocatees within this flood control project voice some of the same concerns experienced by people relocated in other involuntary infrastructure development projects. The case outlined in this article could be used to better help those involuntarily relocated for flood control.     

Quantitative Assessment of the Intertidal Environment of Kuwait II: Controlling Factors

Multivariate analysis of variance, canonical correlation and canonical discriminate analysis were performed on environmental data collected from the Kuwaiti intertidal zone to determine the statistical relationships between the sediment, chemical, biological, spatial and temporal variables. The quantitative analysis showed that the sediment type was the paramount factor influencing the distribution and composition of the intertidal benthic fauna. The muddy, sandy and rocky shores support three distinct faunal communities. The seasonal variation in the benthic fauna community was not statistically significant but variation in biological data due to differences in transect location and tidal level were significant. This spatial variation has been attributed to differences in sediment and substrate types. The physico-chemical parameters were found to correlate positively with the mud content of the sediments but were unimportant in the overall composition of the intertidal fauna. This paper complements the results reported in Al Bakriet al. (1997–Part I) in establishing a valuable benchmark for assessing environmental impacts and for developing sustainable coastal zone management in Kuwait. The integrated approach outlined here could be adopted to develop a sound basis for the protection and management of coastal environments and resources in similar areas.     

A Probabilistic,Parcel‐Level Inundation Prediction Tool for Medium‐Range Flood Forecasting in Large Lake Systems

This study contributes a bathtub‐style inundation prediction model with abstractions of coastal processes (i.e., storm surge and wave runup) for flood forecasting at medium‐range (weekly to monthly) timescales along the coastline of large lakes. Uncertainty from multiple data sources are propagated through the model to establish probabilistic bounds of inundation, providing a conservative measure of risk. The model is developed in a case study of the New York Lake Ontario shoreline, which has experienced two record‐setting floods over the course of three years (2017–2019). Predictions are developed at a parcel‐level and are validated using inundation accounts from an online survey and flyover imagery taken during the recent flood events. Model predictions are compared against a baseline, deterministic model that accounts for the same processes but does not propagate forward data uncertainties. Results suggest that a probabilistic approach helps capture observed instances of inundation that would otherwise be missed by a deterministic inundation model. However, downward biases are still present in probabilistic predictions, especially for parcels impacted by wave runup. The goal of the tool is to provide community planners and property owners with a conservative, parcel‐level assessment of flood risk to help inform short‐term emergency response and better prepare for future flood events.     

海口湾人工填海前后冲淤演变数值模拟

为了解近年南海明珠项目、葫芦岛、秀英港扩建工程等人工填海工程对海口湾冲淤变化的影响,基于FVCOM海洋数值模型,对研究区人工填海前后潮流场、波浪场及冲淤变化进行了数值模拟。人工填海后,综合各条件下的冲淤情况,海口湾受潮流和波浪共同作用大部分区域处于淤积状态,年淤积量预测值为0.1～1.0 m;白沙角等局部区域处于侵蚀状态,年冲刷量预测值为0.1～0.3 m;受海口湾人工填海工程的影响,秀英港航道的水动力条件减弱,对通航条件改善有利,需加强航道的水深监测和定时的清淤工作;在南海明珠人工岛南侧波影区泥沙堆积会形成向海的舌状的突出体,其两侧海岸形成侵蚀后退带,需人工补沙等措施以保证岸线稳定。