A 21st-Century perspective on snow drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), there is a deep reliance on seasonal snowpack for maintenance of water resources. The term “snow drought” has recently emerged to describe periods of anomalously low snowpack. Unique seasonal patterns in precipitation and temperature that drive snow drought can have distinct hydrologic signatures, and these relationships have not been carefully studied in the UCRB. Here we examine snow drought with a new classification scheme using peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and the ratio of basin-wide modeled peak SWE to accumulated (onset to peak) precipitation (SWE/P) that clusters snow drought years into three distinct groups—“warm,” “dry,” and “warm & dry”—that minimize within-group variance. Over the period 1916–2018, we identify 14 warm years ($\overline{P}$ = 160 mm; $\overline{\mathrm{SWE}/P}$ = 0.24), 24 dry years ($\overline{P}$ = 117 mm; $\overline{\mathrm{SWE}/P}$ = 0.35), and 21 warm & dry years ($\overline{P}$ = 94 mm; $\overline{\mathrm{SWE}/P}$ = 0.23). An elevation-based analysis reveals two distinct patterns: warm snow droughts see severe SWE reductions primarily at lower (<2600 m) elevations (65% at lower elevations, 37% overall), whereas “dry” scenarios exhibit a consistent reduction across all elevations (39% overall). Using naturalized streamflow data, we also differentiate snow droughts by their earlier streamflow timing and decreased peakedness (warm: 7 days, 2%; dry: 7 days, 2%; warm & dry: 13 days, 5%). This research provides new insights into snow drought patterns relevant for regional water management.     

Novel dimensionless index for physically based assessment of thermal refugia characterizes off-channel habitat on gravel bed river

In the Willamette River, OR, main channel temperatures can be too warm for cold water fishes, causing fish to concentrate in secondary channel features that provide thermal refugia. However, temperature regimes vary among and within features. Improved understanding of physical processes controlling thermal regimes is needed. This study developed a dimensionless index for assessment of thermal refugia on the upper Willamette River. The novel hyporheic insolation (HIN) index uses minimal field measurements to predict thermal refugia resulting from buffering. Continuous water temperature measurements at one side channel, eight alcoves, and six beaver ponds provided data to ground truth calculated ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ predictions. Water temperature records were first used to characterize stratification at sites. Calculation of the Richardson number, an index of stability, showed two well-mixed sites and 13 stratified sites. At stratified sites, calculated ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ values characterized the ratio of cooling flux from hyporheic discharge to heat flux from incoming solar radiation. As ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ increased, measured temperatures at sites decreased. Despite overall scatter, a logarithmic fit to bin-averaged ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ values showed R² = 0.91. Calculations suggest that secondary channel features characterized by stratification and cool hyporheic discharge can provide thermal refugia. Accordingly, the HIN index may serve as a practical tool grounded in physical processes governing temperature across a floodplain.     

Modes of Variability of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in Mexico

The aim of this study is to identify temporal and spatial variability patterns of annual and seasonal rainfall in Mexico. A set of 769 weather stations located in Mexico was examined. The country was divided into 12 homogeneous rainfall regions via principal component analysis. A Pettitt test was conducted to perform a homogeneity analysis for detecting abrupt changes in mean rainfall levels, and a Mann‐Kendall test was conducted to examine the presence of monotonically increasing/decreasing patterns in the data. In total, 14.4% of the annual series was deemed nonstationary. Fourteen percent of the samples were nonstationary in the winter and summer, and 9% were nonstationary in the spring and autumn. According to the results, the nonstationarity of some seasonal rainfall series may be associated with the presence of atmospheric phenomena (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation). A rainfall frequency analysis was performed for the nonstationary annual series, and significant differences in the return levels can be expected for the scenarios analyzed. The identification of areas that are more susceptible to changes in rainfall levels will improve water resource management plans in the country, and it is expected that these plans will take into account nonstationary theory.     

Use of Hydrologic Landscape Classification to Diagnose Streamflow Predictability in Oregon

We implement a spatially lumped hydrologic model to predict daily streamflow at 88 catchments within the state of Oregon and analyze its performance using the Oregon Hydrologic Landscape (OHL) classification. OHL is used to identify the physio‐climatic conditions that favor high (or low) streamflow predictability. High prediction catchments (Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of (NS) > 0.75) are mainly classified as rain dominated with very wet climate, low aquifer permeability, and low to medium soil permeability. Most of them are located west of the Cascade Mountain Range. Conversely, most low prediction catchments (NS < 0.6) are classified as snow‐dominated with high aquifer permeability and medium to high soil permeability. They are mainly located in the volcano‐influenced High Cascades region. Using a subset of 36 catchments, we further test if class‐specific model parameters can be developed to predict at ungauged catchments. In most catchments, OHL class‐specific parameters provide predictions that are on par with individually calibrated parameters (NS decline < 10%). However, large NS declines are observed in OHL classes where predictability is not high enough. Results suggest higher uncertainty in rain‐to‐snow transition of precipitation phase and external gains/losses of deep groundwater are major factors for low prediction in Oregon. Moreover, regionalized estimation of model parameters is more useful in regions where conditions favor good streamflow predictability.     

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Total Dissolved Solids at the Karaj Dam

We applied multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks using data from two water quality monitoring stations at the Karaj Dam in Iran. Input data were calcium ions (Ca²⁺), magnesium ions (Mg²⁺), sodium ions (Na⁺), chloride ions (Cl^?), sulfate (), and pH, and the output data were total dissolved solids (TDS). An MLP with one hidden layer containing eight neurons was selected for the upstream water quality station using normalized input data. We developed a second MLP neural network for the downstream station with one hidden layer containing 10 neurons in the hidden layer using normalized input data. Considering applying normalized input data and one hidden layer, the coefficient of determination (R ²) and index of agreement (IA) between the observed and the predicted data for the upstream and downstream monitoring stations using the MLP neural networks were 0.985, 0.84, 0.99, and 0.92, respectively. The RBF neural network with 100 neurons in its hidden layer reached the minimum errors between the observed and the predicted results in upstream and downstream stations. The R ² between observed and predicted data for upstream and downstream monitoring stations for the RBF was 0.999 and 0.998, respectively. Data normalization improved the performance of the MLP neural networks. Sensitivity analysis indicated that magnesium is the most effective water quality parameter for predicting TDS, and sulfate is the second most effective water quality parameter affecting TDS prediction at the Karaj Dam.     

A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?

This paper develops a stylized supply–demand model for a mineral/nonrenewable commodity. It embodies important distinctions between short-run and long-run mineral supply and the derived demand for minerals as intermediate goods in production sectors with differing intensities of use. This framework is used to address the question: under what conditions might one expect to observe super cycles (i.e. cycles with a period of 20–70 years) in minerals prices? A plausible time path for GDP$GDP$ growth and the structural transformation that accompanies economic development in an emerging region is specified. Using these drivers and reasonable supply and demand parameters, price dynamics are simulated. The result is an asymmetric price cycle with a peak price that is about 250% above trend and an expansion phase that lasts for about 20 years. Thus, this simple model is capable of producing a single cycle with a frequency and amplitude in the range estimated in the empirical literature on super cycles. As other regions reach the development ‘take-off' phase, additional super cycles should emerge.     

Reinventing marine spatial planning: a critical review of initiatives worldwide

ABSTRACT

Although marine spatial planning (MSP) is increasingly being applied worldwide, it appears to be based on an ambiguity that has arisen from its dichotomous role of ensuring both conservation and development. This elusive ideal hints at a possible discrepancy between theory and practice. This paper explores the hypothesis that beyond a performative narrative, MSP is actually better described as a variety of devices which fulfil other roles and converge in terms of planning type. To test this hypothesis, this paper analyses the content of past and present MSP initiatives from around the world. The findings show that these initiatives view MSP either as a strategic sectoral spatial planning tool or strategic planning tool, brought in to complement existing initiatives. Furthermore, these two approaches can actually be seen to converge in the type of planning used, through the role attributed to spatial aspects, and more specifically in the place given to zoning. There are two key implications of these findings: the need to open up theoretical debates more broadly to different disciplinary perspectives on MSP; and the need for crucial choices to be made to ensure that MSP does not become an illusion behind which other agendas lie.

Highlights

• Several scientific communities are working on MSP in parallel

• MSP does not in reality fulfil its theoretical objectives, but it fulfils other roles

• We make a critical review of 44 experiences of MSP from throughout the world

• Different forms of MSP generally make similar uses of zoning

• MSP is both illusory and necessary and must engage a critical turn

     

Analysis on the performance of a high efficiency administrative building in Spain

A building is an element that consumes great quantities of primary energy both during construction and operating life. Buildings are reported to consume 40% of total primary energy in Europe. Efficiency and saving policies in this sector should be priority to reduce the European energetic dependence on third countries as well as to diminish greenhouse emissions.

The present work is aimed at review the results obtained during the first operating year of a public building with high energetic qualification in Mérida (Spain), which develops novel techniques on efficiency, energy saving and integration of renewable energies applied to the building sector. The building was constructed according to the climatic characteristics of Mérida. Diverse techniques regarding passive solar collection and thermal isolation, window and roofing shadowing and natural lighting were accounted for.

The results showed that it is possible to air-condition public buildings in extreme weather regions by applying specific measures to minimize energy consumption with the use of renewable energy sources (solar energy and biomass). Based on the actual energetic results, the economic, energetic, and environmental feasibility of this kind of building is also analyzed.     

A review on the potential of citrus waste for D-Limonene,pectin, and bioethanol production

Citrus peel waste is a valuable lignocellulosic feedstock for bioethanol production due to its richness in fermentable sugars and low lignin content. Citrus peel contains two major value-added products: d-limonene and pectin. d-Limonene is widely used in food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries. However, it acts as a microbial growth inhibitor for yeast during the fermentation process and hence it has to be removed prior to fermentation. Pectin is used as thickening agent, gelling agent, and stabilizer in the food industry. Since pectin increases the viscosity of the fermentation medium and makes fermentation troublesome, it has to be either extracted or degraded into galacturonic acid using pectinase enzyme. Thus, the removal and recovery of both D-limonene and pectin from citrus peel are essential for better fermentation. For bioethanol production, pretreatment plays a crucial role in the utilization of citrus peels since the reduction of d-limonene concentration to less than 0.05% is necessary. This review solely describes the potential of citrus waste for value added products such as d-limonene and pectin and the production of bioethanol from citrus peel waste is discussed in detail.     

Sustainability in the USA and New Zealand: explaining and addressing the implementation gap in local government

This paper describes the frustrating reality of sustainability implementation in the USA and New Zealand (NZ), an early adopter of sustainability mandates. Local government has a key role in implementation, but has been slow to uptake sustainable practices. We surveyed senior planners in small to medium-sized local government agencies in both countries to identify which features of local government support (or hinder) sustainability in practice.

Environmentally sustainable practices are not well entrenched in either country. In the USA, the framing of sustainability and public support are significant predictors of implementation. However, sustainability is rarely a priority. In NZ, local government capacity is the main driver of implementation. We recommend that planners promote sustainability values, reconcile economic development goals with sustainability (e.g., green economy model), and translate public support for sustainability into institutional priorities. NZ localities also need increased capacity and US localities need continued Federal and State support.     

Applying the concept of State of Good Repair to the management of ecological infrastructure

At any time, the condition of ecological infrastructure is related to the availability of funds to support operational management programmes. Environmental management outcomes are therefore often coupled to general economic conditions. When general economic conditions are favourable, investment in environmental management is often greater. This implies that environmental management frameworks need to be able to cope with the waxing and waning of economic conditions while still delivering acceptable environmental management and service delivery outcomes. At the onset of budget cuts, environmental managers therefore need effective ways of assessing the near and far future trade-offs of curtailing particular programmes in a defensible and internally consistent manner.

Operators of large civil infrastructure assets face the same problem. In response, the asset management community has developed the State of Good Repair approach. The objective of the preliminary consideration presented here was to determine whether this engineering management approach has any merit in environmental management.     

Modelling built-up land take in Europe to 2020: an assessment of the Resource Efficiency Roadmap measure on land

Land taken by artificial surfaces has an impact on the quality of life and ecosystems. To reduce possible negative impacts of land take, the European Commission proposed setting a milestone objective for 2020 in terms of future rates of land take.

This paper describes a methodology to model the impacts of the 2020 land-take milestone proposed in the RERM in the European Union 27 MS. An integrated modelling framework was configured to assess the spatial impact of two land-take scenarios: a ‘Reference’ scenario, which is driven by demographic and economic trends, and a ‘Target 0’ scenario that follows the 2020 land-take milestone proposed in the RERM. We conclude that the implementation of the 2020 land-take milestone, by reducing future land take in Europe, will foster more efficient use of land (less land taken for the same activity levels) and minimise negative impacts on non-artificial land uses.