环境风险评价构架的探讨

本文归纳并概括了国际上和我国环境风险评价的一般构架，从环境风险评价、安全评价、健康评价、生态评价、最大可信灾害事故及最大可接受水平等几个方面对我国环境风险评价一般构架进行了探讨，分析了我国环境风险评价构架中存在的问题，提出了进一步完善我国环境风险评价一般构架的方法，并辅以了案例分析。     

建设项目环境风险预测在环境影响评价中的应用

文章结合《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》，论述了建设项目环境风险评价的内涵以及建设项目进行环境风险评价的必要性，探讨了环境风险评价在环境影响评价中的应用并举出工程实例加以阐述。     

对区域环境风险评价的探讨

区域环境风险是指在某个区域，将要发生的建设项目可能具有的突发性事故所产生的后果对该区域环境有害影响的可能性。目前环境风险评价主要集中在预测对人类健康（人类健康风险评价）和环境资源（生态风险评价）的各种影响的发生概率。环境风险评价已从定量地评价和预测化学品的运行对环境未来影响的风险，发展到考虑物理干扰和生物链作用力的各种影响评价。区域环境风险评价与项目环境影响评价不同，它是根据某区域现有环境的特点，综合考虑拟定行动方案对该区域危害的最小化和发展可持续最大化。如区域发展方向的本质是环境难以承受的，那…     

突发污染事故风险源评价方法研究

突发污染事故风险评价方法是环境风险评价的重要组成部分,风险源评价结果关系到风险源的分类、分级和防范监管。概述了环境风险评价的概念和发展情况,从企业、公路、区域三类风险源对环境风险评价常用的方法进行了总结和评价,对我国环境风险评价方法提出了展望。     

浅议经济开发区环境风险评价

从经济开发区与建设项目环境风险的区别入手，分析了开发区环境风险评价的特点，并对开发区环境风险评价的内容及方法进行了阐述。通过实例分析，提出了适合于开发区环境风险评价的内容与模式，并提出在开发区环境风险评价方法上需要进一步丰富和发展的内容。     

对煤化工行业的环境风险评价方法的解读

结合具体实例，按照《建设项目环境风险评价导则》要求，对煤化工行业环境风险评价中，环境风险的等级确定、风险识别、源项分析、后果计算、风险计算与评价、风险管理措施和应急预案的制定等评价方法进行了分析。     

环境风险评价的实践与发展

环境风险评价（Environmental Risk Assessment ERA）是环境影响评价的一个重要分支,主要分析评价环境中的潜在危险。本文围绕开展ERA的必要怀、国内外ERA发展现状等方面进行了评述,在此基础上针对目前ERA工作中的不足提出了三点建议。     

风险预测在环境影响评价中的应用

论述环境风险评价与环境影响评价的关系以及开展环境风险预测的必要性，探讨环境影响评价中风险预测的方法并列举出工程实例进行阐述。     

工业园区氯碱项目环境风险预测评价——以新疆某城市工业园区氯碱项目为例

对工业园区引入的化工项目进行环境风险评价,是园区规划的重点工作之一。对氯碱生产项目潜在的环境风险环节进行识别和风险类型的确定,对发生泄漏性事故进行环境风险评价,预测了事故发生对环境的影响程度及范围。对事故发生后的风险提出防范和应急减缓措施,并对项目提出规划建议。     

污染场地再利用环境风险评价探讨

针对我国污染企业搬迁场地的风险特征、人体危害途径及环境风险评价存在的问题,从前期数据收集、毒性评价、暴露评价和风险表征4个方面探讨了污染场地健康风险评价的方法、步骤与内容;介绍了我国当前在污染场地风险评价中使用的法规与技术标准,归纳了环境风险评价存在的问题,提出了基于我国国情的场地风险评价研究建议。     

毒害污染物生态风险评价模型研究进展

随着化学品的使用种类和数量日益增加,有毒有害污染物的生态效应逐渐受到重视.生态风险评价模型作为较好的科研和管理技术工具,被越来越广泛地用于扩散到环境中化学物质的生态风险评价中;欧美等发达国家和地区已经建立了多个生态风险评价的模型,并投入到实际应用中.本研究系统综述和总结了毒害污染物生态风险评价模型的构建方法、种类、结构以及特征,归纳了重金属和有机污染物等主要毒害物质的风险评价模型发展状况,比较了几种较为成熟的风险评价模型的具体模块和特点,分析了模型在生态风险评价中的应用以及不足之处,在总结我国生态风险评价模型的研究方向和趋势的基础上,提出模型研究和发展的具体建议.     

Perspectives of the Scientific Community on the Status of Ecological Risk Assessment

/ Views from a wide variety of practicing environmental professionals on the current status of ecological risk assessment (ERA) indicate consensus and divergence of opinion on the utility and practice of risk assessment. Central to the debate were the issues of whether ERA appropriately incorporates ecological and scientific principle into its conceptual paradigm. Advocates argue that ERA effectively does both, noting that much of the fault detractors find with the process has more to do with its practice than its purpose. Critics argue that failure to validate ERA predictions and the tendency to over-simplify ecological principles compromise the integrity of ERA and may lead to misleading advice on the appropriate responses to environmental problems. All authors felt that many improvements could be made, including validation, better definition of the ecological questions and boundaries of ERA, improved harmonization of selected methods, and improvements in the knowledge base. Despite identified deficiencies, most authors felt that ERA was a useful process undergoing evolutionary changes that will inevitably determine the range of environmental problems to which it can be appropriately applied. The views expressed give ERA a cautious vote of approval and highlight many of the critical strengths and weaknesses in one of our most important environmental assessment tools.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; Ecology; Probability     

Application of environmental risk assessment for strategic decision-making in coastal areas: case studies in China

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool for analyzing potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts, and has found wide application in supporting decision-making processes over the last two decades. However, to date there has been no interrelated application of ERA to support the processes of strategic decision-making (SDM), especially in coastal areas.

In this paper, we attempt to verify the feasibility of the proposed integrated ERA–SDM approach and its methodology by applying it to two case studies (in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay) of the principal coastal functional zoning (PCFZ, a kind of SDM and similar to the coastal and marine spatial planning in western). The results show that the integrated ERA–SDM approach could integrate ERA into the entire SDM process, directly support the PCFZ, and avoid or mitigate dire environmental risk that can be introduced by SDM processes.     

Quantifying natural resource injuries and ecological service reductions: challenges and opportunities

The natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) provisions of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Oil Pollution Act (OPA) are complex and have been difficult to implement. The complexity and difficulty in implementation arise both from the assessment procedures specified in agency NRDA guidance and from the limited ability of ecologists to quantify impacts of hazardous substances on natural resources. This paper explores the scientific aspects of NRDA implementation, and discusses conceptual and methodological relationships between NRDA and the much broader field of ecological risk assessment (ERA). We discuss three critical components of the NRDA assessment approach: measuring natural resource injuries and reductions in resource services; evaluating causality; and establishing baseline conditions. We identify (1) specific approaches drawn from ERA practice that could improve each of these components, and (2) research needs and institutional changes that may improve the ability of the NRDA process to achieve its stated objectives. We recommend the acceleration of the ongoing dialogue among NRDA practitioners from the Trustee and PRP communities as a first step toward resolving the procedural and technical deficiencies of the NRDA process.     

Equivalent roaded area as a measure of cumulative effect of logging

A watershed disturbance index developed by the USDA Forest Service called equivalent roaded area (ERA) was used to assess the cumulative effect from forest management in California's Sierra Nevada and Klamath mountain ranges. The basins' ERA index increased as logging and road-building occurred and then decreased over time as management ceased and vegetation recovered. A refinement of the standard index emphasized disturbances in sensitive, near-channel areas, and evaluated recovery periods of 20, 30, and 50 years. Shorter recovery periods yielded better correlations between recovering forest systems and aquatic response than the longer recovery period, as represented by ERA and diversity or dominance, respectively. The refined ERA index correlated more closely with macroinvertebrate dominance and diversity information that was available for part of the study period. A minimum ERA threshold of 5% was detected, below which no effect to the macroinvertebrate community was observed. Above this threshold, elevated ERA values were associated with a decline in macroinvertebrate diversity and an increase in dominance of the top five taxa. Use of an ERA technique that emphasizes near-channel areas and biological thresholds would contribute to the Forest Service's implementation of ecosystem management.     

Probe into the method of regional ecological risk assessment-a case study of wetland in the Yellow River Delta in China

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a new field of study for evaluating the risks associated with a possible eco-environmental hazard under uncertainty. Regional ERA is more complex than general ERA, as it requires that risk receptors, risk sources, risk exposure, uncertainty and especially spatial heterogeneity all be taken into account. In this paper, a five-step process of regional ERA is developed and tested through a wetland case study in the Yellow River Delta in China. First, indices and formulas are established for measuring degrees of ecological risk and damage to ecosystems. Using a combination of remote sensing data, historical records and survey data, and with the assistance of GIS techniques, the indices and formulas are then applied to the wetland in the study area. On the basis of the assessment results, we propose a number of countermeasures for the various risk zones in the Yellow River Delta.     

Simulation of urban expansion patterns by integrating auto-logistic regression,Markov chain and cellular automata models

This research analyses urban expansion patterns and their eco-risks in the Poyang Lake region in China. A hybrid model consisting of auto-logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata (CA) is designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. An eco-risk assessment (ERA) index by integrating landscape fragmentation index and area weighted eco-service value index is established to promote the effectiveness for dynamically evaluating the environment and eco-security in watersheds. Scenario predictions are introduced to better understand the relationship between urban dynamics and their eco-risks. Three urban development scenarios such as historical development trend (HDT), environment protection priority (EPP) and goal-oriented restriction (GOR) are designed and transplanted into the CA model through the parameter self-modification method. The quantitative analysis results showed that in the period of the past five years, the urban growth primarily concentrated in the metropolitans. The simulations show that under the HDT scenario the urban growth will mainly emerge in the metropolitans, while under the EPP and GOR scenarios the urban growth will expand along with the metropolitans or the road networks and highways, respectively. Moreover, the ERA demonstrated that the GOR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of environment protection and urban sustainable development for the study area.     

Improving the TMDL Process Using Watershed Risk Assessment Principles

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. ERAs applied at the watershed scale have many similarities to the place-based analyses that are undertaken to develop Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), in which linkages are established between stressors, sources, and water quality standards, including support of designated uses. TMDLs focus on achieving water quality standards associated with attainment of designated uses. In attempting to attain the water quality standard, many TMDLs focus on the stressor of concern rather than the ecological endpoint or indicators of the designated use that the standard is meant to protect. A watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA), at least in theory, examines effects of most likely stressors, as well as their probable sources in the watershed, to prioritize management options that will most likely result in meeting environmental goals or uses. Useful WERA principles that can be applied to TMDL development include: development and use of comprehensive conceptual models in the Problem Identification step of TMDLs; use of a transparent process for selecting Numeric Targets for TMDLs based on assessment endpoints derived from the management goal or designated use under consideration; analysis of co-occurring stressors likely to cause beneficial use impairment based on the conceptual model; use of explicit uncertainty analyses in the Linkage Analysis step of TMDL development; and frequent stakeholder interactions throughout the process. WERA principles are currently most applicable to those TMDLs in which there is no numeric standard and, therefore, indicators and targets need to be developed, such as many nutrient or sediment TMDLs. WERA methods can also be useful in determining TMDL targets in situations where simply targeting the water quality standard may re-attain the numeric criterion but not the broader designated use. Better incorporation of problem formulation principles from WERA into the TMDL development process would be helpful in improving the scientific rigor of TMDLs.