坏消息

专家表示台风和天文大潮相叠加剧今年我国沿海台风灾害 10月15日,从国家海洋局获悉,与往年同期相比,今年造访我国的台风数量多、强度大,再加上台风登陆与天文大潮相叠,给我国沿海地区造成严重风暴潮、海浪灾害。对于今年台风频繁的原因,国家海洋环境预报中心副主任于福江表示,台风形成主要是受气候变暖、海温升高等客观环境的影响。7月到9月是台风密集生成时期,     

江苏省空气质量预报预警工作探析

江苏省重污染天气预报预警系统建设于2014年,系统集数据中心、预报中心和分析运算中心功能为一体。江苏省空气质量预报预警工作主要体现在常规预报、重污染天气预警预报、预报可视化会商3个方面,实行预报员轮值制度,在遇可能发生重污染天气时,及时向公众发布空气质量预警信息,预警信息中预警等级与条件遵循省政府修订的最新江苏省重污染天气应急预案。在冬春季污染频发时段,参与长三角区域空气质量可视化会商,遇重大活动期间参与周边省份及城市空气质量联合保障工作,积累了大量的预报预警工作经验。     

桂林市霾天气的潜势预报模型研究

利用2012年1月～2015年12月桂林国家基本气象站观测到的地面、高空气象观测资料及大气成分观测资料,从污染物浓度、水汽、风速、大气层结、降水等几个方面初选了29个预报因子,根据这些因子与霾天气相关程度,选取相关显著的因子,分别用事件概率回归、逻辑回归、指数叠加等3种方法建立桂林霾天气的潜势预报模型。结果表明:3种潜势预报模型中Logistic无论是在回报还是预报检验中效果都最好,其中在预报检验中空报率、漏报率、TS评分、准确率分别为32. 0%、34. 5%、50. 2%、80. 3%,事件概率回归、指数叠加建立模型效果稍差,但事件概率模型漏报率只有21. 4%。整体而言,3种模型预报效果稳定,TS预报评分都在50%左右,准确率均超过74%,在实际预报中有较好地参考价值。     

绿色奥运进行时

①南方罕见冻灾警示北京奥运会是否出现极端天气南方地区最近发生的罕见雨雪冰冻极端天气灾害再次提醒我们：大自然翻云覆雨,变化多端。北京市气象局专家介绍,根据对历史同期气象资料的综合分析和研究，今年北京奥运会举办期间发生极端天气的概率非常小。不过，北京奥运会将在8月8日揭幕，正值北京汛期，历史数据显示，平均两三天就可能有一次降雨。北京的气象工作者为了确保奥运会顺利举办，未雨绸缪，通过建立立体式全天候探测系统、集成国内外先进预报技术、选拔全国优秀天气预报员等方式，争取提前做出准确、隋细的预报，为奥运会保驾护航。     

青海南部地区大风天气分析和预报

大风天气是青海南部地区频繁发生的重大灾害性天气之一。本文通过普查该区1971—2000年风速大于等于17m／s的大风天气过程，得出大风分布特征，并用天气学方法对24h内本地有区域性大风（相邻三站以上）的42个天气过程进行了环流分型和诊断分析，总结归纳出了产生本地区域性大风的天气学指标，给出了大风预报的一般思路和预报着眼点。     

我国城市环境空气质量预报主要模型及应用

伴随着我国经济的快速增长和城市化进程的加快推进,大气污染已成为全国关注的热点问题。城市环境空气质量预报能实现环境空气质量与重污染天气的提前预报,支撑政府制定防治策略,提醒公众提前防范,减少自身暴露,减轻污染,我国已形成国家-区域-省级-城市四级城市环境空气质量预报体系。目前我国城市环境空气质量预报的主要模型包括多元线性回归、人工神经网络、NAQPMS、CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem及多模式集合预报体系等,对各类模型的应用现状进行分析并提出相应的建议。     

2003年青海大雨天气成因及预报分析

文章利用2003年5至10月逐日资料分析，对青海大雨天气过程的空间分布、高空环流形势进行了统计分析；着重探讨了低频重力波指数、假相当位温在大雨预报中的作用，初步得到了低频重力波指数、假相当位温配合高空环流形势制作青海高原地区大雨、暴雨的预报方法。     

万盛大气污染特征分析及污染预报模型的建立

利用2017年4月1日～2019年3月31日万盛经开区万东北路站点的空气质量日均值监测数据进行分析发现,万盛大气污染具有很强的季节变化特征,冬半年主要污染物为PM_(2.5),夏半年主要污染物为O_3,冬半年污染重于夏半年,颗粒物污染重于O_3污染。万盛污染以轻度污染为主,仅有冬季会出现中度以上污染天气,其首要污染物均为PM_(2.5)。利用多元回归模型和差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)建立了万盛PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)与O_3的预报模型。通过对模型得出的预报值与实况值的比较来看,预报与实况的变化趋势基本一致,均可以较好的指示未来AQI的变化趋势。多元回归预报模型中,O_3的预报效果要远好于PM_(2.5)和PM_(10);而ARIMA预报模型三者预报效果接近。总体来说,ARIMA (p,d,q)预报模型对颗粒物污染的预报效果要远好于多元回归预报模型,而O_3则两种模型预报效果接近。     

廊坊市霾天气湍流运动特征量统计分析

旨在对霾天气时大气边界层湍流运动进行深入分析,为大气污染防治提供依据,利用统计学方法对2016～2017年廊坊市霾天气时风脉动数据进行分析,得到轻微霾、轻度霾、中度霾、重度霾不同级别霾及静稳霾、混合霾、风霾不同类型霾时大气湍流物理量特征值,根据各物理量建立起霾的分类与分级方法,从湍流运动角度为霾的预报提供一些依据。     

基于颗粒物激光雷达的南充市一次沙尘污染过程分析

利用环境空气颗粒物自动监测数据、近地面气象数据和颗粒物激光雷达资料对南充市主城区2016年5月12日的沙尘气溶胶污染天气过程进行分析,并利用HYSPLIT模式对沙尘气溶胶的来源进行了模拟分析。结果表明:来自新疆盆地的沙尘气溶胶经高空远距离输送到达四川盆地上空后沉降造成南充市主城区的PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度极显著升高,PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)值极显著降低;沙尘天气过程中,风速、气温、相对湿度、气压、能见度和大气边界层高度等气象因子发生变化并对环境空气中颗粒物浓度产生影响,其中风速与PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)浓度间显著正相关,与PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)值间显著负相关;颗粒物激光雷达连续监测到整个沙尘气溶胶沉降过程,与地面环境空气自动监测数据变化趋势一致。在对盆地城市沙尘天气的环境空气质量进行预警预报时,将历史环境空气质量自动监测数据与常规气象因子数据、颗粒物雷达资料和后向轨迹等资料进行综合分析,能进一步提高沙尘天气条件下的空气质量预警预报准确度。     

Nontraditional settlement patterns and typhoon hazard on contemporary Majuro atoll,Republic of the Marshall Islands

Low-lying islands and atolls are particularly prone to storm surges created by tropical depressions and typhoons. This paper presents a case study of traditional and contemporary settlement patterns of Majuro, the capital of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and discusses its vulnerability to such storm surges. The paper shows that the application of traditional knowledge extends to the realm of urban planning and that, in fact, ignoring this traditional knowledge as expressed in pre-World War II settlement patterns, exposes urban development to increased flood hazards, a risk which may exact a price too high in life and property.     

Dry Weather Water Quality Loadings in Arid,Urban Watersheds of the Los Angeles Basin,California, USA1

Abstract: Dry weather runoff in arid, urban watersheds may consist entirely of treated wastewater effluent and/or urban nonpoint source runoff, which can be a source of bacteria, nutrients, and metals to receiving waters. Most studies of urban runoff focus on stormwater, and few have evaluated the relative contribution and sources of dry weather pollutant loading for a range of constituents across multiple watersheds. This study assessed dry weather loading of nutrients, metals, and bacteria in six urban watersheds in the Los Angeles region of southern California to estimate relative sources of each constituent class and the proportion of total annual load that can be attributed to dry weather discharge. In each watershed, flow and water quality were sampled from storm drain and treated wastewater inputs, as well as from in‐stream locations during at least two time periods. Data were used to calculate mean concentrations and loads for various sources. Dry weather loads were compared with modeled wet weather loads under a range of annual rainfall volumes to estimate the relative contribution of dry weather load. Mean storm drain flows were comparable between all watersheds, and in all cases, approximately 20% of the flowing storm drains accounted for 80% of the daily volume. Wastewater reclamation plants (WRP) were the main source of nutrients, storm drains accounted for almost all the bacteria, and metals sources varied by constituent. In‐stream concentrations reflected major sources, for example nutrient concentrations were highest downstream of WRP discharges, while in‐stream metals concentrations were highest downstream of the storm drains with high metals loads. Comparison of wet vs. dry weather loading indicates that dry weather loading can be a significant source of metals, ranging from less than 20% during wet years to greater than 50% during dry years.     

CHEMICAL CONSTITUENTS IN STORM FLOW VS. DRY WEATHER DISCHARGES IN CALIFORNIA STORM WATER CONVEYANCES1

ABSTRACT: This research evaluated concentration data for selected water quality parameters in selected California urban separate storm sewer systems during storm event discharges and during dry weather conditions. We used existing monitoring data from multiple regulatory agencies and municipalities originally collected for compliance or local characterization, which allowed systematic assessment of seasonal patterns over a wide region. Long term mean concentration for most parameters in most streams was higher during storm discharges than during dry weather flows to at least 95 percent confidence in 20 of 45 comparative evaluations, and lower statistical confidence in 22 other comparisons. Some regional differences emerged: in four evaluated streams in the San Francisco Bay Area, total concentration of lead, copper and zinc were lower during dry weather than during storm flows to at least 99.9 percent confidence, with only one exception; while the other four evaluated California streams showed the same tendency, but to much lower statistical confidence.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTRATROPICAL STORMINESS IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Climate change due to enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide is projected to change the circulation of the atmosphere, increase its moisture content, warm the surface layers, and increase precipitation. Extratropical storms are the intermediate agent in mid-latitudes between changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and surface water resources. The climatology of extratropical storms for the period 1885–1996 is presented, and major changes in storminess are detected across much of North America. General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of storm frequency and storm track are found to have little in common with the observed pattern of storms and evidence no systematic changes in response to an enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.     

Stream and Retention Pond Thermal Response to Heated Summer Runoff From Urban Impervious Surfaces1

Abstract: Runoff from parking lots during summer storms injects surges of hot water into receiving water bodies. We present temperature data collected near urban storm sewer outfalls in Blacksburg, Virginia, using arrays of sensors in a stream and a stormwater pond. Surges occurred roughly a dozen times per month, ranging up to 8.1°C with average duration 2 h in the stream and up to 11.2°C with average duration 7 h in the pond. Surges were larger in the pond due to a larger contributing watershed, no dilution by upstream water, and cool background temperatures near the outfall. Surges began abruptly, warming at rates averaging 0.2°C/min for periods of 5‐20 min. Surges dissipated as they propagated into the water bodies, travelling further in the stream (>19 m) than the pond (～10 m) consistent with greater advection in the stream. Surges were largest and most frequent in the afternoon but occurred at all times of day and night. Stream surges exhibited two phases: an early high‐temperature low‐volume input from the storm sewer and a later low‐temperature high‐volume input from upstream. Surges at the pond did not exhibit two phases, consistent with inputs only from storm sewers. Surges are likely common in urban areas, and may cumulatively have consequences for aquatic organisms, biogeochemical process rates, and even human health. Such effects may be compounded by urban heat islands and climate change, so prevention or mitigation should be considered.     

STORM CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTIVE-SCALE PRECIPITATION1

A classification scheme for convective precipitation, having applications in both analysis and modeling of meteorological and hydrological events, is presented. The method is based upon observations of rainfall at the ground, radar scans of storm events, and visible and infrared satellite imagery of larger storm systems. Empirical and theoretical frequency distributions are derived for total storm rainfall, rainfall duration and time between storms for each of the convective categories. This stratification is directly applicable to the experimental design and evaluation of weather modification projects and may be useful for the development and interpretation of meteorological and hydrological models. When atmospheric conditions limit storm development to cells, rainfall was seldom observed. Small clusters also produce small amounts of rainfall but have a longer lifetime than cells and are likely candidates for cloud seeding attempts to encourage their growth to large clusters. Large and nested clusters usually produce large amounts of natural precipitation. A few large storms account for most of a season's rainfall.     

新疆45年间不同强度等级沙尘暴天气空间格局年际变化趋势研究

通过对1960-2005年新疆54个气象站的气象资料进行分析,研究了新疆不同强度等级沙尘暴天气的时空分布年际演变趋势.结果显示：新疆各强度等级沙尘暴天气的发生区域均在逐年缩小,强沙尘暴、扬沙发生区域有东移的趋势,浮尘空间分布格局显现出向南退缩的趋势.沙尘暴空间格局变动较频繁没有明显的移动趋势.     

USE OF RADAR TO DERWE A STORM INTENSITY-DURATION CURVE1

ABSTRACT: Rainstorms which exceed the design capacity of conveyance systems and cause extensive damage to structures and property, occur frequently in Alberta. After such a severe storm, an early and quick assessment of the storm's location and magnitude and the corresponding frequency for various duration (storm intensity-duration curve) is often required to estimate the damage. The storm intensity-duration curve is produced with information obtained from a sparse network of recording raingages, thus, creating a high degree of uncertainty in the result. Short-duration precipitation is usually quite variable in Alberta; hencea very dense network of recording precipitation stations would be required to provide precise measurements of the storm intensity-duration curve at all locations. Such a dense network does not exist in Alberta; it would be very expensive to install, maintain, and thus difficult to justify financially. One solution for obtaining a large amount of closely spaced in-intensity-duration values is to use weather radar. Using weather radar data, intensity-duration curves could be produced routinely for any set of prespecified locations. The radar data thus have the potential for facilitating the identification of the return period of rainfall events quickly, cheaply, and precisely when the long-term intensity-duration curves are available. As a pilot project to demonstrate the feasibility of the method and the potential of the radar data, computer software was developed to derive from archived radar data, intensity-duration values for up to a 2,500 2 area for a given storm.     

CONTINUOUS SIMULATION OF RECEIVING WATER QUALITY TRANSIENTS1

: This paper presents solutions to the one-dimensional, transient conservation of mass equations for the coupled biochemical oxygen demand-dissolved oxygen (BOD-DO) reactions, based on the principle of superposition, for continuously discharging plane sources. The solutions are applied within the framework of a continuous simulation model to allow the derivation of water quality frequency curves and frequency histograms of consecutive hourly dissolved oxygen violations, for any desired standard. Receiving water response is determined for waste inputs from urban wet weather, dry weather, and upstream sources. An application to Des Moines, Iowa, and Des Moines River indicated that urban storm water impacts on the stream can be masked in the cumulative frequency curve representation, but the benefits of storm water control are clearly shown in frequency histograms of the duration of consecutive stream standard violations.     

POSSIBILITIES OF INCREASED WATER SUPPLY FROM CLOUD SEEDING1

ABSTRACT. A review of the development of weather modification to augment precipitation including the cloud-physical foundation is presented. Recent work has tended to re-emphasize the importance of physical understanding of storm systems and of the effects of cloud seeding. The Pyramid Lake Seeding Project is discussed.