城市蓝天保卫战行动协同控制局地大气污染物和温室气体效果评估——以唐山市为例

为满足在城市层面开展蓝天保卫战行动、协同控制局地大气污染物和温室气体效果评估的管理需求,本文构建了评估方法体系,明确了评估流程,并梳理了评估参数获取途径。本文所推荐的协同减排量核算方法和协同控制效果评估方法包括:采用排放因子法计算各措施的单项大气污染物和单项温室气体减排量,计算各措施的局地大气污染物当量(LAPeq)和二氧化碳当量(CO_2-eq)减排效果,进而采用协同控制效应坐标系分析和协同控制交叉弹性分析开展协同控制效果评估。本文以唐山市2018年蓝天保卫战行动为案例,选择12项子措施开展试点评估,结果显示:这12项子措施在减排LAPeq 13 840.89 t/a的同时,可协同减排温室气体1 009.43万t CO_2-eq/a;所评估的措施均位于协同控制效应坐标系第一象限;协同控制交叉弹性Els CO2-eq/LAPeq为6.66,即每减排1个百分点的LAPeq,可协同减排6.66个百分点的温室气体。研究表明,本文所提出的评估方法体系具有较好的适用性,可推广应用于城市蓝天保卫战行动协同控制局地大气污染物和温室气体评估工作中。     

An integrated model for technology forecasting to reduce pollutant emission in China's pulp industry

The Chinese government has been implementing a strict pollutants gross control policy during the 11th Five Year Plan period. Primary pollutants reduction (COD & SO₂) is one of the major concerns of industrial environmental management. This paper constructs a technology selection model for industrial pollutants reduction by incorporating mass flow analysis of the production system, bottom-up modeling methodology, and linear programming for optimizing annualized discounted cost. A case study of COD emission control is carried out on the Chinese pulp industry, the nation's leading source of industrial COD discharge. The model is used to generate and analyze the technology prospects and COD emission situations under various scenarios for 2010, 2020 and 2030.     

经济集聚、收入差距对水污染影响的时空分析——基于中介效应和动态空间门槛效应检验

本研究将经济集聚、收入差距和化学需氧量（COD）排放强度纳入统一框架下，构建时空双向固定效应的动态空间杜宾模型（DSDM）和门槛空间动态面板模型（SDPTM），通过中国2011-2020年省级面板数据实证检验，考察经济集聚和收入差距对COD排放强度的影响机制。研究发现：①经济集聚呈“先促排、后减排”的倒“U”形特征，具有本地空间减排效应和空间溢出减排效应；②收入差距呈非线性的倒“N”形特征，具有本地空间减排效应，经济集聚在收入差距对COD排放的影响中存在门槛效应，当经济集聚超过门槛值1.1164时，收入差距的促排和减排效应均明显增强；③收入差距呈倒“N”形特征，具有空间溢出减排效应，且收入差距的长期空间溢出减排效应明显减弱；④收入差距在经济集聚时对COD排放强度的影响中起部分中介效应；⑤COD排放强度具有显著的时间和空间路径依赖性，经济集聚对COD排放的空间依赖特征的影响具有显著的区域异质性。     

The potential contribution of sustainable waste management to energy use and greenhouse gas emission reduction in the Netherlands

Future limitations on the availability of selected resources stress the need for increased material efficiency. In addition, in a climate-constrained world the impact of resource use on greenhouse gas emissions should be minimized. Waste management is key to achieve sustainable resource management. Ways to use resources more efficiently include prevention of waste, reuse of products and materials, and recycling of materials, while incineration and anaerobic digestion may recover part of the embodied energy of materials. This study used iWaste, a simulation model, to investigate the extent to which savings in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions can be achieved in the Netherlands through recycling of waste streams versus waste incineration, and to assess the extent to which this potential is reflected in the LAP2 (currently initiated policy). Three waste streams (i.e. household waste, bulky household waste, and construction and demolition waste) and three scenarios compare current policy to scenarios that focus on high-quality recycling (Recycling+) or incineration with increased efficiency (Incineration+). The results show that aiming for more and high-quality recycling can result in emission reductions of 2.3 MtCO₂ annually in the Netherlands compared to the reference situation in 2008. The main contributors to this reduction potential are found in optimizing the recycling of plastics (PET, PE and PP), textiles, paper, and organic waste. A scenario assuming a higher energy conversion efficiency of the incinerator treating the residual waste stream, achieves an emission reduction equivalent to only one third (0.7 MtCO₂/year) of the reduction achieved in the Recycling+ scenario. Furthermore, the results of the study show that currently initiated policy only partially realizes the full potential identified. A focus on highest quality use of recovered materials is essential to realize the full potential energy and CO₂ emission reduction identified for the Netherlands. Detailed economic and technical analyses of high quality recycling are recommended to further evaluate viable integrated waste management policies.     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

Involving Stakeholders in Building Integrated Fisheries Models Using Bayesian Methods

A participatory Bayesian approach was used to investigate how the views of stakeholders could be utilized to develop models to help understand the Central Baltic herring fishery. In task one, we applied the Bayesian belief network methodology to elicit the causal assumptions of six stakeholders on factors that influence natural mortality, growth, and egg survival of the herring stock in probabilistic terms. We also integrated the expressed views into a meta-model using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. In task two, we used influence diagrams to study qualitatively how the stakeholders frame the management problem of the herring fishery and elucidate what kind of causalities the different views involve. The paper combines these two tasks to assess the suitability of the methodological choices to participatory modeling in terms of both a modeling tool and participation mode. The paper also assesses the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology provides a flexible tool that can be adapted to different kinds of needs and challenges of participatory modeling. The ability of the approach to deal with small data sets makes it cost-effective in participatory contexts. However, the BMA methodology used in modeling the biological uncertainties is so complex that it needs further development before it can be introduced to wider use in participatory contexts.     

Potential CO2 Emission Reduction by Development of Non-Grain-Based Bioethanol in China

Assessment of the potential CO₂ emission reduction by development of non-grain-based ethanol in China is valuable for both setting up countermeasures against climate change and formulating bioethanol policies. Based on the land occupation property, feedstock classification and selection are conducted, identifying sweet sorghum, cassava, and sweet potato as plantation feedstocks cultivated from low-quality arable marginal land resources and molasses and agricultural straws as nonplantation feedstocks derived from agricultural by-products. The feedstock utilization degree, CO₂ reduction coefficient of bioethanol, and assessment model of CO₂ emission reduction potential of bioethanol are proposed and established to assess the potential CO₂ emission reduction by development of non-grain-based bioethanol. The results show that China can obtain emission reduction potentials of 10.947 and 49.027 Mt CO₂ with non-grain-based bioethanol in 2015 and 2030, which are much higher than the present capacity, calculated as 1.95 Mt. It is found that nonplantation feedstock can produce more bioethanol so as to obtain a higher potential than plantation feedstock in both 2015 and 2030. Another finding is that developing non-grain-based bioethanol can make only a limited contribution to China’s greenhouse gas emission reduction. Moreover, this study reveals that the regions with low and very low potentials for emission reduction will dominate the spatial distribution in 2015, and regions with high and very high potentials will be the majority in 2030.     

Managing carbon emissions in China through building energy efficiency

This paper attempts to analyse the role of building energy efficiency (BEE) in China in addressing climate change mitigation. It provides an analysis of the current situation and future prospects for the adoption of BEE technologies in Chinese cities. It outlines the economic and institutional barriers to large-scale deployment of the sustainable, low-carbon, and even carbon-free construction techniques. Based on a comprehensive overview of energy demand characteristics and development trends driven by economic and demographic growth, different policy tools for cost-effective CO₂ emission reduction in the Chinese construction sector are described. We propose a comprehensive approach combining building design and construction, and the urban planning and building material industries, in order to drastically improve BEE during this period of rapid urban development. A coherent institutional framework needs to be established to ensure the implementation of efficiency policies. Regulatory and incentive options should be integrated into the policy portfolios of BEE to minimise the efficiency gap and to realise sizeable carbon emissions cuts in the next decades. We analyse in detail several policies and instruments, and formulate relevant policy proposals fostering low-carbon construction technology in China. Specifically, Our analysis shows that improving building energy efficiency can generate considerable carbon emissions reduction credits with competitive price under the CDM framework.     

Photochemical model evaluation of the surface ozone impact of a power plant in a heavily industrialized area of southwestern Spain

The characterization and evaluation of the impact that an industry is likely to have on the surrounding ozone levels is one of many problems confronting air quality managers and should be taken into consideration when authorizing its installation. The correct management of an environment, in terms of monitoring existing industries and planning new activities, requires adequate knowledge of the processes sustained by the industrial emissions therein.This paper explores the improvements in air quality management arising from taking into account the uncertainties involved in the photochemical modeling of the impact of an industry on surface ozone levels.For this, we evaluate the impact on ozone levels of a power plant located in an industrial area of southwestern Spain (Huelva). The evaluation takes into account the effects of both emissions' uncertainty and the non-linear chemistry between ozone and its precursors, thus providing a probable range of increase over the normative values (hourly and 8-hourly maximums) defined in the European Directive. The proposed methodology is easily applicable by air quality managers.Advanced modeling techniques were used for the power plant assessment, MM5 atmospheric modeling system, and air quality model CAMx. The results from meteorology and ozone forecasts have shown acceptable agreement with the observations.The spatial distribution of the impact is found to be strongly determined by mesoscale meteorological processes, which are reinforced by the local orography; there is also a marked temporal evolution. The industrial plume is observed to induce a decrease (or maintenance) of the ozone levels near the emission source (0–10 km), and an increase in the ozone concentrations farther away (with maximums between 10 and 50 km). In fact, in the meteorological episodes with a predominance of local breeze circulations, impacts have been detected at distances of more than 100 km from the emission source.Sensitivity of the power plant impact to variations in ozone precursor emissions is described, and the scenarios and the points in the domain presenting higher sensitivity and registering larger impacts are also identified. The results show that the largest impacts take place in emission scenarios where the NO_x has been reduced with respect to the base case scenario. In contrast, in scenarios where the VOC emissions are reduced with respect to the base case scenario, the impact is smaller or remains unchanged. This is important in areas like the study case, where there is a high percentage of biogenic VOC emissions and the industrial areas are close to natural protected areas and agricultural fields.     

Potential energy production from organic waste and its environmental and economic impacts at a tertiary institution in Palestine

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is one of the most well-known biomass resources that can be utilized to produce renewable energy. Numerous countries are plagued by the proliferation of waste, particularly organic waste that can be utilized for energy recovery. Palestine suffers from inefficient solid waste management, and only recently have a few projects focused on bioenergy production been implemented. Throughout the years, the city of Tulkarm experiences power outages which cause a challenge to the Palestine Technical University-Kadoorie campus in Tulkarm. Thus, the possibility of energy recovery from the organic portion in Palestine Technical University-Kadoorie was evaluated. The analysis of an economic impact included discussions of a number of economic aspects, including Levelized cost of energy, internal rate of return, present worth, annual worth, and payback period. On the other hand, a carbon dioxide savings analysis and gas emission were evaluated. The outcomes of the energy optimization demonstrated that the suggested system could supply the institution with an average of roughly 7 MWh of electrical energy. According to the economic study, this project offers 0.25 million dollars in present value, 0.144 million dollars in annual value, a 13 percent internal rate of return, a payback period of 6 years, and a levelized cost of energy of 0.11 dollars for each kWh generated. Additionally, the environmental assessment revealed that this system might reduce CO₂ emissions by around 8,343,778 tons. For effective waste management, energy recovery, and emission reduction, it is advised to implement anaerobic digestion technology.     

Application of the DPSIR framework to environmental degradation assessment in northern Ghana

In many communities in northern Ghana, the environment has been altered by complex natural and human driven forces with significant impact on the lives of their inhabitants. The need to formulate an improved, holistic and consistent methodological approach to assess the problem is critical for sustainable natural resource management. This paper examines the potential of the DPSIR environmental assessment framework utilizing GIS‐based participatory methodology in the assessment of environmental degradation in northern Ghana. Community truthing tools such as key informant interviews, focus group discussions, participant observation and participatory Geographical Information Systems (GIS) were employed as a means of soliciting societal responses integrated to conventional GIS spatial analysis to measure the indicators of the Driving force–Pressure–State–Impacts–Response (DPSIR) assessment framework. Post classification GIS imagery results show a marked natural vegetation decrease of 634 km2 (42%) of the study area with a corresponding increase of 600 km² (39%) of grasses and built‐up and barren environment in the period of 14 years from 1990 to 2004. This is attributed to extreme climatic conditions and human driven causes such as poverty, population growth, migration and land tenure system. Poverty reduction strategies, amendment of the Mining and Mineral Law (PNDC law 153), improvement of the existing land tenure system and the control of migrants and Fulani herdsmen from neighbouring Burkina Faso were some of the solutions selected by the research participants, to be emphasized in the National Environmental Action Plan (EPA Act 490). This paper concludes that the DPSIR environmental assessment framework is an effective means of organizing complex environmental information to facilitate policy decision making.     

Clarifying relationships between participatory approaches,issues, processes,and results,through crosscutting case analysis in Japan’s environmental,energy, and food policy areas

Participatory public engagement approaches such as Consensus Conferences, Deliberative Polling^®, and Planning Cells have been used to try and resolve environmental disputes in Japan; however, the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches have not been analyzed adequately or comprehensively. This paper evaluates practical applications of each of the above participatory approaches and conducts a crosscutting analysis of these applications to evaluate how effectively each approach provides scientific information to participants and to consider how the quality of deliberations that occur during these processes affect their outputs. Based on existing classification of participatory processes, and methodology for public involvement in US environmental decision-making, this study compares and contrasts the processes and outcomes of 25 participatory planning case studies in Japan. After compiling a case inventory of participatory approaches, the features of one approach are documented using qualitative analysis, and the aspects of four other approaches are confirmed using crosscutting analysis. In so doing, the likely strengths and weaknesses of each approach are suggested as follows. When discussions require an understanding of scientific knowledge, the Consensus Conference tends to be more suitable than the DP approach. If the consensus of participants is expected, the Consensus Conference is also thought to be suitable. But through a DP process or Simplified Planning Cells approach, we can know the quantitative portion of each opinion through results of ballots. In sum, new participatory approach that incorporates strengths of the Consensus Conference and the Simplified Planning Cells into Local Environmental Planning is needed. Thus, the quality of consensus building could be improved.     

Sensitivity analysis of ground-level ozone concentration to emission changes in two urban regions of southeast Texas

Air pollutant emission is one of the predominant factors affecting urban air quality such as ground-level ozone formation. This paper assesses the impact of changing emission inventory scenarios, based on combinations of point, mobile, area/non-road and biogenic sources, on the tropospheric ozone concentration in two southeast Texas urban areas, i.e. Houston-Galveston and Beaumont-Port Arthur, during the rapid ozone formation event (ROFE) on August 25, 2000. The EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with 1999 national emission inventory (NEI99) estimates and updated SAPRC99 chemical mechanism are used in the sensitivity analysis for twelve different emission scenarios. Based on model results, it is found that the point source emission of NOx and VOC contributes the greatest ozone peak in the ROFE. Removing Texas point sources of VOC and NOx emission from the inventory results in a reduction in peak O3 concentration by 128 and 70 ppbv in Houston urban area, respectively. Similar but less drastic impact from point source is also observed in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. The effect on peak ozone concentration due to mobile, area and non-road sources emissions are less significant compared to that of point source emission. Reducing VOC emission appears to be more effective than reducing NOx emission in lowering peak O3 concentration in the studied region. Although biogenic emission can contribute up to 37 ppbv of peak ozone level over a large area, the affected area is away from the urban region of concern, and should not be the main cause for O3 non-attainment in the two urban areas. Removing CO emission from mobile sources does not lead to significant reduction (< 1 ppbv) in ozone concentrations. The modeled data also show that the transport of O3 precursors from adjacent states can cause a significant ozone plume near Beaumont due to its proximity to the state border based on the conditions during the August 25, 2000 O3 episode.     

Source resolution and risk apportionment to augment the Bubble Policy: Application to a steel plant “bubble”

Source resolution and risk apportionment of emission source categories for risk reduction purposes can be used to enhance the Bubble Policy of the Clean Air Act. This is performed by incorporating receptor modeling techniques of factor analysis and chemical mass balances to assess noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic inhalation risks to a target population for certain pollutants coming from major emission source categories in a steel plant air shed. Source resolution, using factor analysis, statistically interprets a “source” from ambient data. By subsequently quantifying risks from identified metal emission sources using chemical mass balances and risk apportionment, a total additive risk from main source contributors in the steel plant is estimated. From this methodology, the Bubble Policy can be enhanced by targeting only main risk sources or by “risk-trading” with minor impact sources to reduce the total risk (if deemed significant) without arbitrarily reducing risk for all sources in an industrial source complex’s “bubble.”     

Implementing the UNCCD: Participatory challenges

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) emphasizes the need for public participation in land degradation assessment and rehabilitation. While participatory approaches are supported by a growing body of research and practice, meaningfully involving the people affected by land degradation is far from straightforward. This paper investigates the challenge of using the UNCCD as a guide to influence community participation in policy‐making and practice at national and local levels by analyzing experiences from three southern African countries. We show that the UNCCD represents a useful normative framework for addressing degradation problems, but that the participatory ethos is difficult to enact at the national level. Whilst there is increasing evidence that combining local and scientific knowledge using participatory mechanisms can deliver the benefits that the Convention strives to achieve, communication between researchers and practitioners, and those involved in implementing the UNCCD at the national level needs to be strengthened. Broad lessons and best practices in incorporating participatory practices into policy development are elucidated. Our case studies show that a range of mixed‐method, interdisciplinary approaches can enable policy‐makers and practitioners to meaningfully engage those who are affected by land degradation in its definition, assessment and rehabilitation.     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

对燃油征税的区域能源环境影响研究:以中国为例

控制汽柴油消费对中国的能源安全和环境保护有着重要意义.燃油税和碳税是中国近期两种主要的已经或可能施加于燃油的税收政策.以自回归分布滞后模型为核心,本研究构建了一个燃油税和碳税的区域能源环境影响评估模型.利用模型估计了我国的燃油需求价格弹性,测算了燃油需求响应,计算了在相同CO2减排目标下,提高汽油消费税、提高柴油消费税、引入碳税三种政策情景下各省份预计产生的节能效应、减排效应和税收效益.研究结果显示,在相同的CO2减排目标下,第一,在不同情景下,各省份节能程度差异均有限,但节能数量均体现出区域匹配性,燃油消费越多的省份,节能数量一般越多,且提高汽油消费税的全国节能总量最大;第二,在引入碳税情景下,各省份CO2减排比例差异最小;第三,在全国层面,三种政策情景中空气污染物(PM2.5和NOx和SO2)减排数量均为提高汽油消费税>引入碳税>提高柴油消费税,但在提高柴油消费税情景下,有4/5的省份预计PM2.5排放减少程度超过14%.除此之外,提高汽油消费税的税收收益最大.     

Decomposing patterns of emission intensity in the EU and China: how much does trade matter?

We use data from the World Input-Output Database to examine channels through which CO₂ emissions are embodied within, and imported into, the European production in 2005 and in 2009. We use an input–output price model to simulate the effect that a rise in the price of emissions trading system (ETS) allowances would have on the final price of goods. We find a reduction in emission intensity, which was greatest in those sectors regulated under ETS. Finally we examine the trade between China and the EU to study possible increases in carbon leakage. Results show that emissions embodied in imported intermediate goods have increased in all sectors.     

The Climate Value of Cycling

The reduction of CO₂ emissions constitutes one of the largest challenges of the current era. Sustainable transportation, and especially cycling, can contribute to the mitigation of CO₂ emissions since cycling possesses an intrinsic zero‐emission value. Few studies have been conducted that appraise the CO₂ reduction potential of cycling. Opportunity costs enable the estimation of avoided CO₂ emissions resulting from bicycle trips. The methodology developed in this research allows the attribution of a climate value to cycling by substituting bicycle trips with their most likely alternative transportation modes and calculating the resulting additional CO₂ emissions. The methodology uses data on the current modal shares of cycling mobility, the competition of cycling with other transportation modes, and CO₂ emission factors to calculate the climate value of cycling. When it is assumed that the avoided CO₂ emissions of cycling mobility could be traded on financial carbon markets, the climate value of cycling represents a monetary value. Application of the methodology to the case of Bogotá, Colombia — a city with a current bicycle modal share of 3.3% on a total of 10 million daily trips — results in a climate value of cycling of 55,115 tons of CO₂ per year, corresponding to an economic value of between 1 and 7 million US dollars when traded on the carbon market.     

基于混合生命周期评价模型的我国食物系统水资源消耗及二氧化碳排放核算

食物生产不仅依赖水资源,同时产生大量二氧化碳排放,这种资源环境影响存在于食物系统整个产业链。为促进食物系统节水降碳,本文构建了包含5大类共23种具体食物部门的混合生命周期评价模型,对各类食物系统的完全水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放进行了核算与比较。结果表明：①不同食物的水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放差异明显,动物性食物的平均水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放强度分别为植物性食物的1.9 ～ 15.0倍和1.9 ～ 2.7倍;②食物系统直接和间接水资源消耗占比较为接近,但二氧化碳排放主要源自上游产业链的间接排放,占比高达80.9%;③食物系统间接水资源消耗主要来自农业部门,而间接碳排放主要来自电力生产和供应业、基础化工原料制造业、非金属矿产品行业和交通运输业;④从营养元素供给看,动物性食物提供蛋白质和脂肪的资源环境影响高于植物性食物,蔬菜和主食分别在提供维生素C和碳水化合物上具有最小的环境成本。基于本文结果,食物系统节水应主要提高生产环节用水效率,而降碳则主要依靠上游产业减排,特别是发电和化肥生产等行业的协同节水减碳潜力。同时,本文结果也可为未来基于环境影响制定膳食指南提供数据支撑。