The role of climatic variations on migration and human health in Africa

In Africa, climatic variations, as typified by widespread rainfall fluctuations, are a prominent feature of the climate of the continent. The effects of these climatic variations are multifarious and affect the environmental, economic and social well-being of the societies concerned. This is particularly so since the majority of the people depend on rain supported agricultural production for their sustenance and livelihood. Any short-fall in the amount, frequency and manner of occurrence of the rains received, tends to reflect on the people's spatial behaviour, particularly as migration in trying to make up for the impact of the deficit. This paper describes the nature of climatic variations over the continent and highlights the extent to which climatic variations play a significant role in population movement and the health of peoples as documented in studies carried out in different parts of the region. An awareness of the implications of climatic variations as reviewed in this work suggests the need for better monitoring systems to measure the impacts of climatic variations. This will provide governments and all stakeholders with a proper perspective of the vagaries of climate and enhance the development of suitable policies to mitigate and alleviate the impact on the general populace of the affected areas. This is especially important in the face of changing world climate and its antecedant effects which are especially felt in developing societies.     

HEAVY RAINSTORMS IN CHICAGO: INCREASING FREQUENCY,ALTERED IMPACTS,AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Operations of a dense raingage network in the Chicago area since 1989 provided data to assess the temporal and spatial distributions of heavy rainstorms. The 12‐year average was 4.4 storms per year, 40 percent more than in the 1948 to 1980 period, reflecting an ongoing Midwestern increase in heavy rains. The total rainfall from the 53 heavy rainstorms maximized over the city, reflecting previous observations that the influence of the city and Lake Michigan on the atmosphere causes an increase in heavy rains. Impacts from the record high number of eight storms in 2001 revealed that efforts to control flooding including the Deep Tunnel system, had reduced street and basement flooding in the moderate intensity storms, but the two most intense storms, each with 100‐year rainfall values, led to excessive flooding and a need to release flood waters into Lake Michigan. Results suggest continuing increases in the number of heavy rainstorms in future years, which has major implications for water managers in Chicago and elsewhere.     

Development of the Spatial Rainfall Generator (SRGEN) for the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender Model

Accurate spatial representation of climatic patterns is often a challenge in modeling biophysical processes at the watershed scale, especially where the representation of a spatial gradient in rainfall is not sufficiently captured by the number of weather stations. The spatial rainfall generator (SRGEN) is developed as an extension of the “weather generator” (WXGEN), a component of the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. SRGEN generates spatially distributed daily rainfall using monthly weather statistics available at multiple locations in a watershed. The spatial rainfall generator as incorporated in APEX is tested on the Cowhouse watershed (1,178 km²) in central Texas. The watershed presented a significant spatial rainfall gradient of 2.9 mm/km in the lateral (north‐south) directions based on four rainfall gages. A comparative analysis between SRGEN and WXGEN indicates that SRGEN performs well (PBIAS = 2.40%). Good results were obtained from APEX for streamflow (NSE = 0.99, PBIAS = 8.34%) and NO₃‐N and soluble P loads (PBIAS ≈ 6.00% for each, respectively). However, APEX underpredicted sediment yield and organic N and P loads (PBIAS: 24.75‐27.90%) with SRGEN, although its uncertainty in output was lower than WXGEN results (PBIAS: ?13.02 to ?46.13%). The overall improvement achieved in rainfall generation by SRGEN is demonstrated to be effective in the improving model performance on flow and water quality output.     

AN IRRIGATION SCHEDULING MODEL WHICH INCORPORATES RAINFALL PREDICTIONS1

ABSTRACT In humid areas appreciable amounts of rainfall complicate irrigation scheduling. This rainfall tends to give supplemental water application a low priority. As a result irrigation may be delayed until there is not enough time to cover the crop area before some drought damage occurs. To improve the management of irrigation systems, a scheduling model has been developed. The model's water application decisions incorporate climatological records, soil-plant data, current pan evaporation and rainfall, the number of fields to be irrigated, and 5-day weather forecasts. The model updates the soil moisture conditions, predicts impending water depletion, and if supplemental water is needed both the field priority and amount to be applied is indicated for each of the next 5 days. Errors introduced through the use of forecasts and long-term pan evaporation records have been slight because of the tri-weekly updating. Also natural rains which restore the root zone to maximum water holding capacity prevent long-term bias.     

METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE AUGUST 27-28, 1971, NEW JERSEY FLOOD1

ABSTRACT. This paper describes the meteorological patterns that produced the combination of heavy rains in August 1971 that resulted in record floods in New Jersey. Daily and hourly precipitation data and selected recurrence frequencies of rainfall amounts are tabulated. History of previous heavy rainfalls in New Jersey indicates that occurrences of very heavy rains are frequently associated with tropical disturbances. Flood damages, fatalities, warnings issued and areas of record river stages are summarized.     

Effects of Rainfall and Ground‐Water Pumping on Streamflow in Mākaha,O’ahu,Hawai’i1

Abstract: Land‐use/land‐cover changes in Mākaha valley have included the development of agriculture, residential dwellings, golf courses, potable water supply facilities, and the introduction of alien species. The impact of these changes on surface water and ground water resources in the valley is of concern. In this study, streamflow, rainfall, and ground‐water pumping data for the upper part of the Mākaha valley watershed were evaluated to identify corresponding trends and relationships. The results of this study indicate that streamflow declined during the ground‐water pumping period. Mean and median annual streamflow have declined by 42% (135 mm) and 56% (175 mm), respectively, and the mean number of dry stream days per year has increased from 8 to 125. Rainfall across the study area appears to have also declined though it is not clear whether the reduction in rainfall is responsible for all or part of the observed streamflow decline. Mean annual rainfall at one location in the study area declined by 14% (179 mm) and increased by 2% (48 mm) at a second location. Further study is needed to assess the effect of ground‐water pumping and to characterize the hydrologic cycle with respect to rainfall, infiltration, ground‐water recharge and flow in the study area, and stream base flow and storm flow.     

A PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE FOR DEVELOPING ISOHYETS IN AN ARID AREA USING VEGETATION AND TOPOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS1

A technique is presented for developing an isohyet map for the Hualapai Valley, a closed hydrologic basin of about 315 square miles in the northwestern Great Basin in Nevada. In this basin there is practically no climatic data, and in the northwest Great Basin there are too few stations for determination of rainfall on a detailed basis. Using a vegetational typing to represent a range in elevation and precipitation, an initial mean annual rainfall is determined for selected points on a grid pattern. This rainfall is then modified by using topographic parameters of slope, orientation, exposure, and rainfall shadow effect. The resulting point determinations of mean annual rainfall are then smoothed using a trend surface analysis, and an isohyetal map is drawn from the smoothed points. The technique provides an estimated accuracy of one inch of mean annual precipitation and one mile of resolution on isohyets.     

A TECHNIQUE FOR MEASURING RAINFALL POTENTIAL1

ABSTRACT The roles played by thermodynamic stability and precipitable water in the production of rainfall are of prime importance. These two variables have been combined into a “Rainfall Potential” function by the use of multivariate statistical techniques. Data from weather stations in southern New Mexico and southwest Texas were used in the study. The results appear promising for further investigation, possibly in relation to the occurrence of rare but extremely heavy rains     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE1

To aid in planning and design of additional flood protection on the Lower Rio Grande, the Hydroraeteorological Branch prepared a probable maximum precipitation study for the International Boundary and Water Commission (United States and Mexico) and the Republic of Mexico. Five drainages from 2,000 to over 17,000 square miles in area between Falcon and Anzalduas Dams including Rio San Juan and Rio Alamo in Mexico are the areas of concern. The great rains of hurricane Beulah, September 19–24, 1967 verified that additional protection is needed. Procedures for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are described. A particular problem was to estimate rainfall potential for the Sierra Madre Oriental in Rio San Juan and Alamo drainages. These mountains form a north-south windward-facing slope and barrier of over 7000 feet in elevation. A detailed study was made of rains from hurricane Beulah. The storm produced the greatest known rain depths in North America for 50,000 square miles or greater, and durations longer than 48 hours.     

Optimisation of rainwater tank design from large roofs: A case study in Melbourne, Australia

Rainwater tanks for larger roof areas need optimisation of tank size, which is often not carried out before installation of these tanks. This paper presents a case study of rainwater tank evaluation and design for large roof areas, located in Melbourne, Australia, based on observed daily rainfall data representing three different climatic regimes (i.e. dry average, and wet years). With the aim of developing a comprehensive Decision Support Tool for the performance analysis and design of rainwater tanks, a simple spreadsheet based daily water balance model is developed using daily rainfall data, contributing roof area, rainfall loss factor, available storage volume, tank overflow and irrigation water demand. In this case study, two (185 m³ and 110 m³) underground rainwater tanks are considered. Using the developed model, effectiveness of each tank under different climatic scenarios are assessed. The analysis shows that both the tanks are quite effective in wet and average years, however less effective in dry years. A payback period analysis of the tanks is preformed which reveals that the total construction cost of the tanks can be recovered within 15-21 years time depending on tank size, climatic conditions and future water price increase rates. For the tanks, a relationship between water price increase rates and payback periods is developed. The study highlights the need for detailed optimisation and financial analysis for large rainwater tanks to maximise the benefits.     

Rainfall conditions and rainwater harvesting potential in the urban area of Khartoum

Runoff water management is among the inherent challenges which face the sustainability of the development of arid urban centers. These areas are particularly at risk from flooding due to rainfall concentration in few heavy showers. On the other hand, they are susceptible to drought. The capital of Sudan (Khartoum) stands as exemplary for these issues. Hence, this research study aims at investigating the potential of applying rainwater harvesting (RWH) in Khartoum City Center as a potential urban runoff management tool. Rapid urbanization coupled with the extension of impervious surfaces has intensified the heat island in Khartoum. Consequently, increased frequency of heat waves and dust storms during the dry summer and streets flooding during the rainy season have led to environmental, economical, and health problems. The study starts with exposing the rainfall behavior in Khartoum by investigating rainfall variability, number of raindays, distribution of rain over the season, probability of daily rainfall, maximum daily rainfall and deficit/surplus of rain through time. The daily rainfall data show that very strong falls of >30 mm occur almost once every wet season. Decreased intra- and inter-annual rainfall surpluses as well as increased rainfall concentration in the month of August have been taking place. The 30-year rainfall variability is calculated at decade interval since 1941. Increasing variability is revealed with 1981–2010 having coefficients of variation of 66.6% for the annual values and 108.8–118.0% for the wettest months (July–September). Under the aforementioned rainfall conditions, this paper then explores the potential of RWH in Khartoum City Center as an option for storm water management since the drainage system covers only 40% of the study area. The potential runoff from the 6.5 km² center area is computed using the United States Natural Resources Conservation Services method (US-NRCS), where a weighted Curve Number (CN) of 94% is found, confirming dominant imperviousness. Rainfall threshold for runoff generation is found to be 3.3 mm. A 24,000 m³ runoff generated from a 13.1 mm rainfall (with 80% probability and one year return period) equals the drainage system capacity. An extreme rainfall of 30 mm produces a runoff equivalent to fourfold the drainage capacity. It is suggested that the former and latter volumes mentioned above could be harvested by applying the rational method from 18% and 80% rooftops of the commercial and business district area, respectively. Based on the above results, six potential sites can be chosen for RWH with a total roof catchment area of 39,558 m² and potential rooftop RWH per unit area of 0.033 m³. These results reflect the RWH potential for effective urban runoff management and better water resources utilization. RWH would provide an alternative source of water to tackle the drought phenomenon.     

ACCIDENTAL AND PLANNED WEATHER MODIFICATION IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Weather modification, both planned by man and that accidentally produced by man, has been under intensive study in Illinois for ten years. Most everyone in Illinois and the Midwest is living in a climate that now is modified inadvertently from its natural state. State atmospheric scientists have tackled weather modification through a series of interrelated studies beginning with climatic studies (to establish the background), experimental design studies, experimental field studies to verify changes and their causes, and finally socio-economic and environmental studies to measure the impacts of weather modification. Studies at St. Louis show that the city acts as a trigger of summer clouds and rainfall leading to 4 to 6 summer days with 3 cm or more rain somewhere just east of the city. Power plants and jet aircraft also accidentally produce climatic changes. A focus on planned weather modification has been on the design of needed midwestern experiments in rainfall enhancement and hail suppression including the societal and environmental impacts.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF ACCURATE CURVE NUMBERS IN THE ESTIMATION OF STORM RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Storm runoff as calculated by the runoff curve number method is shown to be of varying sensitivity to both input rainfall and curve number. Using an assumed input error of 10%, a runoff error chart is given. Up to about 9 inches of rainfall, runoff is more sensitive to curve number than to rainfall. The importance of accurate curve number selection in this range is stressed.     

Overland and near-surface transport of Cryptosporidium parvum from vegetated and nonvegetated surfaces

Understanding microbial pathogen transport patterns in overland flow is important for developing best management practices for limiting microbial transport to water resources. Knowledge about the effectiveness of vegetative filter strips (VFS) to reduce pathogen transport from livestock confinement areas is limited. In this study, overland and near-surface transport of Cryptosporidium parvum has been investigated. Effects of land slopes, vegetation, and rainfall intensities on oocyst transport were examined using a tilting soil chamber with two compartments, one with bare ground and the other with brome (Bromus inermis Leyss.) vegetation. Three slope conditions (1.5, 3.0, and 4.5%) were used in conjunction with two rainfall intensities (25.4 and 63.5 mm/h) for 44 min using a rainfall simulator. The vegetative surface was very effective in reducing C. parvum in surface runoff. For the 25.4 mm/h rainfall, the total percent recovery of oocysts in overland flow from the VFS varied from 0.6 to 1.7%, while those from the bare ground condition varied from 4.4 to 14.5%. For the 63.5 mm/h rainfall, the recovery percentages of oocysts varied from 0.8 to 27.2% from the VFS, and 5.3 to 59% from bare-ground conditions. For all slopes and rainfall intensities, the total (combining both surface and near-surface) recovery of C. parvum oocysts was considerably less from the vegetated surface than those from the bare-ground conditions. These results indicate that the VFS can be a best management practice for controlling C. parvum in runoff from animal production facilities.     

Assessment of the Extreme Rainfall Event at Nashville,TN and the Surrounding Region on May 1–3, 2010

This paper analyzes the May 1–3, 2010 rainfall event that affected the south‐central United States, including parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The storm is evaluated in terms of its synoptic setting, along with the temporal distributions, and spatial patterns of the rainfall. In addition, the recurrence interval of the storm is assessed and the implications for hydrologic structure designs are discussed. The event was associated with an upper‐level trough and stationary frontal boundary to the west of the rainfall region, which remained quasi‐stationary for a period of 48 h. Heavy rainfall was produced by two slow‐moving mesoscale convective complexes, combined with abundant atmospheric moisture. Storm totals exceeding 330 mm occurred within a large elongated area extending from Memphis to Nashville. Isolated rainfall totals over 480 mm were reported in some areas, with NEXRAD weather radar rainfall estimates up to 501 mm. An extreme value analysis was performed for one‐ and two‐day rainfall totals at Nashville and Brownsville, Tennessee, as well as for gridded rainfall estimates for the entire region using the Storm Precipitation Analysis System. Results suggest maximum rainfall totals for some durations during the May 1–3, 2010 event exceeded the 1,000‐year rainfall values from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 for a large portion of the region and reached up to 80% of the probable maximum precipitation values for some area sizes and durations.     

Evaluation of Satellite‐Derived Rainfall Data for Multiple Physio‐Climatic Regions in the Santiago River Basin,Mexico

Assessment of water resources requires reliable rainfall data, and rain gauge networks may not provide adequate spatial representation due to limited point measurements. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides rainfall data at global scale, and has been used with good results. However, TRMM data are an indirect measurement of rainfall, and therefore must be validated for its proper use. In this work, a validation scheme was designed and implemented to compare the TRMM Version 7 (V7) monthly rainfall product at different time frames with data measured in two hydrologic subregions of the Santiago River Basin (SRB) in Mexico: Río Alto Santiago and Río Bajo Santiago (RBS). Additionally, three physio‐climatic regions provide an assessment of the interplay of topography, distance from coastal regions, and seasonal weather patterns on the correspondence between both datasets. The TRMM V7 rainfall product exhibited good agreement with the rain gauge data particularly for the RBS and for the whole SRB during wettest summer and autumn seasons. However, strong regional dependence was observed due to differences in climate and topography. Overall, in spite of some noted underestimations, the monthly TRMM V7 rainfall product was found to provide useful information that can be used to complement limited monitoring as is the case of RBS. An improved combined rainfall product could be generated and thus gaining the most benefits from both data sources.     

WATER BALANCE OF PACIFIC ATOLLS1

ABSTRACT: This study presents an estimate of water balance components for Pacific atolls under average dimatological conditions. Figures show annual potential evapotranspiration, annual recharge for rain-fed and aquifer-fed vegetated areas, and the number of months that potential evapotranspiration exceeds actual evapotranspiration (indicating water stress) under average conditions. The method relies on the assumption that small islands have minimal influence on cloudiness and precipitation. The potential evapotranspiration is computed using the equilibrium evaporation concept, and estimates of monthly soil water storage and recharge follow Thornthwaite's bookkeeping method. Gradients in potential evapotranspiration run primarily north-south, though for the equatorial zone potential evapotranspiration declines from east to west, opposing the trend in rainfall. Recharge estimates range from 250 mm in the central Tuamotu Archipelago and zero in eastern Kiribati to over 2000 mm per year in the southern Caroline Islands (U.S. Trust Territory) and Solomon Islands. The sensitivity of the model to intra-month rainfall variability and a range of available soil moisture values is discussed.     

ESTIMATING RUNOFF VOLUMES FROM URBAN AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Estimations of runoff volumes from urban areas can be made by the equation Q = a A σ(P_e– b), where Q is the runoff volume, a is the part of the total area A Contributing to runoff, P_e is the rainfall amount for a single event, and b is the initial rainfall losses. For the evaluation of a and b, rainfall/runoff measurements were made in five areas of sizes between 0.035 km² and 1.450 km². By linear regression analysis of rainfall volumes versus runoff volumes, the initial rainfall losses were found to vary from 0.38 mm to 0.70 mm for the different areas. The parts of the areas contributing to runoff were found to be proportional to the impermeable parts of the mas. The equation is applicable in urban areas with well defined paved surfaces and roofs and with a negligible amount of runoff from permeable areas.     

THE PROBABILITY OF CONSECUTIVE RAINLESS DAYS1

ABSTRACT: A major objective of this work was to develop a method applicable to the Intermountain region for estimating the probability of n consecutive dry days, where n ≤ 30 days. One result was a computationally simple method of producing the desired estimates directly from the rainfall record. For a consecutive dry-day period of n days, these estimates are equivalent to those obtained from a Markov model of order n-1. The efficacy of a simple Markov model was also evaluated. In this climatic region, the simple Markov model produces probability estimates of consecutive dry days that are too conservative, especially at long dry-day periods. In this data set, it was found that the longer the dry-day sequence, the more conservative the Markov estimate. The source of these conservative estimates is the strong dry-day persistence, which is characteristic of summer weather in the Intermountain region. In this region, the best estimates of the probability of consecutive dry days are probably those obtained directly from a representative rainfall record and smoothed by the partial sums of a fourier Series.     

MONTHLY RUNOFF PREDICTIONS BASED ON RAINFALL FORECASTS IN A SMALL OKLAHOMA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three‐month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one‐month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decision‐support potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil‐storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments.