GEOSTATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF HORIZONTAL HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY FOR THE KIRKWOOD‐COHANSEY AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: The Kirkwood‐Cohansey aquifer has been identified as a critical source for meeting existing and expected water supply needs for southern New Jersey. Several contaminated sites exist in the region; their impact on the aquifer has to be evaluated using ground water flow and transport models. Ground water modeling depends on availability of measured hydrogeologic data (e.g., hydraulic conductivity, for parameterization of the modeling runs). However, field measurements of such critical data have inadequate spatial density, and their locations are often clustered. The goal of this study was to research, compile, and geocode existing data, then use geostatistics and advanced mapping methods to develop a map of horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Kirkwood‐Cohansey aquifer. Spatial interpolation of horizontal hydraulic conductivity measurements was performed using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Method implemented in the BMELib code library. This involved the integration of actual measurements with soft information on likely ranges of hydraulic conductivity at a given location to obtain estimate maps. The estimation error variance maps provide an insight into the uncertainty associated with the estimates, and indicate areas where more information on hydraulic conductivity is required.     

UTILIZATION OF A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM TO IDENTIFY THE PRIMARY AQUIFER PROVIDING GROUND WATER TO INDWIDUAL WELLS IN EASTERN ARKANSAS1

ABSTRACT: A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to develop an automated procedure for identifying the primary aquifers supplying ground water to individual wells in eastern Arkansas. As mandated by state law, water-use data are reported by ground-water withdrawers annually to the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, and stored in the Arkansas Site-Specific Water-Use Data System provided and supported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Although most withdrawers are able to provide the amount of water withdrawn and the depth of their wells, very few are able to provide the name of the aquifer from which they withdraw water. GIS software was used to develop an automated procedure for identifying the primary aquifers supplying ground water to individual wells in eastern Arkansas. The software was used to generate a spatial representation of the bottom boundary for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (the shallowest aquifer) in eastern Arkansas from well log-data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. The software was then used to determine the depth of the aquifer bottom at reported well locations to ascertain whether the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer or a deeper aquifer was the primary aquifer providing water to each well. The alluvial aquifer was identified as the primary aquifer for about 23,500 wells.     

A Power Law Model for River Flow Velocity in Iowa Basins

This study explores power law relationships to estimate water flow velocity as a function of discharge and drainage area across river networks. We test the model using empirical data from 214 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey gauging stations distributed over the state of Iowa in the U.S. The empirical data are the measurements of the mean cross‐sectional velocity and concurrent discharge. The data are used to estimate parameters for a state‐wide model and to test for spatial variability for 15 large river basins contained within the state. Spatial differences among the basins are small but some parameters significantly differ from the state‐wide model. Using individual station data, the authors also explore a simpler power law model that disregards dependence on the drainage area. Overall, the study shows that including drainage area improves the model. Our study provides parameter values that can be directly incorporated into a regional scale routing model, and provides a framework for developing flow velocity models for hydraulically similar rivers in the U.S. and the world.     

Water Footprint of 65 Mid‐ to Large‐Sized U.S. Cities and Their Metropolitan Areas

Conventional indicators of water use for urban areas account primarily for direct water use. In contrast, our objective here is to employ the water footprint (WF) concept and methodology to include the virtual or indirect water use to assess the production‐side and consumption‐side WF of 65 United States (U.S.) cities. The 65 cities include the largest metropolitan areas and some of the major mid‐sized cities in the U.S. We use metropolitan areas to define our city boundaries as this is the native spatial resolution of the main datasets used. To estimate the urban WFs, we integrated large and disparate datasets, including commodity flow (agricultural, livestock, and industrial commodities), water use, and socioeconomic data. By analyzing the estimated WF values, we found indirect water use accounts on average for 66% of the WF of consumption. We found some cities are net virtual water exporters (11 of 65) because they rely heavily on direct water uses or are heavy producers of industrial commodities. Also, WF patterns vary widely across the U.S. but regional patterns seem to emerge. For example, the dense cities of the U.S. northeast megaregion have a significantly low per capita WF relative to the other cities, while cities in the Gulf Coast megaregion have a significantly higher industrial WF of production and consumption. Furthermore, there is inequality in the WF of consumption where a few cities account for a disproportionate share of the total U.S. urban water uses.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUND WATER IN LANSING,MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri‐County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.     

The Road to NHDPlus — Advancements in Digital Stream Networks and Associated Catchments

A progression of advancements in Geographic Information Systems techniques for hydrologic network and associated catchment delineation has led to the production of the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus). NHDPlus is a digital stream network for hydrologic modeling with catchments and a suite of related geospatial data. Digital stream networks with associated catchments provide a geospatial framework for linking and integrating water‐related data. Advancements in the development of NHDPlus are expected to continue to improve the capabilities of this national geospatial hydrologic framework. NHDPlus is built upon the medium‐resolution NHD and, like NHD, was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Geological Survey to support the estimation of streamflow and stream velocity used in fate‐and‐transport modeling. Catchments included with NHDPlus were created by integrating vector information from the NHD and from the Watershed Boundary Dataset with the gridded land surface elevation as represented by the National Elevation Dataset. NHDPlus is an actively used and continually improved dataset. Users recognize the importance of a reliable stream network and associated catchments. The NHDPlus spatial features and associated data tables will continue to be improved to support regional water quality and streamflow models and other user‐defined applications.     

Global Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Modeling and Evaluation1

Abstract: Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro‐climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six‐hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1‐degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station‐based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS‐based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS‐based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five‐year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ～100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station‐based ET and GDAS‐ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter‐based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world. While the study revealed the potential of GDAS ETo for large‐scale hydrological applications, site‐specific use of GDAS ETo in complex hydro‐climatic regions such as coastal areas and rugged terrain may require the application of bias correction and/or disaggregation of the GDAS ETo using downscaling techniques.     

IRRIGATION METHODS AND TRANSPORT OF IMAZAMETHABENZ‐METHYL TO GROUND WATER: GREENFIELDS BENCH,MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: A series of gravel terraces support a shallow aquifer that is the sole source of drinking water for three public water supplies and more than 400 private wells on the Greenfields Bench in west‐central Montana. Farming practices on the Greenfields Bench include irrigation of malting barley and the yearly application of herbicides for the control of weeds. The most commonly used herbicide (imazamethabenz‐methyl, U.S. trade name Assert®) has been found in the ground water on the Greenfields Bench. An experiment was conducted in 2000 and 2001 to characterize the transport of Assert and its acid metabolite to ground water under three irrigation methods: flood, wheel line sprinkler, and center pivot sprinkler. Results show that Assert concentrations in ground water are controlled by hydraulic loading rates of each irrigation method, Assert persistence in soil, hydraulic characteristics of the aquifer, and adsorption/desorption of Assert onto clay particles and organic matter.     

ENHANCEMENTS OF NONPOINT SOURCE MONITORING OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has compiled a national retrospective data set of analyses of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in ground water of the United States. The data are from Federal, State, and local nonpoint‐source monitoring programs, collected between 1985–95. This data set is being used to augment data collected by the USGS National Water‐Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to ascertain the occurrence of VOCs in ground water nationwide. Eleven attributes of the retrospective data set were evaluated to determine the suitability of the data to augment NAWQA data in answering occurrence questions of varying complexity. These 11 attributes are the VOC analyte list and the associated reporting levels for each VOC, well type, well‐casing material, type of openings in the interval (screened interval or open hole), well depth, depth to the top and bottom of the open interval(s), depth to water level in the well, aquifer type (confined or unconfined), and aquifer lithology. VOCs frequently analyzed included solvents, industrial reagents, and refrigerants, but other VOCs of current interest were not frequently analyzed. About 70 percent of the sampled wells have the type of well documented in the data set, and about 74 percent have well depth documented. However, the data set generally lacks documentation of other characteristics, such as well‐casing material, information about the screened or open interval(s), depth to water level in the well, and aquifer type and lithology. For example, only about 20 percent of the wells include information on depth to water level in the well and only about 14 percent of the wells include information about aquifer type. The three most important enhancements to VOC data collected in nonpoint‐source monitoring programs for use in a national assessment of VOC occurrence in ground water would be an expanded VOC analyte list, recording the reporting level for each analyte for every analysis, and recording key ancillary information about each well. These enhancements would greatly increase the usefulness of VOC data in addressing complex occurrence questions, such as those that seek to explain the reasons for VOC occurrence and nonoccurrence in ground water of the United States.     

CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

Evaluation of Ground‐Water and Surface‐Water Exchanges Using Streamflow Difference Analyses1

Abstract: In the karstic lower Flint River Basin, limestone fracturing, jointing, and subsequent dissolution have resulted in the development of extensive secondary permeability and created a system of major conduits that facilitate the exchange of water between the Upper Floridan aquifer and Flint River. Historical streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations located in Albany and Newton, Georgia, were used to quantify ground‐water and surface‐water exchanges within a 55.3 km section of the Flint River. Using data from 2001, we compared estimates of ground‐water flux using a time adjustment method to a water balance equation and found that these independent approaches yielded similar results. The associated error was relatively large during high streamflow when unsteady conditions prevail, but much lower during droughts. Flow reversals were identified by negative streamflow differences and verified with in situ data from temperature sensors placed inside large spring conduits. Long‐term (13 years) analysis showed negative streamflow differentials (i.e., a losing stream condition) coincided with high river stages and indicated that streamflow intrusion into the aquifer could potentially exceed 150 m³/s. Although frequent negative flow differentials were evident, the Flint River was typically a gaining stream and showed a large net increase in flow between the two gages when examined over the period 1989‐2003. Ground‐water contributions to this stream section averaged 2‐42 m³/s with a mean of 13 m³/s. The highest rate of ground‐water discharge to the Flint River occurred during the spring when regional ground‐water levels peaked following heavy winter and spring rains and corresponding rates of evapotranspiration were low. During periods of extreme drought, ground‐water contributions to the Flint River declined.     

Integrated Measures of Anthropogenic Stress in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin

Integrated, quantitative expressions of anthropogenic stress over large geographic regions can be valuable tools in environmental research and management. Despite the fundamental appeal of a regional approach, development of regional stress measures remains one of the most important current challenges in environmental science. Using publicly available, pre-existing spatial datasets, we developed a geographic information system database of 86 variables related to five classes of anthropogenic stress in the U.S. Great Lakes basin: agriculture, atmospheric deposition, human population, land cover, and point source pollution. The original variables were quantified by a variety of data types over a broad range of spatial and classification resolutions. We summarized the original data for 762 watershed-based units that comprise the U.S. portion of the basin and then used principal components analysis to develop overall stress measures within each stress category. We developed a cumulative stress index by combining the first principal component from each of the five stress categories. Maps of the stress measures illustrate strong spatial patterns across the basin, with the greatest amount of stress occurring on the western shore of Lake Michigan, southwest Lake Erie, and southeastern Lake Ontario. We found strong relationships between the stress measures and characteristics of bird communities, fish communities, and water chemistry measurements from the coastal region. The stress measures are taken to represent the major threats to coastal ecosystems in the U.S. Great Lakes. Such regional-scale efforts are critical for understanding relationships between human disturbance and ecosystem response, and can be used to guide environmental decision-making at both regional and local scales.     

RADIUM - 226 IN GROUND WATER OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Principal U.S. phosphate production is from central Florida where mining, processing, and waste disposal practices intimately associate the industry with water resouces. Available radium-226 data from 1966 and from 1973–1976 in mined and unmined mincralized areas and nonmineralized areas in the primary study area in Polk, Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee, and De Soto counties were studied using log-normal probability plots and nonparametric statistical tests for significant difference as functions of time, depth, and location. Plots of radium in the water table and Floridan aquifers for mineralized and nonmineralized areas indicate that neither phosphate mineralization nor the industry is a probable factor. For the Lower Floridan aquifer, three separate radium populations are indicated with geometric means of 0.7, 3, and 10 pCi/1. Geometric mean radium-226 content of the water table aquifer is 0.17 pCi/1. Radium in the Floridan aquifer in Manatee and Sarasota Counties is elevated relative to that in the water table and in other areas of Florida. For Sarasota County, geometric mean radium content of the water table is 15 pCi/l versus 7.5 pCi/l in the Floridan. Potential sources include shallow phosphate sediments and monazite sands and possibly crystalline basement rocks or other strata unrelated to phosphatic zones of current economic interest. The existing radium-226 data base is rather marginal in terms of number and spatial distribution of analyses, particularly for the water table and Upper Floridan aquifer. Existing radium data do not substantiate widespread contamination of ground water as a result of the phosphate industry. However, local contamination associated with specific operations has occurred.     

INTERFACING GIS WITH WATER RESOURCE MODELS: A STATE‐OF‐THE‐ART REVIEW1

Two distinctive, independently developed technologies, geographic information systems (GIS) and predictive water resource models, are being interfaced with varying degrees of sophistication in efforts to simultaneously examine spatial and temporal phenomena. Neither technology was initially developed to interact with the other, and as a result, multiple approaches to interface GIS with water resource models exist. Additionally, continued model enhancements and the development of graphical user interfaces (GUIs) have encouraged the development of application “suites” for evaluation and visualization of engineering problems. Currently, disparities in spatial scales, data accessibility, modeling software preferences, and computer resources availability prevent application of a universal interfacing approach. This paper provides a state‐of‐the‐art critical review of current trends in interfacing GIS with predictive water resource models. Emphasis is placed on discussing limitations to efficient interfacing and potential future directions, including recommendations for overcoming many current challenges.     

INFLUENCES OF SOIL DATASET RESOLUTION ON HYDROLOGIC MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Soils represent a fundamental abiotic parameter in defining the characteristics of an ecosystem. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) produces the most detailed digital spatial soil datasets that are publicly available. The Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database contains basic attributes for the continuous coverage of soils across the United States. In its standard format, the SSURGO database is incompatible for use within the ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A modified version of the State Soil and Geographic (STATSGO) database is the template soils dataset used by ArcView SWAT. This paper presents the methodology and development of a SSURGO database preprocessor extension for the ArcView SWAT model. A case study for the Upper Sabinal River Watershed near Uvalde, Texas, is given. Results indicate that hydro‐logic output parameter differences occur when comparing the STATSGO and SSURGO database information in the ArcView SWAT model under identical modeling conditions. Specifically, the SSURGO model produced a greater daily mean water yield with evapotranspiration and surface runoff being found consistently lower across the watershed. The most likely causes assigned to this phenomenon were higher percolation and resulting ground water return flow values due to significantly larger saturated hydraulic conductivity values associated with the SSURGO 2.x database.     

The Transboundary Nature of the Allende–Piedras Negras Aquifer Using a Numerical Model Approach

The Allende–Piedras Negras (APN) aquifer is located between the states of Texas (United States [U.S.]) and Coahuila (Mexico). The Rio Grande crosses the aquifer, acting as a natural and political divide between the countries. However, it remains unclear whether the APN aquifer can be considered a truly transboundary aquifer flow system, which would potentially require joint management by two different administrative jurisdictions. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the transboundary nature of this aquifer. This was achieved by developing a detailed hydrogeological model to analyze the direction of volumetric fluxes within the APN aquifer using Visual MODFLOW. The model simulated a spatially averaged cumulative drawdown of 0.76 m for the entire aquifer over an 18‐year modeling period (2000–2017). The flow convergence zone, previously located below the Rio Grande, has shifted to the U.S. side in most locations, driven by higher pumping rates of the wells located near the river. This shift of the convergence zone from one country to the other means that groundwater recharge from one side flows underneath the river to the other side. This qualifies the APN aquifer as a “transboundary groundwater flow system.” The procedure followed in this study may be applied to other aquifers that straddle the U.S.–Mexico border and may motivate future modeling studies on other poorly studied transboundary aquifers around the world and thereby enable bi‐national aquifer management.     

Drought Resilience of the California Central Valley Surface‐Ground‐Water‐Conveyance System1

Abstract: A series of drought simulations were performed for the California Central Valley using computer applications developed by the California Department of Water Resources and historical datasets representing a range of droughts from mild to severe for time periods lasting up to 60 years. Land use, agricultural cropping patterns, and water demand were held fixed at the 2003 level and water supply was decreased by amounts ranging between 25 and 50%, representing light to severe drought types. Impacts were examined for four hydrologic subbasins, the Sacramento Basin, the San Joaquin Basin, the Tulare Basin, and the Eastside Drainage. Results suggest the greatest impacts are in the San Joaquin and Tulare Basins, regions that are heavily irrigated and are presently overdrafted in most years. Regional surface water diversions decrease by as much as 70%. Stream‐to‐aquifer flows and aquifer storage declines were proportional to drought severity. Most significant was the decline in ground water head for the severe drought cases, where results suggest that under these scenarios the water table is unlikely to recover within the 30‐year model‐simulated future. However, the overall response to such droughts is not as severe as anticipated and the Sacramento Basin may act as ground‐water insurance to sustain California during extended dry periods.     

Using Global Datasets to Create Environmental Profiles for Data-Poor Regions: A Case from the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins

The increasing availability of spatial data inspires the exploration of previously less-studied, yet regionally and nationally important areas, such as the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins in Southeast Asia. This article documents our experience using global datasets to create environmental basin profiles in these two basins. Our approach draws on the concepts of freshwater vulnerability assessments that guided the selection of indicators. Data on land use, population distribution and fertilizer load were used. The unit of analysis was chosen to distinguish areas with similar bio-geographical characteristics, such as the critical delta areas. Results were further discussed for sub-areas that experience relatively the most pressure in terms of examined indicators within the studied area. The river mouths of both rivers had the most intensive land use and high population density. They are also home to important ecosystems and are sensitive to changes in upstream areas. Our study presents a concise and spatially distributed view of the environmental basin profiles of the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins. The analysis also provides some interesting methodological insights about the potential of public macro-scale datasets for environmental assessment. The spatial approach allowed the analysis of different indicators, providing a platform for data integration as well as a visually powerful overview of the study area. Yet, the use of macro-scale datasets entails challenges. Despite improvements, the assessment process tends to be driven by the availability and quality of data, rather than by the actual research and management needs. The greatest utility of macro-scale datasets lies—at least in data-poor areas—in larger scale comparative analyses between the basins and their different sub-areas.     

HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS OF DISCHARGE SUSTAINABILITY FROM AN ABANDONED UNDERGROUND COAL MINE1

ABSTRACT: Discharge from flooded abandoned subsurface coal mines is considered a potential source for water supplies where other acceptable water sources are not available. The objective of this study was to develop procedures for determining sustainability of mine‐water discharge using rainfall and discharge data for a case study site. The study site is located in southwest Virginia where Late Paleozoic sequences of sandstone, coal, and shale predominate. A rain gauge and a flow rate monitoring system were installed at the site and data were collected for a period of 100 days. The recording period corresponded with one of the driest periods in recent years and, therefore, provided valuable information regarding the flow sustainability during baseflow conditions. From available data on underground mining patterns, geology, and ground water flow regimes, it was determined that a coal mine aquifer exhibits hydraulic characteristics very similar to the extremely heterogeneous systems observed in karst aquifers, and the mine discharge is analogous to springflow. Thus, techniques commonly used in karst‐water systems and springflow analysis were used to develop rainfall/mine‐discharge relationships. Springflow recession analysis was performed on five rainfall recessions and the coefficient for each recession was compared and interpreted in light of known geologic information. It was found that the recession coefficients described the mine discharge adequately and the mine aquifer response to a rainfall pulse was very similar to the response from certain types of karst aquifers. A cross‐correlation analysis was performed to verify the results of the recession analysis and to develop a “black box” statistical model for discharge data. The correlation analysis proved the validity of springflow recession analysis for mine discharge. The recorded data length was not adequate to create a statistical model, however, but a procedure was proposed for a statistical model that could be used with large flow records. For the study site, the mine discharge was found to be sustainable for a prolonged period of time.     

A Stochastic Modeling Approach to Address Hydrogeologic Uncertainties in Modeling Wellhead Protection Boundaries in Karst Aquifers1

Abstract: Development of any numerical ground‐water model is dependent on hydrogeologic data describing the subsurface. These data are obtained from geologic core analyses, stratigraphic analyses, aquifer performance tests, and geophysical studies. But typically in remote areas, these types of data are very sparse and site‐specific in terms of the aerial extent of the resource to be modeled. Uncertainties exist as to how well the available data from a few locations defines a heterogeneous surficial aquifer such as the Biscayne Aquifer in Miami‐Dade County, Florida. This is particularly the case when an exceptionally conductive horizontal flow zone is detected at one site due to specialized testing that was not historically conducted at the other at sites that provided data for the model. Not adequately accounting for the potential effect of the high flow zone in the aquifer within a ground‐water numerical model, even though the zone may be of very limited thickness, might underpredict the well field protection capture boundaries. Applied Stochastic ground‐water modeling in determining well field protection zones is steadily becoming important in addressing the uncertainty of the hydrogeologic subsurface parameters, specifically in karstic heterogeneous aquifers. This is particularly important in addressing the uncertainty of a 60‐day travel time capture zone in the Northwest Well Field, Miami‐Dade County, where a predominantly high flow zone controls much of the flow in the production wells. A stochastic ground‐water modeling application along with combination of pilot points and regularization technique is presented to further consolidate the uncertainty of the subsurface.