IMPACTS OF CALIFORNIA'S CLIMATIC REGIMES AND COASTAL LAND USE CHANGE ON STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC‐HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate stream flow for a 14‐year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14‐year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two stream flow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing stream flow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14‐year distributions of stream flow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14‐year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m³/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m³/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern.     

Effects of Watershed Impervious Cover on Dissolved Silica Loading in Storm Flow1

Abstract: Dissolved silica (DSi) availability is a factor that affects the composition of algal populations in aquatic ecosystems. DSi cycling is tightly linked to the hydrological cycle, which is affected by human alterations of the landscape. Development activities that increase impervious cover change watershed hydrology and may increase the discharge of DSi‐poor rainwater and decrease the discharge of DSi‐rich ground water into aquatic ecosystems, possibly shifting algal community composition toward less desirable assemblages. In this study, DSi loadings from two adjacent coastal watersheds with different percent impervious cover were compared during four rain and five nonrain events. Loadings in the more impervious watershed contained a significantly larger proportion of surface runoff than base flow (ground‐water discharge) and had lower [DSi] water during rain events than the less impervious watershed. Application of the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (CN) method showed that the minimum rainfall height necessary to yield runoff was significantly lower for the more impervious watershed, implying that runoff volumes increase with impervious cover as well as the frequency of runoff‐yielding events. Empirical data collected during this study and estimates derived from the CN method suggest that impervious cover may be responsible for both short‐term DSi limitation during rain events as well as long‐term reduction of DSi inputs into aquatic ecosystems.     

Flow,Organic, and Inorganic Sediment Yields from a Channelized Watershed in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain

Many small streams in coastal watersheds in the southeastern United States are modified for agricultural, residential, and commercial development. In the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain, low‐relief topography and a shallow water table make stream channelization ubiquitous. To quantify the impacts of urbanization and stream channelization, we measured flow and sediment from an urbanizing watershed and a small forested watershed. Flow and sediment export rates were used to infer specific yields from forested and nonforested regions of the urbanizing watershed. Study objectives were to: (1) quantify the range of runoff‐to‐rainfall ratios; (2) quantify the range of specific sediment yields; (3) characterize the quantity and quality of particulate matter exported; and (4) estimate sediment yield attributable to agriculture, development, and channelization activities in the urbanizing watershed. Our results showed that the urban watershed exported over five times more sediment per unit area compared with the forested watershed. Sediment concentration was related to flow flashiness in the urban watershed and to flow magnitude in the forested watershed. Sediments from the forested watershed were dominated by organic matter, whereas mineral matter dominated sediment from the urban stream. Our results indicated that a significant shift in sediment quality and quantity are likely to occur as forested watersheds are transformed by urbanization in coastal South Carolina.     

Characterization of Storm Flow Dynamics of Headwater Streams in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain1

Epps, Thomas H., Daniel R. Hitchcock, Anand D. Jayakaran, Drake R. Loflin, Thomas M. Williams, and Devendra M. Amatya, 2012. Characterization of Storm Flow Dynamics of Headwater Streams in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12000 Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring was conducted in two first‐order lower coastal plain watersheds in South Carolina, United States, a region with increasing growth and land use change. Storm events over a three‐year period were analyzed for direct runoff coefficients (ROC) and the total storm response (TSR) as percent rainfall. ROC calculations utilized an empirical hydrograph separation method that partitioned total streamflow into sustained base flow and direct runoff components. ROC ratios ranged from 0 to 0.32 on the Upper Debidue Creek (UDC) watershed and 0 to 0.57 on Watershed 80 (WS80); TSR results ranged from 0 to 0.93 at UDC and 0.01 to 0.74 at WS80. Variability in event runoff generation was attributed to seasonal trends in water table elevation fluctuation as regulated by evapotranspiration. Groundwater elevation breakpoints for each watershed were identified based on antecedent water table elevation, streamflow, ROCs, and TSRs. These thresholds represent the groundwater elevation above which event runoff generation increased sharply in response to rainfall. For effective coastal land use decision making, baseline watershed hydrology must be understood to serve as a benchmark for management goals, based on both seasonal and event‐based surface and groundwater interactions.     

RUNOFF RESPONSE FROM TWO RECLAIMED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Detailed studies of the surface hydrology of reclaimed surface-mined watersheds for both rainfall and snowmelt events are non-existent for central Alberta yet this information is crucial for design of runoff conveyance and storage structures. A study was initiated in 1992 with principal objectives of quantifying surface runoff for both summer rainfall and spring snowmelt events and identifying the dominant flow processes occurring in two reclaimed watersheds. Snowmelt accounted for 86 and 100% of annual watershed runoff in 1993 and 1994, respectively. The highest instantaneous peak flow was recorded during a summer rainfall event with a return period of greater than 50 years. Infiltration-excess overland flow was identified as the dominant flow process occurring within the Sandy Subsoil Watershed, whereas saturation overland flow was the principal runoff process occurring within the West Watershed.     

MODELING TRANSIENT pH DEPRESSIONS IN COASTAL STREAMS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA USING NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Transient events in water chemistry in small coastal watersheds, particularly pH depressions, are largely driven by inputs of precipitation. While the response of each watershed depends upon both the nature of the precipitation event and the season of the year, how the response changes over time can provide insight into landscape changes. Neural network models for an urban watershed and a rural‐suburban watershed were developed in an attempt to detect changes in system response resulting from changes in the landscape. Separate models for describing pH depressions for wet season and dry season conditions were developed for a seven year period at each watershed. The neural network models allowed separation of the effects of precipitation variations and changes in watershed response. The ability to detect trends in pH depression magnitudes was improved by analyzing neural network residuals rather than the raw data. Examination of sensitivity plots of the models indicated how the neural networks were affected by different inputs. There were large differences in effects between seasons in the rural‐suburban watershed whereas effects in the urban watershed were consistent between seasons. During the study period, the urban watershed showed no change in pH depression response, while the rural‐suburban watershed showed a significant increase in the magnitude of pH depressions, likely the result of increased urbanization.     

CALIBRATION OF STORM LOADS IN THE SOUTH PRONG WATERSHED,FLORIDA, USING BASINS/HSPF1

ABSTRACT: The South Prong watershed is a major tributary system of the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River Lagoon. Continued urbanization of the Sebastian River drainage basin and other watersheds of the Indian River Lagoon is expected to increase runoff and nonpoint source pollutant loads. The St. Johns River Water Management District developed watershed simulation models to estimate potential impacts on the ecological systems of receiving waters and to assist planners in devising strategies to prevent further degradation of water resources. In the South Prong system, a storm water sampling program was carried out to calibrate the water quality components of the watershed model for total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorous (TP), and total nitrogen (TN). During the period of May to November 1999, water quality and flow data were collected at three locations within the watershed. Two of the sampling stations were located at the downstream end of major watercourses. The third station was located at the watershed outlet. Five storm events were sampled and measured at each station. Sampling was conducted at appropriate intervals to represent the rising limb, peak, and recession limb of each storm event. The simulations were handled by HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran). Results include calibration of the hydrology and calibration of the individual storm loads. The hydrologic calibration was continuous over the period 1994 through 1999. Simulated storm runoff, storm loads, and event mean concentrations were compared with their corresponding observed values. The hydrologic calibration showed good results. The outcome of the individual storm calibrations was mixed. Overall, however, the simulated storm loads agreed reasonably well with measured loads for a majority of the storms.     

BASE FLOW TRENDS IN URBANIZING WATERSHEDS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN1

Rapid land development is raising concern regarding the ability of urbanizing watersheds to sustain adequate base flow during periods of drought. Long term streamflow records from unregulated watersheds of the lower to middle Delaware River basin are examined to evaluate the impact of urbanization and imperviousness on base flow. Trends in annual base flow volumes, seven‐day low flows, and runoff ratios are determined for six urbanizing watersheds and four reference watersheds across three distinct physiographic regions. Hydrograph separation is used to determine annual base flow and stormflow volumes, and nonparametric trend tests are conducted on the resulting time series. Of the watersheds examined, the expected effects of declining base flow volumes and seven‐day low flows and increasing stormflows are seen in only one watershed that is approximately 20 percent impervious and has been subject to a net water export over the past 15 years. Both interbasin transfers and hydrologic mechanisms are invoked to explain these results. The results show that increases in impervious area may not result in measurable reductions in base flow at the watershed scale.     

Curve Number Derivation for Watersheds Draining Two Headwater Streams in Lower Coastal Plain South Carolina,USA

The objective of this study was to assess curve number (CN) values derived for two forested headwater catchments in the Lower Coastal Plain (LCP) of South Carolina using a three‐year period of storm event rainfall and runoff data in comparison with results obtained from CN method calculations. Derived CNs from rainfall/runoff pairs ranged from 46 to 90 for the Upper Debidue Creek (UDC) watershed and from 42 to 89 for the Watershed 80 (WS80). However, runoff generation from storm events was strongly related to water table elevation, where seasonally variable evapotranspirative wet and dry moisture conditions persist. Seasonal water table fluctuation is independent of, but can be compounded by, wet conditions that occur as a result of prior storm events, further complicating flow prediction. Runoff predictions for LCP first‐order watersheds do not compare closely to measured flow under the average moisture condition normally associated with the CN method. In this study, however, results show improvement in flow predictions using CNs adjusted for antecedent runoff conditions and based on water table position. These results indicate that adaptations of CN model parameters are required for reliable flow predictions for these LCP catchments with shallow water tables. Low gradient topography and shallow water table characteristics of LCP watersheds allow for unique hydrologic conditions that must be assessed and managed differently than higher gradient watersheds.     

Runoff Storage Potential of Drained Upland Depressions on the Des Moines Lobe of Iowa

We present estimates of the volumetric storage capacities of currently drained upland depressions and catchment depressional specific storage and runoff storage indices for the Des Moines Lobe of Iowa (DML‐IA) subregion of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Storage capacities were determined using hydrologically enforced Light Detection and Ranging‐derived digital elevation models, and a unique geoprocessing algorithm. Depressional specific storage was estimated for each 12‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC12) watershed in the region from total catchment‐specific depressional storage volume and catchment area. Runoff storage indices were calculated using catchment depressional specific storage values and estimates of the amount of rainfall likely to fall within each watershed during sub‐annual and 1‐, 2‐, 5‐, and 10‐year 24‐h events. The 173,171 identified drained depressions in the DML‐IA can store up to 903.5 Mm³ of runoff. Most of this capacity is in depressions located in the north of the region. Specific storage varies from nearly 109 mm in the younger landscapes to <10 mm in older more eroded areas. For 95% of the HUC12 watersheds comprising the region, depressional storage will likely be exhausted by rainfall‐derived runoff in excess of a 1‐year 24‐h event. Rainfall amounts greater than a 5‐year 24‐h event will exceed all available depressional storage. Therefore, the capacity of drained depressions in the DML‐IA to mitigate flooding resulting from infrequent, but large, storm events is limited.     

Hydrologic Landscape Classification to Estimate Bristol Bay,Alaska Watershed Hydrology

Hydrologic landscapes (HLs) have proven to be a useful tool for broad scale assessment and classification of landscapes across the United States as they help organize larger geographical areas into areas of similar hydrologic characteristics. We developed a HL classification for the Bristol Bay watershed of southwest Alaska that incorporates indices of annual climate and seasonality, terrain, geology, and the influences of large lakes and glaciers. A HL classification is particularly useful in this large watershed because of its hydrologic and landscape variability, important salmon fishery, variety of environmental and potential anthropogenic stressors, and lack of widespread hydrologic data. Following creation of Bristol Bay basin‐wide HL classes, we compared the HL distributions within watersheds grouped by two calculated runoff parameters derived from available long‐term streamflow records and found HL distributions within these groups provided predictive insight on hydrologic behavior. Using these developed runoff groups, we estimated expected hydrologic behavior in watersheds across the larger Bristol Bay watershed that lacked gauged streamflow records. The HL approach provides a scientific basis for estimating the first‐order hydrologic behavior of watersheds and landscapes that lack detailed hydrologic information.     

STORM DISCHARGE,LOADS, AND AVERAGE CONCENTRATIONS IN NORTHWEST OHIO RIVERS, 1975–19951

ABSTRACT: A computerized technique was developed to identify storm runoff episodes and calculate storm discharges, storm loads, and storm average concentrations for each event in datasets with up to 10,000 records. This technique was applied to four watersheds within the Lake Erie drainage basin and identified between 160 and 250 runoff events in each. Storm event loads and storm event mean concentrations were calculated for each runoff event for suspended solids, total phosphorus, soluble reactive phosphorus, nitrate, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen. The basic characteristics of the resulting data are described, as are systematic differences as a function of watershed size, seasonal differences, and trends over time. Many of the results of this study reflect the importance of nonpoint processes and improvements in agricultural best management practices in these watersheds.     

EFFECTS OF CONTROLLED DRAINAGE ON STORM EVENT HYDROLOGY IN A LOBLOLLY PINE PLANTATION1

ABSTRACT: A paired watershed approach was utilized to study the effects of three water management regimes on storm event hydrology in three experimental watersheds in a drained loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation in eastern North Carolina. The regimes were: (1) conventional drainage, (2) controlled drainage (CD) to reduce outflows during spring fish recruitment, and (3) controlled drainage to reduce outflows and conserve water during the growing season. Data from two pit‐treatment years and three years of CD treatment with raised weirs at the watershed outlet are presented. CD treatment resulted in rises in water table elevations during the summer. But the rises were small and short‐lived due to increased evapotranspiration (ET) rates as compared to the spring treatment with lower ET demands. CD treatment had no effect on water tables deeper than 1.3 m. CD treatments, however, significantly (α= 0.05) reduced the stoning outflows for all events, and peak outflow rates for most of the events depending upon the outlet weir level. In some events, flows did not occur at all in watersheds with CD. When event outflows occurred, duration of the event was sharply reduced because of reduced effective ditch depth. Water table depth at the start of an event influenced the effect of CD treatment on storm event hydrology.     

Physically Based,Hydrologic Model Results Based on Three Precipitation Products1

Abstract: The main objective of the study is to examine the accuracy of and differences among simulated streamflows driven by rainfall estimates from a network of 22 rain gauges spread over a 2,170 km² watershed, NEXRAD Stage III radar data, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite data. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), a physically based, distributed parameter, grid‐structured, hydrologic model, was used to simulate the June‐2002 flooding event in the Upper Guadalupe River watershed in south central Texas. There were significant differences between the rainfall fields estimated by the three types of measurement technologies. These differences resulted in even larger differences in the simulated hydrologic response of the watershed. In general, simulations driven by radar rainfall yielded better results than those driven by satellite or rain‐gauge estimates. This study also presents an overview of effects of land cover changes on runoff and stream discharge. The results demonstrate that, for major rainfall events similar to the 2002 event, the effect of urbanization on the watershed in the past two decades would not have made any significant effect on the hydrologic response. The effect of urbanization on the hydrologic response increases as the size of the rainfall event decreases.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development

The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.     

EVALUATION OF THE APPLICABILITY OF THE SWAT MODEL FOR COASTAL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used for hydrologic analyses at various watershed scales. However, little is known about the model's performance in coastal watersheds. In this study SWAT was evaluated for its applicability in three Louisiana coastal watersheds: the Amite, Tickfaw, and Tangipahoa River watersheds. The model was calibrated with daily discharge from 1976 to 1977 and validated from 1979 to 1999 for the Amite and Tangipahoa and with daily discharge from 1979 to 1989 for the Tickfaw. Deviation of mean discharge and the Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency were used to evaluate model behavior. The study found that Manning's roughness coefficient for the main channel, SCS curve number, and soil evaporation compensation factor were the most sensitive parameters for these coastal watersheds. The Manning's roughness coefficient showed the greatest effect on the response time of surface runoff, suggesting the critical role of channel routing in hydrologic modeling for lowland watersheds. The SWAT model demonstrated an excellent performance, with Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.935, 0.940, and 0.960 for calibrations of the Amite, Tickfaw, and Tangipahoa watersheds, respectively, and of 0.851, 0.811, and 0.867 for validations. The modeling results demonstrate that SWAT is capable of simulating hydrologic processes for medium scale to large scale coastal lowland watersheds in Louisiana.     

ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF NRCS MODELS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: In the last 30 years, the National Resource Conservation Service's TR‐55 and TR‐20 models have seen a dramatic increase in use for stormwater management purposes. This paper reviews some of the data that were originally used to develop these models and tests how well the models estimate annual series peak runoff rates for the same watersheds using longer historical data record lengths. The paper also explores differences between TR‐55 and TR‐20 peak runoff rate estimates and time of concentration methods. It was found that of the 37 watersheds tested, 25 were either over‐ or under‐predicting the actual historical watershed runoff rates by more than 30 percent. The results of this study indicate that these NRCS models should not be used to model small wooded watersheds less than 20 acres. This would be especially true if the watershed consisted of an area without a clearly defined outlet channel. This study also supports the need for regulators to allow educated hydrologists to alter pre‐packaged model parameters or results more easily than is currently permitted.     

Phosphorus loss and runoff characteristics in three adjacent agricultural watersheds with claypan soils

Effects of precipitation, runoff, and management on total phosphorus (TP) loss from three adjacent, row-cropped watersheds in the claypan region of northeastern Missouri were examined from 1991 to 1997 to understand factors affecting P loss in watersheds dominated by claypan soils. Runoff samples from each individual runoff event were analyzed for TP and sediment concentration. The annual TP loss ranged from 0.29 to 3.59 kg ha(-1) with a mean of 1.36 kg ha(-1) across all the watersheds during the study period. Significantly higher loss of TP from the watersheds was observed during the fallow period. Multiple small runoff events or several large runoff events contributed to loss of TP from the watersheds. Total P loss in 1993, a year with above-normal precipitation, accounted for 30% of the total TP loss observed over seven years. The five largest runoff events out of a total of 66 events observed over seven years accounted for 27% of the TP loss. The five largest sediment losses were responsible for 24% of the TP loss over seven years. Runoff volume and sediment loss explained 64 to 73% and 47 to 58% of the variation in TP loss on watersheds during the study. Flow duration and maximum flow accounted for 49 and 66% of TP loss, respectively. The results of this study suggest that management practices that reduce runoff volume, flow duration, maximum flow, and sediment loss, and that maintain a suitable vegetative cover throughout the year could lower P loss in claypan soils.     

Discussion

Epps et al. (2013) derived Curve Number (CN) values for two forested headwater watersheds in the Lower Coastal Plain of South Carolina during the 2008‐2011 period from rainfall‐runoff data, resulting in 23 events for the Upper Debidue Creek (UDC) watershed and in 20 events for Watershed 80 (WS80). D'Asaro and Grillone analyzed the P, CN data of the UDC watershed finding an evident “complacent” behavior, characterized by a declining CN with increasing P but without approaching a stable value at large storms. In this case, the traditional runoff CN equation does not fit well with the rainfall‐runoff data that indicate a partial source area watershed behavior and are more aptly modeled by the equation introduced by D'Asaro and Grillone (2012), who introduced a C parameter in the well‐known runoff CN formula. The C value, that represents the source area (fraction of drainage area) of the basin that produces runoff with a fixed CN < 100, is here considered to vary with the water table elevation (WTE), to which it is well correlated.