Assessing the Cost of an Invasive Forest Pathogen: A Case Study with Oak Wilt

Economic assessment of damage caused by invasive alien species provides useful information to consider when determining whether management programs should be established, modified, or discontinued. We estimate the baseline economic damage from an invasive alien pathogen, Ceratocystis fagacearum, a fungus that causes oak wilt, which is a significant disease of oaks (Quercus spp.) in the central United States. We focus on Anoka County, Minnesota, a 1,156 km² mostly urban county in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan region. We develop a landscape-level model of oak wilt spread that accounts for underground and overland pathogen transmission. We predict the economic damage of tree mortality from oak wilt spread in the absence of management during the period 2007–2016. Our metric of economic damage is removal cost, which is one component of the total economic loss from tree mortality. We estimate that Anoka County has 5.92 million oak trees and 885 active oak wilt pockets covering 5.47 km² in 2007. The likelihood that landowners remove infected oaks varies by land use and ranges from 86% on developed land to 57% on forest land. Over the next decade, depending on the rates of oak wilt pocket establishment and expansion, 76–266 thousand trees will be infected with discounted removal cost of $18–60 million. Although our predictions of removal costs are substantial, they are lower bounds on the total economic loss from tree mortality because we do not estimate economic losses from reduced services and increased hazards. Our predictions suggest that there are significant economic benefits, in terms of damage reduction, from preventing new pocket establishment or slowing the radial growth of existing pockets.     

The influence of satellite populations of emerald ash borer on projected economic costs in U.S. communities, 2010-2020

The invasion spread of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is characterized by the formation of satellite populations that expand and coalesce with the continuously invading population front. As of January 2010, satellite infestations have been detected in 13 states and two Canadian provinces. Understanding how newly established satellite populations may affect economic costs can help program managers to justify and design prevention and control strategies. We estimate the economic costs caused by EAB for the 10-yr period from 2010 to 2020 for scenarios of fewer EAB satellite populations than those found from 2005 to 2010 and slower expansion of satellite populations found in 2009. We measure the projected discounted cost of treatment, removal, and replacement of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) growing in managed landscapes in U.S. communities. Estimated costs for the base scenario with the full complement of satellites in 2005-2010 and no program to mitigate spread is $12.5 billion. Fewer EAB satellites from 2005 to 2010 delay economic costs of $1.0 to 7.4 billion. Slower expansion of 2009 satellite populations delays economic costs of $0.1 to 0.7 billion. Satellite populations that are both distant from the core EAB infestation and close to large urban areas caused more economic costs in our simulations than did other satellites. Our estimates of delayed economic costs suggest that spending on activities that prevent establishment of new satellite EAB populations or slow expansion of existing populations can be cost-effective and that continued research on the cost and effectiveness of prevention and control activities is warranted.     

Can California coastal managers plan for sea-level rise in a cost-effective way?

This paper examines five representative sites on the California coast to illustrate a cost-effective methodology using tools and data that local decision makers can apply to analyse the economics of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation. We estimate the costs/benefits of selected responses (e.g. no action, nourishment, seawalls) to future flooding and erosion risks exacerbated by SLR. We estimate the economic value of changes to public/private property, recreational and habitat value, and beach related spending/tax revenues. Our findings indicate that the costs of SLR are significant but uneven across communities, and there is no single best strategy for adaptation. For example, Los Angeles's Venice Beach could lose $450 million in tourism revenue by 2100 with a 1.4 m SLR scenario while San Francisco's Ocean Beach would lose $80 million, but the impacts to structures could total nearly $560 million at Ocean Beach compared to $50 million at Venice Beach.     

Optimal hardwood tree planting and forest reclamation policy on reclaimed surface mine lands in the Appalachian coal region

We study the optimal hardwood tree planting decision on reclaimed surface coal mines in the Appalachian region using a mine operator-focused, expected cost model that recognizes costs of preparing the site for tree planting, unit costs of planting seedlings, and opportunity costs of reforestation treatments and the performance bond. We also consider the possibility of failed initial attempts by incorporating the probability of reforestation success, based on empirical seedling ,survival rates and regulated tree survival standards, as well as fixed and unit costs of returning for additional planting. Optimal planting levels from 319 to 780 trees per acre and expected costs from $1049 to $2338 were found using simulations over a range of unit planting costs, fixed costs of replanting, tree survival standards, and interest rates. Further simulations compared optimal planting across un-weathered gray sandstone and weathered brown sandstone substrate materials, finding gray sandstone to be associated with lower expected costs. We conclude that optimal planting density and expected reforestation cost are sensitive to economic parameters, regulations, and planting substrate materials; and those policies influencing these factors may have substantial impact on reforestation outcomes and the choice of post-mining land use by mine operators. Our study provides a framework for understanding forest reclamation decisions that incorporates incentives faced by the mine operators who develop and implement the plans for mine reclamation, including forestry.     

The availability of primary nickel from the market economy countries

The US Bureau of Mines has determined the potential availability of nickel from 36 deposits or districts in 16 market economy countries (MECs). More than 95% of production in MECs was analysed. The study indicates the quantity of nickel available in resources and potential annual production at net production costs and on a total cost basis with a 0% and a 10% discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR). The properties included in this study contain approximately 33 million tonnes of recoverable nickel. About 26 million tonnes of nickel is potentially recoverable from nickel laterite deposits, of which 4.5 million tonnes can be produced at $2.50/lb or less with a 0% DCFROR. Approximately 7 million tonnes of nickel is potentially recoverable from nickel sulphide deposits of which about 6.3 million tonnes could be produced at $2.50/lb or less at a 0% DCFROR. Sensitivity studies indicate that the total cost of producing nickel from laterite deposits is most sensitive to increases in energy costs, and that the total costs of producing nickel from sulphide deposits is most sensitive to increases in labour costs and by changes in byproduct revenues.     

Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues

Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. GHG emissions from deforestation in the tropics were in the range of 1 to 2 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1990s, which is equivalent to as much as 25% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. While there is growing interest in providing incentives to avoid deforestation and consequently reduce net carbon emissions, there is limited information available on the potential costs of these activities. This paper uses a global forestry and land use model to analyze the potential marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation in tropical countries. Our estimates suggest that about 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of emissions reductions could be obtained over the next 30 to 50 yr for $5 per Mg C, and about 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) could be obtained over the same time frame for $100 per Mg C. In addition, the effects of carbon incentives on land use could be substantial. Relative to projected baseline conditions, we find that there would be around 3 million additional hectares (ha) of forestland in 2055 at $5 per Mg C and 422 million ha at $100 per Mg C. Estimates of reductions in area deforested, GHG mitigation potential, and annual land rental payments required are presented, all of which vary by region, carbon price paid, and time frame of mitigation.     

The conservation benefits of cost-effective land acquisition: A case study in Maryland

Economic theory asserts that to achieve maximum conservation benefits land acquisition needs to be cost effective. Yet the most common planning technique used by land conservation organizations is ‘benefit-targeting’ that focuses only on acquiring parcels with the highest benefits and ignores costs. Unlike most of the literature which focuses on covering problems, this research applies optimization techniques to achieve maximum aggregate conservation benefits for an ongoing land acquisition effort in the Catoctin Mountain Region in central Maryland. For this case study, optimization yields additional conservation benefits worth an estimated $3.1–$3.9 million or achieves the same level of conservation benefits but at a cost savings ranging from $0.9 to $3.5 million, depending on the initial budget size. Finally, the highest efficiencies are achieved in low budget scenarios, like those most prevalent in conservation efforts.     

Economic use value of the Belize marine ecosystem: Potential risks and benefits from offshore oil exploration

The announcement of plans for exploratory oil drilling at a number of offshore sites in Belize raised concerns about the risks associated with drilling, particularly given the socio‐economic importance of the marine ecosystem. The current economic value of fisheries and marine ecotourism is estimated, along with the potential revenue from offshore oil and potential economic losses stemming from oil pollution, under various assumptions on risk and uncertainty. Marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated to generate around US$ 183 million per year. Single‐year estimated maximum revenue is higher for oil extraction initially but quickly declines; during a 50 year (two generation) period, total discounted benefits from marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated at US$ 5.1 billion, compared to US$ 3.2 billion from offshore oil revenue. Following a hypothetical oil spill, discounted losses in marine fisheries and ecotourism due to perception and ecological impacts are estimated at US$ 912 million, with clean‐up costs and capital losses of US$ 6.1‐10.4 billion. Considering the short extraction life of oil resources compared to fisheries and ecotourism, the difference in benefits increases substantially in favour of the latter with a longer time horizon. A recent public referendum resulted in a 98% vote against oil exploration and a subsequent annulment of oil concessions pending environmental impact assessments.     

MEASURING ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION: AN INVESTIGATION OF HOUSEHOLD AVOIDANCE COSTS1

ABSTRACT: Economic losses from ground water contamination were estimated in a central Pennsylvania community. The averting expenditures method was applied via a mail survey of households in which water contained the unregulated volatile organic chemical, perchloroethylene (PCE). Expenditures were estimated at $148,900 (1987 dollars) over the six-month contamination period or approximately $252 per household annually. These costs underestimate the lower bound measure of welfare losses to households from ground water contamination. An upper bound measure of welfare losses was estimated at $383 per household annually. These estimates do not represent the full economic losses resulting from ground water contamination since the study did not address municipal-level and business avoidance costs and losses from actual health effects, increased fear and anxiety, ecological damages, and nonuser ground water benefits. The results expand the existing empirical base of information about municipal-level responses and economic losses from ground water contamination to include household-level impacts. The findings indicate that households undertake substantial averting actions in response to ground water contamination and that such actions can have significant economic consequences. The extent and magnitude of avoidance costs documented suggests that policy-makers should give greater attention to this category of economic losses.     

Population,environment, and development

The strategies for reducing population growth include social development and improvement in the educational attainment of women. The decline in Kenya's growth rate was attributed to high female literacy and reduced infant mortality. Another strategy for enhancing fertility decline is to reduce child mortality, particularly from preventable causes such as diarrhea. The entire cost of such a strategy to reduce preventable disease would be about $1.33 per 300 million taxpayers in developed countries. Family planning services must be expanded. Prevention of maternal mortality and AIDS would bring major benefits. Strategies for environmental protection emphasized the already existing plan of action set out in the UNCED document Agenda 21 in Rio de Janeiro. The plan has suffered from inaction. The estimated cost of $625 million was considered to be several times smaller than the costs of inaction. The elimination of subsidies in tropical forests would have an immediate impact. Natural resource accounting at the national level would include the value of natural resources. Pricing would change radically for gasoline if the costs of urban smog, acid rain, low-level ozone pollution, and global warming were taken into account. Strategies for sustainable development pertained to the preceding strategies and others indicated in the Agenda 21 Action Plan. If funding were better targeted to the poorest 20% of global population with high fertility rates, the accomplishments would be heralded. 1.2 million are living in absolute poverty, and aid for nutrition, primary health care, water and sanitation, basic education, and family planning amounts to only 10% of expenditures. An increase to 20% would mean a contribution from Americans of $7.50 per person or 33% of $25 thousand million from all developed countries. Developing countries need to lower their military expenditures, privatize public enterprises, change inappropriate development policies, eliminate corruption, and improve national governance. The debt burden should be reduced.     

Effects of land use on soil respiration: conversion of oak woodlands to vineyards

We examined constraints on soil CO2 respiration in natural oak woodlands, and adjacent vineyards that were converted approximately 30 yr ago from oak woodlands, in the Oakville Region of Napa Valley, California. All sites were located on the same soil type, a Bale (variant) gravelly loam (fine-loamy, mixed, superactive, thermic Cumulic Ultic Haploxeroll) and dominated by C3 vegetation. Seasonal soil CO2 efflux was greatest at the oak woodland sites, although during the summer drought the rates of soil CO2 efflux measured from oak sites were generally similar to those measured from the vineyards. Soil profile CO2 concentrations at the oak woodland sites were lower below 15 cm despite higher CO2 efflux rates. Soil gas diffusion coefficients for oak sites were larger than for vineyard sites, and this indicated that the apparent discrepancy in soil profile carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) may be caused by a diffusion limitation. Soil profile [CO2] and delta13C values showed substantial temporal changes over the course of a year. Vineyard soil CO2 was more depleted in 13CO2 below 25 cm in the soil profile during the active growing season as indicated by more negative delta13C ratios. This result indicated that different C sources were being oxidized in vineyard soils. Annual C losses were less from vineyard soils (7.02 +/- 0.58 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1)) as compared to oak soils (15.67 +/- 1.44 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1)), and both were comparable to losses reported in previous investigations.     

UNCALCULATED IMPACTS OF UNSUSTAINABLE AQUIFER YIELD INCLUDING EVIDENCE OF SUBSURFACE INTERBASIN FLOW1

ABSTRACT: Unsustainable withdrawals from regional aquifers have resulted in adverse impacts considerable distances from the point locations of supply wells. In one area of the southeastern (SE) Coastal Plain, conservative estimates for repair/replacement of some residential wells damaged or destroyed by unsustainable yield from the Floridan aquifer system exceeded $4 million. However, a comprehensive assessment of damage/economic loss to private property and public resources due to unsustainable yield from that regional karst aquifer has not been made. Uncalculated direct costs to home‐owners from damage attributed to those withdrawals are associated with destruction of homes from increased sinkhole formation, devalued waterfront property, and removal of diseased and dead trees. Examples of other uncalculated economic burdens resulting from unsustainable aquifer yield in the SE Coastal Plain include: (1) irreversible damage to the aquifer matrix and concomitant increased potential for groundwater contamination, (2) large‐scale wildfires with subsequent degradation of air quality, debilitation of transportation corridors, and destruction of timber, wildlife habitat and property, and (3) destruction of “protected” natural areas. This paper provides a general background of the regional Floridan aquifer system's karst characteristics, examples of known impacts resulting from ground water mining in the SE Coastal Plain, and examples of additional damage that may be related to unsustainable yield from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Costs of these impacts have not been calculated and are not reflected in the price users pay for ground water. Evidence suggests that the classic watershed management approach must be revised in areas with mined regional karst aquifers to include impacts of induced recharge from the surficial aquifer, and subsurface inter‐basin flow. Likewise, associated impacts to surface water and interrelated systems must be calculated. The true cost of groundwater mining to this and future generations should be determined using a multidisciplinary approach.     

An Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Land Cover on Flood Losses along the Gulf of Mexico Coast from 1999 to 2009

Major coastal flooding events over the last decade have led decision makers in the United States to favor structural engineering solutions as a means to protect vulnerable coastal communities from the adverse impacts of future storms. While a resistance‐based approach to flood mitigation involving large‐scale construction works may be a central component of a regional flood risk reduction strategy, it is equally important to consider the role of land use and land cover (LULC) patterns in protecting communities from floods. To date, little observational research has been conducted to quantify the effects of various LULC configurations on the amount of property damage occurring across coastal regions over time. In response, we statistically examine the impacts of LULC on observed flood damage across 2,692 watersheds bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, we analyze statistical linear regression models to isolate the influence of multiple LULC categories on over 372,000 insured flood losses claimed under the National Flood Insurance Program per year from 2001 to 2008. Results indicate that percent increase in palustrine wetlands is the equivalent to, on average, a $13,975 reduction in insured flood losses per year, per watershed. These and other results provide important insights to policy makers on how protecting specific types of LULC can help reduce adverse impacts to local communities.     

An assessment of ecosystem services of Corbett Tiger Reserve,India

This paper examines the economic value of selected ecosystem services of Corbett Tiger Reserve, India. The direct cost was derived from secondary sources, and indirect and opportunity costs through socioeconomic surveys. For recreational value the individual approach to travel cost method was used, and to assess carbon sequestration the replacement cost method was used. The maintenance cost of the reserve was estimated as US $2,153,174.3 year⁻¹. The indirect costs in terms of crop and livestock depredation by wild animals ranged from US $2,153,174.3 year⁻¹. The indirect costs in terms of crop and livestock depredation by wild animals ranged from US 2,408 to US $37,958 village⁻¹ over a period of 5 years. The dependence of local communities was for fuel wood (US $37,958 village⁻¹ over a period of 5 years. The dependence of local communities was for fuel wood (US 7,346 day⁻¹), fodder (US $5,290 day⁻¹), small timber, and other nontimber forest products. The recreational value of the reserve was estimated as US $5,290 day⁻¹), small timber, and other nontimber forest products. The recreational value of the reserve was estimated as US 167,619 year⁻¹. With the cost per visitor being US $2.5, the consumers’ surplus was large, showing the willingness of visitors to pay for wildlife recreation. The forests of the reserve mitigate carbon worth US $2.5, the consumers’ surplus was large, showing the willingness of visitors to pay for wildlife recreation. The forests of the reserve mitigate carbon worth US 63.6 million, with an annual flow of US $65.0 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. The other benefits of the reserve include US $65.0 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. The other benefits of the reserve include US 41 million through generation of electricity since 1972. The analysis reveals that, though the benefits outweigh costs, they need to be accrued to local communities so as to balance the distribution of benefits and costs.     

Changes in spring activity: Experiences of Kumaun Himalaya,India

Summary In Kumaun Himalaya, India, 60 percent of the rural population is dependent on natural springs for water supply. The authors claim that substantial reductions in spring water discharges are due to losses in the indigenous oak forest coverage and its partial replacement by pine. Other factors, such as overall forest cover depletion and construction activities, combine to produce severe reductions in spring discharge rates.Drs Anil Singh and Ravindra Pande are members of academic staff at Kumaun University working in the Laboratory for Hydrological and Geomorphological Investigations in the Department of Geography.     

River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool; a tool to screen options for reducing nutrient loads while minimizing cost

Excess loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to river networks causes environmental harm, but reducing loads from large river basins is difficult and expensive. We developed a new tool, the River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool (RBEROST) to identify the least-cost combinations of management practices that will reduce nutrient loading to target levels in downstream and mid-network waterbodies. We demonstrate the utility of the tool in a case study in the Upper Connecticut River Basin in New England, USA. The total project cost of optimized lowest-cost plans ranged from $18.0 million to $41.0 million per year over 15 years depending on user specifications. Plans include both point source and non-point source management practices, and most costs are associated with urban stormwater practices. Adding a 2% margin of safety to loading targets improved the estimated probability of success from 37.5% to 99%. The large spatial scale of RBEROST, and the consideration of both point and non-point source contributions of nutrients, make it well suited as an initial screening tool in watershed planning.     

Assessing the price effects of flood hazard disclosure under the California natural hazard disclosure law (AB 1195)

This study uses hedonic analysis to estimate the effects of flood hazard disclosure under the 1998 California Natural Hazard Disclosure Law (AB 1195) on property values throughout California. It finds that the average floodplain home sold for 4.2% less than a comparable non-floodplain home following AB 1195 while before that law there was no significant price differential. The introduction of interaction terms indicates that the magnitude of the price reduction due to AB 1195 varies positively with Hispanic population share. An average floodplain home in a half-Hispanic neighbourhood saw a $12 324 negative capitalization due to AB 1195, while that amount was only $2191 for a neighbourhood with 10% Hispanic residents. Results suggest that, in particular, homebuyers in Hispanic communities are better disclosed to under AB 1195 than they were under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which was the primary policy regulating flood disclosure in California prior to passage of AB 1195.     

Assessing the ecosystem service of air pollutant removal by urban trees in Guangzhou (China)

In Chinese cities, air pollution has become a serious and aggravating environmental problem undermining the sustainability of urban ecosystems and the quality of urban life. Besides technical solutions to abate air pollution, urban vegetation is increasingly recognized as an alternative ameliorative method by removing some pollutants mainly through dry deposition process. This paper assesses the capability and monetary value of this ecosystem service in Guangzhou city in South China. The results indicated an annual removal of SO(2), NO(2) and total suspended particulates at about 312.03Mg, and the benefits were valued at RMB90.19 thousand (US$1.00=RMB8.26). More removal was realized by recreational land use due to a higher tree cover. Higher concentration of pollutants in the dry winter months induced more removal. The lower cost of pollution abatement in China generated a relatively subdued monetary value of this environmental benefit in comparison with developed countries. Younger districts with more extensive urban trees stripped more pollutants from the air, and this capacity was anticipated to increase further as their trees gradually reach final dimensions and establish a greater tree cover. Tree cover and pollutant concentration constitute the main factors in pollutant removal by urban trees. The efficiency of atmospheric cleansing by trees in congested Chinese cities could be improved by planting more trees other than shrubs or grass, diversifying species composition and biomass structure, and providing sound green space management. The implications for greenery design were discussed with a view to maximizing this ecosystem service in Chinese cities and other developing metropolises.     

Agricultural and recreational impacts of the conservation reserve program in rural North Dakota, USA

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), created in 1985, provides conservation benefits and agricultural supply control through voluntary, long-term retirement of crop land. While the effects of the CRP on the agricultural sector are well understood, the implications of its conservation benefits for rural economies remain largely undocumented. To quantify the effects on rural economies, this study addressed the net economic effects of decreased agricultural activity and increased recreational activity associated with the CRP in six rural areas of North Dakota from 1996 to 2000. Based on the level of economic activity that would have occurred in the absence of the program, net revenues from CRP land if returned to agricultural production in the six study areas were estimated at $50.2 million annually or $37 per acre of land currently enrolled in the CRP. Recreational (hunting) revenues as a result of the CRP in the study areas were estimated at $12.8 million annually or $9.45 per CRP-acre. The net economic effect of the CRP (lost agricultural revenues and gains in recreational expenditures) indicated that several areas of the state are not as economically burdened by the CRP as previous research has suggested. In addition, the net economic effects of the program would appear more favourable if revenues from all CRP-based recreation were included. The degree that recreational revenues offset agricultural losses might be further enhanced by enterprises that capitalize on the economic opportunities associated with expanded recreational activities on CRP lands.     

A COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY PROTECTION IN THE CATAWBA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The primary objective of this study was to perform a cost‐benefit analysis of maintaining the current level of water quality in the Catawba River basin. Economic benefits were estimated using a stated preference survey method designed to value respondents' willingness to pay for a management plan to protect water quality in the Catawba basin over time. From the surveys conducted with 1,085 area residents, we calculated an annual mean willingness to pay of $139 for the management plan, or more than $75.4 million for all taxpayers in the area. Over the five‐year time horizon in which respondents were asked to pay for the management plan, this resulted in a total economic benefit of $340.1 million. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used to estimate the amount of management activities needed to protect the current level of water quality in the basin over time. Based on the model results, the total cost of the management plan was calculated to be $244.8 million over a ten‐year period. The resulting cost‐benefit analysis indicated that the potential benefits of this management plan would outweigh the costs by more than $95 million.