Lake eutrophication management modeling using dynamic programming

Lake eutrophication problems have received considerable attention in Taiwan, especially because they relate to the quality of drinking water. In this study, steady-state river water quality and lake eutrophication models are solved using dynamic programming algorithms to find the nutrient removal rates for eutrophication control during dry season. The kinetic cycle of chlorophyll-a, phosphorus and nitrogen for a complete-mixed lake is considered in the optimization framework. The Newton-iterative technique is adopted to solve the nonlinear equations for the steady-state lake eutrophication model. The optimization framework is applied to Cheng-Ching Lake in southern Taiwan. Several nutrient loading scenarios for eutrophication control are studied. Optimization results for nutrient removal rates and corresponding wastewater treatment capacities of each reach of the Kao-Ping River define the least cost approach to lake eutrophication control. A natural purification method, structural free water surface wetland, is also suggested to save more investment and improve river water quality at the same time.     

An innovative modeling approach using Qual2K and HEC-RAS integration to assess the impact of tidal effect on River Water quality simulation

Water quality modeling has been shown to be a useful tool in strategic water quality management. The present study combines the Qual2K model with the HEC-RAS model to assess the water quality of a tidal river in northern Taiwan. The contaminant loadings of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment oxygen demand (SOD) are utilized in the Qual2K simulation. The HEC-RAS model is used to: (i) estimate the hydraulic constants for atmospheric re-aeration constant calculation; and (ii) calculate the water level profile variation to account for concentration changes as a result of tidal effect. The results show that HEC-RAS-assisted Qual2K simulations taking tidal effect into consideration produce water quality indices that, in general, agree with the monitoring data of the river. Comparisons of simulations with different combinations of contaminant loadings demonstrate that BOD is the most import contaminant. Streeter-Phelps simulation (in combination with HEC-RAS) is also performed for comparison, and the results show excellent agreement with the observed data. This paper is the first report of the innovative use of a combination of the HEC-RAS model and the Qual2K model (or Streeter-Phelps equation) to simulate water quality in a tidal river. The combination is shown to provide an alternative for water quality simulation of a tidal river when available dynamic-monitoring data are insufficient to assess the tidal effect of the river.     

WATER QUALITY MODELING FOR THE FEITSUI RESERVOIR IN NORTHERN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: Field data collected from the Feitsui Reservoir in Taiwan indicate that the water is at a stage between mesotrophic and eutrophic. Recent measurements such as total phosphorus, chlorophyll a and Secchi depth levels suggest that the water quality has been declining. A two‐dimensional, laterally averaged, finite difference hydrodynamic and water quality model was used to simulate the water quality in the Feitsui Reservoir in an effort to determine sound water quality management strategies. The model was calibrated and verified using data collected in 1996 and 1997. The calibrated model was used to simulate algal biomass (in terms of chlorophyll a) levels under various wasteload reduction scenarios. Model results show that 50 percent reduction of the total phosphorus load will improve the existing water quality, shifting the trophic status from eutrophic/mesotrophic to oligotrophic. The modeling effort has yielded valuable information that can be used by decision makers for the evaluation of different management strategies of reducing watershed nutrient loads.     

REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT BY THE GENERALIZED REDUCED GRADIENT METHOD1

ABSTRACT: A river basin-wide water quality management system is considered. The river receives thermal as well as organic wastes. At-source treatment of these pollutants is imposed to control the basin-wide water quality. The related water quality standards are: the minimum DO concentration, the maximum allowable BOD concentration, the maximum allowable stream temperature, and the allowable rise in stream temperature. The general dynamic mathematical model representing water quality in streams and the thermal effects on BOD and DO concentrations is presented. The model is highly nonlinear in nature. The optimal management problem involving the model is solved by a recently developed nonlinear propgramming technique - the generalized reduced gradient (GRG) method. Comparison of results obtained by the GRG method vs. dynamic programming, and of results using a more realistic mathematical model vs. a simple model are presented. The analysis procedure can be applied to designing new and examining existing water quality programs, and to study the influence of alternate policies and constraints.     

NUTRIENT LOADING ASSESSMENT IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER USING A SYNTHETIC APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A synthetic relationship is developed between nutrient concentrations and discharge rates at two river gauging sites in the Illinois River Basin. Analysis is performed on data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on nutrients in 1990 through 1997 and 1999 and on discharge rates in 1988 through 1997 and 1999. The Illinois River Basin is in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma and is designated as an Oklahoma Scenic River. Consistently high nutrient concentrations in the river and receiving water bodies conflict with recreational water use, leading to intense stakeholder debate on how best to manage water quality. Results show that the majority of annual phosphorus (P) loading is transported by direct runoff, with high concentrations transported by high discharge rates and low concentrations by low discharge rates. A synthetic relationship is derived and used to generate daily phosphorus concentrations, laying the foundation for analysis of annual loading and evaluation of alternative management practices. Total nitrogen (N) concentration does not have as clear a relationship with discharge. Using a simple regression relationship, annual P loadings are estimated as having a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 39.8 t/yr and 31.9 t/yr and mean absolute percentage errors of 19 percent and 28 percent at Watts and Tahlequah, respectively. P is the limiting nutrient over the full range of discharges. Given that the majority of P is derived from Arkansas, management practices that control P would have the most benefit if applied on the Arkansas side of the border.     

CALIBRATION AND APPLICATION OF QUAL-II TO THE LOWER WINOOSKI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: A modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's QUAL-II water quality simulation model is calibrated and applied to the Lower Winooski River, Vermont. The river flows through the metropolitan Burlington area and is impacted by several industrial and municipal point sources and by operation of hydropower facilities. Several structural modifications are made in the model to improve water quality simulations in rivers impacted by algal growth; these include the addition of organic nitrogen and organic phosphorus compartments and provision for algal uptake of ammonia and/or nitrate nitrogen. The model is interfaced with statistical programs which facilitate tabulation, display, and analysis of observed and predicted concentrations. The model is calibrated and tested against data from two intensive water quality surveys. Applications demonstrate the factors controlling water quality and sensitivities to point source waste management strategies and flow, as influenced by hydropower operations.     

灰色预测模型GM（1,1）在地面水质预测中的应用

本文将地面水质视作灰色系统,对某河段的化学耗氧量(COD),生化耗氧量(BOD_5)用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行建模、预测。最大误5.2％,平均误差小于0.2％,模型精度高。建模需要的数据较少,对数据的分布无特殊要求,方法和计算简单,实用价值大,是地面水质预测预报的一种有效方法。     

基于十圩港考核断面达标的入江支流污染来源研究

泰州靖江市新十圩港大桥省考断面近年来水质出现超标现象,为了控制该断面水质达标,不让超标水汇入长江.基于水文、水质和污染源资料,建立了靖江市十圩港河流一维水环境数学模型.利用控制断面达标法、污染影响分担率计算法得到十圩港河道的水环境容量与各镇分担率.与现状污染物入河量对比,从而确定了研究区域内各类污染物的削减量;根据各入...     

A MULTICOMPONENT MODEL OF PHOSPHORUS DYNAMICS IN RESERVOIRS1

The models available for simulating phosphorus dynamics and trophic state in impoundments vary widely. The simpler empirically derived phosphorus models tend to be appropriate for long-term, steady or near steady state analyses. The more complex ecosystem models, because of computational expense and the importance of input parameter uncertainty, are impractical for very long-term simulation and most applicable for time-variable water quality simulations generally of short to intermediate time frames. An improved model for time variable, long-term simulation of trophic state in reservoirs with fluctuating inflow and outflow rates and volume is needed. Such a model is developed in this paper representing the phosphorus cycle in two-layer (i.e., epilimnion and hypolimnion) reservoirs. The model is designed to simulate seasonally varying reservoir water quality and eutrophication potential by using the phosphorus state variable as the water quality indicator. Long-term simulations with fluctuating volumes and variable influent and effluent flow rates are feasible and practical. The model utility is demonstrated through application to a pumped storage reservoir characteristic of these conditions.     

Effect of reservoir flushing on downstream river water quality

The effect of short-term reservoir flushing on downstream water quality in the Geum River, Korea was studied using field experiments and computer simulations. The reservoir release was increased from 30 to 200 m(3)/s within 6 h for the purpose of this experiment. The flushing discharge decreased the concentrations of soluble nitrogen and phosphorus species considerably, but the experimental results revealed a negative impact on organic forms of nutrients and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD). A dynamic river water quality model was applied to simulate the river hydraulics and water quality variations during the event. The model showed very good performance in predicting the travel time of flushing flow and the variations of dissolved forms of nitrogen and phosphorus constituents. However, it revealed a limited capability in simulating organic forms of nutrients and BOD because it does not consider the re-suspension mechanism of these constituents from sediment during the wave front passage.     

Water quality modeling to determine minimum instream flow for fish survival in tidal rivers

The Hsintien Stream is one of the major branches of the Danshuei River system, which runs through the metropolitan capital city of Taipei, Taiwan and receives a large amount of wastewater. The dissolved oxygen concentration is generally low in the tidal portion of the Hsintien Stream. Hypoxia/anoxia occurs often, particularly during the low-flow period when the Feitsui Reservoir, Chingtan Dam and Chihtan Dam impound the freshwater for municipal water supply. Fish kills happen from time to time. This paper describes the application of a numerical hydrodynamic and water quality model to the Danshuei River system, with special attention to the tidal portion of the Hsintien Stream. The model is recalibrated with the prototype conditions of the year 2000. The hydrodynamic portion of the model is recalibrated with measured surface elevation and velocity at various stations in the river system. The water quality portion of the model is recalibrated with respect to the field data provided by Taiwan EPA. The input data of point and nonpoint sources are also estimated. The model simulates the concentrations of various forms of nutrients, CBOD and dissolved oxygen. A series of sensitivity runs was conducted to investigate the effects of point source loadings and river flow on the DO level in the river. It is demonstrated that the augmentation of river flow has as much effect on raising DO level as the reduction of point source loadings. The completion of the Taipei sewer project is expected to reduce the point source loadings by at least 75%. Under these reduced loadings, if the daily instream flow is maintained above the monthly Q75 flow throughout the year, the minimum DO concentration in the river would not fall below 1mg/L, which is the suffocation level for most fish species in the Hsintien Stream. (Q75 is the flow which is equaled or exceeded 75% of the days in the month.) The Feitsui Reservoir, Chingtan Dam and Chihtan Dam may impound water during the high flow periods and release freshwater to maintain the flow at the Q75 value in the Hsintien Stream during the drought periods.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON RIVERS: CONSEQUENCES FOR LONG TERM WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Associations between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and temporal variability in flow and 12 water quality variables were assessed at 77 river sites throughout New Zealand over a 13‐year period (1989 through 2001). Trends in water quality were determined for the same period. All 13 variables showed statistically significant linear regression relationships with values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The strongest relationships were for water temperature (mean R²= 0.20), dissolved reactive phosphorus (0.18), and oxidized nitrogen (0.17). The association with SOI varied by climate region. The observed patterns were generally consistent with known ENSO effects on New Zealand rainfall and air temperature. Trends in water quality variables for the periods 1989 through 1993, 1994 through 1998, and 1989 through 1998 were reasonably consistent with trends in SOI, even when the influence of river flow was removed from the data. This suggests that SOI effects on water quality are not necessarily a direct consequence of changes in flow associated with rainfall variation. In addition, both Baseline (32 upstream) and Impact (45 downstream) sites showed similar trends, indicating that changes in management were not directly responsible. We conclude that interpretation of long term water quality datasets in rivers requires that climate variability be fully acknowledged and dealt with explicitly in trend analyses.     

AN ILLUSTRATION OF MODEL STRUCTURE IDENTIFICATION1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this article is to discuss the importance of uncertainty analysis in water quality modeling, with an emphasis on the identification of the correct model specification. A wetland phosphorus retention model is used as an example to illustrate the procedure of using a filtering technique for model structure identification. Model structure identification is typically done through model parameter estimation. However, due to many sources of error in both model parameterization and observed variables and data, error-in-variable is often a problem. Therefore, it is not appropriate to use the least squares method for parameter estimation. Two alternative methods for parameter estimation are presented. The first method is the maximum likelihood estimator, which assumes independence of the observed response variable values. In anticipating the possible violation of the independence assumption, a second method, which coupled a maximum likelihood estimator and Kalman filter model, was presented. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is presented as a preliminary method for judging whether the model structure is appropriate or not.     

Comparative Evaluation of Three River Water Quality Models1

Abstract: Selection of a biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) reaction model to incorporate into dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality models is an overlooked choice available to river water quality modelers. Data from rivers can serve in screening methods to discriminate between competing water quality models. In this study, 15 published BOD and DO datasets based on a 7 year long study of the Bormida River in Italy are used to calibrate three‐multiorder BOD models: first‐order, three‐halves order, and second‐order, which are then included in three corresponding DO models which incorporate these BOD models. The adequacy of the first‐order, three‐halves order and second‐order BOD models was evaluated by calculating the root mean square error between a model and data. A similar procedure was followed to evaluate three DO models, each of which incorporated one of the three BOD models. The first‐order BOD model most frequently fit the river data best, followed by the three‐halves order and the second‐order BOD models. The DO model incorporating a first‐order BOD model most frequently fit the data best, followed by the DO order incorporating second‐order BOD and the DO model incorporating three‐halves order BOD.     

Water quality modelling of the river Yamuna (India) using QUAL2E-UNCAS

This paper describes the utility of QUAL2E as a modelling package in the evaluation of a water quality improvement programme. In this study, QUAL2E was applied to determine the pollution loads in the river Yamuna during its course through the national capital territory of Delhi, India. The study aimed at examining the influence of different scenarios on river water quality. Four different pollution scenarios were analysed besides the 'business as usual' situation. The study revealed that it was necessary to treat the discharge from drains to the river Yamuna and diversion of a substantial load to the Agra canal for further treatment was also essential. It was also established through this study that maintaining a flow rate of more than 10 m(3)/s in the river could also help preserve the river's water quality. To clearly display the model outcomes and demarcate polluted zones in the river stretch, model results were interfaced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to produce cartographic outputs. In addition, uncertainty analysis in the form of first-order error analysis and Monte Carlo analysis was performed, to realise the effect of each model parameter on DO and BOD predictions. The uncertainty analysis gave satisfactory results on simulated data.     

河流水质模型在双流县流域治理中的应用

研究利用现有的河流水质模型,构建了一个可实时模拟河流水环境质量变化状况的动态模型。模型采用一维稳态单组分水质模型对河流的CODCr、NH3-N的降解进行计算,采用多宾斯-坎普稳态模型对河流的BOD、DO变化情况进行计算。模型引入水文数据、水质监测数据、环境统计数据、社会统计公报数据,以Excel作为数据平台,可以反演出河流不同月份、不同区段的污染物降解系数。研究将该模型应用于双流县的流域治理,以在锦江双流段的应用为例进行了具体说明。根据2008年双流县河流的相关数据,研究使用该模型反演出了锦江双流段的污染物降解系数,并对其反映的流域污染状况进行了分析。随后,研究使用该模型已计算出的岷江中段河流的降解系数,模拟计算了4种情景下锦江双流段出境断面的可能水质变化,以验证拟定的双流县流域治理方案的预期效果。模型具有实用性和进一步扩展的功能。     

A Sensitivity and Error Analysis Framework for Lake Eutrophication Modeling1

ABSTRACT: A framework for sensitivity and error analysis in mathematical modeling is described and demonstrated. The Lake Eutrophication Analysis Procedure (LEAP) consists of a series of linked models which predict lake water quality conditions as a function of watershed land use, hydrolgic variables, and morphometric variables. Specification of input variables as distributions (means and standard errors) and use of first-order error analysis techniques permits estimation of output variable means, standard errors, and confidence ranges. Predicted distributions compare favorably with those estimated using Monte-Carlo simulation. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to data from Lake Morey, Vermont. While possible biases exist in the models calibrated for this application, prediction variances, attributed chiefly to model error, are comparable to the observed year-to-year variance in water quality, as measured by spring phosphorus concentration, hypolimnetic oxygen depletion rate, summer chlorophyll-a, and summer transparency in this lake. Use of the framework provides insight into important controlling factors and relationships and identifies the major sources of uncertainty in a given model application.     

Relationship of Land‐Use/Land‐Cover Patterns and Surface‐Water Quality in The Mullica River Basin1

Abstract: We describe relationships between pH, specific conductance, calcium, magnesium, chloride, sulfate, nitrogen, and phosphorus and land‐use patterns in the Mullica River basin, a major New Jersey Pinelands watershed, and determine the thresholds at which significant changes in water quality occur. Nonpoint sources are the main contributors of pollutants to surface waters in the basin. Using multiple regression and water‐quality data for 25 stream sites, we determine the percentage of variation in the water‐quality data explained by urban land and upland agriculture and evaluate whether the proximity of these land uses influences water‐quality/land‐use relationships. We use a second, independently collected water‐quality dataset to validate the statistical models. The multiple‐regression results indicate that water‐quality degradation in the study area is associated with basin‐wide upland land uses, which are generally good predictors of water‐quality conditions, and that both urban land and upland agriculture must be included in models to more fully describe the relationship between watershed disturbance and water quality. Including the proximity of land uses did not improve the relationship between land use and water quality. Ten‐percent altered‐land cover in a basin represents the threshold at which a significant deviation from reference‐site water‐quality conditions occurs in the Mullica River basin.     

基于MIKE 21的汾河水库挟沙水流水质数值模拟研究

为了揭示悬浮泥沙(SSC)对水库水质的影响规律,对汾河水库进行样品收集和长期水质监测,采用水动力模型与泥沙转移和富营养化模型相结合的方法,将这三者关联耦合,并通过实测数据对模型进行参数率定和验证,分析含沙水和不含沙水中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、叶绿素a(Chla)、溶解氧(DO)四项指标,得出两者对水质造成的影响。结果表明:SSC对TN、TP的去除作用明显,对Chla、DO浓度分布影响较小,并计算了污染物的释放量以及贡献率,得出TP的负荷仅为16.47t,而贡献率高达25.25%。因此在汾河的污染控制方面应侧重削减磷,进而改善汾河地区的污染现状。     

MFAM模型在河流水质污染模拟及预测中的应用

文中以时间序列分析为基础，介绍了均值生成函数这一崭新概念，并且经成份因子提取分析推导建立了模拟序列的数字模型（简记为MFAM），经对黄河下游花园口断面的1988-1989年实测水质污染指标溶解氧（DO），氨氧，化学耗氧量（COD），五日生化需氧量（BOD5）等序列模拟，结果表明MFAM模型能较好地模拟河流水质污染指标的变化趋势，拟合平均误差只有5.2-6.4%，MFAM模型应用于预测1990-1991年水质污染指标变化，结果表明预测精度达85%以上，文中最后得出结论：MFAM模型应用于河流污染模拟和预测，是完全可行且十分方便。