ESTIMATES OF MEAN CHLOROPHYLL-a CONCENTRATION: PRECISION,ACCURACY, AND SAMPLING DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Data from 56 north-temperate lakes and reservoirs are used to develop models predicting temporal variance as a function of the mean chlorophyll-a concentration. Trophy, as estimated by mean chlorophyll-a concentration, is shown to have little effect on the sampling effort required to achieve a pre-determined level of precision for lakes sampled year-round. Collecting ten observations results in a coefficient of variation that averaged 20 percent; collecting more than ten observations yields increasingly marginal improvements in precision. The same guidelines apply to mesotrophic or eutrophic lakes sampled in the summer, whereas oligotrophic lakes sampled in the summer require fewer observations to achieve the same level of precision. The bias resulting from collecting too few observations is minimized if five or more observations are collected.     

Estimating upper percentiles of surface water monitoring data with sparse samples

The estimation of upper percentiles of chemical concentrations in surface water systems within sites and regions may be necessary for the assessment of potential risk to ecosystems and human health. Limited sample sizes at monitoring sites often limit the use of direct methods to estimate upper percentiles. In such cases, upper percentiles within regions within a time frame may be estimated by pooling data across sites and years, and then deriving percentile estimates from the pooled dataset. The method uses the observations resulting from either a known probability-sampling design or a sampling design treated like one because its observations come close to matching that of a probability-sample. These observations are then weighted to ensure that estimates are representative of a target population across all the sites within the region and the range of years in the time frame. This method of estimating upper percentiles of annual site concentration profiles is demonstrated using atrazine and validated using the monitoring data from both sparsely sampled and high-frequency water monitoring programs, where point and interval estimates of the 90th, 95th, and 99th pooled population percentiles are provided. This method shows that the pooled data from multiple sparse datasets can be used to provide estimates of near-peak concentrations with greater certainty, which are consistent with those generated by high-frequency sampling monitoring programs.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

CONCEPTUAL DESIGN PROCEDURE FOR HYDRAULIC DESTRATIFICATION SYSTEMS IN SMALL PONDS,LAKES, OR RESERVOIRS FOR WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Forced artificial mixing of temperature-stratified ponds, or small lakes or reservoirs, by liquid jets can enhance water quality and can also be energy efficient. Based on previous studies of jet mixing mechanics of stratified water bodies, a conceptual design approach is presented. The main “operational” and “system” design parameters are considered in the proposed method. Using minimization of a total cost estimate as a criterion, an iterative method for the selection of the number and size of the jets is developed and illustrated.     

EFFECT OF SERIAL CORRECTION ON GROUND WATER QUALITY SAMPLING FREQUENCY1

ABSTRACT: Methods of calculating uncertainty in estimates of serial correlation coefficients, and correcting for bias in short and medium length (less than 50 data point) records, are presented. Uncertainty and bias in the estimation of serial correlation coefficients for ground water quality data is shown to be considerable and to result in inaccurate calculation of the sampling frequencies for monitoring purposes. The methods are applied to a ground water data set consisting of 87 monthly measurements of nitrate concentrations. The variation in serial correlation coefficients with variation of record length is examined. The optimum sampling frequencies for detection of changes in ground water nitrate concentrations are estimated.     

Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program1

Kardos, Josef S. and Christopher C. Obropta, 2011. Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1317–1337. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00591.x Abstract: Water quality modeling is a major source of scientific uncertainty in the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process. The effects of these uncertainties extend to water quality trading programs designed to implement TMDLs. This study examines the effects of water quality model uncertainty on a nutrient trading program. The study builds on previous work to design a phosphorus trading program for the Nontidal Passaic River Basin in New Jersey that would implement the watershed TMDL for total phosphorus (TP). The study identified how water quality model uncertainty affects outcomes of potential trades of TP between wastewater treatment plants. The uncertainty analysis found no evidence to suggest that the outcome of trades between wastewater treatment plants, as compared with command and control regulation, will significantly increase uncertainty in the attainment of dissolved oxygen surface water quality standards, site‐specific chlorophyll a criteria, and reduction targets for diverted TP load at potential hot spots in the watershed. Each simulated trading scenario demonstrated parity with or improvement from the command and control approach at the TMDL critical locations, and low risk of hot spots elsewhere.     

鲁班水库水体营养状态

四川三台鲁班水库属于大型湖库,多年来除具有特色景观作为旅游景点外,主要用于发展水产养殖业。随着时间的延续,养殖规模的不断扩大,湖库的自净能力越来越差,使有机物污染不断加重,水质越来越差,出现富营养化现象,对水环境造成了不利影响。近年来,为了改变湖库水环境质量,调整转化湖库功能,恢复水环境质量,加强了对其水质的监测,其中的营养状态指标是湖库水环境质量的主要评价指标。评价结果,除秋季和冬季个别月份外,其余各月均有测点达到轻度富营养化及中度富营养化。     

Using GIS to Generate Spatially Balanced Random Survey Designs for Natural Resource Applications

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sample apply to the entire population. Probability survey designs should be used in natural resource and environmental management situations because they provide the mathematical foundation for statistical inference. Development of long-term monitoring designs demand survey designs that achieve statistical rigor and are efficient but remain flexible to inevitable logistical or practical constraints during field data collection. Here we describe an approach to probability-based survey design, called the Reversed Randomized Quadrant-Recursive Raster, based on the concept of spatially balanced sampling and implemented in a geographic information system. This provides environmental managers a practical tool to generate flexible and efficient survey designs for natural resource applications. Factors commonly used to modify sampling intensity, such as categories, gradients, or accessibility, can be readily incorporated into the spatially balanced sample design.     

DEFINING REGIONAL POPULATIONS OF LAKES FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF SURFACE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Topographic maps are commonly used to define populations of lakes in regional surveys of surface water quality. To illustrate the effect of different maps on that process, we compared the lakes represented on the 1:250,000-scale maps used for the Northeast Region of the Eastern Lake Survey—Phase I (ELS-I) to the lakes on a sample of large-scale maps (1:24,000 or 1:62,500). Lake areas at or near the lower limit of representation delimited “smallest-lake” values for the compared 1:250,000-scale maps. The regional median for these values was 4.5 hectares (ha) and ranged from 0.6 to 24.8 ha. Lake representation is influenced by cartographic limitations such as map scale, age, and complexity as well as the inherent variability of waterbodies (e.g., water level fluctuations or the creation of reservoirs, beaver impoundments, and oxbows). The total number of lakes on large-scale maps increased markedly as lake area decreased. Approximately 15,700 of the estimated 29,000 lakes in the EPA's Northeast Region were 1 to 4 ha in area. Because maps affect the size distribution of lakes included in a regional survey and because lake areas are thought to modify lake chemistry, maps ultimately affect the estimates of regional surface water quality.     

Detecting acid precipitation impacts on lake water quality

The United States Environmental Protection Agency is planning to expand its long-term monitoring of lakes that are sensitive to acid deposition effects. Effective use of resources will require a careful definition of the statistical objectives of monitoring, a network design which balances spatial and temporal coverage, and a sound approach to data analysis. This study examines the monitoring objective of detecting trends in water quality for individual lakes and small groups of lakes. Appropriate methods of trend analysis are suggested, and the power of trend detection under seasonal (quarterly) sampling is compared to that of annual sampling. The effects of both temporal and spatial correlation on trend detection ability are described.     

WATER QUALITY SAMPLING SCHEMES FOR VARIABLE FLOW CANALS AT REMOTE SITES1

ABSTRACT: Growing interest in water quality has resulted in the development of monitoring networks and intensive sampling for various constituents. Common purposes are regulatory, source and sink understanding, and trend observations. Water quality monitoring involves monitoring system design; sampling site instrumentation; and sampling, analysis, quality control, and assurance. Sampling is a process to gather information with the least cost and least error. Various water quality sampling schemes have been applied for different sampling objectives and time frames. In this study, a flow proportional composite sampling scheme is applied to variable flow remote canals where the flow rate is not known a priori. In this scheme, historical weekly flow data are analyzed to develop high flow and low flow sampling trigger volumes for auto‐samplers. The median flow is used to estimate low flow sampling trigger volume and the five percent exceedence probability flow is used for high flow sampling trigger volume. A computer simulation of high resolution sampling is used to demonstrate the comparative bias in load estimation and operational cost among four sampling schemes. Weekly flow proportional composite auto‐sampling resulted in the least bias in load estimation with competitive operational cost compared to daily grab, weekly grab sampling and time proportional auto‐sampling.     

Evaluating the effects of spatial monitoring policy on groundwater quality portrayal

What size sample is sufficient for spatially sampling ambient groundwater quality? Water quality data are only as spatially accurate as the geographic sampling strategies used to collect them. This research used sequential sampling and regression analysis to evaluate groundwater quality spatial sampling policy changes proposed by California's Department of Water Resources. Iterative or sequential sampling of a hypothetical groundwater basin's water quality produced data sets from sample sizes ranging from 2.8% to 95% coverage of available point sample sites. Contour maps based on these sample data sets were compared to an original (control), mapped hypothetical data set, to determine at which point map information content and pattern portrayal are not improved by increasing sample sizes. Comparing series of contour maps of ground water quality concentration is a common means of evaluating the geographic extent of groundwater quality change. Comparisons included visual inspection of contout maps and statistical tests on digital versions of these map files, including correlation and regression products. This research demonstrated that, down to about 15% sample site coverage, there is no difference between contour maps produced from the different sampling strategies and the contout map of the original data set.     

A Hydrological Model for Predicting the Effects of Dams on the Shoreline Vegetation of Lakes and Reservoirs

/ The species richness of shoreline vegetation of unregulated lakes in Nova Scotia, Canada, is known to increase as a function of catchment area, a topographic variable governing water level fluctuations. Predictions based on catchment area however, fail to account for richness patterns at the margins of lakes enlarged by dams. Here, we compare the vegetation and hydrological regimes of regulated and unregulated systems. Hydrological regimes of regulated systems deviated from natural systems of similar catchment area by being either hypovariable or hypervariable for both within-year and among-year fluctuations in water level. Plant communities of dammed systems were less diverse, contained more exotic species, and were, with one exception, devoid of rare shoreline herbs. Data from "recovering," or previously dammed systems indicated that shoreline communities can be restored upon return of the appropriate hydrological regime. Using observed within-year and among-year water level fluctuation data, we propose a general model for the maintenance or restoration of diverse herbaceous wetlands on shorelines of temperate lakes or reservoirs. Managers can manipulate the within-year water level variation within prescribed limits (1-2 m), while ensuring that among-year variation (SD of summer levels) is less than 25% of within-year variation. This preliminary model is based on data from low-fertility, temperate lakes in river systems. To calibrate the model, plant community data from other regions are needed, as are long-term water-level data for unregulated lakes, data which are essential but largely lacking in many areas.KEY WORDS: Catchment area; Regulated lakes; Shoreline restoration; Rare plants; Exotic plants; Diversity     

Grouping Lakes for Water Quality Assessment and Monitoring: The Roles of Regionalization and Spatial Scale

Regionalization frameworks cluster geographic data to create contiguous regions of similar climate, geology and hydrology by delineating land into discrete regions, such as ecoregions or watersheds, often at several spatial scales. Although most regionalization schemes were not originally designed for aquatic ecosystem classification or management, they are often used for such purposes, with surprisingly few explicit tests of the relative ability of different regionalization frameworks to group lakes for water quality monitoring and assessment. We examined which of 11 different lake grouping schemes at two spatial scales best captures the maximum amount of variation in water quality among regions for total nutrients, water clarity, chlorophyll, overall trophic state, and alkalinity in 479 lakes in Michigan (USA). We conducted analyses on two data sets: one that included all lakes and one that included only minimally disturbed lakes. Using hierarchical linear models that partitioned total variance into within-region and among-region components, we found that ecological drainage units and 8-digit hydrologic units most consistently captured among-region heterogeneity at their respective spatial scales using all lakes (variation among lake groups = 3% to 50% and 12% to 52%, respectively). However, regionalization schemes capture less among-region variance for minimally disturbed lakes. Diagnostics of spatial autocorrelation provided insight into the relative performance of regionalization frameworks but also demonstrated that region size is only partly responsible for capturing variation among lakes. These results suggest that regionalization schemes can provide useful frameworks for lake water quality assessment and monitoring but that we must identify the appropriate spatial scale for the questions being asked, the type of management applied, and the metrics being assessed.     

NUTRIENT LOADS TO WISCONSIN LAKES: PART II. RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF NUTRIENT SOURCES1

ABSTRACT: A comparison of municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and nonpoint source nutrient loads to Wisconsin's 14,927 inland lakes was performed. Only 65 of the 2,925 Wisconsin lakes having surface areas of at least eight ha and a maximum depth of at least 2.4 m had one or more WWTP's located within 40 km upstream; 99 of Wisconsin's 477 WWTP's were identified to be upstream of these 65 lakes. WWTP total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads to these 65 lakes were estimated using per capita influent loads and removal efficiencies based on wastewater treatment types. Nonpoint source nutrient loads were calculated utilizing nutrient export coefficients derived specifically for Wisconsin. Total nitrogen inputs to the lakes were dominated by nonpoint sources. The effectiveness of various phosphorus control programs to produce water quality improvements visible to the public was estimated to be as follows (going from most to least effective): municipal phosphorus removal and agricultural reductions, municipal phosphorus removal alone, agricultural reduction plus phosphate detergent ban, agricultural reductions alone, and phosphate detergent ban alone. The last option would not be expected to produce water quality improvement visible to the public in any Wisconsin lakes. The differences between the distributions in Wisconsin of population and inland lakes highlights the need to consider regional characteristics in any statewide water quality management plan.     

The environmental audit. II. Application to stream network design

The planning and execution of water quality management programs requires careful collection and analysis of data coupled with a systematic review and analysis of programmatic success. The environmental audit is a tool which facilitates improved water quality planning and management. This article demonstrates the utility of the environmental audit by reviewing portions of a comprehensive review of the water quality management program for the state of Idaho. The audit is a tool which forces careful design of a sampling program before data are collected. In the audit approach, program objectives are clearly stated prior to initiation of sampling. Stated objectives are also evaluated regularly to identify tension points, that is, conflicts between expectations and reality. In the example taken from Idaho, a management review team followed a directive to redesign the water quality monitoring program. We present a summary of the redesign as proposed by that team, to illustrate the results of a typical review of monitoring programs. That summary is followed by an example of how the proposed program would differ if the audit approach had been used. The two approaches offered both coincident and conflicting recommendations. Management review team and audit recommendations for lake sampling programs were similar even though a different process was used to develop the recommendations. The most striking contrast between the two results lies in the review team's approach to the problem. The directives followed, and the team's responses, concentrate on tools, such as increasing biological monitoring or reliance on monthly BWMP stations. In contrast, the audit results stress addressing management questions for which clear objectives have been stated, depending on specific tools only as needed to meet stated objectives. Although the audit does integrate externalities in its structure, it is little affected by economic or political influences. A major strength of the audit approach is its ability to provide defensible data for management decision making.     

Effects of Stock Use and Backpackers on Water Quality in Wilderness in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, USA

During 2010–2011, a study was conducted in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) to evaluate the influence of pack animals (stock) and backpackers on water quality in wilderness lakes and streams. The study had three main components: (1) a synoptic survey of water quality in wilderness areas of the parks, (2) paired water quality sampling above and below several areas with differing types and amounts of visitor use, and (3) intensive monitoring at six sites to document temporal variations in water quality. Data from the synoptic water quality survey indicated that wilderness lakes and streams are dilute and have low nutrient and Escherichia coli concentrations. The synoptic survey sites were categorized as minimal use, backpacker-use, or mixed use (stock and backpackers), depending on the most prevalent type of use upstream from the sampling locations. Sites with mixed use tended to have higher concentrations of most constituents (including E. coli) than those categorized as minimal-use (P ≤ 0.05); concentrations at backpacker-use sites were intermediate. Data from paired-site sampling indicated that E. coli, total coliform, and particulate phosphorus concentrations were greater in streams downstream from mixed-use areas than upstream from those areas (P ≤ 0.05). Paired-site data also indicated few statistically significant differences in nutrient, E. coli, or total coliform concentrations in streams upstream and downstream from backpacker-use areas. The intensive-monitoring data indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations normally were low, except during storms, when notable increases in concentrations of E. coli, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and turbidity occurred. In summary, results from this study indicate that water quality in SEKI wilderness generally is good, except during storms; and visitor use appears to have a small, but statistically significant influence on stream water quality.     

重庆市应用湖库水水源热泵系统条件分析

通过对重庆市气候条件、湖库水水资源状况以及湖库水水温和水质分析,结果显示:重庆地区采用传统空气源热泵系统已不适宜,而采用水源热泵系统具有较高的节能优势。丰富的湖库水水资源量以及重庆市建筑沿湖库水而建特点,为在重庆市开展湖库水水源热泵系统创造便利条件;湖库水水温和水质基本能满足地表水水源热泵系统的水源要求;湖库水藻类易爆发,因此发展湖库水水源热泵主要解决的水质问题是藻类的堵塞问题。     

Landsat ETM+ Images in the Estimation of Seasonal Lake Water Quality in Boreal River Basins

We investigated the use of Landsat ETM+ images in the monitoring of turbidity, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and Secchi disk transparency (Z(SD)) in lakes of two river basins located in southern Finland. The ETM+ images were acquired in May, June, and September 2002 and were corrected for atmospheric disturbance using the simplified method of atmospheric correction (SMAC) model. The in situ measurements consisted of water sampling in the largest lake of the region, routine monitoring results for the whole study area, and Z(SD) observations made by volunteers. The ranges of the water quality variables in the dataset were as follows: turbidity, 0.6-25 FNU; absorption coefficient of CDOM at 400 nm, 1.0-12.2 m(-1); Z(SD), 0.5-5.5 m; and chlorophyll a concentration, 2.4-80 mug L(-1). The estimation accuracies of the image-specific empirical algorithms expressed as relative errors were 23.0% for turbidity, 17.4% for CDOM, and 21.1% for Z(SD). If concurrent in situ measurements had not been used for algorithm training, the average error would have been about 37%. The atmospheric correction improved the estimation accuracy only slightly compared with the use of top-of-atmospheric reflectances. The accuracy of the water quality estimates without concurrent in situ measurements could have been improved if in-image atmospheric parameters had been available. The underwater reflectance simulations of the ETM+ channel wavelengths using water quality typical for Finnish lakes (data from 1113 lakes) indicated that region-specific algorithms may be needed in other parts of the country, particularly in the case of Z(SD). Despite the limitations in the spectral and radiometric resolutions, ETM+ imagery can be an effective aid, particularly in the monitoring and management of small lakes (<1 km(2)), which are often not included in routine monitoring programs.     

A Gis‐Based Approach to Watershed Classification for Nebraska Reservoirs1

Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is charged with establishing standards and criteria for assessing lake water quality. It is, however, increasingly evident that a single set of national water quality standards that do not take into account regional hydrogeologic and ecological differences will not be viable as lakes clearly have different inherent capacities to meet such standards. We demonstrate a GIS‐based watershed classification strategy for identifying groups of Nebraska reservoirs that have similar potential capacity to attain a certain level of water quality standard. A preliminary cluster analysis of 78 reservoirs was performed to determine the potential number of Nebraska reservoir groups. Subsequently, a Classification Trees method was used to refine number of classes, describe the structure of reservoir watershed classes, and to develop a predictive model that relates watershed conditions to reservoir classes. Results suggest that Nebraska reservoirs can be represented by nine classes and that soil organic matter content in the watershed is the most important single variable for segregating the reservoirs. The cross‐validation prediction error rate of the Classification Tree model was 26.3%. Because all geospatial data used in this work are available nationally, the method could be adopted throughout the U.S. Hence, this GIS‐based watershed classification approach could provide water resources managers an effective decision‐support tool in managing reservoir water quality.