Geochemical and solute transport modelling for CO2 storage, what to expect from it?

Geochemistry plays an important role when assessing the impact of CO₂ storage. Due to the potential corrosive character of CO₂, it might affect the chemical and physical properties of the wells, the reservoir and its surroundings and increase the environmental and financial risk of CO₂ storage projects in deep geological structures. An overview of geochemical and solute transport modelling for CO₂ storage purposes is given, its data requirements and gaps are highlighted, and its progress over the last 10 years is discussed. Four different application domains are identified: long-term integrity modelling, injectivity modelling, well integrity modelling and experimental modelling and their current state of the art is discussed. One of the major gaps remaining is the lack of basic thermodynamical and kinetic data at relevant temperature and pressure conditions for each of these four application domains. Real challenges are the coupled solute transport and geomechanical modelling, the modelling of impurities in the CO₂ stream and pore-scale modelling applications.     

Estimation of the effect of the degree of sewage treatment on the status of pollution along the coastline of the Mediterranean Sea using broad scale modelling

A preliminary investigation was performed to estimate the effect of the degree of treatment in Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs) on the status of pollution along the coastlines of the Mediterranean Sea. Data from questionnaires and the literature were collected and processed (a) to identify 18 approximate 1D surface coastal currents, (b) to estimate their prevailing direction and average flow velocity and (c) to estimate the water pollution loads and identify their locations of discharge. Then, a simplified 1D water quality model was formulated and applied for the existing conditions and two hypothetical scenarios: (1) all coastal cities have STPs with secondary treatment and (2) all coastal cities have STPs with tertiary treatment to determine BOD(5), TN and TP concentrations in the 18 surface coastal currents. Calculated concentrations were compared and discussed. A main conclusion is that, to reduce pollution in the Mediterranean Sea measures should be adopted for upgrading the water quality of the rivers discharging into the Mediterranean Sea, along with the construction of STPs for all the coastal cities.     

Detection and visualization of storm hydrograph changes under urbanization: an impulse response approach

Urbanization often alters catchment storm responses, with a broad range of potentially significant environmental and engineering consequences. At a practical, site-specific management level, efficient and effective assessment and control of such downstream impacts requires a technical capability to rapidly identify development-induced storm hydrograph changes. The method should also speak specifically to alteration of internal watershed dynamics, require few resources to implement, and provide results that are intuitively accessible to all watershed stakeholders. In this short paper, we propose a potential method which might satisfy these criteria. Our emphasis lies upon the integration of existing concepts to provide tools for pragmatic, relatively low-cost environmental monitoring and management. The procedure involves calibration of rainfall-runoff time-series models in each of several successive time windows, which sample varying degrees of watershed urbanization. As implemented here, only precipitation and stream discharge or stage data are required. The readily generated unit impulse response functions of these time-series models might then provide a mathematically formal, yet visually based and intuitive, representation of changes in watershed storm response. Nominally, the empirical response functions capture such changes as soon as they occur, and the assessments of storm hydrograph alteration are independent of variability in meteorological forcing. We provide a preliminary example of how the technique may be applied using a low-order linear ARX model. The technique may offer a fresh perspective on such watershed management issues, and potentially also several advantages over existing approaches. Substantial further testing is required before attempting to apply the concept as a practical environmental management technique; some possible directions for additional work are suggested.     

A MODELLING METHOD FOR EVALUATING WATER QUALITY POLICIES IN NONSERIAL RIVER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a modelling method which simplifies the evaluation of water quality policies for nonserial (branching) river systems. The method introduces dummy facilities at the junctions of the major tributary branches with the mainstream as replacements for the facilities and activities on the tributaries. The cost functions for the dummy facilities and the DO and BOD concentrations at the junctions as determined for each tributary are introduced into the mainstream serial system model which is then solved for the optimal values of the mainstream treatment plant efficiencies, the dummy facility effeciencies, and the tributary system DO and BOD concentrations using nonlinear programming. Given the optimum values for the dummy facility efficiencies and the values for the tributary system DO and BOD concentrations, the optimum values for the tributary treatment plant efficiencies are found using nonlinear programming. The method is applied to a river system with a mainstream and one major tributary which contain industrial and municipal organic and thermal polluters and their associated wastewater treatment plants.     

Derivative mine valuation: strategic investment decisions in competitive markets

Successful management in competitive markets requires evaluation methods that respond to global market dynamics and provide investors with relevant information to make strategic investment decisions. These strategic decisions include decisions on investment timing, feasibility study and risk management and mine operating options. Conventional methods do not have the built-in capabilities to help investors handle these strategic issues. Advances in modern finance have had profound impacts on financial markets for options, futures and collaterized securities and offer appropriate tools in solving these problems. In this paper, the authors have extended the Brennan and Schwartz mineral resource model to develop the derivative mine valuation method based on the dynamic arbitrage theory. A copper mining venture has been evaluated using the derivative mine valuation and conventional methods. The results show that the derivative mine valuation method allows investors to maximize the venture's market value by exercising these strategic options.     

Differences in bioregional classifications among four aquatic biotic groups: Implications for conservation reserve design and monitoring programs

Bioregional classifications are used extensively for conservation management and monitoring programs. This study used generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) to test the ability of different regional classifications of four groups of aquatic biota to be used as surrogates for each other. Classifications were derived for aquatic macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, freshwater fish and frogs using community-level modelling, or GDM, which relates the biotic assemblage structure with environmental variables. Six regions were defined for each biotic group for the State of New South Wales. Regional classifications differed markedly between the different biotic groups because the environmental drivers that were related to species turnover throughout the region differed among groups. Altitude and rainfall were the strongest drivers of species turnover among the groups. Results suggest that physiographic variables should be incorporated in reserve design and monitoring programs to explicitly address differences in classifications between similar biotic groups.     

A spatial-statistical approach for modeling the effect of non-point source pollution on different water quality parameters in the Velhas river watershed--Brazil

In this article, a methodology for evaluating the effect of land use/land cover on the quality of nearby stream water in a semiarid environment is described and tested on a large watershed in Southeastern Brazil. The approach aims at identifying the width of the riparian area having the strongest effect on different water quality parameters. The land use/land cover data were generated from remotely sensed data while water quality point data were supplied by a government agency. Testing was conducted for both the rainy and dry seasons in an effort to understand the direct effect of surface runoff. The approach combines cartographic modelling using a geographical information system (GIS) and statistics to establish the strength of the relationship between water quality, land use and the distance from the stream. Results suggest a strong relationship between land use/land cover and turbidity, nitrogen and fecal coliforms. They also suggest that each of these parameters has a unique behavior when distance from the stream is considered. Finally, although it was expected that the models would apply better during the wet season, some parameters had the opposite behavior and displayed a better fit during the dry season.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of Nitrogen Losses from Dairy Farms

International attention has focused on agricultural production systems as non-point sources of pollution affecting the quality of streams, estuaries and ground water resources. The objective of the current study was to develop a model of nitrogen management on the dairy farm, and to perform sensitivity analyses in order to determine the relative importance of manipulating herd nutrition, manure management and crop selection in reducing nitrogen (N) losses from the farm. The importance of the method of N input to the farm (purchased feed, legume fixation, inorganic fertilizer, imported manure) was investigated, and the potential to reduce N losses from dairy farms was evaluated. Nitrogen balance equations were derived, and related efficiency coefficients were set to reference values representing common management practices. Total farm N efficiency (animal product N per N input), and N losses per product N were determined for different situations by solving the set of simultaneous equations. Improvements in animal diet and management that increase the conversion of feed N to animal product by 50% would increase total farm N efficiency by 48% and reduce N losses per product by 36 to 40%. In contrast, reducing losses from manure collection, storage and application to improve the percentage of manure N that becomes available in soil by 100% would only improve total farm N efficiency by 13% and reduce total N losses by 14%. Selecting crops and management that can use soil nutrients 50% more efficiently would improve total farm efficiency by up to 59% and reduce N losses by up to 41% depending on the predominant nitrogen sources to the farm. Legume production would reduce N losses per product compared with non-legumes. There was more than a five fold difference in N losses per animal product N between the most extreme scenarios suggesting considerable opportunity to reduce N losses from dairy farms.     

Methodological aspects of life cycle assessment of integrated solid waste management systems

Environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) developed rapidly during the 1990s and has reached a certain level of harmonisation and standardisation. LCA has mainly been developed for analysing material products, but can also be applied to services, e.g. treatment of a particular amount of solid waste. This paper discusses some methodological issues which come into focus when LCAs are applied to solid waste management systems. The following five issues are discussed. (1) Upstream and downstream system boundaries: where is the ‘cradle’ and where is the ‘grave’ in the analysed system? (2) Open-loop recycling allocation: besides taking care of a certain amount of solid waste, many treatment processes also provide additional functions, e.g. energy or materials which are recycled into other products. Two important questions which arise are if an allocation between the different functions should be made (and if so how), or if system boundaries should be expanded to include several functions. (3) Multi-input allocation: in waste treatment processes, different materials and products are usually mixed. In many applications there is a need to allocate environmental interventions from the treatment processes to the different input materials. The question is how this should be done. (4) Time: emissions from landfills will continue for a long time. An important issue to resolve is the length of time emissions from the landfill should be considered. (5) Life cycle impact assessment: are there any aspects of solid waste systems (e.g. the time horizon) that may require specific attention for the impact assessment element of an LCA? Although the discussion centres around LCA it is expected that many of these issues are also relevant for other types of systems analyses.     

Water management decision makers' evaluations of uncertainty in a decision support system: the case of WaterSim in the Decision Theater

Model-based decision support systems are increasingly used to link knowledge to action for environmental decision making. How stakeholders perceive uncertainty in models and visualisations affects their perceptions of credibility, relevance and usability of these tools. This paper presents a case study of water decision makers’ evaluations of WaterSim, a dynamic water simulation model presented in an immersive decision theatre environment. Results reveal that decision makers’ understandings of uncertainty in their evaluations of decision support systems reflect both scientific and political discourse. We conclude with recommendations for design and evaluation of decision support systems that incorporate decision makers' views.