Reducing Livestock Effects on Public Lands in the Western United States as the Climate Changes: A Reply to Svejcar et al

Svejcar et al. (Environ Manage, 2014) offered several perspectives regarding Beschta et al. (Environ Manage 51:474–491, 2013)—a publication that addressed the interacting ecological effects of climate change and domestic, wild, and feral ungulates on public lands in the western United States (US)—by largely focusing on three livestock grazing issues: (1) legacy versus current day impacts; (2) grazing as a fire reduction tool; and (3) the complexity of grazing. Regarding these issues, we indicate that (1) legacy effects to western ecosystems were indeed significant and contemporary livestock use on public lands generally maintains or exacerbates many of those effects; (2) livestock grazing has been a major factor affecting fire frequency, fire severity, and ecosystem trajectories in the western US for over a century; and (3) the removal or reduction of grazing impacts in these altered ecosystems is the most effective means of initiating ecological recovery. Svejcar et al. (Environ Manage, 2014) offer no evidence that livestock use is consistent with the timely recovery of grazing-degraded uplands, riparian areas, or stream systems. We thus conclude that public-land ecosystems can best persist or cope with a changing climate by significantly reducing ungulate grazing and related impacts.     

Western Land Managers will Need all Available Tools for Adapting to Climate Change,Including Grazing: A Critique of Beschta et al.

In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474–491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20–50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and availability of fish habitat; changed magnitude and seasonality of runoff regimes that alter nutrient loading and limit habitat availability at low flow; and loss of prairie pothole wetlands that reduces waterfowl populations. Many of the predicted changes in aquatic ecosystems are a consequence of climatic effects on terrestrial ecosystems; shifts in riparian vegetation and hydrology are particularly critical. We review models that could be used to explore potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems; these include models of instream flow, bioenergetics models, nutrient spiraling models, and models relating riverine food webs to hydrologic regime. We discuss potential ecological risks, benefits, and costs of climate change and identify information needs and model improvements that are required to improve our ability to predict and identify climate change impacts and to evaluate management options.     

CLIMATE CHANGE: POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND INTERACTIONS IN WETLANDS OF THE UNTTED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that this trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea‐level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuanne wetlands, peat lands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothole wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peat‐lands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea‐level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.     

Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Cumulative Disturbance Impacts Due to Military Training,Burning, Haying,and Their Interactions on Land Condition of Fort Riley

The effects of military training activities on the land condition of Army installations vary spatially and temporally. Training activities observably degrade land condition while also increasing biodiversity and stabilizing ecosystems. Moreover, other anthropogenic activities regularly occur on military lands such as prescribed burns and agricultural haying—adding to the dynamics of land condition. Thus, spatially and temporally assessing the impacts of military training, prescribed burning, agricultural haying, and their interactions is critical to the management of military lands. In this study, the spatial distributions and patterns of military training-induced disturbance frequency were derived using plot observation and point observation-based method, at Fort Riley, Kansas from 1989 to 2001. Moreover, spatial and variance analysis of cumulative impacts due to military training, burning, haying, and their interactions on the land condition of Fort Riley were conducted. The results showed that: (1) low disturbance intensity dominated the majority of the study area with exception of concentrated training within centralized areas; (2) high and low values of disturbance frequency were spatially clustered and had spatial patterns that differed significantly from a random distribution; and (3) interactions between prescribed burning and agricultural haying were not significant in terms of either soil erosion or disturbance intensity although their means and variances differed significantly between the burned and non-burned areas and between the hayed and non-hayed areas.     

The geography of conflict between elk and agricultural values in the Cypress Hills, Canada

Complex ecological issues like depredation and its management are determined by multiple factors acting at more than one scale and are interlinked with complex human social and economic behaviour. Depredation by wild herbivores can be a major obstacle to agricultural community support for wildlife conservation. For three decades, crop and fence damage, competition with livestock for native rangeland and tame pasture, and depredation of stored feed by elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) have been the cause of conflict with agricultural producers in the Cypress Hills, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Tolerance of elk presence on private lands is low because few benefits accrue to private landowners; rather they largely perceive elk as a public resource produced at their expense. Government management actions have focused on abatement inputs (e.g., population reduction; fencing) and compensation, but incentives to alter land use patterns (crop choice and location) in response to damages have not been considered. Nor has there been information on spatial structure of the elk population that would allow targeted management actions instead of attempting to manage the entire population. In this study we analysed the spatial structure of the Cypress Hills elk population, the distribution of the elk harvest in relation to agricultural conflicts, developed models of the spatial patterns of conflict fields, and evaluated compensation patterns for damage by wild herbivores. We propose modifications to current abatement and compensation programs and discuss alternative approaches involving changes to agricultural land use patterns that may reduce the intensity of conflicts with elk, and increase the acceptance capacity of landowners.     

Effects of Land Use Intensification on Fish Assemblages in Mediterranean Climate Streams

Southern Portugal is experiencing a rapid change in land use due to the spread of intensive farming systems, namely olive production systems, which can cause strong negative environmental impacts and affect the ecological integrity of aquatic ecosystems. This study aimed to identify the main environmental disturbances related with olive grove intensification on Mediterranean-climate streams in southern Portugal, and to evaluate their effects on fish assemblage structure and integrity. Twenty-six stream sites within the direct influence of traditional, intensive, and hyper-intensive olive groves were sampled. Human-induced disturbances were analyzed along the olive grove intensity gradient. The integrity of fish assemblages was evaluated by comparison with an independent set of least disturbed reference sites, considering metrics and guilds, based on multivariate analyses. Along the gradient of olive grove intensification, the study observed overall increases in human disturbance variables and physicochemical parameters, especially organic/nutrient enrichment, sediment load, and riparian degradation. Animal load measured the impact of livestock production. This variable showed an opposite pattern, since traditional olive groves are often combined with high livestock production and are used as grazing pasture by the cattle, unlike more intensive olive groves. Stream sites influenced by olive groves were dominated by non-native and tolerant fish species, while reference sites presented higher fish richness, density and were mainly occupied by native and intolerant species. Fish assemblage structure in olive grove sites was significantly different from the reference set, although significant differences between olive grove types were not observed. Bray–Curtis similarities between olive grove sites and references showed a decreasing trend in fish assemblage integrity along the olive grove intensification gradient. Olive production, even in traditional groves, led to multiple in-stream disturbances, whose cumulative effects promoted the loss of biota integrity. The impacts of low intensity traditional olive groves on aquatic ecosystems can be much greater when they are coupled with livestock production. This paper recommends best practices to reduce negative impacts of olive production on streams, contributing to guide policy decision-makers in agricultural and water management.     

Landscape-Scale Factors Affecting Feral Horse Habitat Use During Summer Within The Rocky Mountain Foothills

Public lands occupied by feral horses in North America are frequently managed for multiple uses with land use conflict occurring among feral horses, livestock, wildlife, and native grassland conservation. The factors affecting habitat use by horses is critical to understand where conflict may be greatest. We related horse presence and abundance to landscape attributes in a GIS to examine habitat preferences using 98 field plots sampled within a portion of the Rocky Mountain Forest Reserve of SW Alberta, Canada. Horse abundance was greatest in grassland and cut block habitats, and lowest in conifer and mixedwood forest. Resource selection probability functions and count models of faecal abundance indicated that horses preferred areas closer to water, with reduced topographic ruggedness, situated farther from forests, and located farther away from primary roads and trails frequented by recreationalists, but closer to small linear features (i.e. cut lines) that may be used as beneficial travel corridors. Horse presence and abundance were closely related to cattle presence during summer, suggesting that both herbivores utilise the same habitats. Estimates of forage biomass removal (44 %) by mid-July were near maximum acceptable levels. In contrast to horse-cattle associations, horses were negatively associated with wild ungulate abundance, although the mechanism behind this remains unclear and warrants further investigation. Our results indicate that feral horses in SW Alberta exhibit complex habitat selection patterns during spring and summer, including overlap in use with livestock. This finding highlights the need to assess and manage herbivore populations consistent with rangeland carrying capacity and the maintenance of range health.     

Modeling the relationship between land use and surface water quality

It is widely known that watershed hydrology is dependent on many factors, including land use, climate, and soil conditions. But the relative impacts of different types of land use on the surface water are yet to be ascertained and quantified. This research attempted to use a comprehensive approach to examine the hydrologic effects of land use at both a regional and a local scale. Statistical and spatial analyses were employed to examine the statistical and spatial relationships of land use and the flow and water quality in receiving waters on a regional scale in the State of Ohio. Besides, a widely accepted watershed-based water quality assessment tool, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS), was adopted to model the plausible effects of land use on water quality in a local watershed in the East Fork Little Miami River Basin. The results from the statistical analyses revealed that there was a significant relationship between land use and in-stream water quality, especially for nitrogen, phosphorus and Fecal coliform. The geographic information systems (GIS) spatial analyses identified the watersheds that have high levels of contaminants and percentages of agricultural and urban lands. Furthermore, the hydrologic and water quality modeling showed that agricultural and impervious urban lands produced a much higher level of nitrogen and phosphorus than other land surfaces. From this research, it seems that the approach adopted in this study is comprehensive, covering both the regional and local scales. It also reveals that BASINS is a very useful and reliable tool, capable of characterizing the flow and water quality conditions for the study area under different watershed scales. With little modification, these models should be able to adapt to other watersheds or to simulate other contaminants. They also can be used to study the plausible impacts of global environmental change. In addition, the information on the hydrologic effects of land use is very useful. It can provide guidelines not only for resource managers in restoring our aquatic ecosystems, but also for local planners in devising viable and ecologically-sound watershed development plans, as well as for policy makers in evaluating alternate land management decisions.     

Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.     

Managing United States Public Lands in Response to Climate Change: A View From the Ground Up

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.     

Case studies in co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation

Attempts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or manage the effects of climate change traditionally focus on management or policy options that promote single outcomes (e.g., either benefiting ecosystems or human health and well-being). In contrast, co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation address climate change impacts on human and ecological health in tandem and on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The article engages the concept of co-benefits through four case studies. The case studies emphasize co-benefits approaches that are accessible and tractable in countries with human populations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. They illustrate the potential of co-benefits approaches and provide a platform for further discussion of several interdependent principles relevant to the implementation of co-benefits strategies. These principles include providing incentives across multiple scales and time frames, promoting long-term integrated impact assessment, and fostering multidimensional communication networks.     

Using Social Media to Discover Public Values, Interests, and Perceptions about Cattle Grazing on Park Lands

In the western United States, livestock grazing often co-exists with recreation, cultural resource management and biodiversity protection on federal and state protected rangelands as well as on many local government open space areas. While the value of livestock grazing for managing rangeland vegetation to reduce fire fuel loads and improve wildlife habitat is increasingly recognized by resource management professionals, public concerns, and conflict between recreationist and livestock have led to reductions in public land grazing. Traditional public input methods yield a constrained picture of people’s attitudes toward cows and public land grazing. Public meetings, hearings, and surveys, the most commonly used mechanisms for public land managers to solicit public opinion, tend to foster participation of organized special interests or, in the case of surveys, focus on a specific topic. General public input is limited. This study explored the use of personal photography in social media to gain insight into public perceptions of livestock grazing in public spaces. Key findings of this study include that many recreationist in grazed San Francisco Bay Area parks shared views, interests, and concerns about cows and grazing on the photo-sharing website, Flickr^TM that seldom show up at a public meeting or in surveys. Results suggest that social media analysis can help develop a more nuanced understanding of public viewpoints useful in making decisions and creating outreach and education programs for public grazing lands. This study demonstrates that using such media can be useful in gaining an understanding of public concerns about natural resource management.     

Riparian livestock exclosure research in the western United States: a critique and some recommendations

Over the last three decades, livestock exclosure research has emerged as a preferred method to evaluate the ecology of riparian ecosystems and their susceptibility to livestock impacts. This research has addressed the effects of livestock exclusion on many characteristics of riparian ecosystems, including vegetation, aquatic and terrestrial animals, and geomorphology. This paper reviews, critiques, and provides recommendations for the improvement of riparian livestock exclosure research. Exclosure-based research has left considerable scientific uncertainty due to popularization of relatively few studies, weak study designs, a poor understanding of the scales and mechanisms of ecosystem recovery, and selective, agenda-laden literature reviews advocating for or against public lands livestock grazing. Exclosures are often too small (<50 ha) and improperly placed to accurately measure the responses of aquatic organisms or geomorphic processes to livestock removal. Depending upon the site conditions when and where livestock exclosures are established, postexclusion dynamics may vary considerably. Systems can recover quickly and predictably with livestock removal (the “rubber band” model), fail to recover due to changes in system structure or function (the “Humpty Dumpty” model), or recover slowly and remain more sensitive to livestock impacts than they were before grazing was initiated (the “broken leg” model). Several initial ideas for strengthening the scientific basis for livestock exclosure research are presented: (1) incorporation of meta-analyses and critical reviews. (2) use of restoration ecology as a unifying conceptual framework; (3) development of long-term research programs; (4) improved exclosure placement/design; and (5) a stronger commitment to collection of pretreatment data.     

Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya

Water resources and land use are closely linked with each other and with regional climate, assembling a very complex system. The understanding of the interconnecting relations involved in this system is an essential step for elaborating public policies that can effectively lead to the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled in order to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation datasets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that throughout the next 20 years the low availability of arable lands in the hills will drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher IWR in the foothills. If current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. This expansion will increase by approximately 40% the annual water volume necessary for irrigation. Climate change may slightly decrease crops' IWR in April and November by 2030, while in May a small increase will likely be observed. The integrated assessment of these environmental changes allowed a clear identification of priority regions for land use allocation policies and water resources management.     

Ecological restoration as a strategy for conserving biological diversity

Though the restoration of disturbed ecosystems has so far played a relatively modest role in the effort to conserve biological diversity, there are reasons to suspect that its role will increase and that its contribution to the maintenance of diversity will ultimately prove crucial as techniques are further refined and as pristine areas for preservation become scarcer and more expensive.It is now possible to restore a number of North American communities with some confidence. However, it should be noted that many current efforts to return degraded lands to productive use, like attempts to reclaim land disturbed by mining, try only for rehabilitation to a socially acceptable condition and fall considerably short of actually restoring a native ecological community.Possible uses for restoration in the conservation of biodiversity include not only the creation of habitat on derelict sites, but also techniques for enlarging and redesigning existing reserves. Restoration may even make it possible to move reserves entirely in response to long-term events, such as changes in climate. Restoration in the form of reintroduction of single species to preexisting or restored habitat is also a critical link in programs to conserve species ex situ in the expectation of eventually returning them to the wild. And restoration provides opportunities to increase diversity through activities as diverse as management of utility corridors, transportation rights-of-way, and parks.     

Ecological impacts of arable intensification in Europe

Although arable landscapes have a long history, environmental problems have accelerated in recent decades. The effects of these changes are usually externalized, being greater for society as a whole than for the farms on which they operate, and incentives to correct them are therefore largely lacking. Arable landscapes are valued by society beyond the farming community, but increased mechanization and farm size, simplification of crop rotations, and loss of non-crop features, have led to a reduction in landscape diversity. Low intensity arable systems have evolved a characteristic and diverse fauna and flora, but development of high input, simplified arable systems has been associated with a decline in biodiversity. Arable intensification has resulted in loss of non-crop habitats and simplification of plant and animal communities within crops, with consequent disruption to food chains and declines in many farmland species. Abandonment of arable management has also led to the replacement of such wildlife with more common and widespread species. Soils have deteriorated as a result of erosion, compaction, loss of organic matter and contamination with pesticides, and in some areas, heavy metals. Impacts on water are closely related to those on soils as nutrient and pesticide pollution of water results from surface runoff and subsurface flow, often associated with soil particles, which themselves have economic and ecological impacts. Nitrates and some pesticides also enter groundwater following leaching from arable land. Greatest impacts are associated with simplified, high input arable systems. Intensification of arable farming has been associated with pollution of air by pesticides, NO2 and CO2, while the loss of soil organic matter has reduced the system's capacity for carbon sequestration. International trade contributes to global climate change through long distance transport of arable inputs and products. The EU Rural Development Regulation (1257/99) provides an opportunity to implement measures for alleviating ecological impacts of arable management through a combination of cross-compliance and agri-environment schemes. To alleviate the problems described in this paper, such measures should take account of opportunities for public/private partnerships and should integrate social, cultural, economic and ecological objectives for multifunctional land use.     

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.