Modeling the Driving Forces of the Land Use and Land Cover Changes Along the Upper Yangtze River of China

Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and historic resource exploitation, China’s upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land use and cover, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This article examines the causes of land use and land cover change (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming to better understand the human impact on the dynamic LUCC process and to support necessary policy actions for more sustainable land use and environmental protection. Using a repeated cross-sectional dataset covering 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000, we develop a fractional logit model to empirically determine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for cropland, forestland, and grassland. It is shown that population expansion, food self-sufficiency, and better market access drove cropland expansion, while industrial development contributed significantly to the increase of forestland and the decrease of other land uses. Similarly, stable tenure had a positive effect on forest protection. Moreover, past land use decisions were less significantly influenced by distorted market signals. We believe that these and other findings carry important policy implications.     

A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning

Multi-agent Systems (MAS) offer a conceptual approach to include multi-actor decision making into models of land use change. The main goal is to explore the use of MAS to simulate spatial scenarios based on modelling multi-actor decision-making within a spatial planning process. We demonstrate MAS that consists of agents representing organizations and interest groups involved in an urban allocation problem during a land use planning process. The multi-actor based decision-making is modelled by generating beliefs and preferences of actors about the location of and relation between spatial objects. This allows each agent to confront these beliefs and preferences with it's own desires and with that of other agents. The MAS loosely resembles belief, desire and intentions architecture. Based on a case study for a hypothetical land use planning situation in a study area in the Netherlands we discuss the potential and limitations of the MAS to build models that enable spatial planners to include the 'actor factor' in their analysis and design of spatial scenarios. In addition, our experiments revealed the need for further research on the representation of spatial objects and reasoning, learning and communication about allocation problems using MAS.     

Coupling a settlement growth model with an agro-economic land allocation model for securing ecosystem services provision

Mountain landscapes are undergoing rapid land-use changes. Settlement expansion, the intensification of agricultural land-use practices, and farmland abandonment result in a decline of natural and semi-natural habitats and the related ecosystem services (ES). In this context, spatial planning has emerged as a key instrument for the management of ES provision. To better understand trade-offs and interactions between settlement growth and ES provision in a spatially explicit manner, we present a new modeling framework coupling an agent-based, agro-economic optimization model and a cellular-automata-based settlement growth model. The framework is applied in an inner alpine valley in the Valais, Switzerland, which experienced rapid settlement growth in recent years. Results demonstrate how the model framework allows support of local planning processes. Particularly cooperation among municipalities and an explicit consideration of ES can inform spatially explicit ES trade-off decisions under increasing demand for land. We conclude that better informed spatial planning processes support ES provision.     

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis and Prediction in the Upper Reaches of the Minjiang River,China

Scientists have aimed at exploring land use and land cover change (LUCC) and modeling future landscape pattern in order to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of these phenomena. This study addresses LUCC in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, China, from 1974 to 2000. Based on remotely sensed images, LUCC and landscape pattern change were assessed using cross-tabulation and landscape metrics. Then, using the CLUE-S model, changes in area of four types of land cover were predicted for two scenarios considering forest polices over the next 20 years. Results showed that forestland decreased from 1974 to 2000 due to continuous deforestation, while grassland and shrubland increased correspondingly. At the same time, the farmland and settlement land increased dramatically. Landscape fragmentation in the study area accompanied these changes. Forestland, grassland, and farmland take opposite trajectories in the two scenarios, as does landscape fragmentation. LUCC has led to ecological consequences, such as biodiversity loss and lowering of ecological carrying capacity.     

Design for environment: A new framework for strategic decisions

For most of its history of environmental protection, U.S. policy has concentrated on a pollution control strategy based on single medium emissions: air, water, or land. Efforts to mitigate environmental impacts to one medium often resulted in greater impacts to others. While much environmental improvement has occurred via this system over the last quarter-century, it is generally recognized that alternative strategies which address environmental impacts across all media in an integrated manner will be necessary for continued improvement. Increasingly, regulatory strategies that result in only passive compliance will be insufficient to meet these demands. This article demonstrates why new strategies which encourage proactive behavior are necessary. A new framework for making strategic decisions—design for environment—concerning the relation between our actions and environment is necessary to ensure a sustainable future.     

Managing United States Public Lands in Response to Climate Change: A View From the Ground Up

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.     

Effects of Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in China During 1900‐20001

Abstract: China has experienced a rapid land‐use/cover change (LUCC) during the 20th Century, and this process is expected to continue in the future. How LUCC has affected water resources across China, however, remains uncertain due to the complexity of LUCC‐water interactions. In this study, we used an integrated Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in conjunction with spatial data of LUCC to estimate the LUCC effects on the magnitude, spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and water yield across China. Through comparisons of DLEM results with other model simulations, field observations, and river discharge data, we found that DLEM model can adequately catch the spatial and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes. Our simulation results demonstrate that LUCC led to substantial changes in ET, runoff, and water yield in most of the China’s river basins during the 20th Century. The temporal and spatial patterns varied significantly across China. The largest change occurred during the second half century when almost all of the river basins had a decreasing trend in ET and an increasing trend in water yield and runoff, in contrast to the inclinations of ET and declinations of water yield in major river basins, such as Pearl river basin, Yangtze river basin, and Yellow river basin during the first half century. The increased water yield and runoff indicated alleviated water deficiency in China in the late 20th Century, but the increased peak flow might make the runoff difficult to be held by reservoirs. The continuously increasing ET and decreasing water yield in Continental river basin, Southwest river basin, and Songhua and Liaohe river basin implied regional water deficiency. Our study in China indicates that deforestation averagely increased ET by 138 mm/year but decreased water yield by the same amount and that reforestation averagely decreased ET by 422 mm/year since most of deforested land was converted to paddy land or irrigated cropland. In China, cropland‐related land transformation is the dominant anthropogenic force affecting water resources during the 20th Century. On national average, cropland expansion was estimated to increase ET by 182 mm/year while cropland abandonment decreased ET by 379 mm/year. Our simulation results indicate that urban sprawl generally decreased ET and increased water yield. Cropland managements (fertilization and irrigation) significantly increased ET by 98 mm/year. To better understand LUCC effects on China’s water resources, it is needed to take into account the interactions of LUCC with other environmental changes such as climate and atmospheric composition.     

Estimating annual generation rates of total P and total N for different land uses in Tasmania, Australia

Water quality issues have become increasingly important to Australian catchment stakeholders. As extensive nutrient sampling and modelling expertise are often absent or unattainable, simple unit-area models like Catchment Management Support System (CMSS) remain an attractive option for informing water quality management decisions. The selection of nutrient generation rates for use in CMSS is often an arbitrary assignment based on limited literature sources or expert opinion. Using a Bayesian model to estimate nutrient generation rates for the region of Tasmania, Australia, improved the rigor of CMSS modelling and in the process highlighted that dairy pastures were the most significant contributor of total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads to Tasmanian rivers.     

LUCC模型研究综述

介绍了土地利用／覆被变化（IIn0C）模型，分析了LUCC模型构成，并根据各模型功能差异将当前广泛使用的模型分为模拟模型和评价模型。对模拟模型的建立思路和评价模型的具体公式进行了较系统的分析，认为模拟模型能够对LUCC分布及变化进行模拟和演示，而评价模型能够反映出LUCC分布和变化的具体量化指标，两类模型各有优缺点。最后指出了目前LUCC模型存在的问题，并对以后的发展方向进行了展望。     

The Route to Best Science in Implementation of the Endangered Species Act’s Consultation Mandate: The Benefits of Structured Effects Analysis

The Endangered Species Act is intended to conserve at-risk species and the ecosystems upon which they depend, and it is premised on the notion that if the wildlife agencies that are charged with implementing the statute use the best available scientific information, they can successfully carry out this intention. We assess effects analysis as a tool for using best science to guide agency decisions under the Act. After introducing effects analysis, we propose a framework that facilitates identification and use of the best available information in the development of agency determinations. The framework includes three essential steps—the collection of reliable scientific information, the critical assessment and synthesis of available data and analyses derived from those data, and the analysis of the effects of actions on listed species and their habitats. We warn of likely obstacles to rigorous, structured effect analyses and describe the extent to which independent scientific review may assist in overcoming these obstacles. We conclude by describing eight essential elements that are required for a successful effects analysis.     

A Framework for Understanding and Improving Environmental Decision Making

This paper presents a framework for understanding and improving public sector environmental decision making. Within the framework, four interrelated components are discussed: (1) the environmental and cultural context-understanding this context includes understanding what people consider to be environmental problems, the goals and values that they bring to environmental problems and decision processes, specialized and common knowledge about environmental problems, and the institutional settings within which problems are addressed; (2) planning and appraisal activitiesthese activities include forecasting and monitoring exercises, evaluations of past decisions, and decisions that processes ought to be launched to solve specific environmental problems; (3) decision-making modes-these include six typical ways of conducting an environmental problem-solving process, modes which, in the framework, are called emergency action, routine procedures, analysis-centred, elite corps, conflict management and collaborative learning; (4) decision actions-these include five generic steps that are undertaken, formally or intuitively, in virtually any decision-making situation: issue familiarization; criteria setting; option construction; option assessment; and reaching a decision. In the course of describing the framework, we show a decision-making process can be adapted to incorporate sustainability concerns, including fostering sustainable environmental and social systems, meeting obligations to future generations, and searching for robust and reasonable (rather than rigidly optimal) decisions. The framework also helps to illuminate intriguing questions regarding institutional responsibility, decision process complexity and paradigms for environmental decision making.     

Understanding land cover change in a Special Protection Area in Central Spain through the enhanced land cover transition matrix and a related new approach

This work analyses land cover changes occurring between 1990 and 2000 within a Natural Protected Area, southwest of Madrid (Spain). We develop a new methodology that considers the net change in different land cover categories in each municipality of the study area. Our methodology, which uses Factorial Correspondence Analysis, allows identification of the most important changes at the municipality level and groups the municipalities where land use dynamics are similar. This method is a powerful tool for synthesis and can potentially be applied to non-spatial geographical data sources (e.g. agrarian census statistics). Our results show that the land cover around SW Madrid is highly dynamic. The shrub vegetation, arable land, heterogeneous agricultural and human-created area categories show the highest total change. The dynamics of the changes detected are dominated by decreases in the area of different types of crops and increases in forest areas. These changes may have indirect effects on the conservation of natural resources and wildlife if not managed appropriately.     

Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species

Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.     

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.     

Modelling land use change and environmental impact

Land use change models are tools for understanding and explaining the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Recently, new models, combining knowledge and tools from biophysical and socio-economic sciences, have become available. This has resulted in spatially explicit models focussed on patterns of change as well as agent-based models focused on the underlying decision processes. These developments improve the use of land use change models in environmental impact studies. This special issue documents these developments: (i) analysing the system properties in a biophysical and socio-economic context at multiple scales; (ii) integrating spatially explicit land use change models in integrated assessment models; (iii) visualising and quantifying the potential effects of land use change in trade-off curves, to support land users and policy makers in their decisions; and (iv) modelling of the actual decision making process with agent-based modelling. A new promising future development is the incorporation of dynamic feedbacks between changing land use and changing environmental conditions and vice versa. Unfortunately such dynamic feedbacks between the socio-economic and biophysical model components are still not or only partially operational in current models and are therefore the most important challenge for land use and environmental modellers.     

An Exploration of Dynamical Systems Modelling as a Decision Tool for Environmental Policy

A weakness often found in conventional environmental management tools is that of treating the dynamics of environmental effects and the underlying dynamics of structural change as external factors, precluding their ability to capture the evolutionary behaviour which characterizes economic systems. This article suggests a spatial dynamic modelling framework which addresses explicitly complex sectorial linkages and their environmental effects. The economic dynamics of the model are given spatial reference by means of a set of sector-based suitabilities, which allows us to explore both local environmental degradation effects as they unfold, and how these impacts then affect the economic productivity of the system as a whole. The approach is illustrated by calibrating the model with 1971-1981 data for the island of Crete, and then running it to explore how the economic dynamics of the island might evolve to the year 2001. This article presents a means through which to endogenize the environment and its explicit linkages with sectorial economic dynamics which can be of considerable use to environmental management in all its dimensions.     

洞庭湖土地利用／覆被变化及洪涝灾害研究进展

洞庭湖是长江流域重要的调蓄滞洪区、物种基因库和商品粮基地，具有重要的战略地位。然而由于人类不合理的开发利用致使湖泊功能和效益不断下降。系统认识洞庭湖自然、社会经济属性，揭示其内在的演变规律，有助于洞庭湖区资源的合理配置、环境保护和经济的可持续发展。本文从土地利用／覆被变化、洪涝灾害等方面，综述了洞庭湖的研究进展。研究结果表明目前对洞庭湖研究的深度和广度均不够，洞庭湖作为通江湖泊的复杂性和不确定性、研究思路方法创新意识不够、基础数据难以获得、洞庭湖区血吸虫病害严重等是洞庭湖研究难以深入的主要原因。最后从洞庭湖流域土地利用／覆被变化及其水文效应与调控研究、洞庭湖区洪灾风险评价与区划研究两个方面展望了今后研究的重点。     

Land degradation a matter of attitude? A case study from southern Transylvania (Romania)

A better public perception and knowledge on land degradation increases the individual and collective responsibility in land use and land management. Based on interviews, this paper presents results of evaluation of public perception and attitude towards degrading phenomena in the central part of Romania, an area prone to geomorphologic processes, with different land uses and a high proportion of degraded land. The research reveals natural causes, improper land use, categories of land owned, socio-economic causes and involvement of institutions as key aspects of public perception. Our research could be useful in the identification and design of measures in regional planning to attract population in prevention, mitigation and rehabilitation actions on degraded land.     

River environmental decision support system development for Suzhou Creek in Shanghai

The Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Project (SCRP) is one of the largest water-related environmental rehabilitation schemes ever undertaken in the vicinity of Shanghai, China. This paper details the development and application of a River Environmental Decision Support System (REDSS) for scientific planning and decision-making on the Suzhou Creek project, and illustrates the flexibility of the REDSS framework. We developed the following components: (1) a GIS-based analysis employing Component technology; (2) a "data mart" for multi-dimensional, multi-level, integrated, dynamic, and flexible data querying; and (3) a set of hydrodynamic and water quality models which can simulate complex tidal river networks. In addition, we detail how a water quality assessment model is embedded into the REDSS by employing an Identification Index Method. With the REDSS, all GIS and non-GIS components are integrated seamlessly and data from different sources can be queried simultaneously. This allows for various scenarios to be simulated and analyzed in advance to predict and assess the effects of proposed engineering and management measures. Generated information can thus support effective decisions. All operations of the REDSS can be implemented conveniently through user-friendly interfaces. The function of the REDSS framework is demonstrated through an application to Suzhou Creek. Because the REDSS characteristics are quite general, it may be applied in different geographic regions.