Forecasting iron ore import and consumption of China using grey model optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm

The iron and steel industry plays a fundamental role in a country's national economy, especially in developing countries. China is the largest iron ore consumption market in the world. However, because of limited domestic iron ore resources, a large proportion of iron ore is imported from other countries. Faced with the conflict between the iron ore supply shortage and the growing demand, it is necessary for the government to predict imports and total consumption. This paper develops a high-precision hybrid model based on grey prediction and rolling mechanism optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm. We use the China Statistical Yearbook (1996–2011) as our database to test the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. According to the experimental results, the proposed new method clearly can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model. Future projections have also been done for iron ore imports and total consumption in China in the next five years.     

Challenges to liberalism: The case of Australian energy policy

This paper considers liberal and nationalist economic policy approaches to the ownership and development of Australian energy resources (oil, gas, coal and uranium). In the two decades prior to 1983, Australia pursued economic policies in relation to its energy resources which could broadly be described as ‘nationalist’. Governments of the day intervened in development decisions in an effort to enhance the ‘national interest’. From 1983, along with the deregulation of the Australian economy as a whole, policy relating to energy resources was liberalised. Development of energy reserves henceforth occurred according to the dictates of the market. This paper argues that recent Australian energy policy initiatives reflect an increase in nationalist influences and a retreat from the liberalisation agenda that dominated energy policy making in the 1980s and 1990s. Three examples are discussed where policy has been influenced by a nationalist framework: (1) the domestic gas reservation policy in Western Australia; (2) Australian government efforts to promote a ‘value adding’ nuclear processing industry and (3) Australian Labor Party policy giving preferential financial incentives for gas to liquids projects. The re-emergence of nationalism in Australia is occurring either because policy makers now favour it as a path to energy security or in some cases because they believe that appeals to nationalism will generate political support.     

Chinese resource security policies and the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market

This paper reviews the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market in the wake of the rise of the Chinese steel industry. Prior to the 2000s, this market was characterised by two key features—high firm-level concentration on both the producer and consumer sides, and price determination through annually negotiated benchmark pricing between Australian mining and Japanese steel firms. However, owing to rapid growth in the Chinese steel industry and its emergence as the region's principal iron ore consumer, the Asia-Pacific iron ore market has been dramatically restructured during the last decade. This process has been accelerated since 2005 by Chinese governmental resource security policies, which have sought to address current record high iron ore prices through the use of foreign investment to sponsor new market entrants and the formation of an import cartel amongst the Chinese steel firms. This paper evaluates how these policies have driven restructuring in the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, through an analysis of the growth of China's steel industry, Chinese resource security policies aimed at lowering iron ore import costs, and their effects upon the regional market's ownership structure and price determination mechanisms. It argues that while Chinese investment and cartelisation policies have catalysed significant changes to the ownership and pricing structures of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, they have carried only mixed benefits for the Chinese steel industry's resource security.     

Surface iron ore mining in eastern India and local level sustainability

Mining often brings certain irreversible changes to the surrounding environment. Different types of natural resources mostly surround the mines. Degradation of natural resources around the active mining zone may adversely affect the local economy. After cessation of mining operations local people may no longer be able to sustain their livelihood from the surrounding degraded natural resource; there are chances that the economy of the region will be shattered. The paper deals with this problem of local level sustainability of iron ore mining in eastern India. This problem is examined in the light of different theories of sustainability and national policies. By using household survey data, sustainability of iron ore mining in this region is tested. Substitution of depleting natural capital with other forms of capital can promote long-term sustainability of the local economy. This necessitates certain policy interventions to induce the mine operators to reinvest some part of their resource rent in the natural capital of the region.     

Seaborne iron ore trade in the 1990s

This paper discusses how world steel production and seaborne iron ore trade have grown since 1950. The role of steel production forecasts in determining investment in the iron ore industry is examined. Forecasts for world steel production and the demand and supply of seaborne iron ore in the 1990s are presented. It is predicted that world steel production will increase by 64 million tons between 1991 and 2000. This increase will be located principally in the developing countries and China. The corresponding increase in seaborne iron ore trade will be approximately 55 million tons. Expansion projects will be located mainly in Australia and Brazil, but no greenfield iron ore projects will be undertaken. By the end of the decade, the demand for seaborne iron ore will be equal to its supply.     

The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints

At first ‘sustainable mining’ could be perceived as a paradox—minerals are widely held to be finite resources with rising consumption causing pressure on known resources. The true sustainability of mineral resources, however, is a much more complex picture and involves exploration, technology, economics, social and environmental issues, and advancing scientific knowledge—predicting future sustainability is therefore not a simple task. This paper presents the results from a landmark study on historical trends in Australian mining, including ore milled, ore grades, open cut versus underground mining, overburden/waste rock and economic resources. When complete data sets are compiled for specific metals, particular issues stand out with respect to sustainability—technological breakthroughs (e.g. flotation, carbon-in-pulp), new discoveries (e.g. uranium or U), price changes (e.g. Au, boom/bust cycles), social issues (e.g. strikes), etc. All of these issues are of prime importance in moving towards a semi-quantitative sustainability model of mineral resources and the mining industry. For the future, critical issues will continue to be declining ore grades (also ore quality and impurities), increased waste rock and associated liabilities, known economic resources, potential breakthrough technologies, and broader environmental constraints (e.g. carbon costs, water). For this latter area, many companies now report annually on sustainability performance—facilitating analysis of environmental sustainability with respect to production performance. By linking these two commonly disparate aspects—mining production and environmental/sustainability data—it becomes possible to better understand environmental sustainability and predict future constraints such as water requirements, greenhouse emissions, energy and reagent inputs, and the like. This paper will therefore present a range of fundamental data and issues which help towards quantifying the resource and environmental sustainability of mining—with critical implications for the mining industry and society as a whole.     

钢铁工业发展循环经济的基本途径探讨

分析了钢铁工业循环经济的基本特征，着重探讨了钢铁工业发展循环经济的基本途径，其中包括：最大限度地降低自然资源消耗，采用成熟技术提高二次能源利用效率，降低能耗，节约水资源，把固体废物资源化利用，尽可能减少污染物的发生量，努力发展工程科技，开发钢铁工业和其它行业的绿色新流程。     

Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price

The paper studies and applies the approaches to forecast long-term (LT) real prices of iron ore. This price is crucial for valuation of investments in Greenfield iron ore projects on the horizon of more than 5 years. The forecast is obtained by three different approaches which are usually used by investment bank analysts: marginal costs approach and 2 approaches based on calculation of incentive price. The paper concludes that there has been a structural shift on the iron ore market and LT iron ore prices will be higher by 20–30% than the average of industry forecasters suggest. This is related to the 2 key factors which were taken into account in this study—depletion of existing iron ore deposits and targeted return on investments for new projects. In addition, escalated industry costs inflation is claimed to be the factor which will bolster nominal iron ore prices at high levels in the long-term. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, confidence interval for future iron ore price was estimated.     

The role of the Australian minerals industry in world mineral supplies

Australia is one of the world's main producers and exporters of both fuel and non-fuel minerals. Among the main commodities produced for export are bauxite/alumina, iron ore, and nickel—Australia is also an increasingly important source of supply of black coal, especially for Japan, and is a significant producer and exporter of a number of base metals. Resources are adequate to support a substantial expansion of both non-oil fuels and other minerals. The potential for growth, both in terms of specific commodities and in the overall role of Australia in the world mineral industry, will depend to a very large extent on the cost competitiveness of Australian mining and on continuing inflow of capital.     

The ‘new’ economics of iron and steel

The author commences his analysis of the iron and steel industry by examining the historical background of the industry, and discusses its importance for the world economy. He examines the implications for the world industry of the successful development of the steel industry in Japan, and traces the evolution of a commodity cartel in the iron ore market, analysing the price levels of the commodity in the ‘free’ and ‘controlled’ markets. Following a discussion of the role of energy and coking coal supplies in the industry, the author examines the evolution of this industry in the less developed countries, with particular reference to the role of technology in the industry's development. He concludes that there have been important structural changes in the world industry, embraced by the concept of ‘partial demise’.