Heuristics and biases in cyber security dilemmas

Cyber security often depends on decisions made by human operators, who are commonly considered a major cause of security failures. We conducted 2 behavioral experiments to explore whether and how cyber security decision-making responses depend on gain–loss framing and salience of a primed recall prior experience. In Experiment I, we employed a 2 × 2 factorial design, manipulating the frame (gain vs. loss) and the presence versus absence of a prior near-miss experience. Results suggest that the experience of a near-miss significantly increased respondents’ endorsement of safer response options under a gain frame. Overall, female respondents were more likely to select a risk averse (safe) response compared with males. Experiment II followed the same general paradigm, framing all consequences in a loss frame and manipulating recall to include one of three possible prior experiences: false alarm, near-miss, or a hit involving a loss of data. Results indicate that the manipulated prior hit experience significantly increased the likelihood of respondents’ endorsement of a safer response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss experience. Conversely, the manipulated prior false-alarm experience significantly decreased respondents’ likelihood of endorsing a safer response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss experience. These results also showed a main effect for age and were moderated by respondent’s income level.     

Information source and valence: How information credibility influences earthquake risk perception

The present research aims at the relationship between information credibility and perception of seismic risk in a group of people living in severe disaster areas. 243 adult residents exposed to seismic hazard participated in a questionnaire study. With respect to four types of information which are generated by information sources and valence, participants were instructed to recall one type of the information they obtained respectively and rate the recalled information in terms of its credibility. After that, they were asked to report their seismic risk perception and all socio-demographic data were also collected. Regression analyses suggested that information credibility significantly influenced risk perception. Furthermore, the credibility of word-of-mouth and negative information were positively associated with risk perception. Meanwhile, risk perception was also affected greatly by the credibility of negative public information but not positive word-of-mouth information. It was clear that both information source and valence moderated the process and the latter exerted a stronger influence on it. The results were interpreted in relation to the elaboration likelihood model, accessibility-diagnosticity model, and other cognitive theories. The findings were discussed in terms of their general implications for the improvement of risk communication about earthquake related messages.     

Communicating risk for vulnerable groups: a case study of the Mano community’s strategies for collective knowledge to action

This paper discusses the emergent interest in risk communication as a strategy for disaster risk reduction. Communication plays an essential role in understanding risk, but studies suggest that people often do not respond in the way that risk experts anticipate. For risk communication to be effective, vulnerable communities need to understand risk within the local context as well as in terms of sustainability. Risk messages offer communities a way to enhance their collective knowledge of existing vulnerabilities, leading them towards alternative solutions for action. A longitudinal study of the Mano community development approach and its recovery from the 1995 Kobe earthquake illustrates how risk communication dynamics contributed to the community’s sustainable risk reduction. The study concludes that risk communication is a collaborative way for a community to work with risk experts, own their risk information, influence existing policies and practices, develop solutions to reduce vulnerability, and ultimately enhance a community’s capacity for managing future risk.     

Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

An Event-Based Approach for Examining the Effects of Wildland Fire Decisions on Communities

Public concern over the consequences of forest fire to wildland interface communities has led to increased resources devoted to fire suppression, fuel treatment, and management of fire events. The social consequences of the decisions involved in these and other fire-related actions are largely unknown, except in an anecdotal sense, but do occur at a variety of temporal and social organizational scales. These consequences are not limited to the fire event itself. Preparation for the possibility of a fire, actions that suppression agencies take during a fire, and postfire decisions all have consequences, if unknown currently. This article presents an "event-based" approach that can be useful for constructing and systematic discussion about the consequences of wildland fire to human communities. For each of the three major periods within this approach, agencies, communities, and individuals make decisions and take actions that have consequences. The article presents an integrated, temporally based process for examining these consequences, which is similar to others developed in the natural hazards and disaster management literature.     

Risk-based evaluation of wastewater treatment projects: A case study in Niasar city,Iran

For sustainable wastewater management, it is essential to consider social, environmental, geological and technical features as well as economic feature in the decision-making process. A limitation of many of the earlier works on wastewater management is that they take into account only financial criteria to make a decision for a given problem. Moreover, the decision-makers’ (DMs) attitude to risk, or optimism degree, when faced with uncertainty is not considered. In this paper, we study the application of risk-based multi-attribute decision-making (RB-MADM) methods to achieve sustainable wastewater management. Consideration of uncertainty, value tradeoffs, and different risk attitudes of decision makers are the important features of the developed methodology. A case study on the Iranian city of Niasar is presented to illustrate how this methodology can be applied to select the most preferred alternative for wastewater management among a set of options. The most preferred option is selected with respect to nine attributes under different optimism/pessimism degrees, using six different MADM methods. The results show that the ranking of options is sensitive to the optimism degree of the DMs. The proposed approach may help policy makers to achieve sustainable wastewater management.     

The social consequences of a natural/technological disaster: evidence from Louisiana and Mississippi

Disaster scholarship shows that people’s relationships stay the same or improve after natural disasters and become worse after technological, or human-induced, events. Using the case of Katrina, this research explores what happens to people’s relationships after a disaster that began with a catastrophic natural event and was followed by numerous failures in the way human institutions responded to the event. Through an analysis of survey data collected in devastated areas of Louisiana and Mississippi in 2008, this study tests how consequences of both natural (damage to the home and having to leave the home) and technological events (distrust in government, stress, concern about toxic exposure, and pursuing litigation) affect people’s relationships with family members and community groups. Damage to the home, distrust in government, and the pursuit of litigation lead to declines in people’s relationships. These experiences are more likely to change intimate relationships (with family) than relationships in the broader community. The relevance that these findings have for creating better social justice outcomes after future disasters is discussed.     

NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE AND THE COASTAL ZONE: A CASE STUDY OF HURRICANE ELOISE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents evidence that currently published flood insurance premiums may be insufficient to cover expected losses in coastal areas subject to hurricane. The problems of developing flood premiums in coastal zones are discussed and Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) reaction to these problems analyzed. Flood losses in the coastal zone of Bay County, Florida due to hurricane Eloise are compared with losses which would be predicted by the FIA. This comparison raises important questions concerning the adequacy of flood premiums in coastal zones and the undesirable indirect effects that underpricing flood risk will have on location decisions in the coastal floodplain.     

Should I stay or should I go? An experimental study of health and economic government policies following a severe biological agent release

Extensive research has explored policy challenges associated with preparing and responding to a large-scale biological release. A key component in recovery strategy development that has received less attention is the understanding of government policy influence on the impacted populations’ migratory decisions. This study experimentally manipulates health and economic government policies during response and recovery to assess the extent to which public migration is contingent on the level of government intervention. Set immediately following a large-scale anthrax release in San Francisco, we use a five episode video scenario to describe details about the environmental impacts of the disaster, emergency response procedures, and clean-up operations. Within these video segments, the extent of government involvement in economic and health risk policies is manipulated. Using these manipulations as predictors, we track how varying levels of government risk signals influence migration behavior at three distinct decision points during disaster recovery. In addition, two belief scales and two scales of emotion (affect) are included as predictors to explore the potential for their mediating role in explaining intentions to migrate. We find that the decision to migrate is highly context-sensitive, with each decision point showing a unique combination of significant predictors influencing decision making. At 19 days following the anthrax release, the health risk policy manipulation has both a direct and indirect effect on migration behavior. At 3 months, the influence of the health risk policy manipulation is mediated by beliefs, and at 1 year, only indirect effects associated with affect and beliefs influence migration.     

Farmers’ Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers’ lives. Farmers’ perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers’ perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers’ perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family’s lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government’s, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.     

Food System Fragility and Resilience in the Aftermath of Disruption and Controversy

Discussions about “disruptive” food controversies abound in popular and academic literatures, particularly with respect to meat production and consumption, yet there is little scholarship examining what makes an event disruptive in the first instance. Filling this gap will improve our understanding of how food controversies unfold and why certain issues may be more likely to linger in the public consciousness as opposed to others. I address these questions by using focus groups and in-depth interviews to analyze five potentially upsetting topics: dietary warnings about meat consumption, meat safety recalls, eating meat directly from the skull of the animal, the morality of killing animals for food, and the “pink slime” debate. Findings suggest that disruptive events involve negative affective reactions to safety hazards, disgust-provoking sensory cues, and/or ethical dilemmas. When these cues exist in isolation from one another, consumers’ reactions are quite often short-lived, while the simultaneous presence of multiple disruptive elements in the context of a single issue or event can trigger a far stronger reaction.     

Outreach Programs,Peer Pressure,and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.     

The role of local governments before and during chemical accidents,focusing on changes in hazardous chemical management systems

ABSTRACT

Disaster management spans actions before, during, and after disaster events. Changes in the roles and functions of local governments before a disaster can influence other stages of disaster management. After a chemical spill in 2012, South Korean hazardous chemical management tasks were returned to the central government and local governments’ roles and functions were reduced. To identify associated issues and enhance the hazardous chemical management system, this study analyzed changes in laws and policies and conducted interviews with stakeholders. While the changes helped with centralization, reinforcement, and specification, some loopholes were discovered. The information and human resource capacities of local governments and intra – and intergovernmental relations issues have hindered their active participation before and during chemical disasters. These loopholes can be addressed through institutional enhancements for local governments, such as including them in monitoring hazardous chemical handling facilities, developing codes articulating the division of tasks among departments within them, and providing adequate incentives for them to increase their personnel. This study provides empirical data that informs ongoing debates about the centralization and devolution of disaster management by linking local governments’ ordinary management systems to their disaster management activities.     

Experts under the microscope: the Wivenhoe Dam case

Prosecution of experts in the wake of disasters has emerged as common in the context of increasing social intolerance of risk. This paper examines expert blame using as a case study the decisions of engineers who operated Wivenhoe Dam during the Queensland floods in January 2011 and the criticisms of those decisions by the subsequent Commission of Inquiry. Our analysis draws on the literature on organisational safety, organisational learning and expertise to examine the relevance of the criteria against which the engineers were judged, the relevant competence of those who made this assessment and the broader implications of such exercises. Our analysis shows that lay judgements of expert practice can be misleading, as evidenced by the Commission of Inquiry’s misguided focus on procedural adherence. We argue that such inquiries—where the focus is on assigning blame—detract from opportunities to learn from incidents and can negatively impact on professional practices. If the aim is to make future disasters less likely, then inquiries that take this approach may be failing in this endeavour, or at least not maximising their contribution.     

How do children cope with global climate change? Coping strategies,engagement, and well-being

The aim of this questionnaire study was to explore how Swedish 12-year-olds (n = 293) cope with climate change, and how different coping strategies relate to environmental engagement and well-being. Three coping strategies were identified: problem-focused coping, de-emphasizing the seriousness of climate change, and meaning-focused coping. Problem-focused and meaning-focused coping had positive associations with measures of environmental engagement, while de-emphasizing the threat had negative associations with engagement. Problem-focused coping was positively related to general negative affect, which was explained by the tendency for highly problem-focused children to worry more about climate change. In contrast, the more meaning-focused coping the children used the less they experienced negative affect, and the more they experienced life satisfaction, general positive affect, purpose, and optimism. Finally, moderation analyses revealed that for children high on problem-focused coping; meaning-focused coping, purpose, and optimism worked as buffers against negative affect. The importance of positive emotions for constructive coping is discussed.     

On the sensitivity of the value of information to risk aversion in two-action decision problems

This paper discusses the sensitivity of the value of information to the risk aversion in two-action decision problems when the initial wealth is uncertain. We demonstrate that there is no general monotonicity between information value and the Arrow–Pratt risk aversion in this setting. We then show that monotonicity exists in the sense of Rubinstein’s measure of risk aversion when the lottery is independent of the initial wealth. Finally, we show that if the lottery is dependent on the initial wealth, then Ross’s measure of risk aversion is needed to characterize this monotonic relation. Our results explain the shape of the sensitivity analysis curve of the value of information to risk aversion and interpret various measures of risk aversion based on their monotonicity with information value.     

Intergovernmental relationships after disaster: state and local government learning during flood recovery in Colorado

ABSTRACT

When communities experience disaster, emergency response and recovery are led internally, based on local-level policy decisions and priorities. Decisions about how or whether to rebuild are made by local governments. Higher governmental authorities such as states and provinces may institute their own disaster recovery processes and policies in addition to or in competition with local governments. Greater intergovernmental engagement could increase resources and knowledge, which would yield higher levels of learning and result in superior disaster recovery policy outcomes. The role of higher authorities, then, can have important implications for policy processes and outcomes. The learning literature includes a dearth of studies that analyze the relationships between state and local governments during disaster recovery. We move the learning literature forward by analyzing intergovernmental relationships during disaster recovery. We find that learning within local governments is associated with higher levels of resource flows from state agencies as well as more collaborative intergovernmental relationships. We also find that state governments can improve processes for disaster recovery assistance and bring together disaster-affected local governments to promote learning during the recovery process. While this study focused on relationships constrained by U.S. federal dynamics, the lessons are useful to other multilevel governance systems.     

A geophysical perspective of value of information: examples of spatial decisions for groundwater sustainability

The value of information (VOI) can be used to determine what kind of spatial information maybe relevant and useful for groundwater sustainability decisions. In this paper, the unique challenges for applying VoI to spatial information from geophysical data are described. The uncertainty regarding the spatial structure or continuity of the subsurface properties can be described with geostatistical sample models. Using these models, one can quantify the prior value given our present state of uncertainty and a set of decision alternatives and outcomes. Because geophysical techniques are a type of remote-sensing data, assuming “perfect” information is not realistic since the techniques usually are indirectly sampling the aquifer properties. Therefore, the focus of this paper is describing how the data reliability (the measure of imperfectness) can be quantified. One of the foremost considerations is the non-unique relationship between geological parameters (which determine groundwater flow) and geophysical observables (what determines the response of the technique). Another is to have the information in a form such that it is useful for spatial decisions. This will often require inversion and interpretation of the geophysical data. Inversion reconstructs an image of the subsurface from the raw geophysical data. How closely the image reproduces the true subsurface structure or property of interest depends on the particular technique’s resolution, depth of investigation and sensor locations. Lastly, in some cases, interpretation of the geophysical data or inversion will be necessary to link the data to the variables that determine the outcome of the decision. Three examples are provided that illustrate different approaches and methods for addressing these challenges. In the examples, time-domain electromagnetic and electrical resistivity techniques are evaluated for their ability to assist in spatial decisions for aquifer management. The examples considered address these three situations: aquifer vulnerability to surface–borne contaminants, managed aquifer recharge and CO₂/brine leakage (related to CO₂ geologic sequestration activities). The methods presented here are transferable to other subsurface sciences and decisions that involve risk. Recent work has been applied to geothermal well-siting using electromagnetic techniques. These approaches can also be applied for oil and mining spatial decisions, and they offer advantages over previous VOI work done for oil applications: they explicitly include the geologic uncertainty modeling and simulate the physics of the considered geophysical technique.     

Dissemination of food crops with nutritional benefits: Adoption and disadoption of soybeans in Togo and Benin

To combat high rates of malnutrition in sub‐Saharan Africa, the UN Millennium Project has called for increased emphasis on technologies that explicitly link agricultural and nutritional components. While there is a large literature on the factors that influence household decisions to adopt new agricultural technologies with economic or environmental benefits, less is known about the factors that determine the uptake and continued use of agricultural technologies promoted exclusively for their health benefits. Using data from a 2004 survey in the Tamberma region of Togo and Benin, we identify factors that influence the adoption and disadoption of soybeans — a crop being promoted throughout West Africa for its high protein content. Similar to the literature on adoption of other sustainable agriculture technologies, we find that household preferences, resource endowments, and risk and uncertainty affect household decisions about soybeans. However, by analyzing decisions about initial uptake and continued cultivation separately, we uncover the importance of intrahousehold dynamics and experience with the soybean crop. To successfully address malnutrition through new agricultural technologies, researchers and rural extension agents should take a disaggregated view of technology adoption, seeking to identify and tailor their outreach to the different factors important at different stages of the dissemination process.     

Measuring participation by socially vulnerable groups in hazard mitigation planning,Bertie County,North Carolina

In accordance with the Disaster Mitigation Act, most US counties have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to reduce future disaster losses. HMPs are important as they can be used to proactively assess risk, direct future development, raise awareness and build consensus. Using a population-based sample, we interviewed residents of Bertie County, NC, about their awareness of and participation in the HMP process to determine if demographics, social vulnerability or hazard vulnerability were associated with increased awareness or participation. We also assessed whether these factors were associated with knowledge of policy changes and investments that were adopted in the HMP. Overall, the unemployed were the only group less likely to report awareness of or participation in HMP development. African-Americans, mobile home residents, the poor, short-term residents and those with less disaster experience were less likely to be aware of policies and investments prioritised in the HMP. Targeted efforts to increase awareness could potentially improve disaster outcomes among vulnerable populations.