Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICAL METHODS IN URBAN HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH1

ABSTRACT. In urban hydrologic studies, it is often necessary to determine the effect of changes in urban land use patterns on such runoff characteristics as flood peaks and flow volumes. Nonparametric statistical methods have certain properties that make them a valuable tool for detecting hydrologic change caused by a treatment, such as urbanization, that changes watershed over a period of time. As many hydrologists do not have a working familiarity with nonparametric methods, a number of them are used for illustrative purposes to analyze the effect of urbanization on 24 years of annual flood peaks for a Louisville, Kentucky, watershed. In the example, urbanization was found to increase the central tendency, but not the dispersion of the peaks. Peak flows modeled by holding watershed parameters constant were also found to be increasing because of an upward trend in precipitation. By following the numerical examples in the paper and looking up test statistics in referenced sources, the reader can easily apply these methods to other situations.     

A LONG‐TERM,WATERSHED‐SCALE,EVALUATION OF THE IMPACTS OF ANIMAL WASTE BMPs ON INDICATOR BACTERIA CONCENTRATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Driven by increasing concerns about bacterial pollution from agricultural sources, states such as Virginia have initiated cost sharing programs that encourage the use of animal waste best management practices (BMPs) to control this pollution. Although a few studies have shown that waste management BMPs are effective at the field scale, their effectiveness at the watershed scale and over the long term is unknown. The focus of this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of BMPs in reducing bacterial pollution at the watershed scale and over the long term. To accomplish this goal, a 1,163 ha watershed located in the Piedmont region of Virginia was monitored over a ten‐year period. Fecal coliforms (FC) and fecal streptococci (FS) were measured as indicators of bacterial pollution. A pre‐BMP versus post‐BMP design was adopted. Major BMPs implemented were manure storage facilities, stream fencing, water troughs, and nutrient management. Seasonal Kendall trend analysis revealed a significant decreasing trend during the post‐BMP period for FC concentrations at the watershed outlet, but not at the subwatershed level. Implementation of BMPs also resulted in a significant reduction in the geometric mean of FS concentrations. FC concentrations in streamflow at the watershed outlet exceeded the Virginia primary standard 86 and 74 percent of the time during pre‐BMP and post‐BMP periods, respectively. Corresponding exceedances for the secondary standard were 50 and 41 percent. Violations decreased only slightly during the post‐BMP period. The findings of this study suggest that although BMP implementation can be expected to accomplish some improvement in water quality, BMP implementation alone may not ensure compliance with current water quality standards.     

Assessing the Effects of Nutrient Management in an Estuary Experiencing Climatic Change: The Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina

Eutrophication is a serious water quality problem in estuaries receiving increasing anthropogenic nutrient loads. Managers undertaking nutrient-reduction strategies aimed at controlling estuarine eutrophication are faced with the challenge that upstream freshwater segments often are phosphorus (P)-limited, whereas more saline downstream segments are nitrogen (N)-limited. Management also must consider climatic (hydrologic) variability, which affects nutrient delivery and processing. The interactive effects of selective nutrient input reductions and climatic perturbations were examined in the Neuse River Estuary (NRE), North Carolina, a shallow estuary with more than a 30-year history of accelerated nutrient loading and water quality decline. The NRE also has experienced a recent increase in Atlantic hurricanes and record flooding, which has affected hydrology and nutrient loadings. The authors examined the water quality consequences of selective nutrient (P but not N) reductions in the 1980s, followed by N reductions in the 1990s and an increase in hurricane frequency since the mid-1990s. Selective P reductions decreased upstream phytoplankton blooms, but increased downstream phytoplankton biomass. Storms modified these trends. In particular, upstream annual N and P concentrations have decreased during the elevated hurricane period. Increased flushing and scouring from storms and flooding appear to have enhanced nutrient retention capabilities of the NRE watershed. From a management perspective, one cannot rely on largely unpredictable changes in storm frequency and intensity to negate anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and eutrophication. To control eutrophication along the hydrologically variable freshwater–marine continuum, N and P reductions should be applied adaptively to reflect point-source–dominated drought and non–point-source–dominated flood conditions.     

Flood Risk Reduction from Agricultural Best Management Practices

Best management practices (BMPs) play an important role in improving impaired water quality from conventional row crop agriculture. In addition to reducing nutrient and sediment loads, BMPs such as fertilizer management, reduced tillage, and cover crops could alter the hydrology of agricultural systems and reduce surface water runoff. While attention is devoted to the water quality benefits of BMPs, the potential co‐benefits of flood loss reduction are often overlooked. This study quantifies the effects of selected commonly applied BMPs on expected flood loss to agricultural and urban areas in four Iowa watersheds. The analysis combines a watershed hydrologic model, hydraulic model outputs, and a loss estimation model to determine relationships between hydrologic changes from BMP implementations and annual economic flood loss. The results indicate a modest reduction in peak discharge and economic loss, although loss reduction is substantial when urban centers or other high‐value assets are located downstream in the watershed. Among the BMPs, wetlands, and cover crops reduce losses the most. The research demonstrates that watershed‐scale implementation of agricultural BMPs could provide benefits of flood loss reduction in addition to water quality improvements.     

THE USE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL INDICES FOR FLOOD PEAK ESTIMATION ON UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

: The construction of a flood peak index map was attempted for use by hydrologists in the simple format of rainfall maps. Since flood peaks are highly dependent on watershed area, the effect of area was removed. By regression analysis flood peaks of 2.33 and 100-year return periods were found to be proportional to watershed area to the 0.8 and 0.7 powers, respectively. Therefore, indices C_{2 33}= Q_{2 33}/_A0.7 were completed at each gage and plotted on a Pennsylvania map. It was attempted to further remove some of the scatter by regression of C with several other watershed parameters like slope, percent forest cover, and watershed shape, but no significant correlation could be found. The index maps, drawn without attenuation of the scatter, can be used by hydrologists to compute flood peaks as Q = CAⁿ (with n = 0.8 and 0.7 for the 2.33 and 100-year flood peaks, respectively). Flood peak safety factors can be based on visual observation of the index variation in the vicinity of the location for which the flood peak estimate is needed.     

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.     

FOREST HYDROLOGY ISSUES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: A CONSULTANT'S VIEWPOINT1

ABSTRACT: Forest hydrology should be a mature science with routine use of hydrological procedures to evaluate the effect of past, current and proposed harvesting practices on water resources. It is not. However, water users are pressuring forest managers to exercise their role in managing forested watersheds for water supply. Most forest managers are poorly equipped to carry out this role. Forestry schools need to ensure that their graduates, whether employed in forest management positions or as specialists in watershed management, understand that all forestry operations may affect instream or downstream water users. Specialists in forest hydrology should be fully aware of the following: (1) climate and watershed characteristics influence streamflow in separate ways; (2) forestry practices produce changes in water yield and quality, and that only these changes need to be evaluated to estimate their effects; (3) watershed storage is a critical factor in evaluating the effects of harvesting on streamflow; and (4) the effect of harvest on one watershed cannot be extrapolated to another without consideration of the processes affected. Research is needed to assist watershed managers in applying models to watersheds for which climate and streamflow data are insufficient. Research is also needed to incorporate climate, streamflow and other data for hydrological models into geographic information systems. Joint research projects are needed to develop physical relationships between stream channel characteristics of importance to fisheries biologists and streamflow characteristics affected by forest harvest.     

WATER LOSS EQUATIONS AND COEFFICIENTS TO ESTIMATE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL1

Infiltration models are based on physical characteristics of the soil and initial soil moisture. For a given soil it is based on the initial soil moisture distribution. A computer simulation model for flood runoff systems (FH-Model) was used to analyze 39 sets of rainfall-runoff data on four small watersheds ranging in size from 17 to 342 square kilometers located in the Yamaska River basin in Quebec. From these analyses, parameters and coefficients have been determined for a water loss (infiltration) equation. A method for determining the loss parameters, using a nonlinear least square curve fitting technique, is presented. Expressions were made to relate the loss parameters to antecedent precipitation. The equations were tested on 11 storm rainfall and runoff events on a watershed located in the same region and close agreements were found.     

Does Wetland Location Matter When Managing Wetlands for Watershed‐Scale Flood and Drought Resilience?

Wetland protection and restoration strategies that are designed to promote hydrologic resilience do not incorporate the location of wetlands relative to the main stream network. This is primarily attributed to the lack of knowledge on the effects of wetland location on wetland hydrologic function (e.g., flood and drought mitigation). Here, we combined a watershed‐scale, surface–subsurface, fully distributed, physically based hydrologic model with historical, existing, and lost (drained) wetland maps in the Nose Creek watershed in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America to (1) estimate the hydrologic functions of lost wetlands and (2) estimate the hydrologic functions of wetlands located at different distances from the main stream network. Modeling results showed wetland loss altered streamflow, decreasing baseflow and increasing stream peakflow during the period of the precipitation events that led to major flooding in the watershed and downstream cities. In addition, we found that wetlands closer to the main stream network played a disproportionately important role in attenuating peakflow, while wetland location was not important for regulating baseflow. The findings of this study provide information for watershed managers that can help to prioritize wetland restoration efforts for flood or drought risk mitigation.     

Multivariate analysis of paired watershed data to evaluate agricultural best management practice effects on stream water phosphorus

Quantification of the effects of management programs on water quality is critical to agencies responsible for water resource protection. This research documents reductions in stream water phosphorus (P) loads resulting from agricultural best management practices (BMPs) implemented as part of an effort to control eutrophication of Cannonsville Reservoir, a drinking water supply for New York City. Dairy farms in the upstate New York reservoir basin were the target of BMPs designed to reduce P losses. A paired watershed study was established on one of these farms in 1993 to evaluate changes in P loading attributable to implementation of BMPs that included manure management, rotational grazing, and improved infrastructure. Intensive stream water monitoring provided data to calculate P loads from the 160-ha farm watershed for all runoff events during a two-year pre-treatment period and a four-year post-treatment period. Statistical control for inter-annual climatic variability was provided by matched P loads from a nearby 86-ha forested watershed, and by several event flow variables measured at the farm. A sophisticated multivariate analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) provided estimates of both seasonal and overall load reductions. Statistical power and the minimum detectable treatment effect (MDTE) were also calculated. The results demonstrated overall event load reductions of 43% for total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) and 29% for particulate phosphorus (PP). Changes in farm management practices and physical infrastructure clearly produced decreases in event P losses measurable at the small watershed scale.     

STREAMFLOW TRENDS IN WISCONSIN'S DRIFTLESS AREA1

ABSTRACT: Trends in streamflow characteristics were analyzed for streams in southwestern Wisconsin's Driftless Area by using data at selected gaging stations. The analyses indicate that annual low flows have increased significantly, whereas annual flood peaks have decreased. The same trends were not observed for forested areas of northern Wisconsin. Streamflow trends for other streams in southeastern Wisconsin draining predominantly agricultural land were similar to trends for Driftless Area streams for annual low flows. The causes for the trends are not well understood nor are the effects. Trends in annual precipitation do not explain the observed trends in streamflow. Other studies have found that erosion rates decreased significantly in the Driftless Area, and have attributed this reduction to a change of agricultural practices, which increase infiltration, decrease flood peaks, and increase low flows.     

USE OF HISTORIC FLOOD INFORMATION IN ESTIMATING FLOOD PEAKS ON UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

Regional procedures to estimate flood magnitudes for ungaged watersheds typically ignore available site-specific historic flood information such as high water marks and the corresponding flow estimates, otherwise referred to as limited site-specific historic (LSSH) flood data. A procedure to construct flood frequency curves on the basis of LSSH flood observations is presented. Simple inverse variance weighting is employed to systematically combine flood estimates obtained from the LSSH data base with those from a regional procedure to obtain improved estimtes of flood peaks on the ungaged watershed. For the region studied, the variance weighted estimates of flow had a lower logarithmic standard error than either the regional or the LSSH flow estimates, when compared to the estimates determined by three standard distributions for gaged watersheds investigated in the development of the methodology. Use of the simple inverse variance weighting procedure is recommended when “reliable” estimates of LSSH floods for the ungaged site are available.     

Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a Korean Watershed1

Abstract: A mix of causative mechanisms may be responsible for flood at a site. Floods may be caused because of extreme rainfall or rain on other rainfall events. The statistical attributes of these events differ according to the watershed characteristics and the causes. Traditional methods of flood frequency analysis are only adequate for specific situations. Also, to address the uncertainty of flood frequency estimates for hydraulic structures, a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall‐runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs, are used. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated to evaluate the probability of floods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a flood frequency curve derivation method driven by multiple random variables and to develop a tool that can consider the uncertainties of design floods. This study focuses on developing a flood frequency curve based on nonparametric statistical methods for the estimation of probabilities of rare floods that are more appropriate in Korea. To derive the frequency curve, rainfall generation using the nonparametric kernel density estimation approach is proposed. Many flood events are simulated by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the center Latin hypercube sampling method to estimate the associated uncertainty. This study applies the methods described to a Korean watershed. The results provide higher physical appropriateness and reasonable estimates of design flood.     

Temporal and Spatial Turbidity Patterns Over 30 Years in a Managed Forest of Western Washington1

Abstract: Forest practices have progressively changed over the last 30 years in the Pacific Northwest to address water quality concerns. There have been some assessments of these new management practices made at a site scale but very few studies have attempted to evaluate their efficacy at reducing cumulative sediment production at a watershed scale. Such an evaluation is difficult due to the spatial and temporal variability in sediment delivery and transport processes. Due to this inherent variability, detecting a response to management changes requires a long‐term data record. We utilized a water quality dataset collected over 30 years at four locations in the Deschutes River watershed (western Washington) to assess trends in turbidity and whether sediment control procedures implemented over this time period had any detectable influence. The sample sites ranged from small headwater streams (2.4 and 3.0 km²) to the mainstem of the Deschutes River (150 km²). Declining trends in turbidity were detected at all the permanently monitored sites. The mainstem Deschutes River site, which integrates sediment processes from the entire study watershed, showed dramatic declines in turbidity even with continued active forest management. For the small basins, logging and road construction occurred in the 1970s and 1980s and turbidity declined thereafter, achieving prelogging levels by 2000. There are no temporal trends in flow that could be responsible for the observed trends in turbidity. Our results suggest that increased attention to reducing sediment production from roads and minimizing the amount of road runoff reaching stream channels has been the primary cause of the declining turbidity levels observed in this study.     

MAPPING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: For regional precipitation frequency analyses, methods are needed to spatially interpolate or smooth point intensity duration frequency (IDF) estimates at gage sites for the purposes of visualization and estimation at ungaged sites. In this study to update IDF estimates for Michigan, the assumption is made that for practical purposes, the entire state may be treated as a homogeneous region in which annual maximum precipitation is identically distributed at each site apart from a site‐specific scaling factor, commonly known as the index flood. Several interpolation and smoothing techniques are evaluated for IDF estimation at ungaged sites, including trend surface analysis, thin plate splines, inverse distance weighting, and several kriging algorithms. Ordinary block kriging is recommended as a practical and objective method for smoothing the variability in the index flood values and developing isopluvial maps.     

MODELING TRANSIENT pH DEPRESSIONS IN COASTAL STREAMS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA USING NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Transient events in water chemistry in small coastal watersheds, particularly pH depressions, are largely driven by inputs of precipitation. While the response of each watershed depends upon both the nature of the precipitation event and the season of the year, how the response changes over time can provide insight into landscape changes. Neural network models for an urban watershed and a rural‐suburban watershed were developed in an attempt to detect changes in system response resulting from changes in the landscape. Separate models for describing pH depressions for wet season and dry season conditions were developed for a seven year period at each watershed. The neural network models allowed separation of the effects of precipitation variations and changes in watershed response. The ability to detect trends in pH depression magnitudes was improved by analyzing neural network residuals rather than the raw data. Examination of sensitivity plots of the models indicated how the neural networks were affected by different inputs. There were large differences in effects between seasons in the rural‐suburban watershed whereas effects in the urban watershed were consistent between seasons. During the study period, the urban watershed showed no change in pH depression response, while the rural‐suburban watershed showed a significant increase in the magnitude of pH depressions, likely the result of increased urbanization.     

LAWS AND PROGRAMS FOR CONTROLLING NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN FOREST AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Recent federal legislation strengthened nonpoint source pollution regulations and helped to support and standardize pollution control efforts. A comprehensive review of current state and federal programs for forest areas reveals a substantial increase in agency water quality protection activities. These new efforts emphasize monitoring to assess the use and effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs). Recent monitoring reveals that BMP use is increasing and that such use typically maintains water quality within standards. However, information is generally lacking about the cost effectiveness of BMP programs. Carefully designed and executed monitoring is the key to better specification of BMPs and more cost effective water quality protection. (KEY TERMS: water quality; nonpoint source pollution; water law; watershed management; forestry; best management practices.)     

NUTRIENT CONCENTRATION CRITERIA AND CHARACTERIZATION OF PATTERNS IN TROPHIC STATE FOR RIVERS IN HETEROGENEOUS LANDSCAPES1

ABSTRACT: A method is demonstrated for the development of nutrient concentration criteria and large scale assessment of trophic state in environmentally heterogeneous landscapes. The method uses the River Environment Classification (REC) as a spatial framework to partition rivers according to differences in processes that control the accrual and loss of algae biomass. The method is then applied to gravel bed rivers with natural flow regimes that drain hilly watersheds in New Zealand's South Island. An existing model is used to characterize trophic state (in terms of chlorophyll a as a measure of maximum biomass) using nutrient concentration, which controls the rate of biomass accrual, and flood frequency, which controls biomass loss. Variation in flood frequency was partitioned into three classes, and flow data measured at 68 sites was used to show that the classes differ with respect to flood frequency. Variation in nutrient concentration was partitioned at smaller spatial scales by subdivision of higher level classes into seven classes. The median of flood frequency in each of the three higher level classes was used as a control variable in the model to provide spatially explicit nutrient concentration criteria by setting maximum chlorophyll a to reflect a desired trophic state. The median of mean monthly soluble reactive phosphorus and soluble inorganic nitrogen measured at 68 water quality monitoring sites were then used to characterize the trophic state of each of the seven lower level classes. The method models biomass and therefore allows variation in this response variable to provide options for trophic state and the associated nutrient concentrations to achieve these. Thus it is less deterministic than using reference site water quality. The choice from among these options is a sociopolitical decision, which reflects the management objectives rather than purely technical considerations.     

Bison and cattle grazing management,bare ground coverage,and links to suspended sediment concentrations in grassland streams

This study quantified the impact of bison and cattle grazing management practices on bare ground coverage at the watershed, riparian, and forested riparian scales within the Flint Hills ecoregion in Kansas. We tested for correlations between bare ground coverage and fluvial suspended sediment concentrations during base‐flow and storm‐flow events. We used remotely sensed imagery combined with field surveys to classify ground cover and quantify the presence of bare ground. Base‐flow water samples were collected bi‐monthly during rain‐free periods and 24 h following precipitation events. Storm‐flow water samples were collected on the rising limb of the hydrograph, using single‐stage automatic samplers. Ungrazed treatments contained the lowest coverage of bare ground at the watershed, riparian, and forested riparian scales. Bison treatments contained the highest coverage of bare ground at the watershed scale, while high‐density cattle treatments contained the highest coverage of bare ground at the riparian and forested riparian scales. In bison and cattle‐grazed treatments, a majority of bare ground was located near fence lines, watershed boundaries, and third‐ and fourth‐order stream segments. Inorganic sediment concentrations at base flow were best predicted by riparian bare ground coverage, while storm‐flow sediment concentrations were best predicted by watershed scale bare ground coverage.