A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming method for air quality management under uncertainty

A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming (TIJP) method is developed for planning a regional air quality management system with multiple pollutants and multiple sources. The TIJP method incorporates the techniques of two-stage stochastic programming, joint-probabilistic constraint programming and interval mathematical programming, where uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values can be addressed. Moreover, it can not only examine the risk of violating joint-probability constraints, but also account for economic penalties as corrective measures against any infeasibility. The developed TIJP method is applied to a case study of a regional air pollution control problem, where the air quality index (AQI) is introduced for evaluation of the integrated air quality management system associated with multiple pollutants. The joint-probability exists in the environmental constraints for AQI, such that individual probabilistic constraints for each pollutant can be efficiently incorporated within the TIJP model. The results indicate that useful solutions for air quality management practices have been generated; they can help decision makers to identify desired pollution abatement strategies with minimized system cost and maximized environmental efficiency.     

Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management – Part A: Methodology

In this study, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (IFCTIP) approach is proposed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage programming and mixed-integer linear programming techniques by incorporating uncertainties expressed as multiple uncertainties of intervals and dual probability distributions within a general optimization framework. The developed method can provide an effective linkage between the predefined environmental policies and the associated economic implications. Four special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it provides a linkage to predefined policies that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; secondly, it is useful for tackling uncertainties presented as intervals, probabilities, fuzzy sets and their incorporation; thirdly, it facilitates dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period, multi-level, and multi-option context; fourthly, the penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised solid waste-generation rates are violated. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada.     

Identifying Opportunities for Decision Support Systems in Support of Regional Resource Use Planning: An Approach Through Soft Systems Methodology

/ Regional resource use planning relies on key regional stakeholder groups using and having equitable access to appropriate social, economic, and environmental information and assessment tools. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve stakeholder access to such information and analysis tools. Regional resource use planning, however, is a complex process involving multiple issues, multiple assessment criteria, multiple stakeholders, and multiple values. There is a need for an approach to DSS development that can assist in understanding and modeling complex problem situations in regional resource use so that areas where DSSs could provide effective support can be identified, and the user requirements can be well established. This paper presents an approach based on the soft systems methodology for identifying DSS opportunities for regional resource use planning, taking the Central Highlands Region of Queensland, Australia, as a case study.     

An interval type-2 fuzzy stochastic approach for regional-scale electric power system under parameter uncertainty

In this study, an interval type-2 fuzzy stochastic linear programming method (IT2FSLP) is developed to support regional-scale electric power system (REM) planning. The IT2FSLP-REM model is based on an integration of interval type-2 fuzzy sets boundary programming and stochastic linear programming techniques enable it to have robust abilities to the deal with uncertainties expressed as type-2 fuzzy intervals and probabilistic distributions within a general optimization framework. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for energy supply and energy conversion processes, as well as provide capacity expansion options with multiple periods. The developed model is applied to a case of planning regional-scale energy and environmental systems to demonstrate its applicability. Based on a two-step solution algorithm, reasonable solutions have been obtained, which reflect tradeoffs among economic cost, environmental requirements, and energy-supply security. Thus, the lower and upper solutions of IT2FSLP-REM would then help energy authorities adjust or justify allocation patterns of regional energy resources and services.     

REASONABLY FULL HYDROLOGIC DEVELOPMENT OF RESERVOIR SITES1

The size of multipurpose reservoir development is usually determined by an economic analysis of reservoir capabilities and the present and projected water resources needs which can be satisfied. This analysis is referred to as project formulation, wherein optimum conditions are sought. In responding to multiple objectives, i.e., national economic development, regional development and environmental quality, which are being considered in river basin planning in recent years, reservoirs should provide for reasonably full hydrologic development. Additional storage will be needed to provide opportunities for economic development, as well as meet unexpected development. Also, it provides more flow regulation capability for quality of environment considerations. An analysis has been made on twelve reservoir sites in the New York State portion of the Susquehanna River Basin to determine the so-called “reasonably full hydrologic development of reservoir sites.” Hydrologic, economic, environmental and physical characteristics of the sites are taken into consideration. For normal conditions, it can be concluded that a yield equivalent to about 80 percent of the average discharge (runoff) can be considered as reasonably full hydrologic development for reservoir sites in the Susquehanna River Basin in New York. The same technique can be applied elsewhere to determine reasonably full hydrologic development of reservoir sites.     

Developing river and lake basins for sustained economic growth and social progress

It is evident that river basin development in Africa can do much to provide environmental stability to wildly erratic hydrologic and climatic cycles, to produce more food and to contribute to economic growth. The experience to date of river basin development in Africa has not proven as positive as in many developing countries. There are too many examples of ill-conceived and ill-suited schemes that contribute to further environmental degradation, social dislocation and hardship, and weaken already stressed national economies. The experience in Africa suggests that the real challenge for Africans to achieve environmentally self-sustaining water resources development lies in establishing the appropriate social and environmental context for physical development to take place. Attention needs to focus on regional development, multi-objective planning, community participation, environmental resiliency, the institutional arrangements for regional development, and the political and economic conditions within the basin states.     

城市环境总体规划中的布局问题研究——以北京市丰台区为例

城市环境总体规划是对城市中长期环境管理的综合安排,是环境保护基础性的规划,其核心问题在于规模、结构和布局,即从城市环境、资源与生态约束角度为社会经济发展规划、城市总体规划与土地利用规划提出限制(环境、资源与生态红线),从环境承载力与发展生态适宜性分区角度为城市发展规划提出发展适度规模、结构与布局。在城市"多规融合"的实践过程中,城市环境总体规划,作为政府综合决策的重要支撑之一,可以为其他的规划编制提供约束条件以及土地供给能力测算值,使得各规划间能够相互支撑、相互融合,因此有必要先行。本文以北京市丰台区环境总体规划为例,从布局角度出发,基于区域土地资源供给能力对丰台区进行土地生态适宜性评价,并得到土地生态适宜性区划图,从而提出丰台区城市总体规划与土地利用规划的限制条件,为城市环境总体规划先行提供科学依据。     

Striking the Balance Between Environment and Economy in Coastal North Carolina

A fundamental purpose of intergovernmental growth management has been to infuse regional concerns—especially regional environmental and economic development concerns—into local land use planning. This paper presents results from a study of state-mandated local planning in coastal North Carolina during the mid-1990s, addressing in particular local efforts to ‘strike a balance’ between environment and economy as required by the state's planning mandate. While acknowledging the need for coastal resource protection, coastal localities were not striking a balance between environment and economy through their planning efforts beyond stating support for the State's minimum resource protection rules. Within this context, key factors yielding less environmentally focused local planning included both local elected officials' concerns about the need for economic development for jobs and their belief that environmental protection was not a local problem. Factors that tended to shift local planning back toward environmental protection included local officials' perception that the local economy was in good shape and heightened citizen engagement.     

A dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (DFSP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. DFSP incorporates interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy vertex analysis (FVA) within a fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) framework to address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and dual intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. A real case for water resources management planning of Zhangweinan River Basin in China is then conducted for demonstrating the applicability of the developed DFSP method. Solutions in association with α-cut levels are generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels, which are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under compound uncertainties. The results can help to identify desired water-allocation schemes for local sustainable development that the prerequisite water demand can be guaranteed when the available water resource is scarce.     

A multicriteria model for planning agricultural regions within a context of groundwater rational management

Current international research focuses on topics like sustainable development, regional planning, environmental decision making and implementation, biodiversity conservation plus a number of other relevant issues, especially at times of economic crisis as today. Economic growth and environmental protection can go hand in hand, provided that decision makers develop and use tools and insights targeting in the implementation of successful and robust long term policies. This paper was developed in the framework of a European research project and implements a Multicriteria Mathematical Programming model that optimises the sustainable management of agricultural regions taking in account the available resources (land, labour, capital) and environmental parameters (agrochemicals, water consumption). The model achieves the optimum farm plan in the area combining different criteria to a utility function under a set of constraints and the spatial integration of the vulnerability maps of the regions into the model enables the regional authorities to design policies for the optimal agricultural development and the groundwater protection from the agricultural land uses. Furthermore, the model is used to simulate different scenarios and policies by the local stakeholders, due to changes on different social, economic and environmental parameters. In this way the decision makers can achieve alternative farm plans and agricultural land uses as well as to estimate economic, social and environmental impacts of different policies. The model has been applied to an agricultural region in Northern Greece and proved to be a valuable tool in the implementation of environmental policies and actions, especially in agricultural regions in a delicate balance as the study area.     

京津冀协同发展的生态环境保护战略研究

随着中共中央在2014年将京津冀协同发展上升为国家战略,京津冀区域再次成为我国北方重要的经济增长极。然而,京津冀地区当前环境形势仍十分严峻,是全国水资源最短缺,大气污染、水污染最严重的区域,生态环境是京津冀协同发展需要尽快补齐的突出短板。本文深刻分析了京津冀区域当前大气、水、生态三个领域存在的突出问题以及内在的体制机制不协调。在此基础上,明确了解决京津冀生态环保总体思路,并分别从环境功能区划、生态保护红线、大气联防联控、跨界水环境治理、环境监管联动以及体制政策创新等方面提出针对性解决措施,为国家开展京津冀生态环境协同治理提供参考借鉴。     

A Recourse‐Based Interval Fuzzy Programming Model for Point‐Nonpoint Source Effluent Trading under Uncertainty

In this study, a recourse‐based interval fuzzy programming (RIFP) model is developed for tackling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy, interval, and/or probabilistic forms in an effluent trading program. It can incorporate preregulated water‐pollution control policies directly into its optimization process, such that an effective linkage between environmental regulations and economic implications (i.e., penalties) caused by improper policies due to uncertainty existence can be provided. The RIFP model is applied to point‐nonpoint source effluent trading of the Xiangxi River in China. The efficiency of trading efforts between water quality improvement and net system benefit under different degrees of satisfying discharge limits is analyzed. The results are able to help support (1) formulation of water‐pollution control strategies under various economic objectives and system‐reliability constraints, (2) selection of the desired effluent trading pattern for point and nonpoint sources, and (3) generation of tradeoffs among system benefit, satisfaction degree, and pollutant mitigation under multiple uncertainties. Compared with the traditional regulatory approaches, the results demonstrate that the water‐pollution control program can be performed more cost‐effectively through trading than nontrading.     

Golf Course Development in a Major Tourist Destination: Implications for Planning and Management

The planning and design of golf course developments is influenced by many factors. This paper focuses on the environmental ramifications of insufficient or lack of compliance with standard environmental and economic planning practices. Specifically, it looks at a tourist destination location that was under the influence of extensive land development and investment speculation. The Gold Coast in Australia was the focal point for large overseas investment due to changes in government legislation regarding foreign investment. Due to the economic climate in the second half of the 1980s many golf course resort developments were built, approved, or planned. Many of these circumvented normal business and environment planning processes. The result has been a dangerous concentration of golf facilities in environmentally sensitive areas and an oversupply of golf facilities. Both of these matters are discussed in terms of the general planning process and the potential economic and environmental impacts to the Gold Coast and similar destinations in other parts of the world.     

Spatial analysis of resources and environmental carrying capacity in Iran

Urbanization and mass movement of the population from rural areas and small cities to megacities have led to environmental, economic, and social problems in Iran. In dealing with these challenges, assessing resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) is considered an effective method to leverage space and capital to achieve sustainable development. This study aimed to rank the provincial RECC in Iran. Toward this purpose, environmental indices were generated from remotely sensed and statistical census data. Then, the provinces were scored in terms of environmental, economic, and infrastructural carrying capacities, and RECC using the mean variance analysis method. Results demonstrated that in most areas, there is no relationship between economic and infrastructural capacities and development. Statistically, a correlation coefficient of −0.53 between economic and environmental carrying capacities indicated excessive use of environmental capacities. Moreover, the spatial distribution pattern of environmental, economic, and infrastructural carrying capacity was entirely heterogeneous between the provinces; there was a northeast–southwest pattern in terms of infrastructural capacity and an economic pattern from north to south. The distribution pattern of RECC is most consistent with the environmental capacity, pointing at the high weight of the indicators of the RECC model. In conclusion, this research offers a new vision for policymakers and provides a theoretical and applicable framework for implementing sustainable strategies in land-use planning. It is recommended that the RECC concept and tools can be used not only for planning but also for measuring the efficiency of spatial development programs and establishing land balances in the region.     

长江流域不同区域间环境公平研究

以区域经济发展水平差距悬殊、环境污染差异明显的长江干流穿过的11个省份为研究对象,并将其分成东部、中部和西部3组,采用统计分析方法探讨经济发展、环境污染排放的区域差异特征。构建了环境公平指数,并分别对2000、2004和2008年3组地区的环境公平程度进行测度,通过聚类分析方法和GIS空间分析工具评价了环境公平指数的空间分布和地域差异。结果表明：长江流域东、中、西部的环境公平指数呈现明显的区域差异现象,并且随着时间的推移和经济的发展,环境公平指数的差异增大,这可能与区域产业转移有关。环境公平指数级别为东部最高,中部和西部较低。但随着西部大开发战略和中部崛起战略的实施,中西部的环境公平指数变化明显。初步认为此现象与国家西部大开发战略和中部崛起战略的实施有关。     

The emergence of 'smart growth' intensification in Toronto: environment and economy in the new official plan

There has been a recent popularization of 'Smart Growth' planning in North American cities. Based upon the aim to decrease the impacts of sprawled regional development on the natural environment, a focus of Smart Growth planning is the intensification of both population and physical development in existing urban areas. Faced with the creation of a new Official Plan for the City of Toronto, municipal planners have chosen urban intensification as the vision for planning in Toronto over the next thirty years. This paper examines the nature of intensification planning in Toronto through an analysis of the language of urban intensification found in the Official Plan vision report. Within this report, emphasis is placed upon the role of intensified development and compact population growth as a solution to the environmental problems of urban sprawl. This paper argues that the environmental aspects of intensification provide a more acceptable public rationale for future intensification processes in Toronto; moreover, that the main rationale for intensification in Toronto is not to solve regional sprawl but to create compact urban districts in order to enhance the economic and physical revitalization of the city. The language of intensification in the Official Plan vision report suggests that urban intensification, particularly in Toronto's downtown core, is a strategy for the development of more 'livable' and vibrant residential and commercial areas. The emphasis on intensified development is geared towards the attraction and maintenance of private investment and skilled labour and is a central part of the City of Toronto's vision of economic growth.     

Economic Valuation of a Mangrove Ecosystem Threatened by Shrimp Aquaculture in Sri Lanka

Mangrove ecosystems in Sri Lanka are increasingly under threat from development projects, especially aquaculture. An economic assessment is presented for a relatively large (42 ha) shrimp culture development proposed for the Rekawa Lagoon system in the south of Sri Lanka, which involved an extended cost–benefit analysis of the proposal and an estimate of the “total economic value” (TEV) of a mangrove ecosystem. The analysis revealed that the internal benefits of developing the shrimp farm are higher than the internal costs in the ratio of 1.5:1. However, when the wider environmental impacts are more comprehensively evaluated, the external benefits are much lower than the external costs in a ratio that ranges between 1:6 and 1:11. In areas like Rekawa, where agriculture and fisheries are widely practiced at subsistence levels, shrimp aquaculture developments have disproportionately large impacts on traditional livelihoods and social welfare. Thus, although the analysis retains considerable uncertainties, more explicit costing of the environmental services provided by mangrove ecosystems demonstrates that low intensity, but sustainable, harvesting has far greater long-term value to local stakeholders and the wider community than large shrimp aquaculture developments.     

北京旅游环境承载力评价及区域差异分析

随着国际大都市的建立和奥运会的举办，北京旅游业将迎来新一轮的快速发展，北京旅游环境承载力问题也更加受到重视。构建了由资源、经济设施、生态环境、文化心理及社会管理组成的旅游环境综合承载力指标体系，评价分析了北京旅游环境承载力及其区域差异，提出了提升旅游环境承载力的建议。结果表明，北京旅游环境承载力即将达到饱和；北京旅游环境承载力的区域差异十分明显，其限制性因素具有显著的区域特色。今后应加强旅游规划来进一步开发旅游资源，建立克服或回避限制性因素的可操作性旅游计划，加强区域统筹安排和生态规划，进行合理的旅游分流，实现旅游人数的区域调控，从而提升旅游环境的承载水平。     

‘Learning by doing’: adaptive planning as a strategy to address uncertainty in planning

Adaptive management, an established method in natural resource and ecosystem management, has not been widely applied to landscape planning due to the lack of an operational method that addresses the role of uncertainty and standardized monitoring protocols and methods. A review of adaptive management literature and practices reveals several key concepts and principles for adaptive planning: (1) management actions are best understood and practiced as experiments; (2) several plans/experiments can be implemented simultaneously; (3) monitoring of management actions are key; and (4) adaptive management can be understood as ‘learning by doing’. The paper identifies various uncertainties in landscape planning as the major obstacles for the adoption of an adaptive approach. To address the uncertainty in landscape planning, an adaptive planning method is proposed where monitoring plays an integral role to reduce uncertainty. The proposed method is then applied to a conceptual test in water resource planning addressing abiotic-biotic-cultural resources. To operationalize adaptive planning, it is argued that professionals, stakeholders and researchers need to function in a genuinely transdisciplinary mode where all contribute to, and benefit from, decision making and the continuous generation of new knowledge.     

Environmental issue area and game theory

The impact of international cultural, political, social, military, scientific, environmental and economic events has never been more vividly felt than today and the ‘challenge of global change’ has been created. Today there are many pressing regional and global problems. The planet is under stress and so are various scientific paradigms. To solve the new problems, international multilateral action is needed and increasingly sought. Mutual and not sporadic cooperation is the most prudent policy, the most effective means to attain set environmental goals such as clean air, clean water and clean soil. As to cooperation, national actions taken by state authorities cannot abolish any of these problems, but regional or preferably global, international multilateral action must be taken to meet the new demands. Responsibility for future generations is the key. Which is preferred: growth at any cost with widespread ecological destruction or sustainable development with cleaner water, air and environment? What is prudent policy? Cooperation or competition? Do we need long-term planning instead of short-term planning and gains? These are the key questions which this paper seeks to answer.