Mineral reserves: Projected lifetimes and security of supply

This article analyses the lifetimes of reserves of three dozen important minerals. Despite the high rate of their extraction in the past 30 years, the recorded reserves of these non-renewable materials were higher in 1981 than in 1950 and they seem to meet foreseeable demand for a long time to come, as indicated by the estimated static lifetime for each of the minerals covered. The dynamic nature of ‘reserves’ is emphasized: further exploration and scientific and technological advance will add to the present proven reserves, and at a higher price further resources will be ‘upgraded’ into commercially exploitable reserves. Apparent long-term security can be disturbed by natural disasters, political events or other factors, especially in the case of minerals whose reserves and production are highly concentrated in one country. However, any such interruption in the continuity of supply is likely to be short-lived.     

The geographic concentration of world mineral supplies

Mineral reserves are unevenly and erratically distributed throughout the world; those countries which were intensively explored in the past — the USA, Canada, the USSR, Australia, South Africa, and a limited number of Asian, African, and Latin American countries — control a large share of many of the industrially important metallic minerals. Current attitudes towards exploration and the mining industry in both the developed and the less developed countries should clearly encourage rather than discourage new exploration. Given an increase in exploration, new reserves may well be found in previously unexplored areas, but any major increase in world mineral supplies will probably come from mining very low- grade deposits and developing new methods of mining and processing non-conventional ores. While it is vital to increase research and development in exploration techniques and mining and processing technology, it is also critical to maintain current levels of consumption and trade by reversing the trend towards trade restriction on the part of some of the less developed countries who are important mineral exporters.     

Exploration and discovery of Australia's copper,nickel, lead and zinc resources 1976–2005

Examination of copper, nickel, lead and zinc (base metals) exploration expenditure and discovery in Australia over the period 1976–2005 reveals some significant trends. Australia's base metal resource inventory grew substantially as a consequence of successful exploration over the period, both through addition of resources at known deposits and new discoveries, notably a small number of very large deposits that underpin the resource base. In 2005, Australia had the world's largest economic demonstrated resources (EDR) of nickel, lead and zinc, and the second largest EDR of copper. Growth in nickel resources has been especially strong owing to discovery of large laterite resources in the late 1990s. Resource life, in average terms based on current EDR and production, is approximately 30 years for lead and zinc, 40 years for nickel sulphide (120 years for all nickel EDR) and 50 years for copper. Despite this success, major increases in production over the period (copper, nickel and zinc output increasing 3–4 fold, lead output doubling) and a fall in discovery rates during much of the 1990s means that resource life for lead and zinc is lower and nickel sulphide comparable now to that in 1976; only the resource life of copper has grown substantially over the period. Current published ore reserves are sufficient for at least 15 years operations at current production levels, but only a small number of the largest deposits currently being mined are likely to still be in production in 20 years. However, several mines have substantial inferred resources that may allow production beyond current mine reserves and there is a substantial number of undeveloped deposits that may provide the foundation for extended or new mining operations. The discovery record is strongly cyclical with resource growth for all the base metals punctuated by the discovery of giant (world-class) deposits each decade: these underpin current and future production. Recent higher metal prices and renewed interest in base metals, especially nickel, has reversed a 10 year decline in base metal exploration attended by reduced rates of discovery and resulted in record expenditure, new nickel, copper and zinc discoveries, and increased resources at a number of existing deposits, notably the Olympic Dam copper–uranium–gold deposit. With the exception of the Prominent Hill copper–gold and West Musgrave nickel–copper deposits, most of the recent discoveries, especially zinc (-lead) deposits, are of small tonnage (some of high grade). Nevertheless, these new discoveries have helped stimulate further exploration and also highlight the potential for further discoveries in little-explored provinces, especially those under regolith and shallow sedimentary cover.     

Natural resource abundance and economic growth revisited

An analysis using reserves as a measure of resource abundance suggests that natural resource abundance has not been a significant structural determinant of economic growth in the seventies and eighties. The story behind the effect of natural resources on economic growth is a complex one that typical growth regressions do not capture well. Preliminary evidence suggests that natural resources may affect economic growth through both ‘positive’ and ‘negative channels.’ Potential reverse causality running from these ‘channels’ to fuel and mineral reserves further complicates the analysis. I conjecture that, as economic historians suggest, the ability of a country to exploit its resource base depends critically on the nature of the learning process involved.     

CHANGING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES AND TECHNIQUES IN MINERAL EXPLORATION

The concepts, approaches and techniques in mineral exploration are changing to meet the demands of society for the discovery of new ore deposits. Recent developments in mineral processing and metal production have made it possible to consider deposits not acceptable before, such as low-grade uranium and copper occurrences, lateritic nickel, iron-rich chromites, lithium in brines, and disseminated beryllium deposits. New concepts on the formation of mineral deposits, as for example the continental drift theory, and new exploration techniques, such as remote sensing, airborne mapping and sampling, electronic data storage and analysis, assure a higher success rate of exploration projects.     

Indian mineral resources — a short review

Though India's iron ore and manganese exports are a major source of foreign exchange, the continent lacks sufficient reserves of many important minerals, or has only recently exploited known reserves on an adequate scale. This article reviews India's mineral resources and points out trends in exploration and production.     

安徽省矿产资源现状与可持续发展初探

安徽省矿产资源种类繁多,储量丰富,特别是煤炭、Ｆｅ、Ｃｕ、Ｓ、非金属等矿产资源分布相对集中,具有南北不同的特点。矿产资源在开发利用中存在着开发利用广度大、加工程度低、综合利用率低、浪费严重、引发多种地质灾害等问题。本文对安徽省矿产资源的可持续发展对策进行了探讨     

Ghana: revival of the mineral sector

After almost two decades of decline, Ghana's mineral sector has rebounded significantly and is currently the main foreign exchange earner. Gold mining is the principal activity within the sector and accounted for 41 percent of total export earnings in 1996. This paper presents an overview of Ghana's mineral industry and covers mineral resources, production and reserves; mining investments; the role of mining in the economy; and the structure of the industry. An overview of the national mineral policy is also presented to depict the current regulatory and fiscal environment in which the industry operates. The spectacular reversal in mineral sector performance can be attributed to the adoption of World Bank recommendations in a new national mineral policy, the 1986 Minerals and Mining Law, aimed at revitalizing the sector.     

What are the implications of human rights for minerals taxation?

This article examines the relationship between a state's taxation of mineral revenues and the human rights obligation to use ‘maximum available resources’ to further citizens' welfare. These both have implications for understanding the other but there has been little attention to their interaction.Contemporary (economic and policy) approaches to mineral taxation revolve around economic rent and providing a ‘neutral’ economic environment that does not influence investment decisions. There is no reference to human rights obligations—these are just part of the state's general responsibilities for which it can legitimately raise taxes. Taxation analysis largely ignores whether the state wants money to ensure there is adequate food for the population, or instead to stage the Miss Universe pageant.Human rights has relevance for the state's management of resources. The requirement for states to apply ‘maximum available resources’ to fulfil human rights suggests that mineral extraction (and taxation) should occur as fast as possible to be applied for the human rights of the current population A more considered analysis weighs against such a literal interpretation. Nevertheless, the requirement of using ‘maximum available resources’ to fulfil human rights has important implications for mineral taxation.     

Mining and sustainable development: considerations for minerals supply

Sustainable development involves meeting the needs of human societies while maintaining viable biological and physical Earth systems. The needs include minerals: metals, fuels, industrial and construction materials. There will continue to be considerable demand for virgin mineral resources, even if levels of recycling and efficiency of use are optimal, and rates of population growth and globalisation decrease significantly. This article aims to stimulate debate on strategic issues for minerals supply. While the world has considerable stocks of mineral resources overall, international considerations of the environmental and social aspects of sustainable development are beginning to result in limitations on where mining will be conducted and what types of deposits will be mined. Current and emerging trends favour large mines in parts of the world where mining can be conducted within acceptable limits of environmental and social impact. Finding new deposits that meet such criteria will be all the more challenging given a disturbing global decline in the rate of discovery of major economic resources over the last decade, and the decreasing land area available for exploration and mining.
To attract responsible exploration and mining, governments of mining nations will need to provide: regional-scale geo-scientific datasets as required to attract and guide future generations of exploration; resource access through multiple and sequential land use regimes, and frameworks for dealing with indigenous peoples' issues; and arrangements for consideration of mining proposals and regulation of mines that ensure responsible management of environmental and social issues.
The minerals industry will need to continue to pursue advances in technologies for exploration, mining, processing, waste management and rehabilitation, and in public reporting of environmental and social performance.     

Australian gold exploration 1976–2003

The Australian gold industry has grown enormously over the past 25 years. Australian mine production of gold in 2003 was 284 t, similar to that of the USA, and behind South Africa, the world's largest gold-producing nation. Gold is Australia's third largest commodity export, worth an estimated A$5.3 billion in 2003–2004.Underpinning the industry is a solid resource base that has grown by successful exploration over the past three decades. Australia ranks third in the world after South Africa and the USA in terms of its economic gold resources. The growth in Australia's gold resources has been underpinned by high levels of exploration and innovations in gold processing technologies, specifically the development of carbon-based gold extraction methods that allowed commercial treatment of low grade ores. It has been supported by advances in gold exploration methods, especially exploration geochemistry.New resources were added at existing deposits and new deposits were found, including several of world class (>100 t contained gold), in each decade over the 25-year-period but resource growth since the 1990s has been dominated by brownfields additions rather than new discoveries. Average costs of discovery have now plateauxed at around A$20–25/oz, after falling sharply during the early to mid-1990s when a number of new discoveries were made, notably in the Yandal belt in Western Australia and the Lachlan Fold Belt in New South Wales. Current gold reserve/production and gold EDR/production ratios are 12 and 19 years, respectively, and indicate that the long-term future of the Australian gold industry depends on continued high levels of exploration and the discovery of new deposits to replace mines that are currently being depleted.     

Metalliferous sediments in the Atlantis II Deep—Assessing the geological and economic resource potential and legal constraints

Projected increases in demand and thus increasing metal prices have brought the exploration and exploitation of marine mineral resources back into focus. The Atlantis II Deep, located in the central Red Sea between Saudi Arabia and Sudan, is one of the largest marine sulfide deposits known, with high concentrations of metals such as zinc, copper, silver and gold. However, little is known about the economic potential of marine minerals as well as the legal constraints. Our geological assessment shows that the deep is similar in grades and scale to large land-based deposits. Its economic potential is far from negligible. The total present value of possible gross revenues for the four metals zinc, copper, silver and gold ranges from 3.03 to 5.29 billion US$, depending on the assumptions made concerning future price development, mass calculation and discount rate. From a legal perspective, a general duty to cooperate in the exploration and exploitation of non-living resources located in disputed maritime areas is identified in both customary international law and in UNCLOS. It is submitted that a joint development agreement is one means of ensuring compliance with this duty in general and in the case of the Atlantis II Deep in particular.     

A review of the PGM industry,deposit models and exploration practices: Implications for Australia's PGM potential

Australia is prospective for platinum group metal (PGM) mineralisation (in particular primary magmatic reef, primary magmatic by-product, late magmatic and hydrothermal, and alluvial placer type) but its known PGM endowment is negligible compared to that of South Africa, Russia, the USA and Canada. Most Australian PGM projects are operated by mid-cap or junior companies and form part of larger, more diverse project portfolios held by these explorers. Most projects were ‘hot’ while market conditions were favourable. However, as other metals became ‘fashionable’ and market conditions for PGM changed, so did the focus of these companies. Pure PGM companies are rare in Australia. The search for and development of PGM-only deposits in Australia are high risk business activities. No new primary PGM deposits have been discovered since the mid to late 1980s and none of the significant deposits that were discovered or evaluated in the 1980s have been mined. This review suggests that at least several A$10 million but more likely several A$100 million were sunk into PGM exploration and development projects but none advanced to the mining stage. The viability of Australian PGM projects is very sensitive to (1) metal prices, (2) the US$/A$ exchange rate, and (3) large capital expenditure requirements relative to the small size of Australian PGM-only deposits. Most PGM-only projects were initiated at times of high PGM prices. However, advanced exploration, feasibility studies and project development always lagged behind the price booms. South Africa, Russia and Canada contain approximately 98% of the known global PGM reserves. This situation has a very negative effect on the Australian PGM industry as the well-endowed nations continue to receive the lion's share of exploration spend and new projects.     

US uranium deposits: A geostatistical model

The frequency distributions of both grade and size of metal deposits may be well approximated by lognormal distribution functions. Using data on presently viable deposits and a simplified function which links production cost to deposit grade and size, a bivariate lognormal deposit grade/size distribution may be calibrated for a given geological environment. Exploration is introduced by assuming that the proportion discovered of the potential uranium reserve available at or below a given production cost can be represented by a function of the average deposit size and the unit exploration expenditure. As output the model derives estimates of total reserves linked to maximum production costs and to exploration expenditure where the latter may be expressed either as expenditure per lb of mineral discovered or as a given percentage of operating profit. The model is offered as a basis for discussion, and the conclusions are tentative.     

Geological and technical characterisation of Iscehisar (Afyon-Turkey) marble deposits and the impact of marble waste on environmental pollution

Turkey, due to its location in the Alpine-Himalayan belt, has numerous marble deposits. More than 250 marble types with different colours and patterns have been produced from these deposits and one hundred of these are well known around the world. One such well-known marble type is Afyon-Iscehisar. Afyon-Iscehisar is Palaeozoic in age and has been quarried since the era of the Roman empire. The Afyon region is known as one of the most important marble production and processing centres in Turkey. The Afyon province, which possesses 3.5% of exploitable marble reserves (3,872,000,000 tonne) in Turkey, yields 9% of the total marble block production. The 409 marble processing plants in Afyon produce 19% of the total slab in Turkey. As a result of marble production activities, approximately 340,000 tonne of marble waste has accumulated in the area. While some of these unshaped marble blocks are re-used and returned to the economy, the majority are discarded. There are two waste marble storage fields located in the Afyon-Iscehisar region. All of the solid and fine-grained marble waste is stored in waste marble storage fields in Susuz Bo?az? and in the nearby Iscehisar marble quarries. The ecological effects of the marble waste, which were once discharged everywhere and exhibited visual pollution, has now been reduced to a minimal level.     

WORLD ENERGY RESOURCES - LIMITS FROM TODAY'S GEOLOGICAL STANDPOINT

World fossil energy resources are estimated at about 12,500 times 10⁹ tons of coal equivalent (t.c.e.) of which 900 times 10⁹ t.c.e. are classed as presently recoverable reserves. Future exploration will transform a substantial part of the resources into reserves. Coal is by far the dominant fossil energy. Oilshales and tarsands represent a large energy potential, whose utilization depends on a high energy price level and progress in production technologies. Limits in the availability of oil and gas are visible now for the first time. Low-cost, high-grade uranium reserves are also limited. However, there are large amounts of low-grade uranium resources, which might become recoverable in the future. The use of geothermal energy is currently troubled by problems of technology, costs and environment.     

New mine capacity from yet-to-be found copper deposits

The copper industry in the USA is declining, but exploration for copper has been particularly promising in western Montana. The potential copper mine capacity of the area was estimated by using an interdisciplinary geological-economical assessment technique that categorizes deposits on the basis of development probability. Development probability is quantified and aggregated into potential new mine supply curves, which summarize resource potential of the region. The results suggest that copper resources in Montana and elsewhere are potentially large and that these resources probably will be mined at higher copper prices. This mineral assessment technique increases the usefulness of traditional methods for planners and policy makers.     

Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

‘Reserves’ as a leading indicator to future mineral production

The factors which influence the size and value of mineral reserves are discussed and an example is given of a more rigorous system for measuring supplies of non-renewable resources.The extent to which reserves and resources of minerals can be used as leading indicators of future mineral production is examined and examples of the dangers of over-reliance on this factor are described.Key aspects, such as confidence limits, differences in the economic exploitability, the dynamic nature of reserves, and their variability in grade, are examined in some detail using the South African coal industry as an example.     

我国矿产资源的合理开发利用

我国是世界上矿产资源总量丰富、种类较齐全的国家之一。由于人口众多,矿产资源人均占有量不到世界人均占有量的1/2。作者根据中国的矿情提出立足国内,合理利用国内、国外两种资源;增产与节约并重,提高矿产品深加工,加强综合利用,重视二次资源的回收,增加地勘投资,加强地勘工作。