Shortfalls in minerals investments

The international minerals industry continues to have a substantial investment shortfall. The widening exploration and mineral development gaps, not only in the lesser developed countries but also in the developed nations, are sowing the seeds for future mineral supply disruptions and conflicts. Mutuality of interests demands concerted initiatives, individual as well as collective, to reverse the investment trends established by international mineral finance and the multinational corporations in order to pave the way for secure mineral supplies in the future at acceptable prices.     

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.     

A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?

This paper develops a stylized supply–demand model for a mineral/nonrenewable commodity. It embodies important distinctions between short-run and long-run mineral supply and the derived demand for minerals as intermediate goods in production sectors with differing intensities of use. This framework is used to address the question: under what conditions might one expect to observe super cycles (i.e. cycles with a period of 20–70 years) in minerals prices? A plausible time path for GDP$GDP$ growth and the structural transformation that accompanies economic development in an emerging region is specified. Using these drivers and reasonable supply and demand parameters, price dynamics are simulated. The result is an asymmetric price cycle with a peak price that is about 250% above trend and an expansion phase that lasts for about 20 years. Thus, this simple model is capable of producing a single cycle with a frequency and amplitude in the range estimated in the empirical literature on super cycles. As other regions reach the development ‘take-off' phase, additional super cycles should emerge.     

A mineral commodity life-cycle?: Relationships between production,price and economic resources

The production, price and economic resources profiles of a number of mineral commodities are examined and consideration is given to the theory that such profiles can be related to one another within the framework of a life-cycle model of development. While the behaviour of some of the commodities examined appears to lend support to the theory, that of others reveals fundamental problems with its underlying assumptions. It is concluded that, while the demand for a mineral commodity in specific uses may indeed manifest cyclical tendencies, as a general behavioural theory and as a basis for resource estimation the life-cycle model applied to minerals is of little value.     

The geographic concentration of world mineral supplies

Mineral reserves are unevenly and erratically distributed throughout the world; those countries which were intensively explored in the past — the USA, Canada, the USSR, Australia, South Africa, and a limited number of Asian, African, and Latin American countries — control a large share of many of the industrially important metallic minerals. Current attitudes towards exploration and the mining industry in both the developed and the less developed countries should clearly encourage rather than discourage new exploration. Given an increase in exploration, new reserves may well be found in previously unexplored areas, but any major increase in world mineral supplies will probably come from mining very low- grade deposits and developing new methods of mining and processing non-conventional ores. While it is vital to increase research and development in exploration techniques and mining and processing technology, it is also critical to maintain current levels of consumption and trade by reversing the trend towards trade restriction on the part of some of the less developed countries who are important mineral exporters.     

Indonesia's mineral resources: Performance and prospects

This paper discusses the present position and future prospects of mineral exploration and exploitation in Indonesia. It places the industry within the economic and political context of the country as a whole and considers the development of government policy towards the sector. Although the mineral resources of Indonesia are believed to be vast, the performance of the industry in the past has been erratic. The relative political stability of the last few years, combined with rising prices, has encouraged the opening up of new mines, and has also emphasised the need for more local processing of those minerals that are produced. At present, income from oil provides most of the government revenue and consequently the prospects of this sector are critically important for the nation's future. Increased diversification can, however, be expected in the next few years as the resources of tin, bauxite, nickel, copper, coal and many other products are developed. Given a favourable political and economic climate, Indonesia could be one of the world's major mineral producers by the end of the century.     

The Tucson Mineral Show and the market for collector minerals: The potential for artisanal and small scale miners

Minerals that are sold to collectors are often produced by artisanal and small scale miners in many developing countries. The market for collector minerals is not well understood by most government agencies or NGOs but has a large impact on the artisanal and small miners that have the opportunity to produce these minerals because of the high prices that can be realized. This paper describes the collector mineral market that is held annually in Tucson, Arizona, that analyzes the competitive forces that affect the profitability of the mineral dealers at the show and describes potential methods for artisanal and small scale miners to participate successfully in the show. Most collector minerals produced by artisanal and small-scale miners are valued for their aesthetic qualities instead of mineral content. The 43 shows that operate during the first two weeks in February make up the largest gem and mineral show in the world, the Tucson Show. The Tucson Mineral Show is a subgroup of six shows that specialize primarily in collector minerals.There are several competitive forces at the Tucson Mineral Show that can affect the profit potential of dealers that participate in the show. These forces include potential entrants, suppliers, buyers, substitutes, and rivalry among existing competitors. New entrants face several barriers to entering the market place including the supply side economies of scale, demand side benefits of scale, and capital requirements. Because of these barriers, the cost of doing business and the way that promoters organize and manage the shows, it is difficult for artisanal and small scale miners to enter the show and compete with established dealers. However, with support from entities such as local governments, non-profit organizations, and international organizations the artisanal and small scale miners have the potential to have their minerals sold at the Tucson Shows for prices that would be greater than what can be achieved in the local market. Methods to help the artisanal and small scale miners compete include direct sales or consignments to retail dealers, tailgating, development of sales co-operatives, and the creation of an artisanal/small scale mineral show.     

Metalliferous sediments in the Atlantis II Deep—Assessing the geological and economic resource potential and legal constraints

Projected increases in demand and thus increasing metal prices have brought the exploration and exploitation of marine mineral resources back into focus. The Atlantis II Deep, located in the central Red Sea between Saudi Arabia and Sudan, is one of the largest marine sulfide deposits known, with high concentrations of metals such as zinc, copper, silver and gold. However, little is known about the economic potential of marine minerals as well as the legal constraints. Our geological assessment shows that the deep is similar in grades and scale to large land-based deposits. Its economic potential is far from negligible. The total present value of possible gross revenues for the four metals zinc, copper, silver and gold ranges from 3.03 to 5.29 billion US$, depending on the assumptions made concerning future price development, mass calculation and discount rate. From a legal perspective, a general duty to cooperate in the exploration and exploitation of non-living resources located in disputed maritime areas is identified in both customary international law and in UNCLOS. It is submitted that a joint development agreement is one means of ensuring compliance with this duty in general and in the case of the Atlantis II Deep in particular.     

猪肉价格周期波动的时空差异特征及影响因素研究

我国作为猪肉生产大国、消费大国,猪肉价格波动事关普通百姓生活。利用2001—2019年猪肉价格省级面板数据,对猪肉价格长期波动的空间差异性进行了分析。结果表明:①从我国八大经济区及调入区、调出区猪肉价格区域差异测度结果来看,北部沿海区域内各省份猪肉价格差异最大,东北区域和长江中游区域差异较小;同时从猪肉价格差异贡献率来看,区域内差异贡献率更大。②从猪肉价格波动时空演进测度结果来看,地区间差异明显存在,同时各省份之间空间集聚性呈现出波动状态,表现出先减弱后增强的长期趋势。③从对猪肉价格周期性变化规律分析结果来看,价格波动存在明显的周期性,“猪瘟”、重大疫情等突发因素短期影响作用较大,而常规因素的影响才是价格波动真正推手。④在所筛选的猪肉价格常规影响因素中,育肥猪配合饲料价格、仔猪价格、地区生产总值引起猪肉价格差异的作用显著,且育肥猪配合饲料价格对猪肉价格差异影响程度最大。     

GENERATING STREAMFLOW SEQUENCES WITH TREND AND CYCLICAL MOVEMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A first-order autoregressive model had been modified with the trend and cyclical movements to generate the streamflow sequences. Three main portions were involved in this modified model, i.e., six-year cycle with trend changing; six-year cycle without trend changing; and both annual and six-year cycles with trend changing. The synthetic sequences of monthly streamflow sequences were compared with the historical records obtained from the Kissimmee River basin by using the Chi-Square test for goodness-of-fit. The results indicated that the newly proposed model has a better solution than the original model because the trend and cyclical movements involved in generating sequences are much closer to the historical records.     

Ranking countries for minerals exploration

This paper presents the results of a survey of multinational mining companies pertaining to the ranking of countries for non-fuel minerals exploration in the early 1990s. It ranks countries in order of greatest exploration interest in the early 1990s, as well as countries that have geologic potential but unacceptable investment climates. It provides a list of priority commodities for exploration, the criteria for exploration levels, critical and negotiable factors in selecting countries for exploration, and the investment climate ratings of countries where exploration is probable in the early 1990s. The results of the survey indicate that major minerals exploration activities are concentrated in a small number of countries. Political and economic reforms around the world should increase the number of countries receiving active private sector minerals exploration in the 1990s.     

Metal prices and the business cycle

Metal price fluctuations have recently been of interest not only because of their cyclical volatility but also of their interaction with business cycles. A related issue is whether metal prices move together sufficiently to collectively reflect macroeconomic influences. Correlation or the tendency for prices to move together has been termed “comovement”, where the commonality in prices reflects the tendency of commodity markets to respond to common business cycle and trend factors. Metal prices are known to respond to macroeconomic influences and the latter might well explain the common factor which causes them to move together. Our goal is to provide an estimate of the common factor in metal prices and to relate this factor to important macroeconomic influences. The prices we study are for aluminum, copper, tin, lead and zinc; the macroeconomic variables include industrial production, consumer prices, interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. Our results confirm that the common factor in metal prices can be related to such macroeconomic influences.     

Resource diplomacy in a Canadian perspective

Concern for the supply of resources—renewable and nonrenewable—has been evident during the 1970s. All countries seek to increase the economic and social returns from the exploration, processing and distribution of minerals so as to improve the quality of life of their people. Proper resource management is imperative because of the interdependence of the mineral sector with other leading sectors of the economy and also because of the importance of minerals in the web of international economics. This paper emphasises the significance of recent international events as they affect the mineral industry and the Canadian position in the ever changing world of resource diplomacy.     

Harnessing the bonanza: economic liberalization and capacity building in the mineral sector

Over the past decade many developing and transition economies have liberalized their investment regimes for mining and privatized formerly state-owned mineral assets. In response, these economies have witnessed increased foreign investment in exploration and development, growth in the number and diversity of mineral projects, and the opening up of new channels for harnessing increased economic and social benefits from development in the minerals sector. The restructuring of fiscal and regulatory regimes to encourage foreign investment, and the associated influx of mining capital, technology and skills, is transforming traditional relationships between mining firms, local communities and the government. This transformation necessitates a re-evaluation of the most effective policy approaches to capture increased economic and social benefits from mineral production. This article considers effective mechanisms for improving the capacity of developing and transition countries to maximize the economic and social benefits of mineral production. Common challenges associated with minerals economies are reviewed. Consideration is given to the opportunities for harnessing foreign direct investment and the possibilities for creating new partnerships between local communities, industry, government, and multilateral development agencies through social investment projects. The article concludes with a series of recommendations for the design and implementation of policy approaches towards harnessing mineral production for economic and social benefit following the liberalization of investment regimes for mining.     

青海省矿产资源综合开发利用探析

作为我国有色金属、贵金属、盐类与能源等矿产的主要蕴藏地之一的青海省,在经济发展的四大支柱——石油和天然气、盐湖矿产、有色金属矿产和水电资源产业中,有三项为矿产资源,为推进全省国民经济和社会快速发展提供了强有力的支撑,综合开发利用这些资源对全省经济社会发展具有重要意义.通过对青海省矿产资源综合开发利用的全面分析,找出存在的突出问题及其原因,提出相应的对策和建议.     

External Debt and Prospects for Minerals-exporting Developing Countries

This article examines the extent to which selected non-fuel minerals-exporting developing countries can rely on their traditional source of hard-currency earnings to promote future economic growth and to facilitate payments for interest and amortization of accumulated debt. The countries (and minerals) under consideration are: Chile (copper), Bolivia (tin) and Jamaica (bauxite). Incorporated into the study are sets of alternative assumptions regarding global demand for these minerals to the end of the century, market shares, mineral prices, external debt levels and interest rates. More specifically, the study examines the likely ranges of future export revenues of these countries from these minerals in the years 1990 and 2000, and the role that these future export revenues may play in servicing external debt.     

The marginal cost of public funds of mineral and energy taxes in Peru

We estimate the Marginal Cost of Public Funds (MCPF) for Peru using a detailed computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Revenues from all major sources (including taxes on factors of production, natural resources such as energy and minerals, consumption, and imports) are examined. Our focus is on the efficiency implications of mineral and energy taxes, given their importance to Peruvian public finance. The primary data are from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) as modified to include detailed tax information from the Peruvian Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Peruvian Internal Revenue Service. Consistent with the theories of public finance, we find that the MCPF is greater for activities that face high or widely varying tax rates. The taxes on energy and mineral activities represent a clear illustration of this relationship. The results presented in this paper indicate opportunities to improved efficiency in the current tax mix, and also indicate the financing costs of proposed expenditures that would be funded with taxes on energy and natural resources.     

我国矿产资源的合理开发利用

我国是世界上矿产资源总量丰富、种类较齐全的国家之一。由于人口众多,矿产资源人均占有量不到世界人均占有量的1/2。作者根据中国的矿情提出立足国内,合理利用国内、国外两种资源;增产与节约并重,提高矿产品深加工,加强综合利用,重视二次资源的回收,增加地勘投资,加强地勘工作。     

International mining taxation issues and comparisons

This paper presents the quantitative results of recent research on Canada's minerals and metals industry, and its international competitiveness for mineral investment. The information and analysis presented are derived from the work of a Canadian government-industry task force that was created in 1991, under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Working Group on the Mineral Industry (IGWG). Much of this work deals with mining taxation in several Canadian provinces. More importantly, an attempt is made to evaluate the total tax burden that the mining industry must bear, on a project basis, at all levels from exploration through refining operations in many important competitor countries. While the focus of the paper is on an international comparison of mining taxation, some non-tax issues relating to Canada's competitiveness for mineral investment are addressed .     

Mining and sustainable development: considerations for minerals supply

Sustainable development involves meeting the needs of human societies while maintaining viable biological and physical Earth systems. The needs include minerals: metals, fuels, industrial and construction materials. There will continue to be considerable demand for virgin mineral resources, even if levels of recycling and efficiency of use are optimal, and rates of population growth and globalisation decrease significantly. This article aims to stimulate debate on strategic issues for minerals supply. While the world has considerable stocks of mineral resources overall, international considerations of the environmental and social aspects of sustainable development are beginning to result in limitations on where mining will be conducted and what types of deposits will be mined. Current and emerging trends favour large mines in parts of the world where mining can be conducted within acceptable limits of environmental and social impact. Finding new deposits that meet such criteria will be all the more challenging given a disturbing global decline in the rate of discovery of major economic resources over the last decade, and the decreasing land area available for exploration and mining.
To attract responsible exploration and mining, governments of mining nations will need to provide: regional-scale geo-scientific datasets as required to attract and guide future generations of exploration; resource access through multiple and sequential land use regimes, and frameworks for dealing with indigenous peoples' issues; and arrangements for consideration of mining proposals and regulation of mines that ensure responsible management of environmental and social issues.
The minerals industry will need to continue to pursue advances in technologies for exploration, mining, processing, waste management and rehabilitation, and in public reporting of environmental and social performance.