未来三年,中国的福利蓝图

2012年,中国人均GDP将达到4000美元,经济水平进入中等发达。但今天的中国福利水平还不及100年前的英国。填补福利空白的经济条件已具备,缓行久拖,潜伏着社会动荡的危险。未来三年,中国应迅速建立与中等经济发展水平相适应的普惠公正的国家福利体系——就业容量超过1000万人,服务对象惠及所有人群,财政资金超过5000亿,并且很快向10000亿发展。历史上人均GDP达到1000美元时发达国家的福利标准,是这一蓝图的重要参照。     

未来三年，中国的福利蓝图

2012年．中国人均GDP将达到4000美元．经济水平进入中等发达。但今天的中国福利水平还不及100年前的英国。填补福利空白的经济条件已具备．缓行久拖．潜伏着社会动荡的危险。未来三年．中国应迅速建立与中等经济发展水平相适应的普惠公正的国家福利体系——就业容量超过1000万人．服务对象惠及所有人群．财政资金超过5000亿．并且很快向10000亿发展。历史上人均GDP达到1000美元时发达国家的福利标准．是这一蓝图的重要参照。     

攀枝花市环境质量变化与经济发展相关性分析——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)特征

根据环境库兹涅茨曲线原理,选取攀枝花市2006~2016年的经济与环境数据,运用Eviews软件对经济因子与环境因子进行相关性分析,建立了模拟经济因子与环境因子之间动态回归模型。研究结果表明,攀枝花市环境空气质量、工业废气首要污染物二氧化硫排放量、废水排放量和人均GDP均呈现显著相关性,符合库兹涅茨曲线倒"U"或倒"N"模型,拐点均出现在人均GDP达60 391元的2012年前后,说明攀枝花市政府严格执行了各项环境保护政策,环境监管力度和环保投入也日益加大,当地环境质量得到大幅改善,经济发展与环境质量改善实现双赢,环保效益日益显现。     

烟台市水环境污染与经济发展的关系研究

对烟台市2001~2017年水环境质量与经济发展的系列数据进行收集、整理及分析后,建立以环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)及其相关理论为基础的烟台市人均GDP与烟台市水环境污染指标的计量模型。对结果进行分析后发现:烟台市工业污水排放量对数值与人均GDP对数值间关系呈倒“N”形曲线,烟台市城乡居民生活污水排放量与人均GDP间关系大致呈倒“U”形曲线。烟台市的水环境问题在一段时间内有所缓解,但随着经济发展有出现新问题的可能,为了持续对污水排放进行防治,烟台市应继续采取因地制宜的水环境保护措施。     

代表自发秩序结晶式拓展的龙文明

1999年,中国人均GDP1000美元,韬光养晦有所作为;2009年,中国人均GDP4000美元。高速经济增长能持续多久?从经济的约束条件来回答,中国的高速增长没有问题,可持续性也很强。按此势头下去,2050年的中国将达到中等发达国家水平,经济总量与美国持平。这时候的中国要用什么样的新原则和世界交往?要承担什么样的责任?对于人类到底能贡献什么?预测未来,历史是基础。龙是中国的图腾,象征着中华文明结晶状拓展的方式,自发、和谐的融合是其灵魂。     

代表自发秩序结晶式拓展的龙文明

1999年．中国人均GDP1000美元．韬光养晦有所作为：2009年．中国人均GDP4000美元。高速经济增长能持续多久？从经济的约束条件来回答．中国的高速增长没有问题．可持续性也很强。按此势头下去，2050年的中国将达到中等发达国家水平．经济总量与美国持平。这时候的中国要用什么样的新原则和世界交往？要承担什么样的责任？对于人类到底能贡献什么？预测未来．历史是基础。龙是中国的图腾．象征着中华文明结晶状拓展的方式．自发、和谐的融合是其灵魂。     

重庆市环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与分析

随着经济持续发展,西部地区环境与经济矛盾日益突出,为研究西部地区经济与环境关系,本文以重庆市为例,选取1990年~2011年共22年的经济指标(人均GDP)与污染物(废水、工业废气、工业固体废弃物等)排放量为环境指标,建立经济与环境指标的协同演化模型,绘制环境库兹涅茨曲线并对重庆市经济与环境协同发展关系进行研究;结果表明:重庆市人均GDP与工业废水排放量之间呈现明显EKC关系,其转折点为2005年,即人均GDP为10982元;重庆市人均GDP与工业SO2排放量及与工业烟尘排放量和工业固体废物排放的良性关系出现和将要出现在2010年和2015年;重庆市人均GDP与总体的工业"三废"排放量之间呈现出明显的倒"U"EKC关系,2006年以后,随着人均GDP的增加,工业"三废"排放量不断减少,2011年时,工业"三废"排放量趋于平缓。由此也说明,重庆市工业"三废"排放量有明显好转的趋势。     

治淮资金哪里来

淮河水污染的治理,最大的问题是钱从哪里来?西方发达国家着手改善环境时人均GDP为8000美元,有雄厚的经济基础。德国治理莱茵河,美国治理特拉华河,英国治理泰晤士河,全是依靠政府的财政预算内拨款。然而,目前中国的人均GDP不过1000美元,财政预算内用于基础建设的资金本来就十分有限,治淮的资金     

牡丹江市经济发展与水环境污染关系研究

通过对牡丹江市1994—2011年经济与环境两种类型的数据进行相关分析,得到了与典型经济指标人均GDP相关的水环境指标。进一步对水环境指标和经济指标进行了计量模型曲线估计,通过比较不同模型的拟合优度、F检验和t检验,筛选出不同环境指标的计量模型;通过绘制牡丹江流域经济环境计量模型模拟曲线,对牡丹江经济环境计量模型进行了分析,发现不同的水环境指标与经济指标具有不同类型的计量模型,并对模型模拟结果进行了分析,为牡丹江基于水环境保护的经济发展政策和管理提供依据。     

基于熵权可拓模型的土地利用规划环境影响评价——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例

土地利用规划环境影响评价对配置土地资源起到显著的优化作用,可为新一轮的土地利用规划修编提供科学基础。针对黄河三角洲高效生态经济区土地开发与利用状况,运用DPSIR(Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response)模型构建土地利用规划环境影响评价指标体系,结合熵权法和可拓学理论构建土地利用规划环境影响评价模型,分析自规划实施以来(2006—2015年)该区域土地利用与环境质量的变化过程。基于分析结果,对该地区规划目标年(2020年)的土地利用程度和环境质量水平进行了预测。结果表明:自新一轮土地利用规划实施以来,黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的自然环境质量整体上呈正向发展趋势,但人均水资源量、人均耕地面积、人均工业废气排放量等指标是影响该地区环境质量进一步改善的主要短板因素。     

浙江省环境污染与经济发展关系的实证研究

本文在环境库兹涅茨曲线假设基础上,采用1991—2014年浙江省环境和经济数据,运用回归模型对其环境污染与经济发展的关系进行实证检验。结果表明:浙江工业废水、工业废气、工业SO2排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量均符合EKC假设,其中工业SO2和工业废水人均排放量与人均GDP呈倒U形关系,拐点分别出现在2005年与2010年;工业废气排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量尚处于倒U形左侧上升阶段,其中工业固体废弃物人均产生量已接近拐点。而生活污水排放量与EKC假设并不相符,人均生活污水排放量与人均GDP呈单调递增的线形关系。对EKC驱动因子的分析表明,加强政府环境治理,以不断完善的环境法规推动产业结构升级调整,以持续的技术进步与创新促进关键行业节能减排,有利于克服规模效应,推动浙江环境污染与经济发展的关系早日实现解耦。     

Eco-health evaluation for the Shanghai metropolitan area during the recent industrial transformation (1990-2003)

Shanghai is a cosmopolitan city and one of the most important economic centers in China, but is saddled with serious environmental problems resulting from a recent industrial transformation. This paper examines the interactive relationships between economic growth, eco-efficiency of urban metabolism, and environmental performance of the Shanghai metropolitan area since the 1990s using 15 indicators. This study has revealed an enhanced eco-efficiency of water and energy use as well as an improved overall environmental quality in the central urban districts of Shanghai. Both TGDP (total GDP) and GDP per capita increased rapidly at the annual rate of 16.28% and 15.91%, respectively. In contrast, energy consumed per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (ECG), water consumed per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WCG), wastewater discharged per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WWDG), and waste gases emitted per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WGEG) decreased at the annual rate of 9.34%, 10.69%, 14.57%, and 8.52%, respectively. The rapid decline in ECG, WCG, WWDG, and WGEG indicates an enhanced eco-efficiency of urban metabolism. However, uncontrolled emission of wastes from domestic instead of industrial sources adversely affected the overall environmental quality. In addition, suburban areas have undergone rapid economic growth at the cost of human health deterioration, as measured by mortalities and relative mortality ratios of three major diseases (tumor, respiratory disease, and trauma/toxicosis). With Shanghai serving as the "locomotive" driving the economy of the Yangtze River Basin, effective pollution control policies and a network of regional coordination are urgently needed in the globalization and ecological security of the entire area.     

Rural industries and water pollution in China

Water pollution from small rural industries is a serious problem throughout China. Over half of all river sections monitored for water quality are rated as being unsafe for human contact, and this pollution is estimated to cost several per cent of GDP. While China has some of the toughest environmental protection laws in the world, the implementation of these laws in rural areas is not effective. This paper explains the reasons for this implementation gap. It argues that the factors that have underpinned the economic success of rural industry are precisely the same factors that cause water pollution from rural industry to remain such a serious problem in China. This means that the control of rural water pollution is not simply a technical problem of designing a more appropriate governance system, or finding better policy instruments or more funding. Instead, solutions lie in changes in the model that underpins rural development in China.     

哈密市大气环境库兹涅茨曲线特征分析

以哈密市1988—2006年经济增长（GDP）和大气环境质量数据为研究对象，分析各类典型大气污染指标与人均GDP之间的关系，建立哈密市大气环境污染物排放浓度与人均GDP增长之间的回归模型，结果表明：哈密市SO2、NO2、TSP排放浓度与人均GDP增长之间基本符合标准的倒“U”型的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征。     

Review and challenges of policies of environmental protection and sustainable development in China

China is confronted with the dual task of developing its national economy and protecting its ecological environment. Since the 1980s, China's policies on environmental protection and sustainable development have experienced five changes: (1) progression from the adoption of environmental protection as a basic state policy to the adoption of sustainable development strategy; (2) changing focus from pollution control to ecological conservation equally; (3) shifting from end-of-pipe treatment to source control; (4) moving from point source treatment to regional environmental governance; and (5) a turn away from administrative management-based approaches and towards a legal means and economic instruments-based approach. Since 1992, China has set down sustainable development as a basic national strategy. However, environmental pollution and ecological degradation in China have continued to be serious problems and have inflicted great damage on the economy and quality of life. The beginning of the 21st century is a critical juncture for China's efforts towards sustaining rapid economic development, intensifying environmental protection efforts, and curbing ecological degradation. As the largest developing country, China's policies on environmental protection and sustainable development will be of primary importance not only for China, but also the world. Realizing a completely well-off society by the year 2020 is seen as a crucial task by the Chinese government and an important goal for China's economic development in the new century, however, attaining it would require a four-fold increase over China's year 2000 GDP. Therefore, speeding up economic development is a major mission during the next two decades and doing so will bring great challenges in controlling depletion of natural resources and environmental pollution. By taking a critical look at the development of Chinese environmental policy, we try to determine how best to coordinate the relationship between the environment and the economy in order to improve quality of life and the sustainability of China's resources and environment. Examples of important measures include: adjustment of economic structure, reform of energy policy, development of environmental industry, pollution prevention and ecological conservation, capacity building, and international cooperation and public participation.     

基于聚类分析的我国各地化石能源足迹与经济发展定量研究

利用改进后的化石能源足迹公式计算了2000—2009年我国30个地区的人均化石能源足迹,并分别对2000年和2009年中国各地区的数据进行聚类分析,发现我国地区人均化石能源足迹由无明显地域特征转变为东部高于中西部,经济发达地区高于欠发达地区,且能源使用效率和经济发展水平间联系逐渐加强。通过对不同类别代表性地区人均化石能源足迹的分析判断,以北京、上海和广东为代表的发达地区化石能源消耗增长开始趋于缓和甚至出现小幅下降。     

Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960

Between 1960 and 2000, Japan's real GDP grew 620%. However, its consumption of copper increased only 345%, thanks to a 38% decline in the country's intensity of copper use. In light of concerns today over the possible impact of future economic development in China, India, and other developing countries on the long-run availability of mineral resources, this study proposes to explore the causes for this dramatic decline in the Japanese intensity of copper use.For some time, we have known that the intensity of metal use within a country depends on its level of economic development, usually measured by per capita income, as well as on technological change, long-run price trends, and other factors whose influence varies, more or less, with time. This study finds that rising per capita income has increased the intensity of copper use in Japan over the entire period examined. Moreover, this positive effect is expected to continue until per capita income—$44,830 in 2000—reaches $53,000. Thereafter, further advances will tend to reduce the intensity of copper use. Conversely, new copper-saving technologies and other time-related variables have on average reduced the intensity of copper use by 2.9% a year, an amount sufficient not only to offset the positive effects of growing per capita income but also to reduce intensity of use by 38%.     

2035年美丽中国建设目标及路径机制研究

建设美丽中国,建设人与自然和谐共生的现代化,是中国特色社会主义现代化建设的重要基础与主要内容。本文通过文献分析、对标分析、模型预测等方法,识别了美丽中国建设的科学内涵及特征要求,分析美丽中国建设中长期面临的形势,基于到2035年达到中等发达国家水平、人均GDP翻一番的目标,对标发达国家以及浙江、广东等国内先进地区,构建了美丽中国建设的目标指标体系框架,并从绿色发展、气候变化、生态环境质量、环境治理体系与治理能力等方面,设计美丽中国建设生态环境保护的总体框架与主要路径,提出美丽中国建设的规划建议。