WATER EXCHANGES: TOOLS TO BEAT EL NIÑO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Using a case study of the Yakima River Valley in Washington State, this paper shows that relatively simple tools can be used to forecast the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on water supplies to irrigated agriculture, that this information could be used to estimate the significantly shifted probability distribution of water shortages in irrigated agriculture during El Niño episodes, and that these shifted probabilities can be used to estimate the value of exchanges of water between crops to relieve some of the adverse consequences of such shortages under western water law. Further, recently devised water‐trading tools, while not completely free under western water law to respond to forecasted El Niño episodes (ocean circulation patterns), are currently being employed during declared drought to reduce the devastating effects of water shortages in junior water districts on high valued perennial crops. Additional institutional flexibility is needed to take full advantage of climate forecasting, but even current tools clearly could prove useful in controlling the effects of climate variability in irrigated agriculture. Analysis shows the significant benefit of temporarily transferring or renting water rights from low‐value to high‐value crops, based on El Niño forecasts.     

PERSISTENT CONFLICTS OVER TIMBER PRODUCTION AND WATERSHED MANAGEMENP: A PROBLEM ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Most forest lands are managed for multiple purposes, among them timber production and water supply. Conflicts often arise in such cases because logging is perceived as a threat to water quality. These conflicts can result from uncertain factual information, from differences in underlying social values, or from imbalances in the incidence of costs and benefits. Resulting conificts may go unresolved because existing institutional structures fail to address the real roots of the dispute. When such conificts go unresolved, benefits are often lost, and social, political, and managerial costs are high. This study found that the roots of conifict may lie in value differences or in interest impacts, but attention may be focused inappropriately and unproductively on factual issues. It suggests that at least some long-standing disputes in the management of forested watersheds may be resolved by identifying the root causes of these disputes and choosing those actions, whether they be changes in management guidelines or altered institutional structures, which are appropriate to those causes.     

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.     

PATTERN OF GROUND-WATER LEVEL DECLINE IN THE HIGH PLAINS AQUIFER NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Ground-water level decline patterns in parts of Nebraska conform to the circular island concept of Bredehoeft et al. (1982), which indicates how water is derived by wells developed in a circular island. If elongated, the center of the island corresponds to a regional ground-water divide while the shoreline corresponds to a regional river. In both versions, ground-water table elevation is a function of recharge and transmissivity. A dynamic equilibrium exists such that the gradient of the water table will convey all recharge to discharge areas. Withdrawals of ground water result initially in mining, with a new equilibrium attained when pumping equals capture. During early development, capture is an important source of water in discharge areas, while mining is more significant in recharge areas. The pattern observed in many areas shows the greatest ground-water level decline in the vicinity of ground-water divides and the steepest gradient near regional rivers. A similar pattern has been observed adjacent to the Arkansas River in south-central Kansas. Similar decline patterns can be modeled for a hypothetical ground-water basin. This is of major importance to water-resource managers because it dictates that management programs be applied to the entire hydrologic system.