碳减排目标的实现机制比较与选择——基于数量型与价格型减排工具的模拟

基于2012年微观层面的社会核算矩阵(SAM)表,本文构建动态可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型,分别设计碳交易和碳税情景加入该模型,模拟中国2012—2030年的宏观经济效应和部门结构效应。研究结果表明:就宏观效应来看,2030年碳交易和碳税情景的碳强度分别比基准情景下降了24.24%和26.487%,分别完成碳减排目标的55.052%和59.349%;碳交易情景下消费、投资、出口和进口出现较大波动,碳税情景下这些指标小幅上涨。就部门经济效应来看,能源部门受政策情景影响最大,其次是制造业部门,其他部门受到的影响较小;碳交易情景对各部门增加值有抑制作用,并对原油和天然气部门的消费产生较大冲击。就部门减排效应来看,制造业部门的减排效应较显著;碳税情景的减排效应优于碳交易情景。总体而言,单一实施碳交易或碳税政策,不能完全实现碳减排目标,碳税政策相对温和,可以考虑两种减排政策配合实施,以减缓对经济系统冲击,并实现碳减排目标。     

南充市移动源污染物排放清单特征分析

基于2014年南充市大气污染源排放清单调查,通过实地调研、现场测试与统计年鉴等获得活动水平数据,采用排放系数法估算建立排放清单。结果表明道路机动车保有量为877 197辆,摩托车、载客汽车、载货汽车占比分别为61.8%、29.9%、8.3%。道路移动源CO 39 631.2t,NO_X26 448t、VOCs 20 544t、HC 3 648t、PM101 777t、PM_(2.5)1 600t、SO2391.7t,主要污染物为CO、NO_X和VOCs。柴油重型载货汽车、柴油轻型载货汽车、柴油大型载客汽车是NO_X、SO2、PM10和PM_(2.5)主要排放源,普通摩托车、其他燃料小型载客汽车是CO、VOCs主要排放源。普通摩托车和汽油中型载货汽车是HC主要排放源。非道路移动源污染物总量NO_X2 322t,CO 1 173t,HC 657.2t、PM 467.7t、PM_(2.5)252.9t、VOCs 179.8t。农业机械对CO、PM_(2.5)、PM、THC排放贡献率高,分别为49.5%、50.2%、48.3%、30.0%;工程机械对NO_X、PM_(2.5)、PM、THC的贡献率高,分别为51.4%、40.3%、38.9%、39.3%;船舶对VOCS排放贡献为90.3%。顺庆、高坪、嘉陵的CO、NO_X、THC、PM排放贡献率较高,蓬安VOCS排放贡献率较高。     

碳中和目标下的北京城市道路移动源CO2和大气污染物协同减排效应研究

为实现2060年碳中和目标,研究北京城市道路移动源CO_2和大气污染物(CO、NO_x、PM_(2.5))的协同减排效应。本文以2016年为基准年,建立CO_2和大气污染物排放量的LEAP模型,设计三种政策情景,预测到2060年各类污染物排放量,并通过减排效应坐标系分析和减排弹性系数法研究不同措施下CO_2和大气污染物的协同减排效应。结果显示,综合政策情景的减排作用最好,且协同减排效应最显著,但在2060年无法实现碳中和目标;单一措施情景下,严格排放标准措施的协同减排效果有限,但对各污染物的减排协同性最优,推广公共交通减排协同性次之,发展新能源车辆措施具有较好的协同减排效果,但对CO_2—CO和CO_2—PM_(2.5)的减排协同度较差。对此,本文提出应加快推动交通能源结构转型,在新能源车取代燃油类机动车的同时,要不断减少天然气类车型的比例,尽可能实现"电能+新能源汽车"的零排放能源结构;还要加严机动车排放标准限值以加强CO_2和大气污染物的减排协同度;制定相应的机动车CO_2和大气污染物协同排放限值标准目标,构建CO_2与大气污染物排放协同管理体系等建议。     

我国大气细颗粒物污染防治目标和控制措施研究

我国面临着严重的细颗粒物(PM2.5)污染问题,PM2.5对人体健康、能见度、气候变化、生态系统等均产生了不良影响。本文旨在提出我国PM2.5污染防治目标和控制措施,为从根本上改善空气质量提供科学依据。首先,本文提出了2020年和2030年我国PM2.5污染防治目标。其次,采用能源和污染排放技术模型,分情景预测了我国未来一次大气污染物排放量的变化趋势。基于情景预测结果和此前研究建立的一次污染物排放与PM2.5浓度间的非线性关系,确定了2020年—2030年与PM2.5浓度改善相适应的全国和重点区域大气污染物减排目标。最后,利用能源和污染排放技术模型,提出了实现大气污染物减排的技术措施和对策建议。研究表明,2030年全国二氧化硫、氮氧化物、一次PM2.5和挥发性有机物的排放量应分别比2012年至少削减51%、64%、53%和36%,氨排放量也要略有下降。对于污染严重的重点区域,必须采取更严格的控制力度。要实现上述减排,应加快能源结构调整,推进煤炭清洁高效集中可持续利用,建立"车-油-路"一体的移动源控制体系,并强化多源多污染物的末端控制。     

成都市城区春节期间燃放烟花爆竹对空气质量的影响

利用空气质量自动监测系统分析了2013年春节期间成都市城区的SO2、NO2、CO、O3、PM10及PM2.5的浓度值,发现烟花爆竹的燃放对SO2、NO2、PM10及PM2.5的浓度有较大影响。     

“PM2.5新政”是科学发展的晴雨表

如果说"PM2.5新政"带给公众更多遐想的空间,那么,节能减排就是让理想成为现实的强力保障。环保部门必须动员全社会力量,群策群力,联手向污染宣战。     

北京市民用煤污染治理历程回顾

虽然2013年"减煤换煤"前北京地区民用煤使用量仅占全市总用煤量的19%,但PM2.5排放量约占到全市PM2.5总排放量的35%,如果再考虑气态污染物二次转化,则民用煤对北京市空气中PM2.5的贡献接近50%。烧烟煤散煤污染物排放严重,其PM10、PM2.5、SO2、CO、VOCs排放分别是大型燃煤锅炉的5.4倍、4.7倍、1.3倍、18.2倍、1.3倍,汞排放比大型燃煤锅炉高1-2个数量级,黑炭、多环芳烃和苯并芘排放高3-5个数量级。北京市2013年开始"减煤换煤"行动,通过实施"五个一批"削减民用煤使用量,污染物减排效果明显,成功经验值得其他省市参考借鉴。     

碳税政策对我国电力系统碳减排的影响分析

碳税通常被认为是成本有效的碳减排政策工具。本文利用综合资源规划评价模型,对我国电力系统在碳税征收情景下的碳减排影响进行了分析。研究显示,碳税政策不仅实现了二氧化碳排放量减少的政策目标,同时还促进了电力系统技术和燃料结构的低碳化发展。     

大连市年底前发布PM2.5数据

据中国环境报报道,目前大连市10个国控子站PM2.5和臭氧监测设备已经进入安装调试阶段,预计8月末开始试运行。据介绍,目前大连市10个国控空气自动监测点位中只有青泥洼桥一个点位具有PM2.5和臭氧监测能力,其他点位只监测可吸入颗粒物、二氧化硫、二氧化氮和一氧化碳4项污染物。为确保今年年底前10个国控空气自动监测子站能够按照新的空气质量标准及时发布监测数据,大连市申请了减排专项资金,专门用于国控子站的PM2.5和臭氧监测设备购置。据大连市环保部门有关负责人介绍,年底前,大     

我国炼化企业温室气体减排及CDM项目开展情况分析

我国炼化企业是高耗能高污染企业,温室气体排放量大而分散,减排潜力巨大。目前我国炼化企业比较重视废气的治理,如SOx,对于温室气体减排工作的研究投入力度相对较小,CDM项目很少且主要集中于N2O减排CDM项目。考虑到第一承诺期结束以后我国可能需要承担减排任务,单纯N2O减排将不能满足我国的温室气体减排需求。因此,我国炼化企业需要开展CO2减排技术研究。同时从节能减排及CO2资源化利用等方面对我国炼化企业进行分析,提出我国炼化企业节能减排措施,为我国炼化企业CO2减排提供理论依据。     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

Experimental investigation on the performance and emission characteristics of a diesel engine by varying the injection pressure and injection timing using mixed biodiesel

Biodiesel is a promising fuel for compression ignition engines instead of diesel fuel. Due to the depletion of diesel fuel, an alternative fuel can be used in an engine. The experiments were conducted on a four-stroke, single cylinder CI engine. In this present investigation, an attempt has been made to study the influence of injection pressure (IP) and injection timing (IT) on the performance and emission characteristics of diesel engines by using mixed biodiesel (Thevetia peruviana, Jatropha, Pongamia, and Azadirachta indica). The injection pressure is varied from 200 to 230 bar and the injection timing is varied from 23 to 29° bTDC at an increment of 10 bar and 2° bTDC, respectively, and the results were compared with diesel. From this study, the results showed that the brake thermal efficiency (BTE) was increased by 2.4% with an increase in injection pressure and 1.5% with an increase in the injection timing for the maximum load, but lesser than diesel. Furthermore, a reduction of 5.08% of brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC) has been noticed for the rise in IP and IT with loads but higher than diesel. The reduction was 34.17%, 53.85%, and 29.7% and 29.17%, 53.85%, and 21.95% of hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and smoke emissions, respectively, at 230 bar injection pressure and at 27° bTDC injection timing. Also, a significant increase in nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions at the maximum load was observed by increasing the injection pressure and injection timing.     

基于产业链分析的长三角地区CO2与大气污染物排放研究

长三角地区作为我国大气污染较为严重区域之一，如何在保持经济增长的同时减少CO₂与大气污染物的排放已成为一个重要挑战。本研究基于2007年与2012年长三角区域间投入产出表，定量分析了长三角地区省市间贸易引致的二氧化碳和大气污染物排放转移特征和变化趋势。同时，运用产业关联系数法，从前向关联与后向关联双重视角分析了长三角地区减缓CO₂和大气污染物排放的关键行业。研究结果表明，长三角的SO₂、PM_2.5排放总量表现为消费端大于生产端，CO₂、NO_x排放总量表现为生产端大于消费端。安徽省总体呈现为长三角地区贸易的SO₂、NO_x与PM_2.5排放净调出地，而上海与浙江表现为多数污染物排放净调入地。CO₂与大气污染物协同前向减排的关键行业为江苏省、浙江省和安徽省的电力、热力的生产和供应业，安徽省的煤炭开采和洗选业等，可以通过生产端技术革新和能源结构优化来促进减排；CO₂与大气污染物后向协同减排的关键行业为江苏省、浙江省和安徽省的建筑业等，对于这些行业，调整消费结构是有效的减排措施。为更好地制定长三角地区减排与污染防治政策，应当综合考虑行业减排、协同减排等，以确保经济持续增长的同时达到减排目标。     

Energy and carbon dioxide intensity of Thailand's steel industry and greenhouse gas emission projection toward the year 2050

The purpose of this article is to study the energy and carbon dioxide intensities of Thailand's steel industry and to propose greenhouse gas emission trends from the year 2011 to 2050 under plausible scenarios. The amount of CO₂ emission from iron and steel production was calculated using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines in the boundary of production process (gate to gate). The results showed that energy intensity of semi-finished steel product was 2.84 GJ/t semi-finished steel and CO₂ intensity was 0.37 tCO_2eq/t semi-finished steel. Energy intensity of steel finishing process was 1.86 GJ/t finished steel and CO₂ intensity was 0.16 tCO_2eq/t finished steel. Using three plausible scenarios from Thailand's steel industry, S1: without integrated steel plant (baseline scenario), S2: with a traditional integrated BF–BOF route and S3: with an alternative integrated DR-EAF route; the Greenhouse Gas emissions from the year 2011 to 2050 were projected. In 2050, the CO₂ emission from S1 (baseline scenario) was 4.84 million tonnes, S2 was 21.96 million tonnes increasing 4.54 times from baseline scenario. The CO₂ emission from S3 was 7.12 million tonnes increasing 1.47 times from baseline scenario.     

Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming

Measures for vehicle exhaust emissions aimed at reducing either air pollution or global warming could have counterproductive effects on one another. Increasing diesel passenger vehicles, which generally have lower CO₂ emissions than gasoline counterparts, leads to increasing particulate matter (PM) emissions, while gasoline has lower PM emissions than diesel. It is said that stringent limits on PM emission factors discourages improved CO₂ emission factors. Without including both effects in a risk evaluation, one cannot evaluate whether the total risk is reduced or not. Hence, we evaluated representative exhaust emission measures based on risk evaluation for both air pollution and global warming. Considering consumer choice between diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles and emissions standards adopted in Japan from 1995 to 2005, we built five cases for vehicle policy evaluation. For each case, we estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as an index of human health risk caused by lung cancer linked to inhalation exposure of elemental carbon in PM as well as due to global warming linked to CO₂. The results of our risk evaluation reveal that the case adopting the 2005 new long-term Japanese emission standard reduces the human health risk caused by lung cancer due to air pollution by 0.6 × 10³ DALY, but would increase the risk due to global warming by 31.9 × 10³ DALY compared with the case of adopting EURO 4, for the same conditions of passenger vehicle choice from 1995. These results suggest that the characteristics of Japanese emissions standards are mainly designed to reduce air pollution.     

Energy balance and global warming potential of corn straw-based bioethanol in China from a life cycle perspective

As the second largest corn producer in this world, China has abundant corn straw resources. The study assessed the energy balance and global warming potential of corn straw-based bioethanol production and utilization in China from a life cycle perspective. The results revealed that bioethanol used as gasoline and diesel blend fuel could reduce global warming potential by 10%–97% and 4%–96%, respectively, as compared to gasoline and diesel for transport. The total global warming potential, net global warming potential, net energy, and Net Energy Ratio per MJ ethanol generated from corn straw-based bioethanol system are estimated to be 0.20 kg CO₂-eq, 0.012 kg CO₂-eq, 0.60 MJ, and 1.87, respectively. By using sensitivity analysis, we found that the collected coefficient and compressing density of straw have a more obvious influence on energy balance; transportation distance has a more obvious influence on global warming potential emission factor. The by-products may be utilized as fertilizer, animal feed, cement replacement, or high-value lignin chemicals, which make a contribution to offsetting 0.28 MJ per MJ ethanol of energy consumption.     

中国独立型环境税方案设计及其效应分析

环境税是当前国家正在推进的一项重要的环境经济政策改革。本研究从分析环境税的内涵和实施基础出发,提出了我国独立型环境税税制设计方案,对污染排放税目、污染产品税目、生态保护税目和碳排放税目的具体税制要素进行了设计,测算了不同组合方案下的环境税可能收入水平。利用环境CGE模型分析了环境税征收对GDP、物价、生产、消费、贸易和要素资源配置的影响,提出了环境税的实施路线图。     

Engine Performance and Emission Characteristics of Plastic Oil Produced from Waste Polyethylene and Its Blends with Diesel Fuel

The overall objective of this study was to explore the utility of waste plastics as a potential source of diesel fuel. An experimental study was conducted to evaluate the use of various blends of plastic oil produced from waste polyethylene (WPE) with diesel fuel (D). WPE was degraded thermally and catalytically using sodium aluminum silicate as a catalyst. The oil collected at optimum conditions (414°C–480°C range and 1 h reaction time) was fractionated at different temperatures and fuel properties of the fractions were measured. Plastic oil was blended with diesel fuel at the volumetric ratios of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 100%. Fuel properties of blends are found comparable with those of diesel fuel within the EN 590 Diesel Fuel standard and they can also be used as fuel in compression ignition engines without any modification. Engine performance and exhaust emission studies of 5% WPE-D (WPE5) blend were performed. Experimental results showed that carbon monoxide (CO) emission is decreased by 20.63%, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission is increased by 3.34%, and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emission is increased by 9.17% with WPE-D (WPE5) blend compared to diesel fuel.