新时期我国环境风险防控面临的多元化挑战

当前,环境风险已成为威胁公众健康、公共安全和社会稳定的重要因素,也成为我国生态文明建设面临的巨大瓶颈性考验。本期特别邀请南京大学毕军教授组织“环境风险管理”专题,就环境污染保险制度、环境风险规制成本、土壤污染风险评价,以及特殊风险(Natech)管理等问题展开研究和讨论。     

辽宁省城市自然灾害风险评价及综合减灾对策研究

在全球自然灾害频发的背景下,城市自然灾害风险研究引起国际社会和国内外学者的高度关注.在大量数据与文献资料的基础上,借鉴国内外自然灾害风险研究的成果,对辽宁省城市自然灾害强度进行综合评价,划分风险等级,最终利用ArcGIS技术绘制风险评价图,以期为辽宁省政府风险管理决策、城市综合减灾降险工作提供科学依据和技术支撑.     

生态环境风险管理与损害赔偿制度现状与展望

我国目前面临的生态环境风险形势复杂严峻，严密防控生态环境风险已成为“十四五”和中长期生态环境保护、美丽中国建设的重要任务之一。本文探讨了生态环境风险的概念、分类，系统梳理了生态环境风险评估与管理、生态环境损害评估与损害赔偿等领域的国内外管理经验与研究进展。在此基础上，重点剖析了我国生态环境风险管理面临的痛点与难点问题，从树立生态环境风险法治管理理念、构建生态环境风险管理战略布局、建立生态环境风险常态化管控体系、加强生态环境风险防控技术支撑、强化经济和社会治理手段助力风险管控、建设生态环境损害赔偿业务化工作体系等六个方面，系统提出了加强我国生态环境风险管理的对策建议，以期为更有效地防范化解重大生态环境风险提供决策参考。     

协同视角下农村自然灾害防治能力提升研究

我国农村自然灾害频发，受灾人数和直接经济损失居高不下，同时加剧了生态环境的脆弱性，给乡村振兴造成重大阻碍，迫切需要补齐农村自然灾害应急管理这一短板。自然灾害、生态环境、乡村振兴三者之间的紧密关联性，决定农村灾害应急与生态保护之间具有高度协同性，基于灾害应急和生态保护协同视角提升农村自然灾害防治能力，是推进自然灾害防治体系和防治能力现代化的重要路径。本文从目标、机制、主体、防控、保障5个层面构建了农村灾害应急和生态保护的协同体系，并在协同体系下提出从机制体制、监测预警、保障设施、统筹关系体4个方面推动农村自然灾害防治能力提升的对策建议，为减少灾害损失、降低“因灾返贫”风险和促进乡村振兴提供理论和实践参考。     

比较风险评价在环境风险管理中的应用

在环境风险管理中,需要针对不同的管理目标进行评估与排序,实现有限资源供给下的风险管理效率最大化提升。作为环境风险优先管理中的一个重要内容,比较风险评价是针对不同类型环境问题进行评估与排序的方法,它可以从宏观尺度上有效识别出各类环境问题的风险大小顺序,并有针对性进行管理优先级的设置。本文在对国内外比较风险评价研究进行系统梳理的基础上,分析其对我国环境风险管理的意义,提出我国在开展环境问题的比较风险评价、建立与完善环境风险管理工作优先级等方面的建议。     

三峡库区化工园区环境风险防控体系规划研究

以三峡库区某化工园区为例,分析园区特点及危险性,提出了三峡库区内化工园区环境风险防控体系规划建设内容,化工园区应从信息体系、管理体系、工程体系、在线监测体系、应急和保障体系等五大方面着手,建立标准化的环境风险防控规划体系,实现化工园区的规范化管理,提高化工园区环境风险管理水平和环境风险防控能力,保障三峡库区环境安全。     

洪水灾害风险评价研究综述

洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一，带来了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。洪水灾害风险评价是科学有效地防洪减灾的前提和基础。文章对洪水灾害风险相关概念进行了界定，从气象、水文水力、社会经济、遥感与GIS和土地利用5个方面对洪水灾害风险评价的常用方法进行了评述，并列出了常用的评价因子。最后指出了未来研究的可能发展方向。     

国内外工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准研究

工业企业颗粒物无组织排放是环境空气中颗粒物的主要来源之一。长期以来,由于我国工业生产粗放型发展,环境管理不够精细,企业重视程度不够,从而导致颗粒物无组织排放问题越发突出,严重影响了我国大气环境质量的根本改善。工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准是我国大气污染物排放标准体系的重要组成部分,亦是颗粒物无组织排放管理和执法监管的重要技术依据。了解国内外当前工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准的发展现状、体系特点及存在的问题,有助于科学指导我国工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准的制定。本文系统研究了中国、美国、德国和日本的工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制法规及标准,通过对比分析,指出了我国工业源颗粒物无组织排放控制标准存在的问题,并提出完善标准的建议,为优化我国现行大气污染物排放标准体系、深化颗粒物污染防治和管理提供参考依据。     

环境应急，我们刚刚起步

当前，我国正处在工业化、城镇化加速发展的时期，各种自然灾害和人为活动带来的环境风险不断加剧，突发环境事件以更加复杂、多样的形式为公众所关注，有效防范和应对突发环境事件已成为环境保护工作的重要任务之一。我国环境安全的现状是什么？环境应急管理体系是怎样的？     

输油管道水环境风险评估方法构建

为提高环境风险预防与控制能力,降低突发环境事件的发生频率,需建立科学高效的环境风险管理体系,其核心是实施环境风险分类分级管理,而环境风险评估方法是实现环境风险分级管理的前提和基础。文章在对油品长输管道水环境风险特征分析的基础上,提出以“管道失效可能性”作为管道事故发生概率的评价指标,以“水环境敏感性”作为事故后果的评价指标,分别构建评价指标体系,并给出了相应的等级划分原则和方法,最终运用风险评价矩阵综合确定管道（管段）水环境风险等级,可为管道企业水环境风险管理提供决策依据。     

洪水灾害遥感监测研究综述

洪水灾害是最严重的自然灾害之一,洪灾造成的损失十分严重,对其进行科学的监测是防灾减灾的基础。在洪水灾害遥感监测研究进展的介绍基础上,着重对中分辨率、高时相、微波、高精度DEM、多源数据遥感洪水监测原理及方法的研究进展进行比较和总结,分析各种数据特点。在此基础上提出了洪水遥感监测向高分辨率、高时相性方向,遥感影像相互订正和利用3S技术是洪涝灾害动态监测发展的方向,为洪水灾害的快速反应和防洪辅助决策提供依据。     

核电环境风险研究进展及管理启示

为满足快速增长的电力需求,缓解传统化石能源紧缺及其所伴随的大气污染问题,发电过程中几乎不产生常规大气污染物的核电逐渐成为我国重要的能源战略选择。但是,由于核电站在运行过程中,特别是发生重大核事故时,产生的放射性物质可能对健康造成负面影响,发展核电仍然存在较大的争议和阻力。在此背景下,需要构建科学、完善的核电风险评估与管理体系,以保障我国的核电行业健康、有序发展。在对国内外核电风险评估研究现状进行系统梳理的基础上,分析其对核电风险管理的意义,提出了我国未来构建核电风险评估与管理体系的建议。     

Risk and resilience lessons from Venice

In the history of disasters in Venice, there are implications for modern times in terms of complex systems management and emerging threats, in particular from examples of risk management and resilience achieved by the Venetian state during outbreaks of the plague. In fourteenth century Venice, risk assessment the way we practice it today would fail to provide meaningful recommendations to reduce the casualty rate of the plague epidemic because the cause and transmission of the disease was not understood. Instead, a set of systemic actions across the social, economic, and transportation networks of the city taken by officials and doctors eventually slowed and arguably stopped the spread of the disease. These latter actions are an early example of what is now considered resilience management. Resilience management improves a complex system’s ability to prepare, absorb, recover, and adapt to unexpected threats and does so by address the capabilities at a system, rather than component, level. Resilience management can be a guide to addressing current issues of population growth and rising sea level in modern day Venice and across the globe. This paper calls for integration of resilience assessment in comprehensive risk and resilience management framework.     

Management of natural hazards in Europe: The role of spatial planning in selected EU member states

This paper presents the results of an assessment made as a part of the research project, Applied Multi-Risk Mapping of Natural Hazards for Impact Assessment (ARMONIA). The aim was to identify which aspects in the so-called disaster management cycle are covered by spatial planning in planning practice in the European Union's member states of Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. In contrast to the initial hypothesis, the analysis of planning practice has shown that the role of spatial planning in risk assessment and management in many ways has been overestimated. The results have shown that spatial planning is only one of many actors in risk management and that it is, in general, not involved in risk assessment. Further, multi-risk assessment approaches are not used in planning practice, risk indicators are hardly used and vulnerability indicators are not at all used. The paper will interpret these surprising results and will answer the question of the role of spatial planning in natural risk assessment and management.     

基于系统动力学的中国绿色发展政策仿真研究

迅速的工业化进程为我国带来了巨大的经济增长,但其引发的资源和环境问题也日益突出,为应对这一严峻挑战,我国开始转变发展思路,推行绿色发展的发展理念。鉴于绿色发展过程中经济、资源、环境多系统之间存在复杂的相互作用,本研究采用系统动力学方法构建了中国经济—资源—环境的动态模型,并在模型有效性的基础上通过五种典型发展模式对政策进行仿真,进而对不同模式未来的发展趋势进行分析。结果表明:加大环保、能源设备更新投资,促进环境友好型、资源节约型社会建设,是我国实现绿色发展的必由之路;绿色发展过程中还要注重各系统间的协调发展,从整体层面制定绿色发展政策;同时,政府还要关注绿色发展的文化建设,促进公众生活和消费方式的绿色转型。     

A measurement of community disaster resilience in Korea

Building a community that is resilient to disasters has become one of the main goals of disaster management. Communities that are more disaster resilient often experience less impact from the disaster and reduced recovery periods afterwards. This study develops a methodology for constructing a set of indicators measuring Community Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) in terms of human, social, economic, environmental, and institutional factors. In this study, the degree of community resilience to natural disasters was measured for 229 local municipalities in Korea, followed by an examination of the relationship between the aggregated CDRI and disaster losses, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. Identifying the extent of community resilience to natural disasters would provide emergency managers and decision-makers with strategic directions for improving local communities' resilience to natural disasters while reducing the negative impacts of disasters.     

Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams

The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process.