资源循环复杂物质流系统的Petri网建模方法研究

物质流分析是研究循环经济的重要方法,本文面向资源循环的流程制造企业,对不同复杂度的物质流系统进行了建模方法研究。首先对国内外在物质流领域的建模理论研究进行了综述,然后对物质流的特点和循环物质流的建模方法进行了分析,对基于投入产出表格的物质流分析方法、理论层面基于图论的物质流分析方法以及物质流分析软件进行了综述,最后重点探讨了Petri网建模与仿真工具在循环物质流分析中的建模方法,研究了不同类型Petri网在解决不同复杂度的物质流系统问题中的适用性,为物质流建模与仿真提供理论支撑。     

绿洲的形成机制和分类体系

作为系统，绿洲与其外围环境（即山地系统与盆地系统）之问进行一定的物质、能量和信息的交流、转换，这正是绿洲发生的根源所在．在对绿洲的物质流、能量流和信息流成因进行分析的基础上，提出了绿洲发生学的一般模式。并且根据绿洲受人类活动影响的程度，非天然绿洲的人文地理特征和天然绿洲的主要植被类型，主导经济部门结构和开发历史，以及地貌部门对除矿业绿洲外的各经济绿洲类型进行四级分类，得出绿洲的分类系统．     

物质流在渡口市工业环境中的应用——铁、钛、钒在环境中的运动及其分布

在城市生态系统中,人类通过生产与消费活动作用于环境。人类的生产活动,不断地从环境中获得物质和能源,再将其变成社会所需的物质,与此同时,生产和消费活动又以“三废”形式把多余的物质和能量排入环境而造成污染。城市环境污染后,又反作用于人类。这样,物质流、能量流和同时以各种不同表     

福建省经济系统物质流分析研究

运用物质流分析(MFA)方法,对福建省经济系统在1990~2008年间的物质输入与输出进行系统地分析,探讨了福建省经济发展与环境压力的关系。研究结果表明,福建省"资源高投入"的粗放型经济发展模式没有实现根本转变。主要结论有:(1)福建省物质输入量不断上升,能源需求急剧增长;(2)隐藏流不断增加,矿产资源地生态包袱不断增大;(3)区域过程排放缓慢上升,大气污染物排放为主要推动因子;(4)物质需求强度有反弹趋势,经济发展与物质需求出现扩张性"复钩"。最后,对福建省经济可持续发展提出了大力提高资源能源利用率、推进循环经济发展、优化产业结构、继续强化环境综合整治等建议。     

中国省域经济增长源泉研究:要素和全要素生产率——基于改进空间的随机前沿模型

结合传统随机前沿模型(SFA)、地理加权回归(GWR)模型和空间误差模型(SEA),将截面数据的地理加权回归模型推广应用到面板数据,新的空间随机前沿模型在获取各省全要素生产率的同时可得到各自的前沿生产函数。结果表明:(1)要素投入,尤其是资本要素投入仍是多数地区经济增长的主要源泉;(2)中部和西部劳动力流失问题严峻;(3)我国经济增长与高污染、高能耗并行;(4)对新技术利用不佳仍是现阶段我国发展面临的巨大障碍;(5)中部和西部全要素生产率在现有研究中往往被低估;(6)全要素生产率贡献各地的差异较大,说明我国还存在较强的技术扩散壁垒。     

环境政策评估：一个宏观经济分析框架的综述

环境动态随机一般均衡（E-DSGE）模型以其良好的扩展性和预测性逐渐被环境宏观经济学者接纳。环境因素的引入包括经济系统对环境系统的作用、环境系统的演化过程、环境系统对经济系统的反作用等方式。E-DSGE模型中的不确定性冲击包括经济不确定性冲击、政策不确定性冲击和环境不确定性冲击。E-DSGE模型中环境政策的讨论重点包括环境税、限额与交易、强度管制等。多重环境政策的组合效应、环境影响的国际传导以及环境政策与宏观经济政策的融合等是E-DSGE模型研究的重要前沿课题。加强新凯恩斯框架下E-DSGE模型的构建与应用,加强跨流域和跨界的环境问题、水的问题、碳的问题等研究是下一阶段E-DSGE建模的重点。     

典型染料医药化工园区清洁生产与循环经济发展路径研究

本研究以典型染料医药精细化工园区HSEDA为对象，从四个方面分析其近17年来产学研政合作推行清洁生产与发展循环经济的技术路径与创新实践、所取得的减污降碳绩效，以及未来展望。研究发现， HSEDA绿色低碳循环发展有四个特征：①突出园区精细化物质流能量流管理，自下而上理清多产品、多元素、多层级物质能量代谢结构、路径和过程，定量揭示全生命周期环境影响，设计清洁生产和循环经济靶向措施；②染料行业自主开发了连续硝化、催化加氢、重氮化，高效分离、传热传质偶合等清洁技术，提效减排绩效显著；③医药行业开发了维生素、喹诺酮关键中间体短流程绿色合成技术，提高了原子经济性；④园区定量分析反应、工艺及物料全生命周期安全特性和风险，系统设计，提高本质安全。2006-2019年， HSEDA实现经济与资源、能源、环境脱钩发展。在“双碳”战略下，从系统角度提出园区“一核六驱”绿色低碳循环发展新模式。     

绿色经济视角下环渤海经济圈经济效率的再评价——基于熵权法和DEA—Malmquist方法

长期以传统GDP作为衡量经济发展的单一评价指标，造成了一系列环境问题，已不能满足科学发展观的要求。以绿色经济为视角，通过计量方法重新计算包含环境成本的相对绿色GDP，发现环渤海地区除北京市以外，在经济总量扩张的同时环境压力不断增加。将计算得到的相对绿色GDP作为DEA—Malmquist模型的产出指标，重新评价环渤海地区的经济效率，发现新的效率值明显低于传统GDP下的经济效率，并有不断下降的趋势。     

上下游水污染价值补偿量化标准设计

本文依据环境经济学物质平衡理论的概念框架,以污染者付费原则的环境经济政策为指导,研究上游河流水污染引发下游污染事件所致经济损失成本和事故技术等级关联系数,进而提出以公平和可持续的价值补偿标准为基础的上下游河流水污染经济补偿模型及其运作机制,并为环境损害财务成本的计量提供参考依据。     

"环境与可持续发展"公共课程的教学尝试

21世纪的人类社会，物质明达到了前所未有的高度。但是在人类经济水平提高、物质生活丰富的同时．一系列环境问题诸如环境恶化、资源匮乏等等也伴随而来，它不仅威胁了当今的健康与生存，也危及到子孙后代的前途与命运。     

论安徽省发展循环经济的财政政策选择

发展循环经济是安徽省实现又好又快发展的必然选择。本文阐述了安徽省发展循环经济的科学内涵，分析了安徽省发展循环经济的重大意义。针对安徽省发展循环经济面临的主要问题，提出促进安徽省循环经济发展的财政政策选择方案。     

Aggregating the benefits of environmental improvements: distance-decay functions for use and non-use values

One of the main problems in using environmental cost-benefit analysis is deciding on the relevant population: whose benefits should we count? This is important since aggregate benefits depend on both per-person benefit and the number of beneficiaries. Yet this latter term is often hard to evaluate. Distance-decay functions are one way of addressing this problem. In this paper, we present estimates of distance-decay functions for a particular environmental improvement, namely a reduction in low flow problems on the River Mimram in Southern England. We do this both for users and non-users, in the context of a contingent valuation study of the benefits of improving low flow conditions. We test whether distance-decay effects for mean Willingness to Pay are stronger for a single environmental good (the River Mimram, in this case) than for a more inclusive set (here, all rivers in Thames region which suffer from low flow problems). Finally, we explore the impact on part-whole bias, in terms of the relationship between WTP for an individual site and WTP for a more inclusive group of sites, of allowing for distance-decay effects.     

Fishing and Farming at Lake Chad: Overcapitalisation, Opportunities and Fisheries Management

Overcapitalisation is one way in which fishing is said to exert a negative externality on the wider economy. Resources invested in fishing could be invested more productively in other sectors of the economy. The logical solution is the shift of resources, in particular scarce capital, from fishing to more profitable sectors. This paper examines the rural economy at Lake Chad and the implications from the results of a socio-economic survey of fishing households for potential fisheries management measures, in particular those which would limit or reduce the level of resources invested in the Lake's fishery. Survey results demonstrate a close link between the farming and fishing activities of many households and suggest that the integration of fishing and farming necessitate consideration of the inter-sectoral impacts of potential fisheries management measures.     

烟气脱硫与循环经济

针对当前烟气脱硫存在的问题,根据循环经济的理论与方法,从烟气脱硫技术特点、工艺和脱硫副产物出路等方面探讨了我国烟气脱硫技术的现状及发展前景,认为基于循环经济下的烟气脱硫技术更加符合资源与环境协调发展的要求.     

Modification of uncertainty analysis in adapted material flow analysis: Case study of nitrogen flows in the Day-Nhue River Basin,Vietnam

Nitrogen flows impacted by human activities in the Day-Nhue River Basin in northern Vietnam have been modeled using adapted material flow analysis (MFA). This study introduces a modified uncertainty analysis procedure and its importance in MFA. We generated a probability distribution using a Monte Carlo simulation, calculated the nitrogen budget for each process and then evaluated the plausibility under three different criterion sets. The third criterion, with one standard deviation of the budget value as the confidence interval and 68% as the confidence level, could be applied to effectively identify hidden uncertainties in the MFA system. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for revising parameters, followed by the reassessment of the model structure by revising equations or flow regime, if necessary. The number of processes that passed the plausibility test increased from five to nine after reassessment of model uncertainty with a greater model quality. The application of the uncertainty analysis approach to this case study revealed that the reassessment of equations in the aquaculture process largely changed the results for nitrogen flows to environments. The significant differences were identified as increased nitrogen load to the atmosphere and to soil/groundwater (17% and 41%, respectively), and a 58% decrease in nitrogen load to surface water. Thus, modified uncertainty analysis was considered to be an important screening system for ensuring quality of MFA modeling.     

水资源约束下柴达木盆地循环经济发展研究

水资源作为战略性经济资源日益影响着全球的环境和发展,水资源约束下柴达木盆地循环经济发展任重道远.通过分析柴达木循环经济发展及水资源约束状况,发现盆地存在用水结构不合理、水资源管理落后、水资源利用效率低等问题.基于区域独特性,提出柴达木循环经济发展思路：调整产业结构,实施虚拟水战略;提高水资源利用效率;构建完整的循环经济产业体系;完善循环经济相关的法律法规制度.     

Environmental consequences of recycling aluminum old scrap in a global market

Nowadays, aluminum scrap is traded globally. This has increased the need to analyze the flows of aluminum scrap, as well as to determine the environmental consequences from aluminum recycling. The objective of this work is to determine the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions of the old scrap collected and sorted for recycling, considering the market interactions. The study focused on Spain as a representative country for Europe. We integrate material flow analysis (MFA) with consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) in order to determine the most likely destination for the old scrap and the most likely corresponding process affected. Based on this analysis, it is possible to project some scenarios and to quantify the GHG emissions (generated and avoided) associated with old scrap recycling within a global market. From the MFA results, we projected that the Spanish demand for aluminum products will be met mainly with an increase in primary aluminum imports, and the excess of old scrap not used in Spain will be exported in future years, mainly to Asia. Depending on the scenario and on the marginal source of primary aluminum considered, the GHG emission estimates varied between −18,140 kg of CO₂ eq. t⁻¹ and −8427 of CO₂ eq. t⁻¹ of old scrap collected. More GHG emissions are avoided with an increase in export flows, but the export of old scrap should be considered as the loss of a key resource, and in the long term, it will also affect the semifinished products industry. Mapping the flows of raw materials and waste, as well as quantifying the GHG impacts derived from recycling, has become an essential prerequisite to consistent development from a linear toward a circular economy (CE).     

Incorporation of recycling flows into economy-wide material flow accounting and analysis: A case study for the Czech Republic

Economy-wide material flow accounting and analysis (EW-MFA) is considered a convenient tool for monitoring the vast range of issues related to the consumption of materials. As an increase in recycling is considered a crucial way of decreasing environmental pressures from this consumption, it makes sense to develop an indicator based on EW-MFA which would incorporate recycling flows. A prominent example of such an indicator is the cyclical use rate, which was developed by the Japanese Fundamental Plan for Establishing a Sound Material-Cycle Society.We calculated this indicator for the Czech Republic for 2002–2011 and proved that it can also be calculated for countries other than Japan, even though we encountered some unclear methodological issues related to specific features of the Czech waste management system. We further developed two modifications of the indicator taking into consideration that one purpose of the cyclical use rate is to express the ratio of consumption of secondary (recycled) materials and primary raw materials. We discussed these modifications and showed that overall cyclical use rate in the Czech Republic lags behind Japan both in terms of absolute value and trend development, although the indicator is higher for biomass in the Czech Republic. We also showed that this unfavorable evaluation is in contradiction with some classic waste indicators, such as treatment of waste by main treatment methods which is favorably evaluated in the Czech Republic. We concluded that it would be advisable to analyze measures for increasing recycling rates introduced by Japan and assess their possible transposition into the Czech Republic's institutional and legal framework for waste management.     

Assessment of physical economy through economy-wide material flow analysis in developing Uzbekistan

In this paper, we assess the physical dimensions of Uzbekistan's economy during 1992–2011 by using the economy-wide material flow analysis (EW-MFA) method, which is an internationally recognized tool for such assessments. There have been a number of studies using methodological standardization of EW-MFA, but to the best of our knowledge, it has never been used to assess the metabolism of Central Asian economies, especially, in this case, the Republic of Uzbekistan.Our analysis strives to empirically evaluate macroscopic economic activities by considering the accounting of material flows. The material flows data-set comprises of consistent data for domestic extraction, imports, and exports, as well as other derived MFA-based indicators.The derived indicators are internationally compared for further evaluation of national economic development performance in a given period. The indicators of direct material input (DMI) and total material requirements (TMR) showed a slight increase in 1992–2011 with an average annual increase of 2.79% and 2.34%. The trends of TMR, DMI, domestic material consumption (DMC) and material efficiency, which is indicated by GDP/DMI, displayed lower values than other industrialized countries referenced in the international comparison. Although national economic performance data showed particularly remarkable success, indicators measuring material inputs and DMC reveal an insignificant increase during the period of study. During the second decade of study period, relative decoupling has occurred which indicated that the economic indicator (GDP) grows faster than DMC and other macro indicators grow.