旅游预警系统的初步研究

近年来大部分旅游区游客过于集中，旅游质量下降，限制了旅游潜力的发挥和旅游业对经济发展的带动作用。探讨了旅游预警系统的运行机理和系统的构建，提出了旅游预警系统的五大子系统——旅游警情动态监测子系统、旅游警源分析子系统、旅游警兆识别子系统、旅游警度预报子系统和地理信息技术辅助子系统等，旨在对旅游行业和旅游目的地的可持续发展提供可靠的保障体系。     

巴东县旅游资源可持续开发构想

结合巴东县旅游资源的分布状况和特征分析，对比研究了巴东县旅游资源的优劣势，确定了巴东县旅游资源的特色和竞争力所在。在分析国内外旅游产品市场供给需求状况和发展趋势的基础上，提出了巴东县旅游资源的开发格局和优先发展旅游区的开发构想，对巴东县旅游资源的可持续开发具有现实和指导意义。     

中国旅游政策研究综述

旅游政策是旅游发展的目标和一套实现目标的规范准则，对促进旅游业健康快速发展具有十分重要的意义。从旅游产业政策、专项旅游政策和旅游政策经验借鉴等方面对中国旅游政策主要研究领域进行了综述，总结了中国旅游政策的研究成果，提出了存在的问题和今后的研究方向。     

巢湖区域地质旅游资源评价与开发对策

通过专家咨询和问卷调查分析方法，对巢湖区域地质旅游资源进行了综合评价和等级划分，明确了地质旅游资源在巢湖区域旅游开发中的地位与潜力，提出了对该区地质旅游资源规划和开发的途径与措施，探讨了地质旅游资源的保护对策。     

城市旅游综合体发展模式与对策研究

旅游综合体顺应了世界休闲业发展的潮流，它以旅游为主导，是一种全新的生产力形态。界定了城市旅游综合体的基本概念，归纳了城市旅游综合体的主要特征，探讨了城市旅游综合体形成的机制，认为旅游消费转型发展、地方特色文化传承、城市商业发展、旅游供给能力升级、政府的城市发展政策支持是城市旅游综合体形成的主要因素。依据城市旅游综合体发展的核心驱动功能不同，将城市旅游综合体的开发模式分为娱乐旅游综合体、休闲度假游综合体、会展旅游综合体和商业旅游综合体4种类型，在此基础上，提出了促进城市旅游综合体健康持续发展的对策。     

岭南四大名山旅游发展状况比较

岭南四大名山（丹霞山、鼎湖山、罗浮山和西樵山）是广东著名的山岳型旅游地。综合比较了四大名山的旅游发展状况，包括旅游开发基础、旅游发展状态、旅游经营绩效、旅游发展策略等，对四大名山多年来旅游开发的成败得失进行了评价，并从优化广东省域旅游发展格局和丰富省域旅游形象的角度，对提升岭南四大名山旅游发展地位的对策进行了思考。     

论乡村旅游产品的三维空间架构——以山东省乡村旅游开发为例

在指出乡村旅游产品与其它旅游产品开发的不同之处后，首先提出乡村旅游产品的开发方法及其相互关系。其次，从市场和资源两个大维度具体分析了乡村旅游产品开发，从而形成市场、产品和资源三维一体式的乡村旅游立体空间格局，使每一个乡村旅游目的地在合适的维度上开发出满足消费者需求的产品，并提出“乡村旅游产品预留空间”的概念。最后，以山东省乡村旅游为例，论证了乡村旅游产品立体空间格局的有效性和实践意义。     

北京旅游环境承载力评价及区域差异分析

随着国际大都市的建立和奥运会的举办，北京旅游业将迎来新一轮的快速发展，北京旅游环境承载力问题也更加受到重视。构建了由资源、经济设施、生态环境、文化心理及社会管理组成的旅游环境综合承载力指标体系，评价分析了北京旅游环境承载力及其区域差异，提出了提升旅游环境承载力的建议。结果表明，北京旅游环境承载力即将达到饱和；北京旅游环境承载力的区域差异十分明显，其限制性因素具有显著的区域特色。今后应加强旅游规划来进一步开发旅游资源，建立克服或回避限制性因素的可操作性旅游计划，加强区域统筹安排和生态规划，进行合理的旅游分流，实现旅游人数的区域调控，从而提升旅游环境的承载水平。     

电子商务与旅游市场运行机制研究

基于互联网的旅游电子商务的发展，变革着旅游交易的方式，创造了新的虚拟市场空间，使旅游市场的效率得到提高、旅游供需匹配功能得到强化，同时也加剧了旅游市场的内部竞争。旅游电子商务市场的虚拟化发展也为旅游市场管理提出了新课题，需要研究开发一系列新的技术手段和市场规范制度来保证旅游市场健康、良性发展。文章从电子商务与旅游市场运行的机制方面进行了一定的研究与探讨，力求说明以旅游电子商务来改造传统旅游市场的运作方式，提升旅游市场运行效率所具有的重要意义及可操作性。     

皖南乡村旅游可持续发展中的问题与对策

乡村旅游是新世纪我国农村发展和旅游产业发展的重要组成部分，是推动农村经济发展的重要动力。分析了皖南乡村旅游可持续发展的条件和发展中存在的问题，在此基础上提出了促进皖南乡村旅游可持续发展的对策：加强引导，普查资源，科学规划；突出个性，塑造品牌，加强乡村旅游的宣传促销工作；提升旅游产品功能，扩大旅游收益渠道；建章立制，加强对乡村旅游的规范化管理，提高服务质量。     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

Conversion of temperate forests into heaths: Role of ecosystem disturbance and ericaceous plants

Fire and logging in nutrient-poor temperate forests with certain ericaceous understory plants may convert the forests into heaths. The process of disturbance-induced heath formation is documented by using examples ofCalluna in western Europe,Kalmia in Newfoundland, andGaultheria (salal) in coastal British Columbia. In a cool, temperate climate, rapid vegetative growth ofCalluna, Kalmia, and salal following disturbance results in increasing organic accumulation (paludification), nutrient sequestration, soil acidification, and allelochemicals. These are thought to be the main reasons to conifer regeneration failure in disturbed habitats. If continuation in forest is a land-use objective, then temperate forests with an ericaceous understory should not be logged unless effective silvicultural methods are devised to control the ericaceous plants and restore forest regeneration. Preharvest vegetation control may be considered as an option. Failure to control the understory plants may lead to a long-term vegetation shift, from forest to heathland, particularly in nutrient-poor sites. Successful methods of controllingKalmia andGaultheria, however, have yet to be developed. While theKalmia- andGaultheria- dominated heathlands are undesirable in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, a wide range ofCalluna heathlands of western Europe are being conserved as natural and seminatural vegetation.     

Urban ecological systems: scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining heterogeneity within spatially extensive metropolitan areas. In addition to reviewing key findings relevant to each state factor, we note the emergence of tentative "urban syndromes" concerning soils, streams, wildlife and plants, and homogenization of certain ecosystem functions, such as soil organic carbon dynamics. We note the utility of the ecosystem approach, the human ecosystem framework, and watersheds as integrative tools to tie information about multiple state factors together. The organismal component of urban complexes includes the social organization of the human population, and we review key modes by which human populations within urban areas are differentiated, and how such differentiation affects environmentally relevant actions. Emerging syntheses in land change science and ecological urban design are also summarized. The multifaceted frameworks and the growing urban knowledge base do however identify some pressing research needs.     

Neighbourhood characteristics and urban gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area: staffing and voluntarism,food production,infrastructure, and sustainability practices

Urban gardens are important sources of sustenance for communities with limited access to food. Hence, this study focuses on food production in gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area in Northwest Ohio. We administered surveys to 150 garden managers from November 2014 to February 2015 in our attempt to better understand how neighbourhood racial composition and poverty levels are related to staffing and voluntarism, food production and distribution, the development of infrastructure, and the adoption of sustainability practices in urban gardens. The results from 30 gardens are presented in this paper. We used Geographic Information Systems to map the gardens and overlay the map with 2010 census data so that we could conduct demographic analyses of the neighbourhoods in which the gardens were located. Though the gardens were small – two acres or less – up to 46 varieties of food were grown in a single garden. Gardens also operated on small budgets. Food from the gardens was gifted or shared with friends, family, and neighbourhood residents. Gardens in predominantly minority neighbourhoods tended to have fewer institutional partners, less garden infrastructure, and had adopted fewer sustainable practices than gardens in predominantly White neighbourhoods. Nonetheless, residents of predominantly minority and high-poverty neighbourhoods participated in garden activities and influenced garden operations. Volunteering and staffing were racialised and gendered.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS AND BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF ESTUARINE/COASTAL POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: Sustained interest in and concern about the health status of the aquatic environment has resulted in extensive research focused on (1) effects of pollution on survival, growth, and reproduction of resource species at all life stages; (2) diseases of fish and shellfish, as they may be related to pollution and as they may serve as indicators of environmental stress; and (3) contaminant body burdens in fish and shellfish - their effects on the aquatic animals and their potential effects on humans. Effects, lethal and sublethal, of pollutants on life history stages of fish and shellfish have been documented, as have impacts on local stocks in badly degraded habitats, but as yet there has been no adequate quantitative demonstration of effects on entire aquatic species - probably because of the difficulty in sorting out relative effects of the many environmental factors that influence abundance. Sublethal effects, especially those that result in disease, have been examined intensively, and some diseases and disease syndromes have been associated statistically with pollution. Other pollution indicators (biochemical, physiological, genetic, behavioral, and ecological) have also received some attention, as have body burdens of contaminants in aquatic species. Research, especially that conducted during the past decade, has done much to clarify the many pathways and toxic effects of contaminants on aquatic animals, and has also helped to identify mechanisms for survival of fish and shellfish in the presence of environmental changes caused by human activities.     

Biodiversity and biotechnology

The maintenance of biodiversity is urged from many quarters and on grounds ranging from aesthetic considerations to its usefulness, particularly for biotechnology. But regardless of the grounds for preserving biodiversity, writers are generally in agreement that it should be preserved. But, in examining the various references biodiversity, such as species diversity, genetic diversity, and habitat diversity, it is apparent that we cannot aim to preserve biodiversityas such, since there are a number of conflicts in any such undertaking. In preserving one aspect of biodiversity, we damage another aspect. Five arguments which attempt to ground our moral concern for biodiversity are reviewed and critiqued, not only for their consistency but also for their power to move us to action. The final section of the paper shows how conflicts in the values of personal and environmental health can impair ethical action and especially policy formation.An earlier version of this paper was read at the conference on Agriculture, Food, and Human Values: Tradition and Change, Orlando, Florida, October 7–9, 1987.     

Journalists' views of advertiser pressures on agricultural news

All major journalism ethical codes explicitly state that journalists should protect editorial copy from undue influence by outside sources. However, much of the previous research on agricultural information has concentrated on what information various media communicate (gatekeeping studies) or communication's role in increasing innovation adoption (diffusion studies). Few studies have concentrated specifically on organizational and structural constraints that might adversely affect agricultural journalists' ethical standards; those that have, focus largely on farm magazines. A study of newspaper reporters who cover agricultural news found that the most pressing ethical concern is the effect of advertiser (agri-business) pressure on editorial copy, and that their concerns in general parallel those of farm magazine writers and editors. The majority reported being in situations in which they might be exposed to advertiser pressure, including pressures to change or withhold editorial copy. Large minorities suggested that advertising pressures affect the overall environment in which agricultural journalists work, and more than one in ten said they allow advertiser pressures to influence editorial decisions. The newspaper reporters who cover agricultural beats showed slightly more resistance to advertiser pressure than did farm magazine editors in a parallel study.     

Definition Procedures Have Little Effect on Performance of Environmental Classifications of Streams and Rivers

Mapped environmental classifications are defined using various procedures, but there has been little evaluation of the differences in their ability to discriminate variation in independent ecological characteristics. We tested the performance of environmental classifications of the streams and rivers of France that had been defined from the same environmental data using geographic regionalization and numerical classification of individual river valley segments. Test data comprised invertebrate assemblages, water chemistry, and hydrological indexes obtained from sites throughout France. Classification performance was measured by analysis of similarity (ANOSIM). Geometric regions defined by a regular grid and without regard to environmental variables and a posteriori classifications based on clustering the test datasets defined lower and upper bounds of performance for a given number of classes. Differences in classification performances were generally small. The ANOSIM statistics for the a posteriori classifications were around twice that of all environmental classifications, including geometrically defined regions. The hydro-ecoregions performed slightly better for the invertebrate data and the network classification performed slightly better for the chemistry and hydrological data. Our results indicate that environmental classifications that are defined using different procedures can be comparable in terms of their ability to discriminate variation of ecological characteristics and that alleged differences in performance arising from different classification procedures can be small relative to unexplained variation. We conclude that definition procedures might have little effect on the performance of large-scale environmental classifications and decisions over which procedures to use should be based primarily on pragmatic considerations.     

A Social Contract for Biotechnology: Shared Visions for Risky Technologies?

Future technological developmentsconcerning food, agriculture, and theenvironment face a gulf of social legitimationfrom a skeptical public and media, in the wakeof the crises of BSE, GM food, and foot andmouth disease in the UK (House of Lords, 2000). Keyethical issues were ignored by the bioindustry,regulators, and the Government, leaving alegacy of distrust. The paper examinesagricultural biotechnology in terms of a socialcontract, whose conditions would have to be fulfilled togain acceptance of novel applications. Variouscurrent and future GM applications areevaluated against these conditions. Successwould depend critically on how far a sharedvision can be found with the public. Tore-establish trust, significant changes areidentified in the planning and pursuit ofbiotechnology.