LONG-TERM PATTERNS OF WATER QUALITY IN A MANAGED WATERSHED IN OREGON: 1. SUSPENDED SEDIMENT1

The cumulative effects of forest management activities on water quality at a downstream point were monitored from 1972-1980 during development of a watershed for timber resources. Suspended sediment concentration and turbidity were measured at two hydrologic stations which bracketed a 10-km reach of the Middle Santiam River in the Western Cascades of Oregon as it flowed through an 8000-ha block of intensively managed forest land. Slope failures often accompany road building and harvesting in steep forested watersheds and pose the most serious threat to water quality. Although 180 km of road were constructed and 3400 ha of old-growth forests were harvested from slopes averaging over 60 percent, long-term changes in sediment yields remained undetectable during the period of measurement. The geologic characteristics of the basin and the road construction and maintenance techniques as prescribed by Oregon's forest practice regulations helped to minimize the occurrence of slope failures so that long-term changes in suspended sediment export rates did not occur. Throughout the nine-year measurement period, seven slope failures which added sediment directly to streams produced measurable short-term responses at the downstream sampling location, but these erosion events were too small and too infrequent to produce long-term changes in sediment yield from the watershed.     

Land Management Versus Natural Factors in Land Instability: Some Examples in Northern Spain

The objective of this work is to test a hypothesis formulated on the basis of former results which considers that there might be a “global geomorphic change,” due to activities related to land management and not determined by climate change, which could be causing an acceleration of geomorphic processes. Possible relationships between some geomorphic processes related to land instability (landslides or sediment generation) and potential triggering factors are analyzed in study areas in northern Spain. The analysis is based on landslide inventories covering different periods, as well as the determination of sedimentation rates. Temporal landslide and sedimentation rate trends are compared with different indicators of human activities (land-use change, logging, forest fires) and with potential natural triggers (rainfall, seismicity). The possible influence of the road network in the distribution of landslides is also analyzed. Results obtained show that there is a general increase of both landslide and sedimentation rates with time that cannot be explained satisfactorily by observed rainfall trends and even less by seismicity. Land-use change appears to be by far the main factor leading to land instability, with some changes producing up to a 12-fold increase of landslide rate. A relationship between road network and the spatial distribution of landslides has also been observed. These results do confirm the existence of an acceleration of geomorphic processes in the region, and also suggest that climate-related factors play a limited role in the changes observed.     

Quality and sustainability in the production process: A study of bakeries using an integrated multi-criteria method based on fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS

The objective of the present study is to evaluate, determine, and apply alternatives for improving the quality of the process and the product, with an emphasis on sustainable practices, using an integrated multi-criteria method. For this purpose, an analysis was conducted at a chain of bakeries, aiming to highlight bottlenecks in the production process and in the product. With the support of a literature review, four criteria and seven alternatives were defined to overcome these bottlenecks and, at the same time, contribute to the sustainability of the organization. For data analysis, six decision makers were interviewed and, following their evaluations, an integrated method based on fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS was created. The fuzzy AHP was adopted to establish the importance of the criteria, while the fuzzy TOPSIS was used to evaluate and classify the alternatives developed to bypass the bottlenecks. The results revealed that of the criteria, Criterion “Cr1 – Quality” was prioritized. On the other hand, the alternative with the best performance was “A3 – Physical Layout Reorganization”. Applying this alternative, the study demonstrates the results achieved such as reduction of errors and accident risks, as well as greater fluidity in the productive space. the present study also makes theoretical and managerial contributions to the field, bringing the theory closer to the reality of companies that operate in the food sector.     

HICKORY CREEK DRY RESERVOIR: A COMPRAOMISE DESIGN FOR BOTH FLOOD CONTROL AND NATURAL AREA PROTECTION1

Abstract: The proposed Hickory and Spring Creeks Flood Control and Recreation Project of the Illinois State Division of Water Resources and the Will County Forest Preserve District is desinged to provide flood control for Joliet, Illinos, and areas of the watershed to the east of the city and to provide open-space recreational land upstream from the Hickory Breek Dry Reservoir embankement. A viable forest ecosytem in the reservoir flood pool following construction is of major importance to the project. Factors of the environment influencing tree distribution and flood tolerance and a process for determining the best operational design to provide both flood control and the maintenance of a natural streamside forest ecosystem are described.     

A DECISION MODEL TO PREDICT SEDIMENT YIELD FROM FOREST PRACTICES1

ABSTRACT: In order to choose among “best management practices,” forest managers need to predict sediment yield to perennial streams following various forest land operations. The “universal soil loss equation” (USLE) is not directly applicable to forest operations because of the heterogenous soil surface conditions left by harvesting, site preparation, and planting. A sediment hazard index is proposed, to be based on the amount of exposed mineral soil and its proximity to streams. The model offered includes rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility and average land slope, together with the index W. A paired watershed experiment in the central Georgia Piedmont was used to estimate parameters in the model. The experimental basin (80 acres) was clearcut, drum roller chopped twice, and planted by machine. The standard error of estimate of sediment yield was computed to be about 50/lbs/ac per sampling period (four months). Use of William's erogivity index (storm flow times peak flow) reduced the standard error to 33/lbs/ac.     

PRIORITIZING WATER MANAGEMENT PROJECTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: AN EXPERIMENTAL METHODOLOGY

ABSTRACT: Southeast Asian nations with extensive water management systems have numerous candidate and ongoing programs and projects. They cannot possibly all be funded and implemented simultaneously in any serious way. Choices must be made. But how to select? What criteria can assist with the screening in an acceptable manner, particularly in the near absence of useful technical and economic information across them all. This paper suggests a methodology by which assessment criteria can be constructed which conforms to any given national information base and development needs. Criteria can be weighted one against the other in their relative importance. For each criterion a ranking scale puts the “best” (most, highest) at one end and the “worst” (least, lowest) at the other. Each candidate project is then subjected to these consistent assessment methods for a weighted “score.” Key criteria normally have surrogate measures depending on information available. Criteria are of three sorts: sheer volume, e.g., of a specific use, a benefit; ratios and relations, e.g., A as percent of B; and other more subjective criteria, e.g., regional or income distribution impacts. The basic criteria include, for example, time to full benefits (minimize), OM & R as percent of investment (minimize), and permanent rural jobs created (maximize).     

A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85.25% for 1995 and 80.89% for 1994. This makes the Expert System a very important tool for forest fire prevention planning.     

FOREST GROWTH IMPACT ON PEAK SNOW PACK MEASUREMENTS AT LONG TERM SNOW COURSES1

ABSTRACT: Snow course surveys in late winter provide stream‐flow forecasters with their best information for making water supply and flood forecasts for the subsequent spring and summer runoff period in mountainous regions of western North America. Snow survey data analyses are generally based on a 30‐year “normal” period. It is well documented that forest cover changes over time will affect snow accumulation on the ground within forests. This paper seeks to determine if forest cover changes over decades at long term snow courses decrease measured peak snow water equivalent (SWE) enough to affect runoff prediction. Annual peak SWE records were analyzed at four snow courses in two different forest types having at least 25 years of snowpack data to detect any decreases in SWE due to forest growth. No statistically significant decreases in annual peak SWE over time were found at any of these four snow courses. The wide range of annual winter precipitation and correspondingly highly variable peak snowpack accumulation, as well as many other weather and site variables, masked any minor trends in the data.     

Sociological edge effects: Spatial distribution of human impact in suburban forest fragments

Suburban forest fragments often experience heavy recreational and waste disposal use, with considerable damage to the vegetation. To suggest strategies for conservation of the forest flora, spatial distributions of human impact were described in 40 fragmentary stands in northern New Castle County, Delaware. The distribution of human impact showed a significant bias to the forest edge, with 95% of localized damage occurring in the first 82 m. Forms of impact related to lawn maintenance fell significantly closer to the edge than impacts related to recreation and showed the strongest edge orientation. Edge distances of campsites, vandalized trees, and firewood gathering were negatively correlated with distance to the nearest graded road, indicating the importance of road access. Several forms of impact were also clustered near footpaths, although distance to paths was independent of edge distance in all cases. In terms of penetration of the forest and severity of damage, human impact greatly exceeds natural edge effects reported for this community. These findings suggest that damage may be minimized by limiting road access and avoiding the creation of small forest fragments.     

脱贫攻坚视角下森林生态产品供给有效路径选择——基于黑龙江省的实证分析

以黑龙江省为例,在脱贫攻坚视角下,选取林业产业总产值、造林面积、林业固定资产投资完成额、林业系统年末从业人数、林业产业结构比例5个有关森林生态产品供给效率的测算指标,通过DEA模型对黑龙江省2001—2017年森林生态产品供给效率进行测算,并运用Tobit模型对该效率的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)黑龙江省森林生态产品供给效率的综合效率总体良好。(2)森林生态产品供给效率的综合效率与规模效率密切相关。(3)林业旅游与休闲服务收入比重和林业生态建设实际到位金额与供给效率显著正相关,而火灾次数与供给效率显著负相关。     

EROSION ON LOGGING ROADS IN REDWOOD CREEK,NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA1

Road-related erosion was estimated by measuring 100 randomly located plots on a 180 km road network in the middle reach of R'dwood Creek in northwestern California. The estimated erosion ratn of 177 m³ km^-1 was contrasted with two earlier studies in nearby parts of the same watershed. A sizable proportion of the great reduction in erosion from that reported in the earlier studies is attributed to changes in forest practice rules. Those changes have resulted in better placement and sizing of culverts and, especially, to less reliance on culverts to handle runoff from logging roads.     

Best Management Practices Influence Modeled Erosion Rates at Forest Haul Road Stream Crossings in Virginia

Forestry best management practices (BMPs) reduce sedimentation by minimizing soil erosion and trapping sediment. These practices are particularly important in relation to road construction and use due to the heightened potential for sediment delivery at stream crossings. This study quantifies the implementation and effectiveness of BMPs at 75 randomly selected forest road stream crossings on recent timber harvests in the Mountains, Piedmont, and Coastal Plain regions of Virginia. Road characteristics at stream crossings were used to estimate erosion using the Universal Soil Loss Equation for Forests and the Water Erosion Prediction Project for Roads. Stream crossings were evaluated based on the Virginia Department of Forestry (VDOF) BMP manual guidelines and categorized as BMP?, BMP‐standard, or BMP+ based on the quality of road template, drainage, ground cover, and stream crossing structure. BMP implementation scores were calculated for each stream crossing using VDOF audit questions. Potential erosion effects due to upgrading crossings were estimated by adjusting ground cover percentage and approach length parameters in the erosion models. Results indicate that erosion rates decrease as BMP implementation scores increase (p < 0.05). BMP‐standard and BMP+ ratings made up 83% of crossings sampled, with an average erosion rate of 6.8 Mg/ha/yr. Hypothetical improvements beyond standard BMP recommendations provided minimal additional erosion prevention.     

The multiple communities of low-carbon transition: an assessment of communities involved in forest carbon measurement

In recent writing on sociotechnical transitions theory communities are mostly conceived of as being local and place-based (“grassroots”). In this paper the implications for sociotechnical transitions theory of having multiple communities operating at different geographical scales, and with different objectives, are examined through a case study of low-carbon innovation in forests. The focus of analysis is the communities promoting sociotechnical innovations in the measurement of forest carbon. Innovation is being driven by the international United Nations climate policy initiative “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation” (REDD+). The rise of REDD+ policy has prompted a flurry of activity in related scientific research, especially in the field of remote sensing. But other types of community are also actively positioning themselves as experts in forest carbon measurement: there are multiple communities at work, each with varying claims to innovation and expertise, from local (place-based) forest communities to international communities of foresters and forest ecologists. Recognition of the multiple communities operating within sociotechnical systems usefully draws our attention to the politics of innovation.     

Tropical montane cloud forests: current threats and opportunities for their conservation and sustainable management in Mexico

Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) are among the most threatened ecosystems globally in spite of their high strategic value for sustainable development due to the key role played by these forests in hydrological cycle maintenance and as reservoirs of endemic biodiversity. Resources for effective conservation and management programs are rarely sufficient, and criteria must be applied to prioritize TMCF for conservation action. This paper reports a priority analysis of the 13 main regions of TMCF distribution in Mexico, based on four criteria: (1) forest quality, (2) threats to forest permanence, (3) threats to forest integrity, and (4) opportunities for conservation. Due to the diverse socio-environmental conditions of the local communities living in Mexican TMCF regions, their associated social characteristics were also evaluated to provide a background for the planning of conservation actions. A set of indicators was defined for the measurement of each criterion. To assign priority values for subregions within each main region, an international team of 40 participants evaluated all the indicators using multicriteria decision-making analysis. This procedure enabled the identification of 15 subregions of critical priority, 17 of high priority, and 10 of medium priority; three more were not analysed due to lack of information. The evaluation revealed a number of subjects that had hitherto been undetected and that may prove useful for prioritization efforts in other regions where TMCF is similarly documented and faces equally severe threats. Based on this analysis, key recommendations are outlined to advance conservation objectives in those TMCF areas that are subjected to high pressure on forest resources.     

修正的BP神经网络森林火灾成灾面积预测研究

以1997-2012年《中国林业统计年鉴》的全国森林火灾成灾面积为依据,应用BP神经网络模型对成灾面积进行了预测,对预测方法进行了检验.在此基础上,利用残差提出了修正的BP神经网络模型,并对预测方法进行了改进.研究结果表明,修正的BP神经网络预测精度高于BP神经网络,预测相对误差平均为7.2％,可应用于森林火灾成灾面积的预测.     

VMS在旅游公路景观影响评价中的应用

应用美国林务局的“风景资源管理系统”（VMS）对贾登峪-禾木乡旅游公路进行了景观影响评价。结果表明，从处于低位的观察点来看，山体的不同垂直位置承受的工程活动强度不同。山体的上半部能承受一定强度的工程活动，受公路建设的影响轻微；但山体的中下部能承受的工程活动有限，受公路建设的影响较大。具体分析表明，公路设计的老路方案和四级路方案对泰加林山体的景观影响程度基本相同。     

Biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires in the Deccan Plateau, India

Forest fires constitute one of the most serious environmental problems in several forested regions of India. In the Indian sub-continent, relatively few studies have focused on the assessment of biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires at a landscape scale and the spatial aspects of these relationships. In this study, we used fire count data sets from satellite remote sensing data covering 78 districts over four different states of the Deccan Plateau, India, for assessing the underlying causes of fires. Spatial data for explanatory variables of fires pertaining to topography, vegetation, climate, anthropogenic and accessibility factors have been gathered corresponding with fire presence/absence. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the probability of the presence of fires as a function of the explanatory variables. Results for fire area estimates suggested that, of the total fires covering 47,043km(2) that occurred during the year 2000 for the entire Indian region, 29.0% occurred in the Deccan Plateau, with Andhra Pradesh having 13.5%, Karnataka 14.7%, Kerala 0.1%, and Tamilnadu 1.15%. Results from the logistic regression suggest that the strongest influences on the fire occurrences were the amount of forest area, biomass densities, rural population density (PD), average precipitation of the warmest quarter, elevation (ELE) and mean annual temperature (MAT). Among these variables, biomass density (BD) and average precipitation of the warmest quarter had the highest significance, followed by others. These results on the best predictors of forest fires can be used both as a strategic planning tool to address broad scale fire risk concerns, and also as a tactical guide to help forest managers to design fire mitigation measures at the district level.     

Spatially Varying Determinants of Farmland Conversion Across Qiantang Watershed, China

This paper employed geographically weighted regression (GWR) to characterize the determinants of farmland conversion at administrative scale between 1994 and 2003 across Qiantang watershed, China. Six determinants were identified: total area of forest, distance to highway, distance to second road, distance to river, population, and gross domestic product. Relationships between these identified determinants and farmland conversion showed great spatial non-stationarity, since their character, nature, and strength varied significantly across space. Typically, for cities whose development was heavily relied on road infrastructure development, the impacts of “distance to second road” and “distance to river” was negative. However, in mountainous areas, the restriction of terrain factors led to positive impacts from these two variables. For areas undergoing rapid socio-economic development, farmland conversion was accelerated by population growth and economic development. However, for more urbanized regions, a slow-down rate of farmland conversion would be expected. Our study highlighted that the problem of spatial non-stationarity should be addressed when qualifying the determinants of farmland conversion. Linking our results within the context of farmland protection, we argue that implementing local-specific land management practices, instead of the current one-size-fits-all framework, is the key for the success of farmland protection in China.     

Road Erosion and Delivery Index (READI): A Model for Evaluating Unpaved Road Erosion and Stream Sediment Delivery

The Road Erosion and Delivery Index (READI) is a new geographic information system–based model to assess erosion and delivery of water and sediment from unpaved road networks to streams. READI quantifies the effectiveness of existing road surfacing and drain placements in reducing road sediment delivery and guides upgrades to optimize future reductions. Roads are draped on a digital elevation model and parsed into hydrologically distinct segments. Segments are further divided by engineered drainage structures. For each segment, a kinematic wave approximation generates runoff hydrographs for specified storms, with discharge directly to streams at road–stream crossings and onto overland‐flow plumes at other discharge points. Plumes are attenuated by soil infiltration, which limits their length, with delivery occurring if plumes intersect streams. Sediment production and sediment delivery can be calculated as a relative dimensionless index. READI predicts only a small proportion of new drains and new surfacing results in the majority of sediment delivery reductions. The model illustrates how the spatial relationships between road and stream networks, controlled by topography and network geometries, influence patterns of road–stream connectivity. READI was applied in seven northern California basins. The model was also applied in a recent burn area to examine how reduced hillslope infiltration can result in increased hydrologic connectivity and sediment delivery.     

基于林农参与式森林经营培训的影响评价——以福建山连村为例

森林参与式经营在林农林业生产中起着重要的作用。针对当前公众参与政策制定不足的现状,通过对案例点开展参与式森林经营管理培训实践的分析,认识到森林参与式培训对林农经营森林资源的意义和作用,了解并发现林农对现行森林资源管理政策的需求以及当前政策中存在的问题。研究表明,森林参与式培训效果作用明显,资源管理政策缺乏有效的公众参与,导致政策设定有失合理。提出对策建议,以期对参与式森林经营管理培训的推广提供一定的实践意义。