A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized.The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,–1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios. Published on line     

Valuing regional geoscientific data acquisition programmes: addressing issues of quantification,uncertainty and risk

Geological surveys worldwide are involved with research in support of sustainable mineral resource development.The socio-economic benefits to be derived from these activities, however, continue to raise organisational and government sector questions. Fundamental questions include whether or not the resources committed are appropriate and in economic balance with the total benefits to be derived. Another question concerns the degree to which such services should be funded by the community at large. These questions in turn raise important issues regarding the role and cost of geological surveys, the impact of their services, and how they should maximise community benefit from their activities and expertise. To assess the value of geoscientific information,standard valuation processes need to be modified. This paper reports on a methodology designed to quantify the 'worth' of programmes upgrading regional geoscientific infrastructure. An interdisciplinary approach is used to measure the impact of geoscientific information using quantitative resource assessment, computer-based mineral potential modelling, statistical analysis and risk quantification to model decision-processes and assess the impact of additional data. These modelling stages are used to address problems of complexity,uncertainty and credibility in the valuation of geoscientific data. A case study demonstrates the application of the methodology to generate a dollar value for current regional data upgrade programmes in the Geological Survey of Queensland. The results obtained are used for strategic planning of future data acquisition programmes aimed at supporting mineral resource management and stimulating effective exploration activity.     

Water resource pricing: Policy options

This paper critically examines pricing policy options for water resources and attempts to derive an operationally feasible and socially desirable pricing structure for this important resource. Marginal cost pricing options are studied under different economic and resource conditions, such as inflation, constrained water resources and price distortions in an economy. Options such as pricing of water at its ‘real’ resource value, ‘social’ pricing, and pricing to reflect intangible benefits are also examined.     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

GIS在矿产资源评价中的应用

在矿产资源评价领域中,GIS的应用受到广泛的关注。作为一种地理学领域的信息系统,综合其它地质勘探、物探、化学等多种方法进行分析、判断,对矿产资源进行全面评价。讨论了GIS在矿产资源评价应用中的进展、作用、思路与方法以及应用过程中的关键问题。     

Resources policies in Australia

Developments in Australia's resource industries in recent years have raised policy issues not previously encountered, and their consideration has been superimposed onto traditional policies affecting resource production and use. This review of Australia's policies on resources - here meaning minerals and energy policies - looks at the objectives of these policies and their interrelationships. It considers issues such as management, development objectives, investment, taxation, environment and processing, and likely future developments.     

Effect of tax laws on mineral exploration in Canada

Changes since 1972 in Canadian federal and provincial tax laws have eliminated many of the prior tax incentives offered to the mining industry. These changes provide an opportunity to study the effect of tax laws on a country's mineral resource development by comparing trends in mineral exploration in various provinces with adjoining regions, and by comparing these results with firm behaviour that would be expected from microeconomic analysis. Mineral producers have sought higher, more stable returns, resulting in shifts of exploration into political regions with more favourable and less changeable tax policies. Future supplies of mineral raw materials from a political region are dependent on current exploration effort, which is in turn influenced by the region's tax laws.     

PLANNING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT ON LAKE EUTROPHICATION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changing nutrient inputs through land use management, waste water treatment, or effluent diversion are not clear, and managers are discovering that decisions which were effective in reversing eutrophication for one lake are often unsuccessful when applied to another. Simple empirical relationships are often used to predict the impact of management decisions. Errors in estimation could result in either substantial costs for overdesign or failure to meet desired eutrophication levels. This paper presents and illustrates a methodology to evaluate the impact of land use and water resource management decisions on lake eutrophication. The problems of worth of additional information, and uncertainty of estimates were handled within a cost-effectiveness framework. The probability of exceeding a critical level of eutrophication was considered as a measure of effectiveness. The cost criterion is the expected value of opportunity costs, costs of analysis and costs of additional information. Uncertainty analysis techniques were used to estimate the effectiveness of various management alternatives. Bayesian methods can be utilized to determine the worth of additional information. The methodology was applied to Beseck Lake, Connecticut, and the cost and effectiveness measures estimated for a number of land management alternatives. Worth of additional information was not determined in this initial effort in uncertainty analysis for lake eutrophication management.     

Learning-by-catching: uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species’ population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager's species-control efforts provide two potential benefits: (1) a direct benefit of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect benefit of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these benefits, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect benefit of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We find that the indirect benefit—the value of information to reduce uncertainty—is likely to be quite large.     

An analysis of future platinum resources,emissions and waste streams using a system dynamic model of its intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks

Platinum is increasingly used intentionally and non-intentionally in several applications. This has raised the concern about its future resources, emissions and losses during its life cycle. On the one hand, increasing platinum emissions might affect human health. On the other hand, the accumulated platinum in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials as a result of the emissions, losses and the utilization of secondary materials can be seen as potential resources for platinum. This paper is aimed at (1) analyzing the long term impacts of the use of platinum intentionally and non-intentionally on its future demand and supply, release to the environment and accumulation in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials and (2) quantifying the amount of platinum in secondary materials that would be available for platinum future supply. The analysis is carried out on a global level using a system dynamic model of platinum intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks. The analysis is based on four scenarios for the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). The results show that platinum demand is increasing overtime in all scenarios at different rates and its identified resources are expected to deplete before the end of the century with or without the introduction of FCVs. The release of platinum to the environment and the accumulation in soil are expected to decrease when conventional ICE vehicles is replaced by FCVs. The amount of platinum accumulated in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials by the time platinum is depleted are more than double its identified resources and would be potential resources for platinum that are available in different parts of the world. The methodology presented in this paper can be used in the assessment of other technologies and other metals.     

Gearing-up governance for sustainable development: Patterns of policy appraisal in UK central government

The UK is reportedly an international leader in the application of environmental policy appraisal (EPA). From the late 1980s until 2004, UK central government sought to produce ex ante assessments of the potential environmental impacts of different policy options. Critics maintain that EPA had a very limited impact on policy-making activities in Whitehall departments. However, the empirical basis for these claims is surprisingly thin. This paper seeks to better understand what facilitated or retarded EPA by looking at its use in Whitehall, with the aim being to draw lessons for the UK's new and more integrated appraisal regime, as well as similar systems in the European Union. The paper finds that the implementation of EPA was both weak and highly sectorised, and that there is an underlying resistance to policy appraisal per se in Whitehall. These weaknesses urgently need to be addressed otherwise new systems of integrated appraisal will not deliver what is expected of them.     

Assessing who gains and who loses from natural resource policy: Distributional information and the public participation process

Recent legislation mandates an increased role for public participation in natural resource policy making. This paper presents an operational way to provide those impacted with relevant information and to enable public officials to assess public reaction to proposed policies. The methodology transforms results obtained from a multisector model of income formation and distribution into positive economic measures of distributional impacts. The usefulness of the methodology is illustrated in the context of a policy to increase coal surface mining on public lands.     

The resource base and mercury — a fresh perspective

Inadequacies in the knowledge base seriously hamper discussion of the resource problem. Following a mercury-centered explanation of the problems of estimates, resource limits and of calculation of figures for different categories of resources and reserves, the article attempts to clarify the roles that theoretical and empirical knowledge have in structuring the options within the resource system.     

The cumulative dimensions of impact in resource regions

The development of mineral and energy resources worldwide has placed pressure on regional environments, economies and communities. The cumulative impacts, or cumulative effects, arising from overlapping development have stretched political systems that have traditionally been geared toward the regulation and management of individual resource developments, presenting challenges for policy makers, resource developers and civil society actors. An equally challenging task has been realisation of the potential development dividends of mineral and energy resources in the areas of business development, infrastructure, human development or the management of resource revenues. This paper introduces a special issue on ‘Understanding and Managing Cumulative Impacts in Resource Regions’. The special issue interrogates the effectiveness of new and traditional policy responses, explores methods and strategies to better respond to cumulative impacts, and details practical examples of collaborative and coordinated approaches. Papers cover a range of environmental, economic and social issues, geographical regions, commodities, and conceptual approaches. This introductory paper introduces the cumulative impact issues that have manifest in resource regions, critically appraises current conceptions of cumulative impacts, and details management and policy responses to address the cumulative dimensions of impact.     

Sustainable value assessment of farms using frontier efficiency benchmarks

Appropriate assessment of firm sustainability facilitates actor-driven processes towards sustainable development. The methodology in this paper builds further on two proven methodologies for the assessment of sustainability performance: it combines the sustainable value approach with frontier efficiency benchmarks. The sustainable value methodology tries to relate firm performance to the use of different resources. This approach assesses contributions to corporate sustainability by comparing firm resource productivity with the resource productivity of a benchmark, and this for all resources considered. The efficiency is calculated by estimating the production frontier indicating the maximum feasible production possibilities. In this research, the sustainable value approach is combined with efficiency analysis methods to benchmark sustainability assessment. In this way, the production theoretical underpinnings of efficiency analysis enrich the sustainable value approach. The methodology is presented using two different functional forms: the Cobb–Douglas and the translog functional forms. The simplicity of the Cobb–Douglas functional form as benchmark is very attractive but it lacks flexibility. The translog functional form is more flexible but has the disadvantage that it requires a lot of data to avoid estimation problems. Using frontier methods for deriving firm specific benchmarks has the advantage that the particular situation of each company is taken into account when assessing sustainability. Finally, we showed that the methodology can be used as an integrative sustainability assessment tool for policy measures.     

Privatizing the minerals sector

The end of the Cold War presents new challenges for the dynamics associated with mineral resources development. Broader approaches are needed to help mineral rich developing countries develop their minerals sector. These countries need to embark upon programmes of policy reform and privatization in order to make their mineral resources industries more efficient and responsive to free market forces (such as supply and demand and price), and to turn mineral sector decision making over to the private sector. This article examines the use of policy reform and privatization strategies to increase mineral resource production in developing countries, thereby contributing to both developing country economic growth and developed country access to mineral supplies .     

Imperatives for attracting investment and technology in the Indian mining sector

In India, the mineral resource inventory and the production of a large number of important minerals have registered significant increases during the last few decades. Yet the country continues to be a net importer of many high value and scarce minerals and metals, like gold, diamond, and several base metals. Exploration and development of the resources of these minerals are technology- and capital-intensive. To bring technology and capital through foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Indian mineral sector, it is imperative to lay stress on: accurate resource estimation and categorization, as well as realistic projection of the true values; rationalization of legislative measures based on R&D studies and reorganization of the implementation machinery; conducive tax structure; notification of acts and rules applicable to offshore mineral resources; time-frames for granting licences and leases; encouragement to labor productivity by rationalizing labor laws; reforms in the monetary system to increase market competitiveness of Indian minerals; and judicial reforms. FDI in the Indian mineral sector is important to firm up the knowledge-base of mineral resources and their optimum exploitation.     

METAL RESOURCES OF DEEP SEA NODULES

The deep ocean floor represents the latest frontier of knowledge about global mineral resources. The ocean environment poses unique problems for mineral resource development - problems of resource assessment, adaptation of mining technology, and management of resources common to all of mankind. In the first of three related articles on the mineral resources of the ocean, Mr. Odunton assesses the current state of knowledge about the nature and extent of marigenous minerals. He examines the processes of formation, the composition, and the regional distribution of ferromanganese nodules, which represent the most promising of these minerals at present. Attention is also given to the considerations involved in the location, evaluation and exploitation of nodule deposits. Future articles will review ocean mining technology and the economic and policy issues involved in the development of ocean mineral resources.     

自然资源估价及其在国民经济发展中的作用

自然资源无价、资源产品低价导致资源需求过度膨胀,资源浪费严重,环境污染加剧.自然资源产权市场化、多元化是解决这一问题的关键,也是我国经济发展的必然趋势.自然资源估价是资源市场化、多元化的价值依据.自然资源估价不同于资源产品定价,既要考虑资源的价值又要考虑资源的稀缺性、丰饶度、地理位置等因素.自然资源估价关系到资源的合理开发利用和环境保护问题,对我国的社会主义现代化进程和人民生活水平的提高将构成重大影响.     

元素赋存状态的研究及其在矿产资源综合利用中的意义

元素赋存状态的研究是指研究元素在矿石中的存在状态，且尽可能对其进行定量研究的工作。目前元素赋存状态的研究手段很多，不同的矿山和企业可根据实际情况有选择地采用。我国是资源短缺型国家，元素赋存状态的研究是资源合理有效利用的关键，可以避免盲目开采对资源的浪费和经济上的损失。