DESIGN OF DESALTING PLANTS FOR CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION1

ABSTRACT The selection of an evaporator design must reflect the balancing of captial cost (primarily in heat exchanger surface and vessels) against operating cost (primarily steam cost) to achieve minimum cost. In a conjunctive plant the tendency is to select a low-capital cost, high-operating cost plant. In addition, it is advantageous to use a high-capacity plant which needs to be operated much less of the time than a plant which is sized just at the needed rate. For example, in the study of a possible system to satisfy a future increase of 450 MGD in water supply to New York Qty, a plant of 750 MGD capacity was selected as optimum. This plant, of the advanced VTE-MSF process type, would have a performance ratio of 9 lb product/1000 Btu as compared to 10-13 normally used for base-loaded plants. Steam would be supplied by a multi-unit dual-purpose nuclear power plant. The most economical type of energy supply would be “interruptible”; the steam would be used by a low pressure turbine to generate electricity during periods of peak electrical demand but would be available to the desalting plant at other times. The low pressure turbine would be available as spinning reserve during desalting plant operation. It is estimated that the desalting plant would have a load factor of 27 per cent over its life.     

A COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAM FOR OPTIMIZING CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION OF DESALTING PLANTS1

ABSTRACT .Desalting plants can provide a means of firming up erratic natural supplies when properly operated in conjunction with existing water supply reservoir systems. Since the natural inflow is variable, the choice of when to run the desalting plant is difficult. If the plant is turned on too late, a shortage may result; or if the plant runs too long, costly water may be wasted. A computer program is described that can help water planners find an optimal operating rule, i.e., a policy that tells when to turn the plant on and off to meet a given demand. Criteria for defining the firm water yield of the system (with and without desalting) are first defined. The logic of the program is then described. The program, written in FORTRAN IV, successively simulates operation of the given size reservoir-desalting plant system under control of various operating rules and selects the optimal rule as the one which produces the required firm water yield at the least unit cost. The optimal plant size and the staging of construction can also be studied by making a series of computations. Applications of the Operating Rule Program to water systems in California, Utah and New York are described. The studies show that, compared with base load operation, substantial savings are possible if optimum intermittent conjunctive operation of the desalting plant is followed.     

Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation

Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in Morocco as in many other parts of the world. For the implementation of an effective water management, knowledge about farmers' demand for irrigation water is crucial to assess reactions to water pricing policy, to establish a cost-benefit analysis of water supply investments or to determine the optimal water allocation between different users. Previously used econometric methods providing this information often have prohibitive data requirements. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is adjusted to derive a demand function for irrigation water along farmers' willingness to pay for one additional unit of surface water or groundwater. An application in the Middle Draa Valley in Morocco shows that the method provides reasonable results in an environment with limited data availability. For analysing the censored survey data, the Least Absolute Deviation estimator was found to be a more suitable alternative to the Tobit model as errors are heteroscedastic and non-normally distributed. The adjusted CVM to derive demand functions is especially attractive for water scarce countries under limited data availability.     

ON THE CAPACITY-EXPANSION OF DESALINATION PLANTS AND STORAGE TANKS1

ABSTRACT A mathematical programming model is structured to find the optimal time and capacity expansion path of desalination plants and storage tanks for a hypothetical community which depends on desalination as its sole, or major, water supply source. The objective is to determine the least costly combination of sues and times of installation (of both desalting plants and storage tanks) which can meet a rising water demand over a finite planning horizon. The optimality criterion used in the model is based on two major economic elements: the economies of scale inherent in such facilities and the time-value of money represented by the interest rate, the former favoring large capacities and the latter small capacities. The model is applied using three population growth patterns and two interest rates. The water demand components for every year in the planning period are computed using empirical formulas which are based on population and other basic data. The model is solved for each of the above cases with the aid of a computer program based on the method of feasible conjugate directions. The results clearly reflect the balance between the economies of scale and the time-value of money under every demand growth function.     

A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL OF DESALTING1

ABSTRACT The Office of Saline Water, which has federal responsibility for developing low-cost, saline sources of fresh water, has recognized the need for an improved method of forecasting the future potential of desalting in this country. The magnitude of the role of desalting will influence the plans of federal, state, and local water resource agencies and the research and development programs of manufacturers. A dynamic simulation model has been developed by Arthur D. Little, Inc. under contract by OSW to translate relevant factors of water supply and demand into a forecast of desalting potential. The model projects the needs for desalting in 20 hydrologic regions of the U.S. Model performance has thus far been demonstrated by the development of a forecast and a battery of related sensitivity tests. Current results indicate the following potential desalting capacities: 225 MGD in 1980; 2,250 MGD in 2000; and 7,000 MGD in 2020. Significant improvements in desalting economics promise to increase these potentials by a factor of four or five by 2000-2020. Model inputs and results are continuing to be refined. When completed, OSW will have a dynamic tool with which to guide its R&D program.     

OPTIMIZATION IN MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT. The design of a municipal water supply system may involve utilizing singly or in combination a conventional water supply, a desalted water supply, and a supply from a recharged aquifer reservoir. Optimization of the design requires a model formulated in a way that modern methods of systems analysis can be used. This study concerns the formulation, solution, and evaluation of a mathematical model of a municipal water supply system that includes a supply from a variable quality output desalting plant. The combined system is operated in conjunction with an artificially recharged aquifer reservoir. Also considered are short periods of water shortages. The model is set up in an approximate linear programming format, and the optimum solution (minimum cost) is found. The model is tested by applying it to the design of a supply system to meet the 1985 estimated water demand of the city of Lincoln, Nebraska. Results of this test indicate that the artificial reservoir and the existing conventional supply system are capable of supplying that demand during all but the peak period. An electrodialysis desalting system is used in this analysis. It is competitive only when the length of transmission pipeline for a conventional supply system approaches 90 miles. The model is formulated in a general way so that it can be applied to almost all situations encountered in municipal water supply design, as well as to the specific system designated for this study.     

A SURVEY OF STATE WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAMS IN THE U.S.1

ABSTRACT: Adequate water supplies are critical to the maintenance of a community's health and economic well-being. Across the nation communities are struggling to meet an expanding demand for water from municipal, industrial, agricultural, recreation, water quality, and power generation users. As the demand grows and communities actively compete with one another for a limited water supply, states are being called upon to help solve the problem. One possible solution that is being used in many areas is the development and implementation of a water conservation program to stretch the limited supply as far as possible. using a mailed survey, state water conservation programs and some of the characteristics of the different programs were documented. Responses to the nationwide survey were obtained from all 50 states. The specific water conservation program elements on which information was received from the survey included laws and restricted use, community assistance, education, research, and other services. Recommendations for states developing or considering the development of a water conservation program are outlined.     

NEW METHODS OF MODELING WATER AVAILABILITY FOR AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE U.S. CORNBELT1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on new methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural an water planning models to study future water availability for agriculture, an essential element of sustainability. The study is based on the integration of models of water supply and demand, and of crop growth and irrigation management. Consistent modeling assumptions, available databases, and scenario simulations are used to capture a range of possible future conditions. The linked models include WATBAL for water supply; CERES, SOYGRO, and CROPWAT for crop and irrigation modeling; and WEAP for water demand forecasting, planning and evaluation. These models are applied to the U.S. Cornbelt using forecasts of climate change, agricultural production, population and GDP growth. Results suggest that, at least in the near term, the relative abundance of water for agriculture can be maintained under climate change conditions. However, increased water demands from urban growth, increases in reservoir evaporation and increases in crop consumptive use must be accommodated by timely improvements in crop, irrigation and drainage technology, water management, and institutions. These improvements are likely to require substantial resources and expertise. In the highly irrigated basins of the region, irrigation demand greatly exceeds industrial and municipal demands. When improvements in irrigation efficiency are tested, these basins respond by reducing demand and lessening environmental stress with an improvement in system reliability, effects particularly evident under a high technology scenario. Rain-fed lands in the Cornbelt are not forced to invest in irrigation, but there is some concern about increased water-logging during the spring and consequent required increased investment in agricultural drainage. One major water region in the Cornbelt also provides a useful caveat: change will not necessarily be continuous and monotonic. Under one GCM scenario for the 2010s, the region shows a significant decrease in system reliability, while the scenario for the 2020s shows an increase.     

CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE JAKARTA REGION,INDONESIA1

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the degree of economic inefficiency of the current institutional arrangements for surface and ground water management in meeting urban water demand in the Jakarta region. A numerical model of integrated surface and ground water management is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) software. The model maximizes the net present value of social benefits from piped water and ground water consumption across all users over time from 1999 to 2025. Four policy scenarios are examined: the status quo, the social planner's solution, and two ground water pumping quota scenarios: an aggregate ground water pumping quota and a partial quota applied to commercial and industrial users. Three variations in each policy scenario are considered: investment in water infrastructure of the Jakarta water enterprise (PAM Jaya), water demand growth, and discount rates. The status quo, depending on the investment option, the growth of water demand, and the discount rate, results in a 7.4 to 47.8 percent loss in economic efficiency relative to the social planner's solution. The partial quota is the most feasible, applicable, and manageable scenario. The optimal investment option could increase the volume of piped water supply and reduce the cost of water production. The volume of water delivery could increase by up to 156 percent, but it implies only a 35 percent increase in the surface raw water demands above the current level. However, it does not significantly reduce cumulative ground water extraction over the time period considered.     

Characterizing Drought in Irrigated Agricultural Systems: The Surface Water Delivery Index (SWDI)

Quantifying surface water shortages in arid and semiarid agricultural regions is challenging because limited water supplies are distributed over long distances based on complex water management systems constrained by legal, economic, and social frameworks that evolve with time. In such regions, the water supply is often derived in a climate dramatically different from where the water is diverted to meet agricultural demand. The existing drought indices which rely on local climate do not portray the complexities of the economic and legal constraints on water delivery. Nor do these indices quantify the shortages that occur in drought. Therefore, this research proposes a methodological approach to define surface water shortages in irrigated agricultural systems using a newly developed index termed the Surface Water Delivery Index (SWDI). The SWDI can be used to uniformly quantify surface water deficits/shortages at the end of the irrigation season. Results from the SWDI clearly illustrate how water shortages in droughts identified by the existing indices (e.g., SPI and PDSI) vary strongly both within and between basins. Some surface water entities are much more prone to water shortages than other entities based both on their source of water supply and water right portfolios.     

THE PRODUCTION OF WATER FROM GEOTHERMAL RESERVOIRS: SOME ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Liquid dominated geothermal systems are expected to account for most of the growth in geothermal energy production in the coming decades. Production of water from such systems could significantly augment fresh water supplies. The feasibility of water exploitation is clouded by potential problems related to seismic impacts, land subsidence and the composition of geothermal brines. If these problems can be overcome at little cost, desalination of brines may be feasible. Estimates of water production costs are presented for a variety of desalination technologies, plant sizes and brine water compositions. These estimates show that production costs will range from $139.10/A.F. to $436.00/A.F. at the plant boundary. Economies of scale and brine composition are important determinants of cost. Production costs are substantially in excess of the value of water in alternative uses. However, in certain unique situations, it may be efficient to desalt brines for use in upgrading the quality of municipal water, industrial process water and irrigation water. Unique situations aside, geothermal brines are not likely to provide an economical source of fresh water in the absence of striking changes in the patterns of supply and demand for water.     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

DESALTING SALINE WATER FOR IRRIGATION A CASE STUDY,COACHELLA AREA,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT .A case study was performed to evaluate potential applications of desalted saline water for agriculture using 2 distillation type processes and 2 membrane type processes. The investigation determined the costs and benefits associated with desalting saline water at concentrations of 1,500, 900, 400, 200, and 50 ppm. Benefits from desalting are generated by shifts to more profitable crops, reduced costs for drainage, and reduction in fertilizer and labor requirements with better quality water. Costs are based on the project features such as desalting plants, raw water diversion facilities, storage reservoirs, conveyance and distribution systems, brine disposal, blending facilities, and gypsum addition systems. Hydrologic studies determined the crop irrigation requirements, water demand schedules, desalted water storage requirements, brine disposal requirements, and size of facilities required. Reconnaissance design layouts were made for producing desalted water using a combination of 14 schemes. The study also included a review of irrigation practices. The benefit-cost ratios range from 0.4 to 1.0 for 1,500 ppm irrigation water to 0.8 to 1.0 for 50 and 200 ppm water. Investment costs per acre are high, ranging from $12,900 to $20,900. Irrigation benefits are based on the increase in production from a desert condition with no water supply to the irrigation conditions studied.     

MANAGING ROTATIONAL CANAL WATER SUPPLIES ON THE FARM1

ABSTRACT: A procedure to determine optimal irrigation scheduling strategies under rotational water delivery systems is presented. The methodology involves integration of water delivery amount and frequency, irrigation management strategies, evapotranspiration sequences and crop-evapotranspiration-production functions to arrive at an optimal irrigation strategy. Application of the methodology to a farm in the service area of Western Yamuna Canal (India) where a two-stage system of rotation, one among the irrigation channels and the other among the farmers, is in vogue, reveals that maximum production is obtained with water application in a rotational manner (RI) rather than with irrigation in every or alternate supply periods. Increase in mean water supply which can be effected through improvement in on-farm conveyance and application systems, has a greater effect on yield than decrease in variance of the supply. Benefit cost analyses indicates that precision land leveling is more cost effective in increasing water supply as compared to water-course lining.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OF THE TSENGWEN CREEK WATERSHED IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public.     

THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF DUAL PURPOSE NUCLEAR DESALINATION OF GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: The economic feasibility of a large scale dual purpose (desalting water and power production) facility were evaluated. Although a site in the Tularosa basin of southern New Mexico was chosen as a case study for this analysis, it is believed that the approach and consequential results would be applicable to alternative sites in the Southwest. The basic project evaluated included: a) a ground water well field; b) a dual purpose, nuclear, desalination plant; c) a mineral recovery plant; and d) a reservoir for recreation and irrigation storage. Principle project outputs included electrical power, minerals, recreation, and water for either irrigated agricultural production or export to an adjoining river basin. Two alternative project designs were developed for detailed analysis. The first alternative encompassed all major project components. The results, in discounted net values used to assess the feasibility of the project, were essentially negative; that is, values were less than zero for full scale development. The net benefits ranged from $-986.57 million at a 5 percent discount rate, to $-1,137.528 million at a discount rate of 10 percent. In the second alternative, exportation of the desalted water from the Tularosa basin to two adjacent rivers was analyzed with somewhat better net benefits, ranging from $-382,527 million to $-478,612 million at the 5 and 10 percent discount rates.     

A LINEAR ANALYSIS OF AN URBAN WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

The use of linear programming as a planning tool for determining the optimal long-range development of an urban water supply system was explored. A stochastic trace of water demand was synthesized and used as an input to the model. This permitted evaluating the feasibility of imposing demand restrictions as an effective cost reduction mechanism. The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, was used as the urban model. The fundamental problem was to allocate limited water supplies from several sources to an urban load center to minimize costs and comply with system constraints. The study period covered twenty years, and findings indicate the planning direction for stage development during this period. Sensitivity analyses were performed on cost coefficients and demands. Thirteen sources were included in the initial computations. Conclusions were that linear programming and generated demand traces are useful tools for both short- and long-term urban water supply planning. Lowering peak demands results in long-range development of fewer sources of supply and more economic and efficient use of the supplies developed.     

ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN RECREATIONAL BENEFITS DUE TO SEDIMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: A travel cost model is developed to estimate the potential reductions in recreational benefits from sedimentation in Reelfoot Lake in northwestern Tennessee. In addition to the consumer surplus estimates generated by the model, three other aspects of the study were significant. First, the study applied a relatively untested methodology for deriving the opportunity cost of travel time. The study resulted in a value that is less than one-half of the Water Resource Council's “one-third of the wage rate” rule-of-thumb. Second, water quality perceptions were unsuccessfully incorporated into the model as a demand shifter. This raised questions as to the appropriate manner in which perceptions could be included in a travel cost model. Finally, a simple methodology was outlined by which estimates of the recreational value of Reelfoot Lake could be used to suggest how much cost could be justified for soil erosion control on agricultural land surrounding the lake.     

OPTIMIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES FOR IRRIGATION IN EAST JORDAN1

The paper describes an approach towards optimal allocation of surface and ground water resources to three agricultural areas in the Jordan Valley under conditions of scarce water supply. The optimizing model allocates water from three main rivers, each with reservoir storage, and from two ground water sources to three irrigation regions. Productivity of irrigation water, expressed as the net present value of the regional agricultural output, but allowing for crop water deficits, is first maximized using nonlinear programming. The allocation process then adopts techniques of linear programming to determine the least cost alternative based on the unit cost of water from each resource at each destination, as it varies with time.     

A Framework for Incorporating the Impact of Water Quality on Water Supply Stress: An Example from Louisiana,USA

Water of poor quality can directly impact the budget of water available for key user groups. Despite this importance, methods for quantifying the impact of water quality on water availability remain elusive. Here, we develop a new framework for incorporating the impact of water quality on water supply by modifying the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI). We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework by investigating the impact of high salinity waters on the availability of irrigation water for agriculture in Louisiana. The WaSSI was deconstructed into sectoral components such that the total available water supply could be reduced for a particular demand sector (agricultural irrigation in this example) based on available water quality information. The results for Louisiana highlight substantial impacts on water supply stress for farmers attributable to the landward encroachment of saline surface water and groundwater near the coast. Areas of high salinity near the coast also increased the competition for freshwater resources among the industrial, municipal, and agricultural demand sectors in the vicinities of the municipal areas of Lake Charles, Lafayette, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The framework developed here is easily adaptable for other water quality concerns and for other demand sectors, and as such can serve as a useful tool for water managers.