FLOOD PROOFING DECISIONS WITH UNCERTAIN EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The addition of flood proofing to other (structural and non-structural) flood damage reduction measures broadens the choice among existing alternatives for decision makers and consequently enables the possibility of improved expected net benefits from an overall flood damage reduction scheme. Planners are interested in more than just expected values of net benefits, however. The inherent riskiness of various alternative plans must be considered as well. Therefore, a partial equilibrium framework is specified for purposes of estimating means and variances of a measure of net benefits from flood proofing. The model is applied to selected communities in the Connecticut River Basin and sample computer results are provided.     

Flood Risk Perceptions and Overdevelopment in the Floodplain1

ABSTRACT: There is a long standing hypothesis that overdevelopment has occurred in the nation's floodplains due to imperfect information about the potential flood hazard, an expectation of disaster relief and anticipation of future structural protection. This hypothesis is investigated with multiple regression analysis of data for a case study area. In particular the question of whether floodplain residential property values are fully discounted for expected flood damages is addressed by considering the impact of the National Flood Insurance Program on property values. The extent to which flooding risk perceptions are based on low cost information such as distance from and elevation above the river is also considered. Finally, implications for floodplain management policy are discussed.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

LUMP SUM TAX LOSS REIMBURSEMENT UNDER THE THAMES RIVER FLOOD CONTROL COMPACT1

ABSTRACT: Under the terms of the Thames River Valley Flood Control Compact, Connecticut has been paying Massachusetts 40 percent of the annual property tax losses suffered by seven Massachusetts towns where four flood control structures were located. The permissable alternative of a single lump sum payment was investigated in the study summarized here. The lump sum payment should be the proportion of total benefits (flood control and recreation) from the four structures which Connecticut receives, multiplied by the present value of projected tax losses in the seven tom Flood control benefits and their distribution between the two states were fixed in the Compact, but a survey was necessary to determine recreational benefits and their distribution. Regression analysis of 1957 to 1978 tax loss data provided equations used to project future tax losses. Resent values of projected tax low were calculated using discount rates ranging from 6 to 12 percent. A plausible range of lump sum reinbursements as of 1979 was identified.     

DETERMINANTS OF LANDOWNER'S WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR FLOOD HAZARD REDUCTION1

ABSTRACT: Estimated benefits of flood control projects are typically limited to avoided property damages. However, the possibility that there are (1) benefits from reduced psychological stress among flood plain occupants, and (2) benefits to the community has long been recognized. A survey of landowners residing in a flood plain in Roanoke, Virginia, found that nonproperty considerations did help explain their expressed willingness to pay for flood control. Of particular importance was the respondents' concern for disruption of the community caused by possible flooding.     

A Rapid Response Survey to Characterize the Impacts of the 2017 High Water Event on Lake Ontario

In the spring and summer of 2017, communities along the Lake Ontario shoreline suffered from the worst flood event on record. In late May, daily water levels reached their highest point in over 100 years, and flooding continued throughout much of the summer as lake levels slowly declined, with inundation and erosion significantly impacting shoreline homes and businesses. In this work, we present results from a rapid response online survey of property owners along the New York Lake Ontario shoreline to quantify the perceived flood impacts of the 2017 extended high water event. The survey focused on the degree and spatial distribution of inundation and erosion; the duration and drivers of inundation; the associated damages to different property features, with an emphasis on shoreline protection; and the degree of disruption to business and other activities and services. Photographic documentation of inundation extent and property damage also was provided by survey respondents. We demonstrate the potential utility of this dataset by characterizing key features of inundation and erosion impacts across the shoreline, and by using classification and regression trees to explore the predictability of inundation and erosion based on property characteristics. This work is part of a larger effort to develop models of inundation and erosion that can support flood impact assessments across the shoreline and help communities better prepare for future extended high water events.     

IMPACT OF FLOOD HAZARD ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES IN GALT (CAMBRIDGE), ONTARIO1

ABSTRACT: This study is an examination of the relationship between flooding and property values for an urban community in southwestern Ontario which has a lengthy history of flooding. As well, peoples’perceptions of the effect of flooding on property values is discussed. Analysis of sales prices and assessment data demonstrated no statistically significant differences in values of property for residences located in high- and low-risk areas either before or after a major flood in 1974. With both the high- and low-risk areas, sales prices after the 1974 flood were significantly higher than sales prices before the flood. The perceived property values followed a similar pattern. We concluded that differences in flood risk and flood experience did not adversely affect actual or perceived long-term property values.     

THE EFFECT OF FLOOD PLAIN LOCATION ON PROPERTY VALUES: THREE TOWNS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY1

ABSTRACT: The persistence of development and settlement in flood plains and continued damages from flooding, raises the question of how property owners respond to flood plain location and whether property values reflect this response. Existing studies disagree on the significance of flood hazard for property values. This study evaluates the effect of flood plain location on assessed valuation and home value in three towns in New Jersey. A t-test on mean assessed value and value of owner-occupied units at block levels showed no statistically significant variation for flood prone and nonflood prone lands. Possible explanations are that homeowners do not know or perceive the risk of living in flood plains, assessors do not incorporate flooding into assessment criteria, and the National Flood Insurance Program subsidies and broadened financial markets may equalize property values.     

THE HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER EXPERIENCE IN NONSTRUCTURAL PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Engineering Center, Corps of Engineers, has been engaged in research, training, and project assistance in non-structural flood control planning for Corps offices across the United States since 1975. Lessons learned from this experience deal with the role of nonstructural measures in flood plain management, the role of creativity in analysis, the role of analysis, and tools for analysis. The role of nonstructural measures in flood control planning depends upon the scale of the problem, the nature of the measure, the degree of protection desired, and whether damage is to existing or future property. An earnest seeking for nonstructural opportunities, a field presence for their formulation, and compatbility with local infrastructure plans are prerequisite to creative use of nonstructural measures. Analysis is a necessary complement of creativity. Several tools for nonstructural analysis have been developed and applied to flood problems involving several hundred and several thousand structures.     

LAKE LEVEL CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT - A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The frequent high water levels in Chisago Chain of Lakes, located in east-central Minnesota, have caused extensive flood damages. Recent floods raised the concern of the local property owners and they pressured the Chisago County Board of Managers to initiate a study of alternative lake control levels. A study was carried out to identify potential flood control alternatives, screen out the most promising feasible alternatives, and recommend the most cost-effective flood control measure. Several flood control alternatives were considered - eight of them were analyzed and evaluated in detail. A statistical method was used to estimate the expected annual flood damages under existing and future conditions. The effect of all proposed control measures on the annual flood damage reductions (benefits) were determined. Detailed benefit/cost analyses were carried out to evaluate the economic feasibility of alternatives. The effect of potential flood control measures on the environment was also studied. The economic analysis of the most cost-effective alternative did not strongly support artificial lake level control, therefore the decision-making authorities were even more firm in their position to maintain the present condition and chose the Null Alternative as the most suitable alternative.     

Status report on flood warning systems in the United States

One of the major changes in flash-flood mitigation in the past decade is the number of communities that have implemented warning systems. The authors conducted a survey of 18 early-warning systems in the United States developed by communities or regions to provide protection against flash floods or dam failures. Problems revealed by the study included the following: equipment malfunctions, inadequate maintenance funding, inconsistent levels of protection and expenditure, inconsistent levels of expectations and formalization, varying levels of local commitment to the systems, underemphasis on response capability, and a tendency to over-rely on warning systems. The study also revealed some unanticipated benefits experienced by the survey communities: the warning systems serve as valuable data collection tools, a great deal of interagency cooperation has been demonstrated, and warning systems offer increased alternatives to structural modification projects. The interjurisdictional nature of drainage basins, the evolving roles of the various federal agencies involved in flood mitigation, and the lack of governmental standards of operations for flood warning systems are issues that must be considered as communities make decisions regarding the adoption of warning systems. The record on these systems is too short for a precise assessment of how successful they are; however, results of the study indicate that if the goal of reducing loss of life and property from flooding is to be achieved, warning systems must be only one part of a comprehensive flood loss reduction program.     

NEW DIRECTIONS IN FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Over the last 30 years, average annual riverine flood damages have exceed $2 billion. Damages associated with the Mississippi River Flood of 1993 exceeded $12 billion and these costs do not include the non-quantifiable, human impacts of this disaster. In a report submitted to the White House in June 1994, a federal interagency floodplain management review committee proposed better ways to manage the nation's floodplains. The committee indicated that the 1993 Mississippi River flood was the result of a significant hydrometeorological event, that federal flood control efforts in the Mississippi basin had prevented nearly $20 billion in potential damages, and that, in spite of federal flood damage reduction efforts, throughout the nation people and property remain at risk to inevitable future flooding. It recommended that the division of decision and cost-sharing responsibilities among federal, state and local governments be more clearly defined, and that the nation adopt a strategy of, sequentially, avoiding inappropriate use of the flood-plain, minimizing vulnerability to damage through both nonstruc-tural and structural means, and mitigating damages as they occur. The report did not call for abandonment of human use of the flood-plain but argued for full consideration of the economic, social and environmental costs and benefits of all future floodplain activity.     

Modeling the costs and benefits of dam construction from a multidisciplinary perspective

Although the benefits of dam construction are numerous, particularly in the context of climate change and growing global demand for electricity, recent experience has shown that many dams have serious negative environmental, human, and political consequences. Despite an extensive literature documenting the benefits and costs of dams from a single disciplinary perspective, few studies have simultaneously evaluated the distribution of biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical implications of dams. To meet the simultaneous demands for water, energy, and environmental protection well into the future, a broader view of dams is needed. We thus propose a new tool for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of dam construction based on multi-objective planning techniques. The Integrative Dam Assessment Modeling (IDAM) tool is designed to integrate biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical perspectives into a single cost/benefit analysis of dam construction. Each of 27 different impacts of dam construction is evaluated both objectively (e.g., flood protection, as measured by RYI years) and subjectively (i.e., the valuation of said flood protection) by a team of decision-makers. By providing a visual representation of the various costs and benefits associated with two or more dams, the IDAM tool allows decision-makers to evaluate alternatives and to articulate priorities associated with a dam project, making the decision process about dams more informed and more transparent. For all of these reasons, we believe that the IDAM tool represents an important evolutionary step in dam evaluation.     

MANAGEMENT OF FLOODING IN A FULLY-DEVELOPED,LOW-COST HOUSING NEIGHBORHOOD1

ABSTRACT: Within the flood plain of the lower reach of Peaks Branch, a stream in east Dallas Texas, 500 buildings would be partially inundated by the 100-year flood. The fully-developed watershed and flood plain mainly accommodate low-cost housing. Eight alternative flooding remedies, ranging from no action to stream channelization to complete redevelopment, are considered. The alternates are evaluated in terms of their relative safety, effects on neighborhoods, required relocations of families and businesses, initial costs, and maintenance costs. Creation of a stream-side greenway, offering lakes and parks, is recommended. This plan best balances costs and required relocations with community benefits, including flood protection.     

Evaluating the effects of local floodplain management policies on property owner behavior

Floodplain management programs have been adopted by more than 85% of local governments in the nation with designated flood hazard areas. Yet, there has been little evaluation of the influence of floodplain policies on private sector decisions. This article examines the degree to which riverine floodplain management affects purchase and mitigation decisions made by owners of developed floodplain property in ten selected cities in the United States. We find that the stringency of such policies does not lessen floodplain property buying because of the overriding importance of site amenity factors. Indeed, flood protection measures incorporated into development projects appear to add to the attractiveness of floodplain location by increasing the perceived safety from the hazard. Property owner responses to the flood hazard after occupancy involve political action more often than individual on-site mitigation. Floodplain programs only minimally encourage on-site mitigation by the owner because most owners have not experienced a flood and many are unaware of the flood threat. It is suggested that floodplain programs will be more effective in meeting their objectives if they are directed at intervention points earlier in the land conversion process.     

An Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Land Cover on Flood Losses along the Gulf of Mexico Coast from 1999 to 2009

Major coastal flooding events over the last decade have led decision makers in the United States to favor structural engineering solutions as a means to protect vulnerable coastal communities from the adverse impacts of future storms. While a resistance‐based approach to flood mitigation involving large‐scale construction works may be a central component of a regional flood risk reduction strategy, it is equally important to consider the role of land use and land cover (LULC) patterns in protecting communities from floods. To date, little observational research has been conducted to quantify the effects of various LULC configurations on the amount of property damage occurring across coastal regions over time. In response, we statistically examine the impacts of LULC on observed flood damage across 2,692 watersheds bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, we analyze statistical linear regression models to isolate the influence of multiple LULC categories on over 372,000 insured flood losses claimed under the National Flood Insurance Program per year from 2001 to 2008. Results indicate that percent increase in palustrine wetlands is the equivalent to, on average, a $13,975 reduction in insured flood losses per year, per watershed. These and other results provide important insights to policy makers on how protecting specific types of LULC can help reduce adverse impacts to local communities.     

MODELING FLOOD DAMAGE: CASE OF TOKAI FLOOD 20001

ABSTRACT: In conventional flood damage reduction studies, flood damage is usually estimated with a damage function according to the depth of inundation. However, this method may not reflect the conditions of each family residing in the floodplain because it ignores not only the distribution of flood damage but also the effect of building characteristics and residents' preparedness. This paper uses data from a questionnaire based survey (N= 3,036) conducted 17 months after the Tokai Flood of 2000 that caused disastrous losses to household properties. It provides a conceptual “doughnut structure” model of flood damage to houses and house contents and a mathematical basis for models to explore the determinants of flood damage. Besides the inundation depth, house type significantly affects both the house structural and content damage probabilities, while house ownership and house structure affect house damage probability but not house content damage probability at a given depth. Inundation depth, residing period, and household income significantly affect both house and content damage values. In addition, house ownership has a significant impact on the house damage value, while house structure has an impact on content damage value.     

A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FLOOD INDUCED CHANGES IN URBAN LAND VALUES1

ABSTRACT: By integrating literature from flood hazard research and urban economics a theoretical structure is developed to explain changes in residential land values following flood events. The negative aspects of the flood hazard are shown to be capitalized in the value of the property. It is further suggested that land values (i.e., capitalization) will vary both spatially across the floodplain and temporally depending on the frequency, severity and spatial characteristics of the flood event. Previous work in this area has not addressed the capitalization process explicitly and has not specifically examined the ability of the land market to recover. This may account for the contradictory findings in the published literature.     

STATE-OF-THE-ART OF ESTIMATING FLOOD DAMAGE IN URBAN AREAS1

ABSTRACT: With implementation of the Flood Insurance Act of 1968 many additional local flood protection projects are being considered. Consulting engineers and local agencies need consistent methods to estimate flood damage in order to perform feasibility studies. Federal agencies have a great deal of data and long experience in making damage estimates but no comprehensive guides are available at the local level. Curves of flood damages to different residential structure types are presented. The relationships in use by the U. S. Federal Insurance Administration are shown to be reasonable and are recommended for use as approximate guides. Additional research is recommended and discussion of the paper is invited in order to make additional data available in the literature.     

Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002

The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.