Beyond Rio: Sustainable energy scenarios for the 21st century

Reaching the economic, environmental and sustainability objectives of all societies requires overcoming several major energy challenges; it necessitates rapid progress in multiple areas. The scenario pathways presented in this paper describe transformative changes toward these goals, taking a broad view of the four main energy challenges faced by society in the 21st century: providing universal access to modern energy for all; reducing the impacts of energy production on human health and the environment; avoiding dangerous climate change; and enhancing energy security. The overarching objective of the paper is to provide policy guidance on how to facilitate the transformation of the energy system to achieve these multiple energy objectives. Particular focus is given to the required pace of the transformation at both the global and regional levels, and to the types of financial and policy measures that will be needed to ensure a successful transition. Synergies and trade‐offs between the objectives are identified, and co‐benefits quantified. The paper makes an important contribution to the scenario literature by approaching the global transition toward sustainable development in a more integrated, holistic manner than is common in other studies.     

Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.     

Another outlook into energy-growth nexus in Mexico for sustainable development: Accounting for the combined impact of urbanization and trade openness

This study corroborates the importance of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG-7), intended to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable energy for all, and SDG-8, designed to promote decent work and sustainable economic growth. This article is motivated by the highlighted SDGs and empirically explores the long-run and causality relationship between energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, and economic growth for annual frequency data from 1965 to 2021 for the case of Mexico. To this end, we leverage the use of fully modified ordinary least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares, and canonical regression estimation methods, while for the direction of causality, the gradual shift and wavelet coherence methods are used. According to the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), the bounds test traces a long-run relationship between the outlined variables over the sampled period. Empirical evidence validates the energy-induced growth hypothesis. This result resonates with the causality analysis, where energy consumption drives economic growth one way in Mexico. This suggests that Mexico cannot embark on energy-conservative policies, as such actions will hurt economic progress. In addition, unidirectional causality is seen between urbanization, trade openness, and economic growth. These findings have far-reaching implications for economic growth and macroeconomic indicators in Mexico. More insights are highlighted in the concluding section.     

Taking Venezuela back to the sustainability path: The role of financial development and economic integration in low‐carbon transition

Environmental protection and sustainable development are connected. Such connection is considered highly important for Venezuela, where fossil fuel abundance has created economic and environmental challenges. Surprisingly, only limited attention has been directed to identifying policy options for charting the path to sustainable development in the economy. Contributing to filling this gap in the literature, this study examines whether financial development, de facto and de jure conditions in trade and financial integration can trigger long‐term economic shifts that will change the trajectory of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the economy using a novel estimation approach—dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The empirical modelling framework incorporates the impact of population, economic growth, energy intensity and government consumption expenditure. ARDL‐bounds test provides evidence that the variables are cointegrated. Long‐run estimates from the dynamic ARDL analysis show that de facto and de jure conditions in trade and financial components of economic integration offer varied policy options for carbon mitigation in Venezuela. Population size, energy intensity, government consumption expenditure and de facto condition in financial integration have increasing impact on CO₂ emissions, exacerbating suitability challenges in the economy. On the other hand, positive shocks in financial development, de facto condition in trade integration and de jure condition in financial integration have a mitigation effect on CO₂ emissions. Overall, financial development, trade integration and the control of cross‐border financial flows are needed economic conditions that can accelerate a quick transition to a low‐carbon develpoment in Venezuela.     

EU sustainable development indicators: An overview

The European Union's commitment to sustainable development at the 1992 Earth Summit resulted in an EU‐wide sustainable development strategy, adopted in Gothenburg in 2001. This article presents an overview of the set of sustainable development indicators (SDIs) recently adopted by the European Commission to monitor, assess and revise the strategy. It provides a critical assessment of the current status of the indicator set, and reviews the main policy trends in the areas of the strategy through a brief analysis of headline indicators, placing energy and climate change issues in a broader perspective. Finally, the article compares the energy SDIs to the recent inter‐agency energy indicators for sustainable development (EISD), underlining their similarities as well as their different priorities and objectives. The article concludes that further research is needed to improve the SDI set and further explore the linkages between themes.     

From climate change impacts to adaptation: A development perspective for India

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio‐economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less‐GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change.     

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.     

Indicators for sustainable energy development in Thailand

This article examines energy priorities for Thailand from the economic, social and environmental perspectives of sustainable development. The article uses a set of indicators devised by the International Atomic Energy Agency in partnership with other international agencies and research institutes in seven countries. Thailand's energy efficiency in the 1980s and 1990s are analysed using energy intensity indicators, and possible impacts on sustainable energy development are highlighted. The early 1990s in particular was an important period for Thailand, as the country was at the height of its economic growth, and a number of energy efficiency and conservation programmes were launched. Energy intensity indicators show continuing and faster growth in energy consumption relative to economic activity. The financial crisis in the late 1990s did halt growth in energy consumption, with positive consequences on environmental emissions, but only temporarily as Thailand's economy quickly started to recover in 2000. Notwithstanding the financial crisis, the other indicators show significant progress in economic and social dimensions.     

Comparison of development scenarios of a black water source-separation sanitation system using life cycle assessment and environmental life cycle costing

The objective of the study is to compare different development scenarios of a black water source-separation sanitation system (BWS) that could be environmentally and economically more viable than a conventional system (CONV). Scenarios performance is evaluated using life cycle assessment and environmental life cycle costing. System boundaries include the processes related to the collection and treatment of wastewater and organic kitchen refuse collection and the recycling of by-product (digestate/sludge and biogas) produced in the treatment step. The BWS scenario that entails a vacuum toilet flow-volume reduction to 0.5 L/flush results in significantly higher performances than the ones of CONV for the climate change and resources indicators, while involving a significantly lower performance with regards to human health and a comparable cost. The BWS scenario based on digestate mass reduction with reverse osmosis and acidification prior to its transport to farmland achieves comparable performances to the ones of CONV for all indicators. The BWS scenario with digestate treatment by means of phosphorus precipitation (struvite) and nitritation–anammox reactors gives performances that are comparable to the ones of CONV for all indicators, with the exception of climate change, for which this scenario has a significantly lower performance if the electricity is produced by hydropower. When single-pathway scenarios are combined, the multi-pathway scenarios thus created can produce results that are significantly superior to the CONV result for the climate change, resources and human health indicators although the cost remains comparable.     

Environmental evaluation of transfer and treatment of excess pig slurry by life cycle assessment

Slurry management is a central topic in the agronomic and environmental analysis of intensive livestock production systems. The objective of this study is to compare the environmental performance of two scenarios of collective slurry management for the disposal of excess nitrogen from animal manure. The scenarios are the transfer of slurry and its injection to crop land, and the treatment of slurry in a collective biological treatment station. The study is based on a real case in the West of France, where a group of farmers is developing a collective plan for the disposal of almost 7000 m(3) of excess pig slurry. The evaluation is carried out by Life Cycle Assessment, where emissions and resource consumption are quantified and aggregated into four environmental impact categories: eutrophication, acidification, climate change, and non-renewable energy use. Ammonia emitted is the most important contributor to acidification and eutrophication, while methane contributes most to climate change. Both ammonia and methane are mostly emitted during the storage of slurry and, in the case of the treatment scenario, also during composting the solid fraction of the slurry. The two management strategies are similar with respect to climate change, whereas eutrophication and acidification are twice as large for treatment relative to transfer. Electricity needed for the treatment process is the main contributor to non-renewable energy use for the treatment scenario, while the transfer scenario represents a net energy saving, as energy saved by the reduction of mineral fertiliser use more than compensates for the energy needed for transport and injection of slurry. The overall environmental performance of transfer is better than that of treatment, as it involves less acidification, eutrophication and non-renewable energy use. The method employed and the results obtained in this study can provide elements for a transparent discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of contrasting excess slurry management scenarios as well as the identification of the main aspects determining their environmental performance.     

Water and sustainability

This inquiry summarizes global water resources and patterns of use, applies indicators of water sustainability in order to identify areas of water stress, and examines prospects for water sustainability in the list century. A long-range conventional development scenario is introduced based on a vision of the future in which the values, consumption patterns and dynamics of the Western industrial society will be progressively played out on a global scale. The scenario is driven by commonly cited projections of population and economic growth, assumes no major changes in water policy and, following historic trends, incorporates progressive improvements in the efficiency of water use. The scenario helps clarify the constraints of a conventional picture of water development, and provides a useful point of departure for examining alternative long-range scenarios and their implications for water and development policy. In the conventional development scenario, there is growing pressure on water resources, particularly in developing regions. Strategies for beginning a transition to a sustainable water development path are summarized .     

碳边境调节机制：欧盟应对气候变化的新选择与中国因应

近年来，欧盟考虑在气候变化立法中引入碳边境调节机制，旨在消除境外企业由于碳排放成本不对称而获得的价格优势。这一机制对于欧盟对冲减排压力、助力工业回流、增强气候领导力以及推动绿色转型大有裨益。作为一种碳关税政策，该机制确有贸易壁垒之嫌，在国际法上存在较大合法性争议。但未来欧盟可通过制度设计使其符合《关税与贸易总协定》（GATT）第20条，进而获得实施可能性。对我国而言，该机制实施必将会在诸多领域对我国产生不利影响，但某种程度上也可倒逼我国出口结构和贸易方式的调整升级。基于此，今后我国应自上而下完善碳市场建设，适时推动“碳交易+碳税”复合政策双轮驱动；积极开展气候外交；促进我国承接国际产业转移和出口的可持续发展。在法律对策上，积极参与国际谈判与规则制定；完善气候治理体系；促进低碳外贸发展；健全可再生能源激励制度。     

Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach

This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio‐economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, Kwazulu‐Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small‐scale farmers, high dependency on rain‐fed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region‐specific policies and address climate change at the local level.     

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic,Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.     

Indicators for sustainable energy development in Mexico

This article presents a summary of a study on the application to the Mexican energy sector of a core set of indicators for sustainable energy development (ISED), developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The study focused on the elaboration of socio‐economic and environmental indicators related to energy production and use, and was aimed at assessing Mexico's existing energy policies and identifying strategies and possible policies that could bring about improvements in major priority areas: energy intensity, atmospheric emissions, energy import dependency and use of renewables. While positive trends have been observed in relation to energy intensity and atmospheric emissions, Mexico is becoming more dependent on imports of gasoline, natural gas and other high‐value secondary energy sources, while exporting significant amounts of primary fuels, such as crude oil. Also, no significant increase has been observed in the use of renewable sources of energy. Social, economic and environmental policies need to be formulated for the energy sector and related investments (public and private) reinforced so that all economic sectors have access to energy from cleaner and more diverse sources.     

气候变化视角下的污染场地绿色可持续修复新方向

全球气候变化背景下,绿色可持续修复已成为修复领域的必然趋势。极端天气频发和水文条件改变等气候变化会影响污染场地修复工程实施和修复技术适用性等,绿色可持续修复亟待进一步发展和完善。弹性修复是在绿色可持续修复的基础上,进一步应对和适应气候变化的新兴修复方向。英美等发达国家已经初步发展了弹性修复的理论和实践,本文通过探究污染场地修复与气候变化的交互作用,借鉴发达国家的相关经验和实践案例,为我国污染场地绿色可持续修复适应气候变化提出发展建议。     

Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.     

Environment and development in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Linking climate change with sustainable fisheries development

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a major custodian of one of the ocean's major natural resources: tuna. The commercial tuna fisheries sector is the most important economic sector in the RMI and is thus a substantial contributor to this tiny island nation's GDP. Tuna catch and its associated revenues has fluctuated in line with climatic events such as the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, in the last decade, national fisheries development policies have begun to capitalize on the positive effects that ENSO warm events have had on the tuna populations. However, global warming is expected to have a significant impact on ENSO, and not necessarily in positive ways. This paper will focus on the relationship between environment and economic development in the RMI fisheries sector. In particular, the linkages between global warming and its effects on the tuna fisheries sector must be better understood and uncertainties accounted for so that impacts are appropriately addressed and integrated into sustainable fisheries development policies. Conclusions reached are that new fisheries development strategies that emphasize environmental‐based planning are required. The emerging ecosystem‐based approach to fisheries management is a start, as are the various international initiatives in furthering our understanding of the linkages between climate and ocean systems currently underway.     

Barriers,potentialities, and actions for implementation of sustainable energy procedures in Brazilian federal universities

Many universities around the world have served as active centers for research on climate change. However, there are several barriers to their activities, stemming from the nature of research, resources, and the structure of institutions. This document provides an overview of barriers, potential factors, and activities to develop and implement sustainable energy processes in public higher education institutions (HEIs) in Brazil. The research was conducted from March to April of 2018 with representatives of HEIs (rectors or prorectors of research). A total of 63 invitations to respond to the Survey‐monkey survey were emailed, and responses were received from 32 universities. The research concludes by proposing measures that can be taken to make the issue of climate change more present and effective in university research and teaching activities. This includes changes in research, information dissemination, and teaching approaches to better support actions to address climate change. In Brazil, there are many potentialities in terms of natural resources, but actions for implementation are still incipient. Further efforts and investment in research and development will be required.     

A FRAMEWORK OF ORDERED CLIMATE EFFECTS ON WATER RESOURCES: A COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: An examination of the metadata for almost 900 bibliographic references on the effects of climate change and variability on U.S. water resources reveals strengths and weaknesses in our current knowledge. Considerable progress has been made in the modeling of climate change effects on first-order systems such as regional hydrology, but significant work remains to be done in understanding subsequent effects on the second-, third-, and fourth-order economic and social systems (e.g., agriculture, trade balance, and national economic development) that water affects. In order to remedy a recently-revealed lack of understanding about climate change on the part of the public, climate and water scientists should collaborate with social scientists in illuminating the effects of climate change and variability on the systems that affect how and where most people live.