POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUND WATER IN LANSING,MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri‐County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.     

SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS IN GROUND WATER LEVEL1

ABSTRACT: Water level data at 16 ground water wells and two sea water gauging stations, coupled with barometric measurements in an alluvial plain in the central‐west region of Taiwan, are analyzed using spectral analysis in the time and frequency domains. The semi‐diurnal component from water level station is observed to be the most noticeable signal while the diurnal component is the less distinct signal recorded at the water level stations. Both semidiurnal and diurnal components are coupled with atmospheric pressure measurements. From the atmospheric pressure data, spectral analysis indicates that both the raw and the pressure adjusted water levels are almost in phase and retain the same amplitude in this area. It implies that the effect of pressure variations is not significant for the sea water and ground water level nearby; the astronomical tidal components, as expected, are the main factor causing fluctuation of ocean water and ground water levels in the Choshuihsi alluvial plain.     

Pesticide and Transformation Product Detections and Age‐Dating Relations from Till and Sand Deposits1

Abstract:  Pesticide and transformation product concentrations and frequencies in ground water from areas of similar crop and pesticide applications may vary substantially with differing lithologies. Pesticide analysis data for atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, acetochlor, and cyanazine and their pesticide transformation products were collected at 69 monitoring wells in Illinois and northern Indiana to document occurrence of pesticides and their transformation products in two agricultural areas of differing lithologies, till, and sand. The till is primarily tile drained and has preferential fractured flow, whereas the sand primarily has surface water drainage and primary porosity flow. Transformation products represent most of the agricultural pesticides in ground water regardless of aquifer material – till or sand. Transformation products were detected more frequently than parent pesticides in both the till and sand, with metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid being most frequently detected. Estimated ground‐water recharge dates for the sand were based on chlorofluorocarbon analyses. These age‐dating data indicate that ground water recharged prior to 1990 is more likely to have a detection of a pesticide or pesticide transformation product. Detections were twice as frequent in ground water recharged prior to 1990 (82%) than in ground water recharged on or after 1990 (33%). The highest concentrations of atrazine, alachlor, metolachlor, and their transformation products, also were detected in samples from ground water recharged prior to 1990. These age/pesticide detection relations are opposite of what would normally be expected, and may be the result of preferential flow and/or ground‐water mixing between aquifers and aquitards as evident by the detection of acetochlor transformation products in samples with estimated ground‐water ages predating initial pesticide application.     

DISSOLVED HEAVY METALS IN SHALLOW GROUND WATER IN A SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN URBAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The occurrence of dissolved heavy metal concentrations in shallow ground water were measured at 126 sites within an urban watershed in southeastern Michigan. A total of 1,140 samples were collected from the first saturated zone, and the mean concentrations of 11 heavy metals (arsenic, barium, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, silver, and zinc) were obtained and compared to their corresponding mean concentrations within surface soil. The results suggest that former and current land use processes have resulted in significant adverse impacts on the study region. Levels of Cr 20 to 30 times the maximum contaminant level (MCL) have been detected in the ground water beneath industrial sites. In addition, Cd and Pb have been found at levels exceeding their MCLs where surface soils are clay‐rich, and in sandy soils at more than 10 times their MCLs. The high levels of Cr in ground water strongly suggest that the chromium is in a hexavalent form, and this likelihood is supported by current studies. Given the hydraulic connection between the watershed's surface waters and the Great Lakes, these findings raise significant ecological and public health concerns.     

GROUND AND SURFACE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF NORTH CAROLINA SANITARY LANDFILLS1

ABSTRACT: Ground and surface water quality monitoring data from 71 municipal sanitary landfills in North Carolina were analyzed to determine the nature and extent of current contamination problems and identify any common characteristics associated with this contamination. A total of 322 surface and 411 ground water quality records were analyzed using the SAS data system. Almost all the landfill records included inorganic and heavy metal analyses while approximately half of the records also included organic analyses by CC/MS. Our analysis indicates that landfills are having measurable impacts on ground and surface water quality, but these impacts may not be as severe as is commonly assumed. Statistically significant increases were detected in the average concentrations in ground water and downstream surface water samples when compared to upstream surface water samples. The largest percentage increases were observed for zinc, turbidity, total organic carbon, conductivity, total dissolved solids, and lead. Violations of ground water quality standards for heavy metals and hazardous organic compounds were detected at 53 percent of the landfills where adequate data existed. The moat common heavy metal violations were for lead (18 percent), chromium (18 percent), zinc (6 percent), cadmium (6 percent), and arsenic (6 percent) (percentage of landfills violating shown in parenthesis). The organic compounds that appear to pose the greatest threat to ground water are the chlorinated solvents (8 percent), petroleum derived hydrocarbons (8 percent), and pesticides (5 percent). A comparison of monitoring data from sanitary landfills and secondary wastewater treatment plants suggests that the concentrations of heavy metal and organic pollutants discharged to surface waters from these two sources are similar.     

MANAGING CRISIS: THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LOCAL DISTRICTS FOR CONTROL OF GROUND WATER MINING1

: This article examines the willingness and capacity of local districts to control ground water mining of the Ogallala Aquifer in the High Plains. The questions of willingness and capacity were approached through extensive field interviews and a survey of all district board members and managers. The analysis focuses on the policy alternatives board members and managers perceive and how they evaluate these alternatives. Methodologically, the study utilized factor analysis of responses rating the desirability of various policy alternatives to ascertain what alternatives were perceived by the sample. Then the sample's preferences for each of the identified factors were calculated. The results demonstrate that the sample of those who must regulate if ground water mining is to be controlled at the substate level are not oriented to regulatory policies and therefore lack the willingness to deal with ground water mining.     

PREDICTABILITY OF SURFACE WATER POLLUTION LOADING IN PENNSYLVANIA USING WATERSHED‐BASED LANDSCAPE MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: We formally evaluated the relationship between landscape characteristics and surface water quality in the state of Pennsylvania (USA) by regressing two different types of pollutant responses on landscape variables that were measured for whole watersheds. One response was the monthly exported mass of nitrogen estimated from field measurements, while the other response was a GIS‐modeled pollution potential index. Regression models were built by the stepwise selection protocol, choosing an optimal set of landscape predictors. After factoring out the effect of physiography, the dominant predictors were the proportion of “annual herbaceous” land and “total herbaceous” land for the nitrogen loading and pollution potential index, respectively. The strength of these single predictors is encouraging because the marginal land cover proportions are the simplest landscape measurements to obtain once a land cover map is in hand; however, the optimal set of predictors also included several measurements of spatial pattern. Thus, for watersheds at this general hierarchical scale, gross landscape pattern may be an important influence on instream pollution loading. Overall, there is strong evidence that using landscape measurements alone, obtained solely from remotely sensed data, can explain most of the water quality variability (R²= approx. 0.75) within these watersheds.     

GROUND WATER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT BY A FEEDFORWARD CONTROL METHOD1

ABSTRACT: Management of a regional ground water system to mitigate drought problems at the multi‐layered aquifer system in Collier County, Florida, is the main topic. This paper developed a feedforward control system that consists of system and control equations. The system equation, which forecasts ground water levels using the current measurements, was built based on the Kalman filter algorithm associated with a stochastic time series model. The role of the control equation is to estimate the pumping reduction rate during an anticipated drought. The control equation was built based on the empirical relationship between the change in ground water levels and the corresponding pumping requirement. The control system starts with forecasting one‐month‐ahead ground water head at each control point. The forecasted head is in turn used to calculate the deviation of ground water heads from the monthly target specified by a 2‐in‐10‐year frequency. When the forecasted water level is lower than the target, the control system computes spatially‐varied pumping reduction rates as a recommendation for ground water users. The proposed control system was tested using hypothetical droughts. The simulation result revealed that the estimated pumping reduction rates are highly variable in space, strongly supporting the idea of spatial forecasting and controlling of ground water levels as opposed to a lumped water use restriction method used previously in the model area.     

SAMPLING FREQUENCY SELECTION FOR REGULATORY WATER QUALITY MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: The selection of sampling frequencies in order to achieve reasonably small and uniform confidence interval widths about annual sample means or sample geometric means of water quality constituents is suggested as a rational approach to regulatory monitoring network design. Methods are presented for predicting confidence interval widths at specified sampling frequencies while considering both seasonal variation and serial correlation of the quality time series. Deterministic annual cycles are isolated and serial dependence structures of the autoregressive, moving average type are identified through time series analysis of historic water quality records. The methods are applied to records for five quality constituents from a nine-station network in Illinois. Confidence interval widths about annual geometric means are computed over a range of sampling frequencies appropriate in regulatory monitoring. Results are compared with those obtained when a less rigorous approach, ignoring seasonal variation and serial correlation, is used. For a monthly sampling frequency the error created by ignoring both seasonal variation and serial correlation is approximately 8 percent. Finally, a simpler technique for evaluating serial correlation effects based on the assumption of AR(1) type dependence is examined. It is suggested that values of the parameter p₁, in the AR(1) model should range from 0.75 to 0.90 for the constituents and region studied.     

EFFECT OF SERIAL CORRECTION ON GROUND WATER QUALITY SAMPLING FREQUENCY1

ABSTRACT: Methods of calculating uncertainty in estimates of serial correlation coefficients, and correcting for bias in short and medium length (less than 50 data point) records, are presented. Uncertainty and bias in the estimation of serial correlation coefficients for ground water quality data is shown to be considerable and to result in inaccurate calculation of the sampling frequencies for monitoring purposes. The methods are applied to a ground water data set consisting of 87 monthly measurements of nitrate concentrations. The variation in serial correlation coefficients with variation of record length is examined. The optimum sampling frequencies for detection of changes in ground water nitrate concentrations are estimated.     

INFLUENCE OF WELL WATER QUALITY VARIABILITY ON SAMPLING DECISIONS AND MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: Local governmental agencies responsible for decisions in ground water quality management need not only data on ground water quality but they also must understand the relationship of accuracies and risks associated with this data as related to the number of wells to sample. In this report we address this problem by using the philosophical doctrines of probabilism and relativism with simple statistical procedures. This requires a reasonable estimate of the population variance in a quality parameter for a given management-unit area, and requires that the decisionmaker formulate constraints with an acceptable standard error of the sample mean and be willing to accept some level of probability of being Wrong. This technique is illustrated using a 21-year data base of well water chemical data in a 653 km² ground water quality study area in the San Joaquin Valley of California.     

USE OF THE KRIGING METHOD FOR STUDYING CHARACTERISTICS OF GROUND WATER DROUGHTS1

round water drought events were derived by taking a truncation level through the time series of daily ground water depth that are recorded elevation differences between the water table and land surface at a well site. Droughts of various truncation levels at 70, 80, 90, and 95 percent, were obtained, where a 70 percent truncation level means that 70 percent of ground water depth data are less than or equal to the truncated value. The conditional probability that a drought occurring at a certain truncation level will prolong and advance to that of the next higher level was estimated. The regionalization analysis was conducted assuming that conditional probabilities estimated at selected wells are regionalized variables. Contour lines of conditional probabilities for each truncation level were constructed to express their spatial variability in the region. Estimation errors associated with the regionalization were reasonably small.     

AUTOMATED METHODS FOR ESTIMATING BASEFLOW AND GROUND WATER RECHARGE FROM STREAMFLOW RECORDS1

ABSTRACT: To quantify and model the natural ground water recharge process, six sites located in the midwest and eastern United States where previous water balance observations had been made were compared to computerized techniques to estimate: (1) base flow and (2) ground water recharge. Results from an existing automated digital filter technique for separating baseflow from daily streamflow records were compared to baseflow estimates made in the six water balance studies. Previous validation of automated baseflow separation techniques consisted only of comparisons with manual techniques. In this study, the automated digital filter technique was found to compare well with measured field estimates yielding a monthly coefficient of determination of 0.86. The recharge algorithm developed in this study is an automated derivation of the Rorabaugh hydrograph recession curve displacement method that utilizes daily streamflow. Comparison of annual recharge from field water balance measurements to those computed with the automated recession curve displacement method had coefficients of determination of 0.76 and predictive efficiencies of 71 percent. Monthly estimates showed more variation and are not advocated for use with this method. These techniques appear to be fast, reproducible methods for estimating baseflow and annual recharge and should be useful in regional modeling efforts and as a quick check on mass balance techniques for shallow water table aquifers.     

Total alkalinity of surface waters: a map of the upper midwest region of the United States

This map (see the inside back cover of this issue) illustrates the regional patterns of mean annual alkalinity of surface water in the northern portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, USA. It provides a qualitative graphic overview of the relative potential sensitivity of surface waters to acidic input in the upper midwest portions of the United States. The map is based on data from approximately 14,000 lakes and streams and the apparent spatial associations between these data and macroscale watershed characteristics that are thought to affect alkalinity.For the map of the Upper Midwest Region of the United States, see the inside back cover of this issue.     

GROUND WATER/SURFACE WATER RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS,SANTA CLARA‐CALLEGUAS BASIN,VENTURA, CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara‐Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate‐driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM‐RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM‐RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.     

Evaluating the effects of spatial monitoring policy on groundwater quality portrayal

What size sample is sufficient for spatially sampling ambient groundwater quality? Water quality data are only as spatially accurate as the geographic sampling strategies used to collect them. This research used sequential sampling and regression analysis to evaluate groundwater quality spatial sampling policy changes proposed by California's Department of Water Resources. Iterative or sequential sampling of a hypothetical groundwater basin's water quality produced data sets from sample sizes ranging from 2.8% to 95% coverage of available point sample sites. Contour maps based on these sample data sets were compared to an original (control), mapped hypothetical data set, to determine at which point map information content and pattern portrayal are not improved by increasing sample sizes. Comparing series of contour maps of ground water quality concentration is a common means of evaluating the geographic extent of groundwater quality change. Comparisons included visual inspection of contout maps and statistical tests on digital versions of these map files, including correlation and regression products. This research demonstrated that, down to about 15% sample site coverage, there is no difference between contour maps produced from the different sampling strategies and the contout map of the original data set.     

OPTIMAL ESTIMATION OF CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT IN GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: Finite element and finite difference representations of the convective-dispersive equation have been widely used in determining contaminant transport in ground water. Due to inherent uncertainties of the transport process, those representations are inexact and contain errors. Errors in field measurements are unavoidable. By combining a numerical model, a measurement equation, and the Kalman filter, optimal estimates of the state variable (contaminant concentration) can be obtained. This paper describes the algorithm and gives a numerical example of contaminant transport in a two-dimensional ground water flow. The results show significant improvement in the estimated concentration distribution by using the filtering technique.     

HISTORICAL AND ESTIMATED GROUND WATER LEVELS NEAR WINNIPEG,CANADA, AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATIC VARIABILITY1

ABSTRACT: Long term well hydrographs and estimated ground water levels derived from hydroclimatic and biological data were used to evaluate trends within the Upper Carbonate Aquifer (UCA) near Winnipeg, Canada, during the 20th Century. Ground water records from instruments have been kept since the early 1960s and are derived from piezometers in the overlying sediments and in open boreholes in the UCA. Some boreholes extend into an underlying Paleozoic carbonate sequence. Shallow well hydrographs show no obvious long term trends but do exhibit variations on the order of three to four years that are correlated with changes in annual temperature and precipitation at lags up to 24 months. Trends observed in deeper wells appear to be largely related to ground water usage patterns and show little correlation with climate over the past 35 years. Stepwise multiple regression modeled average annual hydraulic head in the shallow wells as a function of regional temperature, precipitation, and tree ring variables. Estimated hydraulic heads had a slightly greater range prior to the 1960s, most prominently during an interval of lowered ground water levels between 1930 and 1942. Regression results demonstrate that moisture sensitive tree ring data are viable predictors of past ground water levels and may be useful for studies of aquifers in regions that lack long, high quality precipitation records.     

EFFECT OF SEMI‐PERCHED GROUND WATER ON MONITORING OF GROUND WATER LEVELS IN A DEVELOPED AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: Interpretation of ground water level changes in a developed aquifer usually relies on reference to some benchmark such as “predevelopment” ground water levels, changes from fall to fall and/or spring to spring, or to determination of maximum stress during the pumping season. The assumption is that ground water levels measured in the monitoring well accurately reflect the state of the ground water resource in terms of quantity in storage and the effects of local pumping. This assumption is questionable based on the patterns shown in continuous hydrographs of water levels in monitoring wells in Nebraska, and wells installed to determine vertical gradients. These hydrographs show clear evidence for vertical ground water gradients and recharge from overlying parts of the aquifer system to deeper zones in which production wells are screened. The classical concept of semi‐perched ground water, as described by Meinzer, is demonstrated by these hydrographs. The presence of semi‐perched ground water (Meinzer definition, there is no intervening unsaturated zone) invalidates the use of measured ground water levels in regional observation programs for detailed numerical management of the resource. Failure to recognize the Meinzer effect has led to faulty management. The best use of data from the observation well network would be for detection of trends and education unless it is clearly understood what is being measured.     

GROUND WATER MONITORING FOR TEMIK (ALDICARB) IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Over 700 community drinking water supplies were sampled for the pesticide Temik (aldicarb and its oxidative metabolites aldicarb sulfoxide and aldicarb sulfone) in Florida. All community supply wells sampled for Temik were located in counties where Temik was reported to have been used and approximately one-half of the wells were located in counties where ground water was determined to be highly susceptible to contamination by Temik. Susceptibility was determined using ranking criteria that incorporated ground water recharge characteristics, water use, and Temik use patterns. Temik was not detected in any of the community supply wells sampled during the study. However, Temik was detected in shallow, private wells, as was the pesticide ethylene dibromide in counties with ground water characterized as highly susceptible to contamination.