Comparison of Two Spatial Optimization Techniques: A Framework to Solve Multiobjective Land Use Distribution Problems

Two spatial optimization approaches, developed from the opposing perspectives of ecological economics and landscape planning and aimed at the definition of new distributions of farming systems and of land use elements, are compared and integrated into a general framework. The first approach, applied to a small river catchment in southwestern France, uses SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and a weighted goal programming model in combination with a geographical information system (GIS) for the determination of optimal farming system patterns, based on selected objective functions to minimize deviations from the goals of reducing nitrogen and maintaining income. The second approach, demonstrated in a suburban landscape near Leipzig, Germany, defines a GIS-based predictive habitat model for the search of unfragmented regions suitable for hare populations (Lepus europaeus), followed by compromise optimization with the aim of planning a new habitat structure distribution for the hare. The multifunctional problem is solved by the integration of the three landscape functions (“production of cereals,” “resistance to soil erosion by water,” and “landscape water retention”). Through the comparison, we propose a framework for the definition of optimal land use patterns based on optimization techniques. The framework includes the main aspects to solve land use distribution problems with the aim of finding the optimal or best land use decisions. It integrates indicators, goals of spatial developments and stakeholders, including weighting, and model tools for the prediction of objective functions and risk assessments. Methodological limits of the uncertainty of data and model outcomes are stressed. The framework clarifies the use of optimization techniques in spatial planning.     

Controls on Nutrients Across a Prairie Stream Watershed: Land Use and Riparian Cover Effects

Nutrient inputs generally are increased by human-induced land use changes and can lead to eutrophication and impairment of surface waters. Understanding the scale at which land use influences nutrient loading is necessary for the development of management practices and policies that improve water quality. The authors assessed the relationships between land use and stream nutrients in a prairie watershed dominated by intermittent stream flow in the first-order higher elevation reaches. Total nitrogen, nitrate, and phosphorus concentrations were greater in tributaries occupying the lower portions of the watershed, closely mirroring the increased density of row crop agriculture from headwaters to lower-elevation alluvial areas. Land cover classified at three spatial scales in each sub-basin above sampling sites (riparian in the entire catchment, catchment land cover, and riparian across the 2 km upstream) was highly correlated with variation in both total nitrogen (r² = 53%, 52%, and 49%, respectively) and nitrate (r² = 69%, 65%, and 56%, respectively) concentrations among sites. However, phosphorus concentrations were not significantly associated with riparian or catchment land cover classes at any spatial scale. Separating land use from riparian cover in the entire watershed was difficult, but riparian cover was most closely correlated with in-stream nutrient concentrations. By controlling for land cover, a significant correlation of riparian cover for the 2 km above the sampling site with in-stream nutrient concentrations could be established. Surprisingly, land use in the entire watershed, including small intermittent streams, had a large influence on average downstream water quality although the headwater streams were not flowing for a substantial portion of the year. This suggests that nutrient criteria may not be met only by managing permanently flowing streams.     

Info-Gap Decision Theory for Assessing the Management of Catchments for Timber Production and Urban Water Supply

While previous studies have examined how forest management is influenced by the risk of fire, they rely on probabilistic estimates of the occurrence and impacts of fire. However, nonprobabilistic approaches are required for assessing the importance of fire risk when data are poor but risks are appreciable. We explore impacts of fire risk on forest management using as a case study a water catchment in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (southeastern Australia). In this forested area, urban water supply and timber yields from exotic plantations are potential joint but also competing land uses. Our analyses were stimulated by extensive wildfires in early 2003 that burned much of the existing exotic pine plantation estate in the water catchment and the resulting need to explore the relative economic benefits of revegetating the catchment with exotic plantations or native vegetation. The current mean fire interval in the ACT is approximately 40 years, making the establishment of a pine plantation economically marginal at a 4% discount rate. However, the relative impact on water yield of revegetation with native species and pines is very uncertain, as is the risk of fire under climate change. We use info-gap decision theory to account for these nonprobabilistic sources of uncertainty, demonstrating that the decision that is most robust to uncertainty is highly sensitive to the cost of native revegetation. If costs of native revegetation are sufficiently small, this option is more robust to uncertainty than revegetation with a commercial pine plantation.     

Sourcing sediment using multiple tracers in the catchment of Lake Argyle,Northwestern Australia

Control of sedimentation in large reservoirs requires soil conservation at the catchment scale. In large, heterogeneous catchments, soil conservation planning needs to be based on sound information, and set within the framework of a sediment budget to ensure that all of the potentially significant sources and sinks are considered. The major sources of sediment reaching the reservoir, Lake Argyle, in tropical northwestern Australia, have been determined by combining measured sediment fluxes in rivers with spatial tracer-based estimates of proportional contributions from tributaries of the main stream entering the lake, the Ord River. The spatial tracers used are mineral particle magnetics, the strontium isotopic ratio, and the neodymium isotopic ratio. Fallout of ¹³⁷Cs has been used to estimate the proportion of the sediment in Lake Argyle eroded from surface soils by sheet and rill erosion, and, by difference, the proportion eroded from subsurface soils by gully and channel erosion. About 96% of the sediment in the reservoir has come from less than 10% of the catchment, in the area of highly erodible soils formed on Cambrian-age sedimentary rocks. About 80% of the sediment in the reservoir has come from gully and channel erosion. A major catchment revegetation program, designed to slow sedimentation in the reservoir, appears to have had little effect because it did not target gullies, the major source of sediment. Had knowledge of the sediment budget been available before the revegetation program was designed, an entirely different approach would have been taken.     

A decision support process to compare riparian revegetation options in Scheu Creek catchment in north Queensland

While riparin vegetation can play a major role in protecting land, water and natural habitat in catchments, there are high costs associated with tree planting and establishment and in diverting land from cropping. The distribution of costs and benefits of riparian revegetation creates conflicts in the objectives of various stakeholder groups. Multicriteria analysis provides an appropriate tool to evaluate alternative riparian revegetation options, and to accommodate the conflicting views of various stakeholder groups. This paper discusses an application of multicriteria analysis in an evaluation of riparian revegetation policy options for Scheu Creek, a small sub-catchment in the Johnstone River catchment in north Queensland, Australia. Clear differences are found in the rankings of revegetation options for different stakeholder groups with respect to environmental, social and economic impacts. Implementation of a revegetation option will involve considerable cost for landholders for the benefits of society. Queensland legislation does not provide a means to require farmers to implement riparian revegetation, hence the need for subsidies, tax incentives and moral suasion.     

Risk-based targeting of diffuse contaminant sources at variable spatial scales in a New Zealand high country catchment.

Management of agricultural diffuse pollution requires targeting or prioritising critical source areas at various spatial scales within watersheds. This study develops, evaluates and illustrates a risk-based approach for assessment and targeting of source areas at catchment, subarea and individual farm scales. Catchment water quality data are used in conjunction with information on watershed characteristics from the New Zealand Land Resources Inventory at the subarea scale and land use information at the farm scale to assess risk and target source areas. Total phosphorus in the Lake Hayes Catchment, a high country pastoral catchment in the South Island of New Zealand, is used as a case study. Use, comparison and evaluation of several different methodologies for subareas and individual properties showed that a subarea in the upper catchment and one immediately upstream from the lake were the worst source areas. Targeting of other subareas varied dependent on the method used. The worst individual properties were targeted based on the combination of intensity of cattle and sheep grazing, fertilizer usage, bank erosion and location in the worst subareas. Water quality results are critical to successful targeting, particularly for convincing landowners that streams will benefit from best management practices on their properties. In addition to concentrations, average and extreme loadings are important. Data on catchment characteristics, particularly land use, are needed for targeting, but are not always readily available at small scales. This study demonstrated simple but useful methods for application of assessment information for quantitative targeting of contaminant source areas at different spatial scales.     

The Influence of Land Use Change on Landslide Susceptibility Zonation: The Briga Catchment Test Site (Messina,Italy)

The spatial distribution of landslides is influenced by different climatic conditions and environmental settings including topography, morphology, hydrology, lithology, and land use. In this work, we have attempted to evaluate the influence of land use change on landslide susceptibility (LS) for a small study area located in the southern part of the Briga catchment, along the Ionian coast of Sicily (Italy). On October 1, 2009, the area was hit by an intense rainfall event that triggered abundant slope failures and resulted in widespread erosion. After the storm, an inventory map showing the distribution of pre-event and event landslides was prepared for the area. Moreover, two different land use maps were developed: the first was obtained through a semi-automatic classification of digitized aerial photographs acquired in 1954, the second through the combination of supervised classifications of two recent QuickBird images. Exploiting the two land use maps and different land use scenarios, LS zonations were prepared through multivariate statistical analyses. Differences in the susceptibility models were analyzed and quantified to evaluate the effects of land use change on the susceptibility zonation. Susceptibility maps show an increase in the areal percentage and number of slope units classified as unstable related to the increase in bare soils to the detriment of forested areas.     

Landscape Characterization Integrating Expert and Local Spatial Knowledge of Land and Forest Resources

In many developing countries, political documentation acknowledges the crucial elements of participation and spatiality for effective land use planning. However, operative approaches to spatial data inclusion and representation in participatory land management are often lacking. In this paper, we apply and develop an integrated landscape characterization approach to enhance spatial knowledge generation about the complex human–nature interactions in landscapes in the context of Zanzibar, Tanzania. We apply an integrated landscape conceptualization as a theoretical framework where the expert and local knowledge can meet in spatial context. The characterization is based on combining multiple data sources in GIS, and involves local communities and their local spatial knowledge since the beginning into the process. Focusing on the expected information needs for community forest management, our characterization integrates physical landscape features and retrospective landscape change data with place-specific community knowledge collected through participatory GIS techniques. The characterization is established in a map form consisting of four themes and their synthesis. The characterization maps are designed to support intuitive interpretation, express the inherently uncertain nature of the data, and accompanied by photographs to enhance communication. Visual interpretation of the characterization mediates information about the character of areas and places in the studied local landscape, depicting the role of forest resources as part of the landscape entity. We conclude that landscape characterization applied in GIS is a highly potential tool for participatory land and resource management, where spatial argumentation, stakeholder communication, and empowerment are critical issues.     

Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

Anthropogenic effects on the biodiversity of riparian wetlands of a northern temperate landscape

Land uses such as forestry and agriculture are presumed to degrade the biodiversity of riparian wetlands in the northern temperate regions of the United States. In order to improve land use decision making in this landscape, floral and faunal communities of 15 riparian wetlands associated with low-order streams were related to their surrounding land cover to establish which organismal groups are affected by anthropogenic disturbance and whether these impacts are scale-specific. Study sites were chosen to represent a gradient of disturbance. Vascular plants of wet meadow and shrub carr communities, aquatic macro-invertebrates, amphibians, fish and birds were surveyed, and total abundance, species richness and Shannon diversity were calculated. For each site, anthropogenic disturbances were evaluated at local and landscape scales (500, 1000, 2500 and 5000 m from the site and the site catchment) from field surveys and a geographic information system (GIS). Land use data were grouped into six general land use types: urban, cultivated, rangeland, forest, wetland and water. Shrub carr vegetation, bird and fish diversity and richness generally decrease with increasing cultivation in the landscape. Amphibian abundance decreases and fish abundance increases as the proportions of open water and rangeland increases; bird diversity and richness increase with forest and wetland extent in the landscape. Wet meadow vegetation, aquatic macro-invertebrates, amphibians and fish respond to local disturbances or environmental conditions. Shrub carr vegetation, amphibians and birds are influenced by land use at relatively small landscape scales (500 and 1000 m), and fish respond to land use at larger landscape scales (2500, 5000 m and the catchment). Effective conservation planning for these riparian wetlands requires assessment of multiple organismal groups, different types of disturbance and several spatial scales.1998 Academic Press     

Remotely Sensed Data for Ecosystem Analyses: Combining Hierarchy Theory and Scene Models

Remotely sensed data have been used extensively for environmental monitoring and modeling at a number of spatial scales; however, a limited range of satellite imaging systems often constrained the scales of these analyses. A wider variety of data sets is now available, allowing image data to be selected to match the scale of environmental structure(s) or process(es) being examined. A framework is presented for use by environmental scientists and managers, enabling their spatial data collection needs to be linked to a suitable form of remotely sensed data. A six-step approach is used, combining image spatial analysis and scaling tools, within the context of hierarchy theory. The main steps involved are: (1) identification of information requirements for the monitoring or management problem; (2) development of ideal image dimensions (scene model), (3) exploratory analysis of existing remotely sensed data using scaling techniques, (4) selection and evaluation of suitable remotely sensed data based on the scene model, (5) selection of suitable spatial analytic techniques to meet information requirements, and (6) cost–benefit analysis. Results from a case study show that the framework provided an objective mechanism to identify relevant aspects of the monitoring problem and environmental characteristics for selecting remotely sensed data and analysis techniques.     

Improving National-Scale Carbon Stock Inventories Using Knowledge on Land Use History

National-scale inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) and forest floor carbon (FFC) stocks have a high uncertainty. Inventories are often based on the interpolation of sampled information, often using a number of covariables to help such interpolation. The rationale for the choice of these covariables is not always documented, despite the fact that many local-scale studies have identified the factors explaining spatial variability of SOC and FFC stocks. These studies indicate, among others the importance of long-term land use history. Despite this, information on the effects of land use history has never been used to explain variability of carbon stocks in national-scale inventories. We designed an alternative method to improve national-scale inventories of SOC and FCC for the Dutch sand area that takes stock of the findings of detailed case studies. Determinants for SOC and FFC stocks derived from landscape-scale case studies were used to map national-scale spatial variability and to calculate national totals. The resulting national-scale spatial distribution was compared with the SOC stock map from the current Dutch greenhouse gas inventory. Using land use history to explain SOC variability decreased the error of the SOC stock estimate in 60 % of the area. The error in FFC stocks decreased in half of the forest area after including soil fertility, tree species, and forest age as explanatory factors. Estimates with reduced uncertainty will make land use and land management a more attractive and acceptable mitigation option to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for the LULUCF sector.     

A Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Design of Spatial Decision Support Systems for Environmental Management

/ This paper describes a framework for designing spatial decision support systems for environmental management using a knowledge-based systems approach. An architecture for knowledge-based spatial decision supportsystems (KBSDSS) is presented that integrates knowledge-based systems with geographical information systems (GIS) and other problem-solving techniques. A method based on spatial influence diagrams is developed for representation of environmental problems. The spatial influence diagram provides an interface through which knowledge-based systems techniques can be applied to build capabilities for problem formulation, automated design, and execution of a solution process. In addition to the flexibility and developmental advantages of knowledge-based systems, the KBSDSS incorporates expert knowledge to provide assistance for structuring spatial influence diagrams and executing a solution process that automatically integrates the GIS, data base, knowledge base, and different types of models. The framework is illustrated with a system, known as the Islay Land Use Decision Support System (ILUDSS), designed to assist planners in strategic planning of land use for the development of the island of Islay, off the west coast of Scotland.KEY WORDS: Geographical information systems; Spatial decision support systems; Knowledge-based systems; Spatial influence diagrams; Environmental management     

基于GIS技术的大连旅顺口区地形起伏度测算研究

依据地形起伏度研究的理论和方法,充分运用地理信息系统软件的分析功能和制图技术,以1∶50000DEM数据为基础,利用0.01km2的动态格网以街道为评价单元进行空间信息的处理和分析,计算大连旅顺口区的地形起伏度,制成地形起伏度专题地图,划分相应起伏区,分析得出旅顺口区局部地区地形起伏度较大,起伏度指数以中低值为主,并测算出各街道实际用地情况,为本区域经济发展和城市建设提供参考,也为区域制定科学的发展规划提供依据.     

Integrating Environmental and Socio-Economic Indicators of a Linked Catchment–Coastal System Using Variable Environmental Intensity

Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic—and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application.     

The Road to NHDPlus — Advancements in Digital Stream Networks and Associated Catchments

A progression of advancements in Geographic Information Systems techniques for hydrologic network and associated catchment delineation has led to the production of the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus). NHDPlus is a digital stream network for hydrologic modeling with catchments and a suite of related geospatial data. Digital stream networks with associated catchments provide a geospatial framework for linking and integrating water‐related data. Advancements in the development of NHDPlus are expected to continue to improve the capabilities of this national geospatial hydrologic framework. NHDPlus is built upon the medium‐resolution NHD and, like NHD, was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Geological Survey to support the estimation of streamflow and stream velocity used in fate‐and‐transport modeling. Catchments included with NHDPlus were created by integrating vector information from the NHD and from the Watershed Boundary Dataset with the gridded land surface elevation as represented by the National Elevation Dataset. NHDPlus is an actively used and continually improved dataset. Users recognize the importance of a reliable stream network and associated catchments. The NHDPlus spatial features and associated data tables will continue to be improved to support regional water quality and streamflow models and other user‐defined applications.     

Spatial and temporal variation in nutrient parameters in stream water in a rural-urban catchment, Shikoku, Japan: effects of land cover and human impact

Seasonal and spatial variations in major ion chemistry and isotope composition in the rural-urban catchment of the Shigenobu River were monitored to determine the influences of agricultural and urban sewage systems on water quality. Temporal patterns of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended sediment (SS) were examined at four sites in the rural-urban catchment. Urban land cover, incorporating the effects of increased population, domestic water use, and industrial wastewater, was positively associated with increases in water pollution and was included as an important explanatory variable for the variations in all water quality parameters. Significant trends were found in each parameter. BOD concentrations ranged widely, and were high in urban regions, due to the presence of a waste water treatment plant. TN and SS showed various trends, but did not vary widely, unlike TP. TP concentrations varied greatly, with high concentrations in cultivated areas, due to fertilizer use. Local water quality management or geology could further explain some of the variations in water quality. Non-point-source pollution exhibited strong positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating that incorporating spatial dimensions into water quality assessment enhances our understanding of spatial patterns of water quality. Data from the Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) and Environment Ministry (EM) were used to investigate trends in land management. Stepwise regression analysis was used to test the correlation between specific management practises and substance concentrations in surface water and sediment. MLIT and EM data for 1981-2003 showed an increase in TN, TP, and SS concentrations in surface water. High levels of fertilizer in dormant sprays and domestic water use were associated with high pesticide concentrations in water and sediment. This paper presents a novel method of studying the environmental impact of various agricultural management practises and recommends a management strategy that combines the use of reduced-risk pesticides with irrigation and non-irrigation periods in paddy fields.     

Roles of land use resolution and unit-area load rates in assessment of diffuse nutrient emissions

In contrast to its counterparts in Europe and North America, the Australian National Pollutant Inventory (NPI) includes estimates of aggregated emissions of nutrients (total nitrogen and total phosphorus) from catchments and facilities. Sparse or inadequate data limit the extent to which nutrient exports may be estimated from direct observations. The paucity of data for calibration and simulation limits the use of sophisticated models in most Australian catchments. Therefore, a simple unit-area load model-Catchment Management Support System (CMSS)-was selected to estimate aggregated catchment emissions for the NPI. Estimates from models like CMSS are sensitive to spatial and categorical resolution of land uses identified within the catchment and to nutrient generation rates selected for each land use category. Using three Hawkesbury-Nepean subcatchments, we show that while high spatial resolution of land use mapping is useful, only four or five major land use categories with carefully selected generation rates were required to estimate potential nutrient exports sufficiently well and to determine subcatchments contributing most. Nutrient emission estimates proved to be highly dependent on selection of generation rates so a bootstrap technique was adopted to reduce subjectivity and to improve estimates of confidence limits. This led to a specification of new generation rates for Natural, Unimproved pasture, Rural and Urban land uses and to establishment of uncertainty limits.     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.     

Spatial Analysis of Soil Salinity and Soil Structural Stability in a Semiarid Region of New South Wales,Australia

Salt-affected soils are a major threat to agriculture especially in the semiarid regions of the world. The effective management of these soils requires adequate understanding of not only how water and, hence, solutes are transported within the soil, but also how soil salinity and sodicity spatially interact to determine soil structural breakdown. For sustainable agricultural production, information on quantitative soil quality, such as salinity, is required for effective land management and environmental planning. In this study, quantitative methods for mapping indicators of soil structural stability, namely salinity and sodicity, were developed to assess the effect of these primary indicators on soil structural breakdown. The current levels of soil salinity, as measured by electrical conductivity (EC) of the soil/water suspension, soil sodicity, represented by exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP), and aggregate stability, were assessed. Remote sensing, geographical information system (GIS), and geostatistical techniques-primarily regression-kriging and indicator-kriging-were used to spatially predict the soil sodicity and salinity. The patterns of salinity (EC) and sodicity (ESP > 5%) were identified. The effect of land use on these soil quality indicators was found to be minimal. Co-spatial patterns were elucidated between sodic soils (defined by ESP > 5%) and highly probable mechanically dispersive soils predicted from indicator-kriging of ASWAT scores. It was established that the incorporation of EC with ESP into an objective index, called electrolyte stability index (ESI = ESP/EC), gave a good indication of soil dispersion, although the threshold ESI value below which effective structural breakdown might occur is 0.025, which is twice as small as the expected 0.05. The discrepancies between ESI and ASWAT scores suggest that other soil factors than salinity and sodicity are affecting soil structural breakdown. This calls for further investigation. The study provides valuable information in the form of risk zones of soil structural breakdown for land management. These zones, with a probability of mechanical soil dispersion of >0.70, require immediate management attention with greater monitoring and amelioration techniques, particularly gypsum or lime application and/or altered cultivation techniques.