A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.

Motivation of Japanese companies to take environmental action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions: an econometric analysis

To analyze the motivations of Japanese companies to take environmental actions to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we used FY2006 research data and questioned Japanese industries regarding their reduction of GHG emissions. Empirical investigations revealed that voluntary targets set by industry organizations, government requirements, and advance responses to possible future regulations can positively influence environmental actions for GHG emission reduction; however, cost reductions and corporate social responsibility fulfillment cannot.

Urban water-related environmental transitions in Southeast Asia

This article reviews water-related urban environmental conditions in Southeast Asia. It argues that the development of urban environmental challenges in the region follows a unique pattern compared with those experienced in the now developed world. The new pattern is defined by the so called time–space telescoping of the development process. The process of time–space telescoping reduces the levels of income at which environmental challenges emerge and forces their appearance in a simultaneous fashion, as sets of problems. During previous eras, cities experienced sequential environmental transitions. Urban water-related environmental burdens emerged on local scales and expanded geographically and temporally in impact, with growing levels of affluence. Moreover, certain environmental challenges appeared later in economic growth because the technologies and practices that induced these problems emerged at higher levels of income. The article has two main findings. First, except for wealthy urban centers, for example Singapore, cities in the region are experiencing multi-scaled water burdens simultaneously. Second, low-income and middle-income cities are experiencing burdens at lower levels of income than did their contemporaries in the north.

Ten years of international scientific cooperation in fisheries,aquaculture and coastal zones: some preliminary lessons

The paper examines preliminary experiences with international scientific cooperation in fisheries, aquaculture and coastal zone issues through 90 projects in successive European Research Framework Programmes (FP4–FP6: 1994–2006). FPs had increasingly ambitious objectives in response to international commitments, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Millennium Development Goals, the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation and dialogue with partner regions. Sustainable aquatic food production in the context of respect for ecosystems was a central concern. Engagement with different social actors and attention to investment in education, people and institutions enabled uptake of research results in education, innovation and some impact. The emphasis in several recent projects on more integrated analyses and knowledge products in the public domain is an encouraging response to the growing crisis of aquatic resource systems. It is suggested that significant up-scaling will be required. This might be done through institutional internalisation and better translation of research results into policy developments supportive of transitions towards sustainable production systems and ecosystem rehabilitation. Capacity building to use research in novel ways and other enabling mechanisms need to be put in place to increase societal and environmental benefits of the research.

Policy sciences contributions to analysis to promote sustainability

The policy sciences, in offering the most comprehensive approach to policy analysis and the sociopolitical processes that shape policy outcomes, is particularly appropriate for guiding the analysis required to promote sustainability. This article presents the main components of the policy sciences framework and demonstrates its potency in the crucial task of deepening the problem definitions required to select and enact policies to promote sustainability. As such, it provides background for the policy sciences articles of this special feature.

Social determinants of soil and water conservation in rural Kenya

Soil erosion is a major environmental problem and threat to rural development in Kenya. Numerous attempts to address the problem have apparently had little success. There are however some districts that have been very successful, notably Machakos. In this study we search for the factors that determine successful development in soil conservation such as social capital, human capital and market integration. One of our main results is that social capital measures are significant determinants of investment in soil conservation. A better understanding of the relevant mechanisms is essential for developing policies targeting improvement in natural resource management.

A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change. Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.

The benefits of the Kyoto Protocol to developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol relies on incentive-based regulations layered underneath a global cap on net emissions of greenhouse gases. Within the Kyoto Protocol are opportunities and constraints for signatory nations. Of concern to developing nations are the constraints the Kyoto Protocol could place on future growth. We examine the constraints and the opportunities offered to developing countries within the Kyoto Protocol. By identifying the potential costs and benefits the Kyoto Protocol has to offer to developing countries and by examining the incentives each create, we hope to spark serious investigations into ways to minimize the potential costs of entering the Kyoto Protocol and take full advantage of the potential benefits.

Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe

Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources.

Building sustainable & resilient communities: a balancing of community capital

Working toward sustainable community is a complex task for communities especially given the ambiguous nature of implementing the concept of sustainable development. However, by working to understand the nature of community capital, administrators can begin to move beyond bottom line thinking toward a more comprehensive and collective view of community. This paper presents a theoretical framework that helps municipal decision makers begin collecting information they need to help them build sustainable and resilient communities.

A heuristic for setting effective standards to ensure global environmental sustainability

Most environmental professionals and decision-makers, and certainly the public at large, hold the view that the integrity of earth’s natural environment will be conserved for posterity and sustainable development achieved if all the nations rigorously enforced their environmental and emission standards. It is argued in this paper that this view, sincerely held by many as an “axiomatic truth,” is mistaken and misplaced. This is because as a biogeochemical entity the Earth has limited self-regenerative capacity (SRC) to cope with anthropogenic pollution, and all kinds of environmental problems ensue when that limit is exceeded. Indeed, mounting environmental problems now occurring on all fronts amply testify to the fact that the limit has already been exceeded. They also provide necessary and sufficient proof that environmental and emission standards have been woefully inadequate for protecting earth’s natural environment and life-support systems. It is argued that true global environmental sustainability will be achieved, paving the way to true global sustainable development, if and only if global environmental and emission standards are set so that global anthropogenic pollution does not exceed the limit of earth’s natural SRC to cope with such pollution. These and related issues are discussed in this paper. A simple mathematical model using basic mathematics is also presented to explain how the phenomenon of “positive feedback” works in some of the environmental problems to exacerbate environmental degradation and progressively to erode nature’s SRC.

Watershed development in India. 1. Biophysical and societal impacts

This paper recommends a revision of watershed development policy in India in relation to the planning of development interventions involving agricultural intensification and rainwater harvesting following biophysical and societal impact studies carried out on two watershed development projects in Karnataka. A need for changes in policy has arisen in response to progressive catchments closure at the basin level and declining volumes of water flowing into village level reservoirs (known locally as tanks). Flow reductions have occurred largely as a result of increased agricultural intensification over the past 10–15 years. Field levelling, field bund construction, soil water conservation measures, farm ponds, the increase in areas under horticulture and forestry and the increased abstraction and use of groundwater for irrigation are all contributing factors to reduced flows. Planning methodologies and approaches, which may have been appropriate 20 years ago for planning water harvesting within watershed development projects, are no longer appropriate today. New planning approaches are required which (1) take account of these changed flow conditions and (2) are also able to take account of externalities, which occur when actions of some affect the livelihoods of others who have no control or influence over such activities and which (3) contribute to the maintenance of agreed minimum downstream flows for environmental and other purposes.

Europe–Middle East–North Africa cooperation for sustainable electricity and water

This report summarizes the results of two studies of electricity supply for Europe (EU), the Middle East (ME) and North Africa (NA) up to the year 2050. It shows that a transition to competitive, secure and sustainable supply of electricity and water is possible using renewable energy sources, efficiency gains and fossil fuel backup for balancing power. A strong cooperation between the EU and MENA for the market introduction of renewable energy and the interconnection of the electricity grids by high-voltage direct-current transmission are keys to the success and survival of the whole region. However, the necessary measures will take at least two decades to become effective. Therefore, adequate policy and economic frameworks for their realization must be introduced immediately. The importance of sustainable energy for the security of freshwater supplies in MENA is also described.

On several issues regarding efforts toward a sustainable society

Environmental issues and the future sustainability of society are among the greatest concerns facing society today. How to formulate a pathway toward a sustainable society is a critical question. Several issues associated with this question are presented and discussed. First, a structuring of the issues is presented. The environment can be said to consist of three systems—the natural, social, and human—and their interactions; environmental problems may therefore be defined in terms of perturbations of the interactions among the three systems. A sustainable society can be realized by restoring these interactions. Next, the characteristics of the issues are discussed. Because environmental issues relate to the future, forecasts of the future are essential. Because it is impossible to predict the future with complete accuracy, however, we should develop a method of using information about the future with allowance for error. It should be noted that error characteristics differ according to their time-scale. Third, the relationship between environmental issues and society is discussed. To take collective action on these issues we need society-wide consensus, which requires a reliable and objective platform. Here, more attention must be paid to the distribution of knowledge across society, because scientific knowledge in a modern society tends to be monopolized by research organizations. The role of the media is therefore important. Another important factor is the commitment of the general public; user-friendly ways of galvanizing such commitment should be developed.

Managing the rural–urban transformation in East Asia in the 21st century

This article explores the special features of the rural–urban transformation in East Asia in the last 30 years within the broader context of the development strategies of Asian governments. Despite an ongoing commitment to the rhetoric of concern with rural development, food security and the alleviation of rural poverty, these policies have emphasised the important role of urbanisation as the prime process influencing economic growth. This is supported by the economic argument that the economies of scale, the creation of mass urban markets and the higher productivity that occur in urban places make them crucial to development. This paper argues that this approach creates a false dichotomy between rural and urban areas, whereas development should aim to increase the linkages between rural and urban areas aimed at producing societal transformations rather than separate rural and urban transitions. The paper then explores the empirical evidence of rural–urban transitions in East Asia with a more detailed case study of China, which is considered to be a crucial example because of the size of its population, the special conditions of market socialism and its institutional capacity to manage the rural–urban transformation. The final section focusses on the importance of developing spatial sensitivity to the management of the rural–urban transformation in the 21st century. Old divisions between rural and urban sectors must be replaced by planning that integrates urban and rural activities so that they adopt sustainable management strategies which utilise concepts of eco-systems in which rural and urban activities are linked, so as to create sustainable urban regions, cities and societies.

Long-term strategy for sustainable development: strategies to promote far-sighted action

Given progress in policies for pursuing sustainable development, promoting commitment to thinking and acting more far-sightedly has become the primary strategic challenge. In the face of impatience, selfishness, uncertainty, analytical limitations, and vulnerability, strategies for promoting far-sightedness can be identified by assessing how these obstacles can be overcome. Strategies for creating or rescheduling tangible and deference rewards, realigning performance evaluations, implementing cognitive exercises, framing communications, altering decision-making processes, using self-restraint devices both to resist temptation and to enhance credibility, altering institutions to empower the patient, and stabilizing living conditions are the major categories for identifying and assessing the many strategies which arise out of both ordinary and constitutive policy initiatives.

Training future experts in “biodiversity and ecosystem services”: a progress report

Biodiversity is essential for multiple aspects of human life and well-being, but many current assessments of the functioning of biodiversity and ecosystems, understanding of risks posed by environmental change and the best practice of their management of ecosystems are lacking a unified scientific and conceptual basis. Methods such as scenario analysis, and terms such as ecosystem services, are widely used, but their meaning is understood in many different ways depending on context, user needs and experience of researchers. In order to advance the conceptual basis for ecosystem analysis and management in a rapidly changing world, as well as the ability of young scientists to reflect upon these concepts, we have organised five 2-week-long summer schools in Peyresq, a remote village in the Southern French Alps. In total 173 participants have worked intensively with 69 experienced researchers and a team of conveners and tutors in order to discuss a broad range of views on topics on ecosystem analysis and functioning. Topics ranged from conditions of and threats to various ecosystems due to environmental change, models and scenarios for assessment, stakeholder perceptions and needs for information, to the social and economic contexts for biodiversity. We report our experience from these schools, present the training concept which has emerged from them and suggest lines of further development.

The influence of climate and dam construction on the Ibera wetlands, Argentina

The purpose of this work is to assess the impact on the Esteros del Ibera wetland ecosystem caused by the Yacyreta dam, a large hydroelectric power plant on the Parana River, Argentina, in comparison to other factors of environmental change. The project of the dam started around 1970. The power plant began operating in 1994. In 1989, the neighboring Ibera wetland ecosystem showed a substantial increase in the water level for which several different causes were conceivable, including climate change and the dam construction. We analyzed all existing hydrometeorological data and studied other changes that were observed in this ecosystem. A water balance model was used to analyze different scenarios. Increased groundwater inflow, generated since the construction of the dam, appears to be affecting the wetland more than any other factor. The study has implications for the assessment of global and regional consequences of building dams.

Using a functional approach to wetland valuation: the case of Zazari–Cheimaditida

This study proposes the valuation of wetland functions as an alternative to the conventional approach to wetland valuation, in order to derive indicators for decision-making in wetland management. It is illustrated that these functions can be valuated in terms of the goods and services they provide to society. Using a functional approach, the functions are identified and the goods and services they provide are explicitly allocated among them; then, the latter are valuated with the Contingent Valuation method. Statistical analysis of the data provides welfare measures that reflect the value of these functions. It is argued that the values of separate functions are more useful in policy-making than their aggregated value.