Probabilistic indicators of atmospheric transport for regional monitoring and emergency preparedness systems

In this paper, following a methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the Nordic Arctic Research Programme, several probabilistic indicators to evaluate the risk site possible impact on the geographical regions, territories, countries, counties, cities, etc., due to atmospheric transport from the risk site region were suggested. These indicators-maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, and typical transport time-were constructed by applying statistical methods and using a dataset of isentropic trajectories originated over the selected nuclear risk site (Ignalina nuclear power plant, Lithuania) during 1991-1996. For this site, the areas enclosed by isolines of the maximum possible impact zone and maximum reaching distance indicators are equal to 42 x 10(4) and 703 x 10(4) km(2), respectively. The maximum possible impact zone's boundaries are more extended in the southeast sector from the site and include, in particular, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and several western regions of Russia. The maximum reaching distance's boundaries are twice more extended in the eastern direction from the site (reaching the Caspian Sea) compared with the western direction. The typical transport time to reach the southern territories of Sweden and Finland, northern regions of Ukraine, and northeast of Poland is 1 day. During this time, the atmospheric transport could typically occur over the Baltic States, Belarus, and western border regions of Russia, and central aquatoria of the Baltic Sea. Detailed analysis of temporal patterns for these indicators showed importance of the seasonal variability.     

Discharge of 137Cs and 90Sr by Finnish rivers to the Baltic Sea in 1986-1996

The total amounts of 137Cs and 90Sr transported from Finland by rivers into the Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Bothnia and Archipelago Sea since 1986 were estimated. The estimates were based on long-term monitoring of 137Cs and 90Sr in river and other surface waters and on the statistics of water discharges from Finnish rivers to the above sub-areas of the Baltic Sea. The total amounts of 137Cs and 90Sr removed from Finland into the Baltic Sea during 1986-1996 were estimated to be 65 and 10 TBq, respectively. The results show that, although the deposition of 137Cs was much higher than that of 90Sr after the Chernobyl accident, the amount of 137Cs removed from Finland is only six times as high as that of 90Sr. This emphasizes the importance of 90Sr while considering radiation doses from surface waters and 137Cs while estimating doses via pathways from catchment soil, lake sediments and biota after a fallout situation.     

Level and origin of iodine-129 in the Baltic Sea

Environmental samples, such as seawater, seaweed, lake water, lake sediment and grass collected from the Baltic Sea area were analyzed for 129I and 127I by radiochemical neutron activation analysis. In 2000, the concentration of 129I in the seawater from Borholm and M?en in the Baltic Sea has reached 6.0 x 10(-13) and 16 x 10(-13) g/l, respectively, these are more than two orders of magnitude higher than the global fallout level. The highest value of 270 x 10(-13) g/l being found in the seawater from the Kattegat. By comparison of the level of 129I in the lake water and precipitation in this region, it is estimated that more than 95% of 129I in the Baltic Sea originates from reprocessing emissions, especially from the French nuclear fuel reprocessing plant at La Hague. More than 30% of 129I in the south Baltic and 93% in the Kattegat directly originates from the marine discharges of the European reprocessing plants.     

Predicting CO2 and SO2 emissions in the Baltic States through reorganization of energy infrastructure

The paper deals with predicting carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions generated by power production sector in the Baltic States in period up to year 2020. The economies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are rapidly growing therefore forecast of emissions related with this occurrence becomes very important. The Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP), one of the largest in the world, is situated in the region. Two power production scenarios are modelled to investigate changes in power sector's emissions expected as the consequences of the coming closure of Ignalina NPP. Power market was assumed to be common for all three Baltic countries and was modelled by applying the Balmorel model. The planned closure of Ignalina NPP will bring restructuring of Lithuania power production sector and will change also power transmission between countries. Predictive identified the potential of investments for new modern power generation technologies. At the same time, modelling results show in both scenarios that CO(2) and SO(2) emissions from power production in the Baltic region will increase. The increment of emissions is discussed in the context of meeting requirements of UNFCCC Kyoto protocol and EC Directives. Despite of CO(2) emissions increase the Kyoto protocol's requirements may be expected. At the same time, SO(2) formation in Lithuania power sector may exceed the limits of the EU Council Directive 2001/80/EB therefore the additional measures to control SO(2) emissions have to be investigated.     

Long-term study of 99Tc in the marine environment on the Swedish west coast

The activity concentration of (99)Tc in brown seaweed (Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus) and seawater were analysed in samples collected in 1991, 1995 and 2001 at several stations along the Swedish west coast. In addition to these locations, a well-defined site (S?rdal, 56.76 degrees N, 12.63 degrees E) was included with (99)Tc activity concentration data in seaweed from 1967 to 2000. Over the years, the major source of (99)Tc in the coastal waters of western Sweden has been the radioactive liquid discharge from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Sellafield (UK) transported via ocean currents in the North Sea. The (99)Tc activity concentration in seaweed at the S?rdal site increased from approximately 30 Bq kg(-1) up to 230 Bq kg(-1) (dry weight) between 1997 and 2000 due to the Sellafield EARP (Enhanced Actinide Removal Plant) discharges in 1995-1996, yielding an approximate transport time of 4-5 years between the Irish Sea and the Kattegat. Due to the very sharp gradient in (99)Tc concentration between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, (99)Tc is presently one of the best transit tracers for the recent ventilation events in the Baltic Sea.     

Contamination of settling ponds and rivers as a result of discharge of radium-bearing waters from Polish coal mines

Saline waters from underground coal mines in Poland often contain natural radioactive isotopes, mainly 226Ra from the uranium decay series and 228Ra from the thorium series. Approximately 40% of the total amount of radium remains underground as radioactive deposits, but 225 MBq of 226Ra and 400 MBq of 228Ra are released daily into the rivers along with the other mine effluents from all Polish coal mines. Technical measures such as inducing the precipitation of radium in gobs, decreasing the amount of meteoric inflow water into underground workings, etc. have been undertaken in several coal mines, and as a result of these measures, the total amount of radium released to the surface waters has diminished by about 60% during the last 5-6 years. Mine water can have a severe impact on the natural environment, mainly due to its salinity. However, associated high levels of radium concentration in river waters, bottom sediments and vegetation have also been observed. Sometimes radium concentrations in rivers exceed 0.7 kBq/m3, which is the permitted level for waste waters under Polish law. The extensive investigations described here were carried out for all coal mines and on this basis the total radium balance in the effluents has been calculated. Measurements in the vicinity of mine settling ponds and in rivers have given us an opportunity to study radium behaviour in river waters and to assess the degree of contamination. Solid waste materials with enhanced natural radioactivity have been produced in huge amounts in the power and coal industries in Poland. As a result of the combustion of coal in power plants, low-radioactive waste materials are produced, with 226Ra concentration seldom exceeding a few hundreds of Bq/kg. A different situation is observed in coal mines, where, as a result of precipitation of radium from radium-bearing waters, highly radioactive deposits are formed. Sometimes the radioactivity of such materials is extremely high; precipitates from coal mines may have radium concentrations of 400,000 Bq/kg--equivalent to 3% uranium ore. Usually, such deposition takes place underground, but sometimes co-precipitation of radium with barium takes place on the surface, in settling ponds and in rivers. Therefore management of solid waste with technologically enhanced natural radioactivity (TENR) is a very important subject.     

Contamination of the southern Baltic Sea with 137Cs and 90Sr over the period 2000-2004

Changes of the (137)Cs activity concentrations in the southern Baltic Sea waters were investigated over the period 2000-2004 and distribution of the (90)Sr concentrations was determined in 2004. In the discriminated period further decrease of (137)Cs concentrations was observed. The average activity concentration of (137)Cs declined from 59.4Bq/m(3) in 2000 to 45.1Bq/m(3) in 2004. The greatest changes of (137)Cs activities occurred in 2003 as a consequence of the medium-size inflow of a saline waters from the North Sea. This inflow affected (137)Cs activities as well as its distribution in the Baltic Sea. Changes in (90)Sr activity concentrations proceeded at much slower rate. The average activity concentration of (90)Sr was equal to 8.7Bq/m(3) in 2004. The annual fluvial (137)Cs fluxes from the Vistula river were also estimated. In 2000, the (137)Cs load from Vistula was of an order of 0.15TBq/year, and in 2004 0.05TBq/year.     

137Cs and 90Sr behavioural regularities in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea

Variations in 137Cs concentrations were investigated over the period 1986-1997 in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea, following the Chernobyl power plant accident. The rate of "self-cleaning" was demonstrated to be very slow, the average concentration of 137Cs in 1996 being almost the same as that measured directly after the accident, in 1986. Measurements of both 137Cs and 90Sr concentrations generally revealed homogeneous distributions in this region of the Baltic Sea, though patchy distributions did develop under some hydrometeorological conditions. Specifically, the 137Cs concentration distribution became heterogeneous with values varying in the range 60-92 Bq/m3 under south-southwesterly wind conditions whilst the 90Sr concentration distribution developed similar characteristics with values ranging from 15 to 64 Bq/m3 under east-southeasterly wind conditions. In addition, in coastal waters, over extensive periods of north-northwesterly winds in 1995, 137Cs concentrations increased to values 1.5-2 times the overall average concentration, which was registered in 1986 and 1996. These data therefore reveal a continuing significant pollution of the waters of the Baltic Sea resulting from the Chernobyl power plant accident, a pollution compounded by the slow rate of radionuclide self-cleaning and significant probability of sudden regional concentration increase.     

Convergence of new members of the EU: changes in household consumption expenditure structure regarding environmental impact during the prosperous period

The materially intensive consumption patterns and lifestyles present a major challenge to sustainability. The major part of consumption is determined in households; therefore, most of the environmental load is allocated to households as well. In order to examine how environmental impact by household consumption varies during the prosperous period, one needs to explore the alteration of household consumption structure, considering that discrete consumption expenditure categories influence environmental impact distinctly. Regarding that, alterations of household consumption expenditure structures are also partially influenced by European integration process. So convergence of new member states of the EU to the old ones by household consumption structure was analyzed. For estimation of occurrence and the extent of household consumption structure, X-convergence was applied. Therefore, the results showed that during the period of 1995–2007, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia were the most successful and Latvia with Poland achieved the least in converging toward the EU-15 consumption expenditure structure. According to evaluation of distinct consumption categories in relation to acidifying compounds and greenhouse gas emissions intensities, it was revealed that alterations of household consumption expenditure structure led to smaller levels of household environmental impact with the exception of Hungary.     

POSEIDON/RODOS models for radiological assessment of marine environment after accidental releases: application to coastal areas of the Baltic, Black and North Seas

In the framework of the developments of the European system RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn support System) for emergency response to nuclear accident, the computer code POSEIDON, that was developed to assess the radiological consequences of radioactive releases into marine environment, was adapted to cope with emergency conditions, in situations of radioactive discharges into the oceans from direct deposition from the atmosphere, sunken ships and containers, from discharges of rivers and estuaries and from coastal run-off. Based on the box model developed within the 'Marina' project, POSEIDON can calculate the dose effects from radionuclide releases in the coastal waters of Europe integrated over long time periods. A dynamic food chain model was implemented to deal with the short-term dynamical uptake of radioactivity by specific marine plants and organisms. POSEIDON has been installed on a UNIX platform to be fully compatible with RODOS input/output databases and on a Windows platform with an interface based on web technology. The 3D hydrodynamic model THREETOX is a part of the POSEIDON/RODOS system. It has been applied to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the North Sea. to derive the parameters for a flexible system of well-defined model compartments to be adapted to emergency conditions. The activity concentrations in water and in the marine food web were calculated by means of POSEIDON for radioactive fallout resulting from bomb testing, from the Chernobyl accident, and from routine discharges from nuclear facilities. POSEIDON's model results were compared with measurement data, and with calculation results from THREETOX. The model results agreed with the measurement data sufficiently.     

Plutonium bioaccumulation in seabirds

The aim of the paper was plutonium (²³⁸Pu and ^239+240Pu) determination in seabirds, permanently or temporarily living in northern Poland at the Baltic Sea coast. Together 11 marine birds species were examined: 3 species permanently residing in the southern Baltic, 4 species of wintering birds and 3 species of migrating birds. The obtained results indicated plutonium is non-uniformly distributed in organs and tissues of analyzed seabirds. The highest plutonium content was found in the digestion organs and feathers, the smallest in skin and muscles. The plutonium concentration was lower in analyzed species which feed on fish and much higher in herbivorous species. The main source of plutonium in analyzed marine birds was global atmospheric fallout.     

234U and 238U isotopes in water and sediments of the southern Baltic

The aim of this work was to determine the concentration of 234U and 238U and calculate the values of the 234U/238U activity ratio in waters and sediments from the various regions of the southern Baltic Sea: Gdańsk Deep, S?upsk Narrow and Bornholm Deep. The concentration of uranium in analysed sediments from southern Baltic increase with core depth to what probably is connected with diffusion from sediments to water through interstitial water, where uranium concentration is much higher than in bottom water. The highest concentrations of uranium were observed in sediments of S?upsk Narrow (0.66-7.11 mg kg(-1) d.w.) and S?upsk Bank (0.61-6.93 mg kg(-1) d.w.), the lowest in sediments from Bornholm Deep (0.54-3.77 mg kg(-1) d.w.). The 234U/238U activity ratio results indicated that the sedimentation of terrigenic material and Vistula River transport are the general sources of uranium in the southern Baltic sediments. The value of 234U/238U activity ratio in sediments from reduction areas from southern Baltic (Gdańsk Deep and Bornholm Deep) indicated that reduction process of U(VI) to U(IV) and removing of anthropogenic uranium from seawater to sediments constitutes a small part only in Gdańsk Deep.     

127I and 129I/127I isotopic ratio in marine alga Fucus virsoides from the North Adriatic Sea

The only stable iodine isotope is 127I and the natural 129I/127I ratio in the biosphere has increased from 10(-15)-10(-14) to 10(-10)-10(-9), mainly due to emissions from nuclear fuel reprocessing plants. In Europe they are located at La Hague (France) and Sellafield (England), where the ratio of 129I/127I is up to 10(-4). The marine environment, i.e. the oceans, is the major source of iodine with average concentrations of around 60 mirogL(-1) iodine in seawater. Brown algae accumulate iodine at high levels of up to 1.0% of dry weight, and therefore they are an ideal bioindicator for studying the levels of 127I and 129I in the marine environment. A radiochemical neutron activation analysis (RNAA) method, developed at our laboratory, was used for 129I determination in the brown alga Fucus virsoides (Donati) J. Agardh, and the same technique of RNAA was used for total 127I determination. The samples were collected along the coast of the Gulf of Trieste and the West coast of Istria in the North Adriatic Sea in the period from 2005 to 2006. Values of the 129I/127I ratio up to 10(-9) were found, which is in agreement with the present average global distribution of 129I. The levels of stable iodine found were in the range from 235 to 506 microg g(-1) and the levels of 129I from 1.7 to 7.3 x 10(-3)Bq kg(-1) (2.6-10.9 x 10(-7) microg g(-1)), on a dry matter basis.     

Swedish nutrient reduction policies: an evaluation of cost-effectiveness

Since more than 30 years, the Swedish government as well as other governments in the drainage basin strives toward a reduction in nutrient loads to Baltic Sea coastal waters in order to combat eutrophication of the sea. In spite of this, the cost-effectiveness of actual environmental policy for meeting Baltic Sea nutrient targets has not been evaluated by national or international bodies in the region. The aim of this paper is to evaluate Swedish national nitrogen and phosphorus policies with regard to cost-effectiveness. This is done through a comparison of nutrient measures implemented through environmental policy decisions 1995–2005 with cost-effective policies for present national as well as Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets. The cost-effective measures are calculated using an empirical programming model including all countries adjacent to the Baltic Sea. Calculations show that measures that jointly reduce nitrogen and phosphorus are hardly applied in actual policy and that reductions in the agricultural sector are much smaller than is cost-effective. Data show, surprisingly, that considerable reductions have been carried out in the Bothnian Sea catchment in spite of there being no nutrient reduction target for this catchment. Results suggest also that the Swedish costs for meeting the new and geographically more restricted targets under the BSAP can be reduced if a policy with less restrictions on the location of phosphorus abatement is applied, compared to what is now suggested.     

Reference conditions for rivers of the German Baltic Sea catchment: reconstructing nutrient regimes using the model MONERIS

We introduce an approach for establishing reference conditions (RC) for rivers of the German Baltic Sea catchment, based on predictive modelling. An extensive data set of statistics from the year 1880 was coupled with literature data, providing a comprehensive basis for the calculation of regional historical nutrient emissions into rivers, river nutrient concentrations, and nutrient loading into the sea. Four different scenarios were calculated: scenario 1 assumed RC following previously established criteria for lakes (Poikane et al. in Environ Manag 45(6):1286–1298, 2010), scenario 4 applied the nutrient emission conditions of 1880 (considering non-intensive land usage, the presence of tile drainage systems, sewer systems, and the human population from 1880), and scenarios 2 and 3 considered intermediate conditions. Our results showed that nutrient emissions from scenario 1 accounted for approximately one-tenth of the currently observed total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) emissions. The nutrient emissions calculated for 1880 (scenario 4) were found to be 47 % (TN) and 55 % (TP) higher than those calculated considering reference lake conditions (scenario 1). Our results suggest that RC nutrient concentrations in rivers in the German Baltic Sea catchment were clearly below 0.05 mg/l for TP and 1 mg/l for TN. This range is in accordance with historical and calculated pristine nutrient concentrations from other rivers in similar catchments.     

The economic value of coastal waters as nutrient filters for the Baltic Sea

This paper calculates the economic value of coastal zones as nutrient filters by using the replacement cost method, which implies that the value is calculated as the savings in costs from reaching politically determined future nutrient target. It is shown that the magnitude of this value depends on the cost of other abatement measures besides nutrient filters of coastal zones, the stringency and timing of the nutrient target, discount rate, and spatial and temporal dispersions of cleaning impacts. The application to the Baltic Sea indicates that the value can amount to approximately 600 billions of SEK (1 Euro = 9.01 SEK, June 3, 2012), which corresponds to 1.9 % of the Baltic Sea region’s total gross domestic product. The largest gains are obtained by Poland because this country faces the largest financial burdens of meeting targets.     

Tracing anthropogenic nuclear activity with (129)I in lake sediment

This study reports the first data of (129)I fallout in Scandinavia, covering the last 80 years. The investigation is based on sediment sections from a lake in central Sweden. In addition to analysis of (129)I, a combination of several radionuclides ((210)Pb, (137)Cs and (14)C) was used to establish an accurate chronology of the sediment profile. The concentration of (129)I exhibits an increasing trend ( approximately 10(7) to approximately 10(9)atoms/g) during the last 40 years, suggesting a significant atmospheric input from the nuclear reprocessing facilities in Sellafield (UK) and La Hague (France). A peak corresponding to fallout from the Chernobyl accident (1986) is clearly distinguishable, whereas the impact of fallout from the nuclear weapons' tests since the early 1950s is not distinguished.     

Effectiveness of short-term knowledge communication on Baltic Sea marine genetic biodiversity to public managers

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of two forms of short-term knowledge communication—lectures and group deliberations—on public managers’ policy beliefs regarding genetic biodiversity in the Baltic Sea. Genetic biodiversity is a key component of biological variation, but despite scientific knowledge and far-reaching political goals, genetic biodiversity remains neglected in marine management. Previous research highlights lack of knowledge among managers as one explanation to the implementation deficit. This multidisciplinary study builds on the identified need for an improved knowledge transfer between science and ongoing management. A basic knowledge package on genetic biodiversity in the Baltic Sea was presented as either a lecture or a deliberative group discussion to two separate samples of public managers who are involved in Baltic Sea and other biodiversity management at the regional level in Sweden. The empirical findings show that the communicated information has an impact on the public managers’ beliefs on genetic biodiversity of the Baltic Sea. Lectures seem more efficient to transfer knowledge on this theme. Those who received information through a lecture strengthen their confidence in area protection as a management tool to conserve genetic diversity. They were also more convinced of the obligation of authorities at national and regional level to take on larger responsibility for genetic conservation than those managers who participated in a deliberative discussion.

     

Correction to: Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

     

Use of 129I and 137Cs in soils for the estimation of 131I deposition in Belarus as a result of the Chernobyl accident

Using radioactivity measurements for 131I and 137Cs and nuclear activation analysis (NAA) or accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for 129I, ratios of 131I/137Cs and 129I/137Cs have been determined in soils from Belarus. We find that the pre-Chernobyl ratio of 129I/137Cs in Belarus is significantly larger than expected from nuclear weapons fallout. For the Chernobyl accident, our results support the hypothesis that there was relatively little fractionation of iodine and caesium during migration and deposition of the radioactive cloud. For sites having 137Cs > 300 Bq/kg, 129I can potentially give more reliable retroactive estimates of Chernobyl 131I deposition. However, our results suggest that 137Cs can also give reasonably good (+/-50%) estimates for 131I in Belarus.