Crop responses to climate and socioeconomic change in northern regions

Climate, farmers’ actions and previous cultivation history influence regional crop yields and drive autonomous adaptation in time. Proceeding climate change will induce needs for various adaptation measures in the future, especially in the northern regions. We investigated how farms take advantage of novel opportunities in Finland as dictated by the biophysical environment, farmer experience and knowledge, and the dynamics of the socioeconomic environment. Using Finland as a case, we aimed to characterize the relation of regional climate and yield development of the four major cereal crops since 1965 and of spring rape since 1978. Yields in the northernmost regions were most responsive to growing season temperature sum and precipitation. However, yield levels in southern relative to northern and eastern areas have polarized through the period, which might be an indication of a socioeconomic rather than a climate-related response. As socioeconomic factors can be more deterministic for targeting autonomous adaptation on farms, regionally planned proactive adaptation strategies are needed to prepare for long-term changes such as the climate change.     

The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

Human activities are projected to lead to substantial increases in temperature that will impact northern Europe during winter and southern Europe during summer. Moreover, it is expected that these changes will cause increasing water shortages along the Mediterranean and in the south-west Balkans and in the south of European Russia. The consequences on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to vary widely depending on the cropping system being investigated (i.e. cereals vs. forage crops vs. perennial horticulture), the region and the likely climate changes. In northern Europe, increases in yield and expansion of climatically suitable areas are expected to dominate, whereas disadvantages from increases in water shortage and extreme weather events (heat, drought, storms) will dominate in southern Europe. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean and south-eastern parts of Europe. Among the adaptation options (i.e. autonomous or planned adaptation strategies) that may be explored to minimize the negative impacts of climate changes and to take advantage of positive impacts, changes in crop species, cultivar, sowing date, fertilization, irrigation, drainage, land allocation and farming system seem to be the most appropriate. In adopting these options, however, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and economic functions in different European regions.     

Has recent climate warming affected the dates of bird arrival to the Il℉men Reserve in the Southern Urals?

The results of regression and correlation analyses of long-term data (1971–2005) on the dates of arrival of 16 bird species to the Il’men State Nature Reserve (the Southern Urals) show that they have not changed in most of these birds, unlike in many countries of Europe and North America. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in the dynamics of spring air temperatures in the study region. Only the herring gull Larus argentatus and the lapwing Vanellus vanellus have shown a significant tendency to arrive earlier, while the garganey Anas querquedula has shown a tendency to arrive on later dates in the past two decades. Nevertheless, interannual fluctuations in the dates of arrival are well manifested in both early arriving species wintering in Europe and late-arriving species wintering in Africa. These fluctuations largely depend on temperature conditions in spring. As a rule, almost all species studied—from waterbirds to passerines—appear in the Il’men Reserve earlier in years with early and warm springs than in cold years. Hence, spring weather is the key factor determining the dates of arrival of migratory birds to the study region.     

Climate change in Algeria and its impact on durum wheat

According to IPCC reports, the Mediterranean basin and particularly the North African area are amongst the most vulnerable regions to climate change. However, the information concerning the North African zone is very limited, and studies on climate change have never been conducted in Algeria up to now. This paper aims at bridging this information gap and initiates a first research on the impact of climate change on durum wheat cropping, the most strategic commodity in the food system and in the national economy of Algeria. Climate projections for the distant future (2071–2100), obtained from the ARPEGE-Climate model of Météo-France run under the medium A1B SRES scenario, are introduced into a simple agrometeorological crop model previously validated with field data. Two options for the sowing date are assessed: a dynamical date, chosen within the traditional sowing window by means of a rainfall criterion, or a prescribed date with supplemental irrigation on the same day. Crop development is modelled using thermal time, and maximum yield is determined from the accumulation of solar radiation. A water stress index is inferred from a daily water balance model, and actual yield is estimated from potential yield corrected by the water stress index. The model also takes into account the occurrence of dry periods during the growing season, which can induce partial or total failure of the crop cycle. Two stations, representative of two of the three agroclimatic areas where durum wheat is grown, were chosen: Algiers in the central northern region and Bordj Bou Arreridj in the eastern high plains. Climate change is not similar for both areas, but a tendency towards aridity is clear especially in spring. Future temperature and potential evapotranspiration increase in both regions with a maximum in spring and summer. In Algiers, rainfall will decrease throughout the year and mainly in spring and summer. Conversely, summer precipitation in Bordj Bou Arreridj will increase significantly. In both regions, the autumn rains will increase in the future climate, the possibilities of early sowing will be improved, crop cycle will be reduced, and harvest will take place earlier. In Algiers, yields tend to decrease in the future climate, whereas in Bordj Bou Arreridj, a dynamical (earlier) sowing will tend to keep yields at their current level.     

Contributions of genotypic and meteorological factors to variation of annual tree increment in clonal scots pine plantations

Variation in radial increments of 28-year-old Pinus sylvestris L. clones in response to changes in weather conditions during the period between 1986 and 2007 has been studied in the Sredneobskii Bor pine forest. Significant genotypic differences in the adaptive reaction norm of the clones have been revealed. It has been shown that the contribution of genotypic differences to the total variance of test characters is usually significant and depends both on the conditions of growing season and on a given increment character.     

Population dynamics of Great Bittern (Botaurus stellaris) in the Netherlands: interaction effects of winter weather and habitat fragmentation

The increased variability in weather as a manifestation of climate change is expected to have negative impacts on population survival in wildlife species, because it will likely lead to increased variation in vital demographic rates (mortality and reproduction) in these populations. For the effective protection of biodiversity, adaptation measures are needed to compensate for the expected increase in weather variability and the negative interaction with habitat fragmentation. As a case study, we studied the fluctuations in Great Bittern numbers (Botaurus stellaris) from 28 monitoring plots scattered over the Netherlands to explore the interaction between the effect of weather and possible remediating effects of the landscape structure. Great Bittern habitat surrounding these plots differs with respect to area, quality, and degree of isolation of this habitat. In western Europe, Great Bitterns are found to be susceptible to continuous loss of suitable habitat due to vegetation succession and fragmentation. Moreover, year-to-year fluctuations in local Great Bittern populations can be caused by severe winter weather or other weather extremes. Our results show that severe winter weather has indeed a significant negative impact on Great Bittern population growth rates. Furthermore, we found that an increased carrying capacity and spatial cohesion (i.e. inverse of habitat fragmentation) contribute to an increase in mean growth rates over the years. As growth rates are higher in large, well-connected habitats, we argue that recovery from negative effects of, e.g. severe winters on Great Bittern population numbers is enhanced in these less-fragmented habitats. We derived generic adaptation measures for enhancing the recovery rate of populations of species in general: one should invest in more large, well-connected nature areas, not only to diminish the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on wildlife populations, but additionally to reduce the impacts of climatic variability.     

Structure and dynamics of marginal Gymnadenia conopsea (L.) R. Br. (Orchidaceae) populations on limestones in the northeast of European Russia

Data are presented on the abundance, structure, and dynamics of hemipopulations of G. conopsea protocorms and autotrophic individuals at the northern boundary of the species range. The dynamics of ontogenetic structure of G. conopsea cenopopulations have a fluctuating pattern. Their response to adverse weather conditions is manifested in short-term reduction of density and increase in cenopopulation ageness in subsequent years. Deterioration of growing conditions in a series of ecotopes is accompanied by an increase in the proportion of young individuals, which allows the species to level off the impact of adverse weather factors on population size.     

Exploring the efficiency of bias corrections of regional climate model output for the assessment of future crop yields in Europe

Excessive summer drying and reduced growing season length are expected to reduce European crop yields in future. This may be partly compensated by adapted crop management, increased CO₂ concentration and technological development. For food security, changes in regional to continental crop yield variability may be more important than changes in mean yields. The assessment of changes in regional and larger scale crop variability requires high resolution and spatially consistent future weather, matching a specific climate scenario. Such data could be derived from regional climate models (RCMs), which provide changes in weather patterns. In general, RCM output is heavily biased with respect to observations. Due to the strong nonlinear relation between meteorological input and crop yields, the application of this biased output may result in large biases in the simulated crop yield changes. The use of RCM output only makes sense after sufficient bias correction. This study explores how RCM output can be bias corrected for the assessment of changes in European and subregional scale crop yield variability due to climate change. For this, output of the RCM RACMO of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute was bias corrected and applied within the crop simulation model WOrld FOod STudies to simulate potential and water limited yields of three divergent crops: winter wheat, maize and sugar beets. The bias correction appeared necessary to successfully reproduce the mean yields as simulated with observational data. It also substantially improved the year-to-year variability of seasonal precipitation and radiation within RACMO, but some bias in the interannual variability remained. This is caused by the fact that the applied correction focuses on mean and daily variability. The interannual variability of growing season length, and as a consequence the potential yields too, appeared even deteriorated. Projected decrease in mean crop yields is well in line with earlier studies. No significant change in crop yield variability was found. Yet, only one RCM is analysed in this study, and it is recommended to extend this study with more climate models and a slightly adjusted bias correction taking into account the variability of larger time scales as well.     

Modelling wheat production from low-rainfall farming systems in Northern Australia

Wheat yields are highly variable in northern Australia because rainfall is variable. Economic benefits from applying nitrogen fertilisers are uncertain because yield responses depend on a good supply of soil moisture during the growing of the crop to provide a high potential yield. While an experiment in 1996 indicated that up to 90 kg N/ha of N fertiliser is profitable, it was not known whether this response is reliable or typical. A crop model and historical climate records (1960–1993) were used in this study to produce a long-term record of yield and grain protein responses to N fertilisers. Responses in 1996 are shown to be atypical due to the favourable conditions in that year. Under typical growing conditions, it is not economic to use N fertiliser. The simulations quantified the relationship between responses to fertiliser and the amount of soil moisture available at sowing. Applications of N fertilisers will be most profitable if used when measurements indicate that the plant-available soil moisture content before sowing is above average.     

Analysis of long-term changes in the dates of seasonal phenomena in plants and insects of the Il’men Reserve as related to climatic factors

The results of monitoring the dates of the onset of flowering and leaf budding in eight herbaceous and woody plant species and the first appearance of three insect species in the Il’men Reserve (1972–2005) were processed by means of regression and correlation analyses. No significant changes in test parameters were revealed in the majority of these species. Only two early spring plants, coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.) and goat willow (Salix caprea L.), showed a weak tendency toward earlier flowering in the 1980s and 1990s. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in spring and summer air temperatures in the study region over the observation period. On the other hand, interannual fluctuations in the dates of plant flowering and insect appearance were well manifested not only in early spring but also in late-spring species. These fluctuations proved to depend largely on spring temperatures: in years with early and warm springs, flowering and leaf budding in plants and the appearance of first individuals in insects were recorded on significantly earlier dates.     

Gradient Genogeographic Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L. Populations in Europe

Gradients of Nei's genetic distances between 15 samples of Pinus sylvestris L. trees were analyzed along three submeridional transects, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean and Transcaucasia. As a result, distinct chorogenetic differentiation was revealed between the populations of this species growing in climatically specific regions of northern and southern Europe. Considerable Nei's distances (DN = 0.045–0.056) and their gradients, combined with differences in stable phenotypic characters (the composition of monoterpenes and morphological parameters of cones) determined at the Pyrenean and Caucasian mountain borders, suggest that the P. sylvestris species structure includes two South Eurasian subspecies, the Pyrenean P. sylvestris L., ssp. iberica Svoboda and the Transcaucasian P. sylvestris L., ssp. hamata (Stev.) Fomin.     

Vulnerability and adaptation of European farmers: a multi-level analysis of yield and income responses to climate variability

Climate change will affect crop yields and consequently farmers’ income. The underlying relationships are not well understood, particularly the importance of crop management and related factors at the farm and regional level. We analyze the impacts of trends and variability in climatic conditions from 1990 to 2003 on trends and variability in yields of five crops and farmers’ income at farm type and regional level in Europe considering farm characteristics and other factors. While Mediterranean regions are often characterized as most vulnerable to climate change, our data suggest effective adaptation to variable and changing conditions in these regions largely attributable to the characteristic farm types in these regions. We conclude that for projections of climate change impacts on agriculture, farm characteristics influencing management and adaptation should be considered, as they largely influence the potential impacts.     

Different perceptions of adaptation to climate change: a mental model approach applied to the evidence from expert interviews

We argue that differences in the perception and governance of adaptation to climate change and extreme weather events are related to sets of beliefs and concepts through which people understand the environment and which are used to solve the problems they face (mental models). Using data gathered in 31 in-depth interviews with adaptation experts in Europe, we identify five basic stakeholder groups whose divergent aims and logic can be related to different mental models they use: advocacy groups, administration, politicians, researchers, and media and the public. Each of these groups uses specific interpretations of climate change and specifies how to deal with climate change impacts. We suggest that a deeper understanding and follow-up of the identified mental models might be useful for the design of any stakeholder involvement in future climate impact research processes. It might also foster consensus building about adequate adaptation measures against climate threats in a society.     

The influence of climate change on the dates of bird arrival to the Ilmen State Reserve (Southern Urals)

The results of long-term observations (1983–2013) on the dates of arrival of migratory birds to the Ilmen State Reserve are presented. Based on their analysis, it is conclude that (1) there is no significant positive trend of spring temperatures in the territory of the reserve, and (2) an earlier arrival of the majority of bird species is not observed, unlike in Europe. The arrival has shifted to earlier dates in the Common Chaffinch (Fringilla coelebs), White Wagtail (Motacilla alba), and Black Kite (Milvus migrans). On the other hand, the arrival of the Tree Pipit (Anthus trivialis) is observed later than usual. Multiple regression analysis has shown that the arrival dates of most species that nest in the reserve are determined by the temperature regime of spring months in their nesting area.     

Population structure and dynamics of Monotarsobius curtipes (Myriapoda, Chilopoda) at the northern periphery of the species range

Studies on the population structure and dynamics of the stone centipede Monotarsobius curtipes C. Koch in soils of the northern Kola Peninsula have shown that, with respect to abundance and biomass, this species is a dominant of the soil macrofauna and, in particular, of the trophic group of zoophages. Life in high northern latitudes does not disturb the sex and age structure of populations but limits the reproductive activity of these centipedes. Specific biological features of M. curtipes at the northern periphery of its range include the absence of repeated breeding, completion of several developmental (age) stages within a short growing season, and long ontogeny involving several winterings.     

Climate anomalies as a factor of bird mortality in northern Yakutia

Five cases of mass mortality among shorebirds and small passerines under adverse weather conditions caused by a combination of several factors during spring migration were observed in the tundra and northern taiga between the Lena and Kolyma rivers in the period between 1978 and 2008. A tendency toward an increase in the frequency and spatial extent of such phenomena is noted. Data are presented on the species composition, numbers, and localization of dying birds as well as on the timing of mortality and its meteorological and ecological prerequisites, including relevant behavioral patterns.     

花果期持续受渍对油菜生长、产量与含油量的影响

油菜是江汉平原广泛栽培的越冬作物，在春季雨水较多时常遭遇持续受渍胁迫，对产量有明显影响。为了探索春季油菜田的排水管理，取得较高产量，通过测坑试验和小区试验，初步研究了花果斯持续受渍对油菜生长，产量和含油量的影响。结果表明：油菜花果期持续受渍，主要是通过单株的有效角果数，千粒重等因素影响产量；随着持续受渍时间的延长，各受渍处理的单株有效角果数减少，千粒重降低，产量下降，与对照相比，较短时间（比如2天）持续受渍对油菜生长发育，产量形成以及籽粒含油量影响不大，但较长时期持续受渍会对油菜的这些方面产生不良影响，此类水分胁迫是生产上重点防治的对象。因此，在考虑地下水位动脉及其作用时间对油菜影响的排渍指标研究中，应主要从持续受渍程度对产量的影响方面建立关系，确定适宜的新型排渍指标。     

Two thresholds determine climatic control of forest fire size in Europe and northern Africa

Fire weather indices predict fire extent from meteorological conditions assuming a monotonic function; this approach is frequently used to predict future fire patterns under climate change scenarios using linear extrapolation. However, the relationship between weather and fire extent may potentially depend on the existence of fuel moisture content thresholds above which this relationship changes dramatically, challenging this statistical approach. Here, we combine the continuous and the threshold approaches to analyze satellite-detected fires in Europe during 2001–2010 in relation to meteorological conditions, showing that fire size response to decreasing fuel moisture content follows a ramp function, i.e., with two plateaus separated by a phase of monotonic increase. This study confirms that at continental and high-resolution temporal scales, large fires are very unlikely to occur under moist conditions, but it also reveals that fire size stops to be controlled by fuel moisture content above a given threshold of dryness. Thus, fuel moisture content control only applies when fire is not limited by other factors such as fuel load, as large fires were virtually absent during the considered period in dry regions with less than 500 mm of average annual precipitation, i.e., low-productive areas where fuel amount would be scarce and discontinuous. In regions with sufficient fuel, other factors such as fire suppression or fuel discontinuity can impede large fires even under very dry weather conditions. These findings are relevant under current climatic trends in which the fire season length, in terms of number of days with drought code values above the observed thresholds (break points), is increasing in many parts of the Mediterranean, while it is decreasing in eastern Europe and remains unchanged in central Europe.     

Seasonal variation of the forewing in polyvoltine whites <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pieris rapae</Emphasis> L. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">P. napi</Emphasis> L. (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) in the forest-steppe zone of the Southern Urals

The seasonal variation of forewing size and shape was analyzed in adults of different seasonal generations of two polyvoltine species of whites: Pieris rapae and P. napi (Lepidoptera: Pieridae). Particular morphological features of the forewing are characteristic of each seasonal generation of adults independently of their sex and species. Adults of the spring generations have the smallest wings, elongate and pointed. Adults of the summer generation have the largest, broad and rounded wings over the entire summer season. Adults of the autumn generation have wings similar in shape and size to those of the summer generation, but somewhat smaller and more elongate. Differences between seasonal generations in forewing shape are linked to differences between adults of each generation in adaptation to dispersal.     

Rainfall variability and household coping strategies in northern Tanzania: a motivation for district-level strategies

Climate variability is an important stress factor for rural livelihoods in most developing countries where households have been adapting to environmental shocks for decades. Climate change results in increased variability and poses new challenges for rural livelihoods, as well as for policymakers in adjusting policies to changing conditions. This paper examines the potential relationships between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2,700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. The results show that rainfall patterns in the region are very location-specific and that the distribution of household reported harvest shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support and the selling of assets. There are no large differences in applied coping strategies across the region, but district-level data demonstrate how local strategies differ between localities within the districts. The results emphasize that in order to target rural policies and make them efficient, it is important to take into account the local conditions that rural households face when experiencing climate-related shocks. Finally, shocks reported by households appear to correspond well with observed variability in rainfall patterns.