Estimating willingness to pay with the stochastic payment card design: further evidence from rural Cameroon

This study reports new empirical findings of the field test of the stochastic payment card (SPC) design recently proposed by Wang (Contingent valuation of environmental resources: A stochastic perspective, 1997a; Journal of Environmental Economics & Management 32:219–232, 1997b). The purpose is to see how well this new contingent valuation method (CVM) elicitation format works in different cultural contexts, and what lessons can be drawn in general regarding its usefulness in environmental valuation. The survey is designed to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) values for an intended community-based environmental project in rural Cameroon (i.e., the control of malaria using larvivorous eating fish species). In order to estimate the bid function, Heckman’s 2-step method is used to detect, and if possible, correct for sample selection bias, an issue overlooked by the 2-step modeling approach proposed by Wang (1997a). The results suggest generally that in the presence of sample selection bias, Heckman’s 2-step estimates are more efficient and reliable for the public project in question than Wang’s proposed 2-stage modeling approach.     

A forecast analysis on world population and urbanization process

The continuous growth of world population and the intensification of urbanization process create a challenge to environment quality and sustainable development around the world. In this paper I tried to conduct a forecast analysis of near-future urbanization related population growth worldwide, based on recent demographic trends. Such an analysis can provide important insights into the prospects for changes in the size and composition of world population and in urbanization process. Optimal polynomial functions were used to fit historical trajectories of population dynamics, and the detailed forecasts of the population mainly over the period 2010–2030 were conducted and analyzed. If the past pattern continues, world total population would increase to 7.94–8.33 billion in 2030 and the annual growth is expected to continually decline in the forecast period. Global total population would stop increasing during the period 2050–2060 and would not exceed 9.5 billion in the future. The total population of Africa, Asia, Oceania, South America, North & Central America would separately increase to 1.35–1.41, 4.86–5.65, 0.04–0.05, 0.44–0.45, and 0.71–0.72 billion in 2030. Europe’s total population is forecast to decline to 0.64–0.67 billion in 2030. World’s rural population is expected to grow to the maximum during the period 2015–2020 and would greatly decline after that period. Global rural population would reach 3.12–3.41 billion in 2030. Rural population in Asia and Africa is estimated to increase and achieve the maximum around 2025 and decline thereafter. For other regions, the rural population would continually decline in the forecast period. Urban population in the world would continually grow and reach 4.72–5.00 billion in 2030, an increase of 48.6–57.8%. However the annual growth of urban population is expected to increase to the maximum (6.86 million/year) during the period 2020–2025 and then decline in the following years. Urban population is projected to continually grow in all regions excepting Europe. Europe’s urban population is expected to decline in the period 2010–2030. Urbanization process worldwide, represented by the ratio urban population versus total population (RUT) and the ratio rural population versus urban population, is expected to continue during the period 2010–2030. The RUT of the world is projected to reach 0.5 before 2010 and would continue to increase in the forecast period. Global RUT is estimated to reach 0.56 in 2030. However, the regional patterns of urbanization process would be diverse. Europe’s RUT is estimated to continually decline in the forecast period and reach 0.68 in 2030. The RUT for Africa and Caribbean would continually increase before 2030, while the RUTs for Asia and South America are estimated to achieve their maximums around 2025 and decline in the following years. Oceania and North & Central America would thoroughly realize urbanization (≈1) during the periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030. The expansion of world population and urbanization will continually exert a stronger stress to environment quality and sustainable development in a near future. However we may expect this situation would start to change from mid-21st century after total population has achieved its maximum. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Measuring individuals’ valuation distributions using a stochastic payment card approach: application to solid waste management in Nigeria

The objectives of this study are twofold. First it aims to establish empirical grounds for pricing the services of a new environmental management initiative in Enugu state, Nigeria. A joint initiative of the UK Department for International Development (DfID), Enugu State Environmental Protection Agency (ENSEPA) and the State and Local Government Programme (SLGP). The second is to test the empirical performance of a new approach to the contingent valuation method (CVM) i.e., the Stochastic Payment Card (SPC) design proposed by Wang (Contingent valuation of environmental resources: A stochastic perspective, 1997a, Journal of Environmental Economics & Management, 32:219–232, 1997b). The SPC design unlike many of the conventional CVM elicitation formats, takes into account the stochastic nature of individuals’ valuation decisions. The data for the analysis were obtained from a random sample survey of a district in Enugu metropolis. The results show that, on average, households in this city are willing to pay (WTP) 215 Naira ($1.6) monthly as against 200 Naira ($1.5) currently charged for the service by ENSEPA. Analysis of individual’s valuation distribution function indicates that this amount is positively and significantly related to the gender of the respondent, household income and the respondent’s perception of environmental quality.

Investigating the sensitivity of household food security to agriculture-related shocks and the implication of social and natural capital

This paper examines the impact of agriculture-related shocks on consumption patterns of rural farming households using 3 years of data from South Africa. We make two key observations. First, agriculture-related shocks reduce households’ consumption. Second, natural resources and informal social capital somewhat counteract this reduction and sustain dietary requirements. In general, our findings suggest the promotion of informal social capital and natural resources as they are cheaper and more accessible coping strategies, in comparison to, for example, insurance, which remains unaffordable in most rural parts of sub-Saharan Africa. However, a lingering concern centres on the sustainability of these less conventional adaptation strategies.     

MANAGING POLLUTION FROM SSI<Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">s</Emphasis> – DESIGNING FOR A SUSTAINABLE INSTITUTION

The common effluent treatment plants (CETPs) are being propagated as the policy response to circumvent the pollution problem from the small-scale industries (SSIs), which abound in developing countries. The formation of the CETPs has been hailed as a collective action or co-operative solution to a common problem involving all the agents responsible for pollution. This paper investigated the desired criteria for designing an institution aimed at solving a common resource problem and factors ensuring the smooth functioning or sustainability of the institution. The design criteria and factors are then tested on a CETP set up in the Indian state of Haryana. The CETP, which was commissioned in 1997 had to be converted to a sewage treatment plant (STP) as the collective arrangement collapsed. The criteria used in the present analysis are that of Ostrom’s [Governing the Commons. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 1990] design principles, whereas the factors considered for sustainability are the one suggested by Rawls [A Theory of Justice. USA, Harvard University Press, 1971]. The analysis indicates that the Kundli CETP failed in both counts as neither all the design principles were met nor did the institution fulfil different sustainability criteria. The paper concludes with the lessons that can be learnt from Kundli’s failure. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Moving beyond the linear model of expertise? IPCC and the test of adaptation

In early 2009, few would have expected that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would come under such massive attack. The IPCC had enjoyed a pristine reputation and had even advanced to become a role model for biodiversity and food security assessments (Loreau et al. 2006; Watson 2005). However, public trust and, with it, the organization’s credibility eroded dramatically after November 2009 with the events that became known as ‘climategate’. This article seeks to contribute to current debates about how to reform the IPCC. It argues that there are major flaws in the design of the IPCC which are rooted in the linear model of expertise and which are helping to stoke the backlash against the IPCC. The article analyzes the ways in which the IPCC’s activities conform to the linear model of expertise and considers the consequences of this for integrating adaptation into the IPCC assessments. It explains why adaptation played only a marginal role up until the IPCC Third Assessment Report. It then demonstrates why the use of the linear model of expertise constrains the scientific and political debate about adaptation and leads to proxy debates about scientific evidence, which result in depoliticizing the politics of adaptation and politicizing science. Finally, the article calls for the debate to be opened up to accommodate alternatives that are both politically more feasible and at the same time more appropriate to the specific needs of adaptation policies at different levels of decision-making.     

Challenges posed by climate change: is environmental protection an ethical issue?

Climate is one of the more complex physical systems in nature, its behaviour being fundamentally non-linear and chaotic. In assessing the potential risks from climate change and the costs of averting it, researchers and policymakers encounter pervasive uncertainty. Sceptics demand to get rid of the inherent uncertainties, and some experts, on the other end, keep sending out messages of catastrophic scenarios hoping that this will increase people’s awareness of the danger we face. The recent admission of a mistake in IPCC’s Climate change 2007 report (promptly broadcast by all the major media groups and newspapers from Jan. 20th 2010 onwards) made by the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 (the IPCC claim of 2035 is wrong by over 300 years.)—has already brought a damage to the IPCC’s reputation that is likely to be considerable. But in this paper, perhaps risking being provocative and paradoxical, instead of looking for the right answers to what we think are inevitable uncertainties, we intend to search for new questions that may lead to a new way of thinking and may bring about new lifestyles and behaviour for citizens and firms.     

Understanding vulnerability in southern Africa: comparative findings using a multiple-stressor approach in South Africa and Malawi

Within southern Africa, many households are facing increasing pressures as they deal with multiple challenges such as low employment, high levels of disease, environmental resources under pressure and changing political landscapes. To respond to the needs of different individuals and households, it is important to define the nature of their vulnerability. An increasing amount of theoretical and empirical work on the concept of ‘vulnerability’ has led to a range of definitions, indicators and measurement tools, which have come to characterise this field of study. As a result, there is no one general consensus. This paper presents the results from the latest in a series of applied studies conducted since 2004 by a network of scientists working in southern Africa, aimed at refining the definition and application of the concept of vulnerability. The study employed a recently developed multiple-stressor model to guide the collection and analysis of data from three sites in South Africa and Malawi. In this paper, we identify and explore five key ‘symptoms’ of vulnerability emerging from our multi-country data and reflect on the usefulness of the model employed.     

Climate change vulnerability and resilience: current status and trends for Mexico

Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity toward new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. in Vulnerability to climate change: a quantitative approach. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington DC, 2001; Brenkert and Malone in Clim Change 72:57–102, 2005; Malone and Brenkert in Clim Change 91:451–476, 2008), the Vulnerability–Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity, and environmental capacity. This paper presents two sets of results. First, we show the application of the VRIM to determine state-level resilience for Mexico, building the baseline that reflects the current status. The second part of the paper makes projections of resilience under socioeconomic and climate change and examines the varying sources and consequences of those changes. We used three tools to examine Mexico’s resilience in the face of climate change, i.e., the baseline calculations regarding resilience indices made by the VRIM, the projected short-term rates of socioeconomic change from the Boyd–Ibarrarán computable general equilibrium model, and rates of the IPCC-SRES scenario projections from the integrated assessment MiniCAM model. This allows us to have available change rates for VRIM variables through the end of the twenty-first century.     

An economic theory of reuse

An economic model of reuse is developed to analyse the effect of reuse activity on the amount of waste in the economy and the welfare of consumers. The paper adapts the theory of durable goods and second-hand markets. There is only one type of good, a durable good, which last two periods. A durable good is called ‘new’ in the first period and ‘used’ in the second period. Following Kim (Int Econ J 3:53–63, 1989), it is assumed that consumers differ in valuing the service rate of used goods. Their valuations are represented by a parameter θ, with a higher θ denoting consumers with a greater willingness to pay. In this study, high-θ consumers are referred to as reuse-friendly consumers. The new durable good is supplied in a competitive market. After the purchaser has used the good for one period, (s)he can sell it, keep it or throw it away. If a consumer decides to enter the second-hand market, (s)he has to pay a transaction cost. In equilibrium, the price of used goods will be determined endogenously by a second-hand market; it depends on the value of transaction costs. Thus, whether the second-hand market exists or not also depends on the value of transaction costs. It is shown that the amount of durable goods that is wasted is minimal when a second-hand market exists. When a second-hand market does not exist, increase in reuse-friendly consumers leads to decrease in the amount of waste. In the case of the second-hand market, when many consumers begin to reuse, the welfare of consumers who do not buy used goods will be improved.     

Urban green-cover and the environmental performance of Chennai city

Chennai city the capital of Tamil Nadu is located in southeastern India. Its average population growth rate is 25% per decade, which recurrently alters the city’s land-cover particularly the receding green-cover distressed the city’s self-renewal capacity, in terms of groundwater recharge, pollution sequestration and microclimatic amelioration. This has been appraised by means of a GIS model. This model was developed using three sets of green-cover associated parameters, namely air quality amelioration, hydrological process regulation and microclimatic amelioration. The outcome confirms the difference in the city’s environmental performance between the 1997 and 2001. At some parts of the city, due to the green-cover change, the extent of modification was 38%, in terms of mean percent change in all three sets of parameters mentioned earlier. Through coefficient of correlation (r) method, relationship between green-cover change and environmental performance change are checked. It confirms positive relationship (r = 1) in all parts, except at few places.     

Drought frequency in the Volta Basin of West Africa

According to various reports, climate change is responsible for the change in rainfall amount and pattern accompanied by the various degrees of extreme events in Sahelian West Africa in recent years. Other reports also suggest that there has been a “recovery” of the rainy season (Nicholson 2005). In this study, temporal characteristics of meteorological droughts in the Volta basin, a semi-arid region in West Africa, are investigated in order to provide a guide for sustainable water resource management. For this purpose, drought intensity, areal extent and recurrence frequency is analysed using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) for a time series between 1961 and 2005 from 52 meteorology stations across the Volta basin. Using this analysis the severity of the historical droughts of 1961, 1970, 1983, 1992 and 2001 that occurred in the region are assessed and their intensity, areal extent and return periods are obtained. The drought intensity is lower than −2.0 over nearly 75% of the region, meaning that a major part of the region was under extreme drought conditions during this year. The drought of 1983/1984 has a probability of occurrence of up to 0.1 from records spanning 44 years. The areal extent of extreme drought conditions is about 90% during this drought period.     

Community action for environmental restoration: a case study on collective social capital in India

In southern India, tens of thousands of village-level irrigation systems (‘tanks’ and feeder channels) are in disrepair. This paper analyses the results of a local NGO effort that focused on awareness-raising and advice to bring about self-sustained community action for irrigation system restoration. After designing a model structure that contains both motivational and capacity (social capital) factors, it is found that (pre-existing) collective social capital, as measured through five simple indicators, strongly correlates with success of the NGO strategy. The intensity of the NGO’s effort shows a negative correlation with success, however. The discussion focuses on issues of social capital definition and measurement and the practical implications of the concept for environmental action, especially the difference between using existing social capital for environmental management versus the construction of social capital as a basis for later self-sustained environmental work. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Modeling changes in paddy rice sown areas in Asia

Paddy rice fields in Asia account for over 90% of global total rice cultivation area, and the major rice-producing countries of Asia account for over one-half of the world’s population. Monitoring and understanding the dynamic changes in paddy rice agriculture in Asia are very important for agricultural sustainability, food and water security, and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents a crop choice decision model that dynamically simulates future changes in sown areas of paddy rice in Asia. This model was developed under the framework of Action-in-Context (AiC) with the aim of understanding land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives using a crop utility function. Empirical validation for the model conducted after model construction indicated the reliability of the model for addressing the complexity of current agricultural land-use change and its capacity for investigating long-term scenarios in the future. Finally, the model was applied for future scenario analysis over a time frame of 30 years with 5-year increments, beginning from the year 2005. The simulation results provided insights into rates and trajectories of changes in Asian rice areas over the test period, with the resulting implications for future agricultural sustainability in Asia. These outcomes can improve understanding of projected land-use changes and explain their causes, locations and consequences, as well as providing support for land-use planning and policy making.     

Scenarios of the old industrial regions’ development: selecting the methodology

Management of the old industrial regions’ development is a very actual problem, in particular for the post-Soviet countries. It is connected with the fact that the purposes of manufacture modernization which provide employment and incomes of the population of such regions, can contradict requirements of environmental protection. Here the most different scenarios of development are possible which need to be evaluated. Usual neoclassical criteria for this purpose do not match. Therefore, in our paper, there was a task to develop such criterion which can be used for regulation of the old industrial regions’ development taking into account the environmental factor. The paper begins with construction of regional economy model. Our model based on the J. Forrester's “world model” idea, i.e. it considers the influence of environmental pollution (atmosphere, water, earth) on the population disease level, and then—on the lifetime and the human capital; the latter ones are considered as one of the most important factors of the economic growth. On the ground of this model, the consequences for realization of different scenarios of the regional economy development are estimated. To substantiate the regulation of regional economy, the criterion of sustainable development, based on the idea of simultaneous improvement of economic and ecological parameters, is offered. The main feature of the criterion offered is that, first of all, it guarantees simultaneous improvement of each of the chosen indicators of the region’s development, and, second, allows considering interests of various coalition groups by finding realistic compromises at a choice of ways of old industrial regions’ development.     

The earth system: regional–global linkages

Understanding the earth system requires that the two-way linkages between regions and the global system be well understood and predictable. Most studies of global change are undertaken thematically across limited disciplinary boundaries; few are attempted holistically across many disciplines within regions. The regional approach offers many advantages. Here a variety of linkages associated with the regions of Southern Africa, South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia are presented to illustrate the power of a regional approach to earth system science. Major findings include the extent to which long-range transport of aerosols and nutrients affect terrestrial and marine ecosystem functioning in and around southern Africa. Aerosol transport, and the development of a regional haze layer, over South Asia are shown to alter significantly the radiative forcing of change in the atmosphere over the region. Changes in land cover and use over East Asia over along period of time are shown to have affected the strength of the monsoon circulation significantly. Finally, rampant economic development and globalization in Southeast Asia are demonstrated to have been a significant driver of regional change. Electronic Publication     

Water, Workfare and Poverty: The Impact of the Working for Water Programme on Rural Poverty Reduction

In 1995, the government of the Republic of South Africa launched the Working for Water (WfW) programme that links environmental and developmental goals through the removal of high water-consuming alien plants with pro-poor rural employment opportunities. Whilst bio-physical evaluations have widely reported on the hydrological, ecological and conservation components of the programme, there exists growing uncertainty over the programme’s role as a poverty reduction mechanism. This paper evaluates three projects in the Luvuvhu catchment, Limpopo Province, against five socio-economic workfare criteria and the underlying biophysical rationale. Results show that asset creation from incremental streamflow is economically efficient and is likely to improve significantly if biodiversity benefits, community harvesting of riparian goods and services, ecological non-use values and seasonal water demand values are incorporated into the analysis. However, socio-economic benefits are more questionable: poverty targeting is weak with wage rates failing to self-select the poor; a minor proportion (0.5%) of catchment households benefit from the highly-valued employment opportunities; high variability in monthly employment causes financial difficulties for labourers; labourers are not ‘empowered’ as is evidenced by the failure of the 2-year exit strategy; and programme efficiency is high in proportional allocation of cash-flow to non-management wage labour. It is concluded that the Working for Programme is a potentially replicable model in other semi-arid contexts in developing countries if based on its core biophysical remit but is a transitory and limited poverty reduction mechanism for improving rural livelihoods.     

Modeling of food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of Bangladesh

This paper presents the present status of food security and ecological footprint, an indicator of environmental sustainability of the coastal zones of Bangladesh. To estimate the present status of the food security and ecological footprint of the coastal zone of Bangladesh, primary and secondary data were collected, and the present status of food security and environmental degradation (in terms of ecological footprint) were calculated. To estimate the household food security, primary data were also collected from all the households in a representative selected village. A quantitative method for computation of food security in grain equivalent based on economic returns (price) is developed, and a method of measuring sustainable development in terms of ecological footprint developed by Wackernagel is used to estimate the environmental sustainability (Wackernagel and Rees in Our ecological footprint: reducing human impact on the earth. New Society, Gabrioala, BC, 1996; Chambers et al. in Sharing nature’s interest-ecological footprint as an indicator of sustainability. Earthscan, London, 2000). Overall status of food security at upazila levels is good for all the upazilas except Shoronkhola, Shyamnager and Morrelgonj, and the best is the Kalapara upazila. But the status of food security at household levels is poor. Environmental status in the coastal zones is poor for all the upazilas except Kalapara and Galachipa. The worst is in the Mongla upazila. Environmental status has degraded mainly due to shrimp culture. This study suggests that control measures are needed for affected upazilas and any further expansion of the shrimp aquaculture to enhance the food security must take into account the environmental aspects of the locality under consideration.     

Sustainable investment funds and the government: a comparative study on public policies in the Netherlands and Belgium

With the growing awareness of sustainable development, some European governments have implemented public policy with respect to sustainable investment funds aimed at individual investors. In this article, the public policies of two European central governments are compared: the Dutch Groenregeling and the Belgian Kringloopfonds. On the basis of intervention theory and Hanbergen’s evaluation framework (2001), we claim that public policy can impact upon the sustainable investment market, but that the outcomes of the public policy depend on how that policy is designed. Governments are likely to have a choice between a private and a public approach, in which private and public sustainable investment funds, respectively, play a key role. It is argued that a private approach, owing to the absence of uncertainty, in comparison to a public approach and the presence of a higher intermediation rate for sustainable investment funds, attracts more investors, leads to more sustainable investment funds being established as well as to more assets under management and sustainable projects being financed.     

Integrating the social and natural sciences in environmental research: a discussion paper

This paper considers the practical and intellectual challenges that attend efforts to integrate the social and natural sciences in environmental research, and the broader political, social and economic context in which this takes place. Based on the experiences of researchers in Australia—but with obvious relevance for researchers in many countries—it is the outcome of an interdisciplinary workshop which brought together social and natural scientists involved in environmental management. This event and the wider discussions that followed were initiated to enable researchers to exchange ideas about the obstacles to interdisciplinary collaboration, and to discuss ways to overcome these. The paper provides a summary of the issues and proposes some guidelines for interdisciplinary collaboration. These may be summarised as follows: