全球绿色低碳发展与公平的国际制度建设

在可持续发展和扶贫框架下发展绿色经济与国际可持续发展制度建设及改革是当前世界可持续发展的核心和关键,也是"里约+20"峰会的两个主题。首先,绿色经济是体现经济社会与资源环境相协调和可持续发展的根本途径。绿色经济的核心是以低的自然资源消费、低排放、低污染,达到高的自然资源利用效益,实现高的经济社会发展水平,提供高的生活水平和优良的生活环境。全球绿色经济的发展潮流,将引发社会形态由"工业文明"向"生态文明"转变。虽然经济发展和消除贫困是发展中国家当前首要和压倒一切的优先任务,但也必须探索新型的绿色低碳工业化和现代化道路,在实现工业文明的过程中,努力建设生态文明,实现跨越式发展。同时积极应对全球绿色低碳转型中新的经济、贸易、技术竞争规则和格局的变动,加强先进技术创新,提升自身的低碳竞争力。其次,公平获取可持续发展的理念,应成为国际可持续发展制度建设和改革的基本原则。可持续发展要求既要促进经济社会发展与资源环境相协调,促进"代际公平",又要关注欠发达地区消除贫困,提高生活质量,改善生态环境,实现"国别公平"、"人际公平"。因此,国际可持续发展制度框架的建设和改革,要体现世界各国公平获取可持续发展的理念和原则,全面均衡地反映不同国情和发展阶段国家的利益诉求。主要表现在公平享有全球环境空间、公平获得现代优质能源服务、公平适应全球环境变化、公平承担责任义务及公平的国际制度和机制。中国需要统筹国内外两个大局,走中国特色的绿色低碳发展之路。最后,中国的国情和发展阶段特征,在可持续发展领域又面临比发达国家更多的困难和更严峻的挑战。在全球发展绿色经济,努力实现可持续发展的大背景下,中国要统筹国际国内两个大局,协调推进。在国际上积极参与国际制度的建设和改革,在促进全球经济发展,社会进步和环境保护等方面发挥积极的建设性的作用。在国内加强可持续发展战略的实施,走绿色、低碳和可持续发展的路径。主要战略对策包括加速转变发展方式,强化节能优先,控制能源消费总量和CO2排放总量的过快增长;加强能源结构的低碳化,逐步建立并形成以新能源和可再生能源为主体的可持续能源体系;加强城乡统筹,地区平衡,促进生态城市建设;适应国际可持续发展制度改革的趋势,加强绿色低碳和可持续发展的制度建设;抓住机遇,顺应世界绿色低碳发展潮流,自主实现发展方式的转变,把传统的资源依赖型、粗放扩张的发展方式转变到新型的技术创新型、内涵提高的发展方式上来,基本走上绿色低碳和可持续发展的轨道。     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

应对气候变化需以生态文明理念构建全球技术合作体系

气候变化是人类发展过程中遇到的最大全球性环境问题,也是最大的外部性问题。IPCC报告显示,实现本世纪末温度升高不超过2度的目标,需要全球经济和能源系统深度的低碳转型,并在本世纪下半叶达到温室气体的净零排放。应对气候变化因此面临着前所未有的技术创新与合作需求。2015年底达成的《巴黎协定》提出了落实技术开发与转让的长期愿景,主张对气候变化领域的技术创新给予政策和资金支持,使发展中国家在技术周期的早期阶段就能够获取必要的技术,从而为实现全球应对气候变化提供保障。然而,基于工业文明的传统技术创新与合作模式难以满足保护全球气候的技术需求。减缓与适应技术是气候变化挑战下全球命运共同体的公共财富。为保证其足够的供应,必须超越追求私人利益最大化的狭隘,基于生态文明理念构建全球应对气候变化的新型技术合作体系。其核心是:实现多赢的合作目标,遵循"生态人"的合作原则,体现协同的合作内容,基于互信的合作形式,鼓励多元主体的参与,促进合作成果的分享。中国作为新兴发展中大国,对应对气候变化技术国际合作有多元的利益需求。为有效落实《巴黎协定》,亟需以加速国际合作为契机,积极谋划中国应对气候变化技术对外合作的总体方略和具体行动,有针对性地制定与发达国家、其他发展中国家及欠发达国家间优势互补的合作计划,探索并引导"南-北-南"三方技术合作等新形式。     

Energy revolution:for a sustainable future

The discovery and use of fossil fuels have not only helped the evolution of human society from agricultural civilization to industrial civilization,but also caused serious environmental and climate problems.The earth is calling for a sustainable future,and a change from industrial civilization to ecological civilization based on the new"energy revolution".A macroscopic quantitative analysis of China’s environmental capacity and climate capacity shows that China is in urgent need of changing the extensive developing mode and having an energy revolution.It is foreseeable that fossil fuels will remain the most consumed source of energies in China now and in the next few decades.Although the efficient and clean use of fossil fuels are very important,this is not an energy revolution or the fundamental solution to environmental and climate problems.Unconventional gases including shale gas play an important role in the mitigation of environmental problems and climate change,but"shale gas revolution"or"shale gas era"is not suitable to China since the proportion of natural gas in primary energy structure in China can only be increased by a maximum of 20%.The transition of Chinese energy structure from fossil-fuels-dominating stage to multiple-energy-sources stage and then to a nonfossil-fuels-dominating stage is the inevitable future,with the help of great contribution from renewable energy and nuclear energy.Among renewable energies,the proportion of non-hydro renewable energies will gradually increase.Improvement of their market competitiveness(economic efficiency)relies on technological innovation.Renewable energies will be the main energy source for the earth in future.Despite the impact of the Fukushima nuclear disaster,the whole world,including China,will not give up nuclear energy development.Safe,steady,and large-scale development of nuclear power is a rational choice of China.Transition from nuclear fission power plant to nuclear fusion power plant is the inevitable future.Nuclear energy will be a sustainable energy source and another main energy source of the earth in future.China needs to enhance energy security consciousness,promote energy saving,and change the energy supply-demand patterns,that is the transition from"meet a too-fast-growing demand with an extensive supply"to"meet a reasonable demand with a rational supply".All countries need to work together to address global environmental problems and climate change.Energy revolution is the foundation for a sustainable future.With a wide range of international cooperation,the win-win cooperation is the only way of overcoming these challenges.     

Geopolitics of global climate change and energy security

Currently,the problem of climate change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China’s industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate change is also China’s internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate change on national competitiveness,climate change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China’s energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.     

构建人类命运共同体、应对气候变化与生态文明建设

全球气候变化给人类社会文明带来严峻挑战,需要人类社会采取共同措施和行动积极应对。应对全球气候变化是当今世界最能体现人类共同命运的领域,深度参与并积极推动全球气候治理体系改革和建设是中国推动构建人类命运共同体的重要实践,也是生态文明理论和实践的重要方面。应对气候变化是我国生态文明建设的重要内容和内在要求;以共同价值理念构建人类命运共同体,凝聚各国力量携手合作应对全球气候变化,是全球生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体的具体实践,也为应对全球气候变化提供了良好载体和国际平台。文章通过分析可知,应对气候变化、生态文明建设与构建人类命运共同体三者之间,呈现出相互促进、和谐共生的"三位一体"特征;人与自然共生的生命共同体是前提条件,人类的任何实践活动都要以自然生态系统为基础和前提;人类命运共同体在整合各国力量方面,为生态文明建设提供了社会基础;生态文明包容各国文明,凝聚价值共识,成为生命共同体和人类命运共同体的价值导向。中国倡导人类命运共同体理念,是全球生态文明和人类命运共同体的积极倡导者、推动者和践行者,既为应对全球气候变化提供了价值基础,也提供了强有力的实践支撑;应对气候变化是全球生态文明建设和人类命运共同体构建的生动实践。因此,加强生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体,为全球应对气候变化提供了理论基础和国际平台,也将为全球可持续发展贡献中国智慧和中国案例。     

Global progress in climate change adaptation policies and its implication for China

This paper reviews the progress in climate change adaptation (CCA) policies both under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and in major regions and countries, including the EU and its major member countries, the influential developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the emerging economies and the least developed countries (LDCs). The progress made in China in CCA policies is also reviewed and compared with that in other countries. Finally, good international practices are proposed for China’s policy development. It is found that adaptation has been given the same priority as mitigation since the twenty-first century with regard to climate change-related actions. The topics related to adaptation in the international climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC have evolved from mechanisms for finance and technology development and transfer exclusively in the early stages to implementation of practical adaptation programs and actions. Since 2006, major developed and developing countries have frequently set forward specific CCA policies or general climate change policies involving adaptation in the form of laws, frameworks, strategies, and plans. The LDCs have also been working on National Adaptation Programmes of Action and subsequent National Adaptation Plans with the support from the financial mechanisms under the UNFCCC. Therefore, globally, it has become a common practice to develop national or regional policies to plan and guide CCA actions. China has established climate change policies involving adaptation at the national, regional, and sectorial levels since 2007. However, these policies have strong limitations in their knowledge base, strategic positioning, contents, and implementation mechanisms, e.g. lack of a sound knowledge base, an international perspective, clear responsibilities for policy implementation, and appropriate monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. It is recommended that China should further strengthen its technical capabilities in climate change projections as well as impact, vulnerability, and risk assessment, and develop methodologies and techniques for the preparation, impact assessment and implementation of CCA policies. Furthermore, future CCA strategies or plans should be developed with an emphasis on China’s vision and strategic position on the world stage.     

Actively Dealing with Climate Change and Striving to Strengthen the Capability of Sustainable Development

Either from the perspective of the finite supply capacity of global resources and energy,or from the perspective of global environment restrictive conditions,developing countries can not repeat the old development road of developed countries,either in view of the international pressure China is currently facing,or in view of China’s own resources endowment and stages of development,we must actively face such a challenge of climate change.We must recognize that the issue of climate change may be a great restraint to the present and future eco-social development,and may also be an important driving force and new opportunity to push forward the transformation of development pattern,to take a new road of industrialization and to realize sustainable development.This demands us,on the one hand,to take the Scientific Outlook of Development as the guide to make efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gases and continuously increase the capability of adapting to climatic change,and set up the overall plan to respond to climate change of our country,and on the other hand,we should unswervingly take the road of sustainable development,save energy,optimize energy structure and strengthen biological protection in slowing and adapting to climate change.     

低碳旅游概念辨识及其实现途径

随着节能减排、应对气候变化等概念的实践和推广,低碳旅游也越来越多的被提及和实践。低碳旅游由于其新,无国际经验可循,在概念、内涵以及实现途径等方面认识还不够深入,甚至形成了一些认识的误区,实践中可能因为认识的偏误,阻碍旅游业的发展,而忽略了"低碳发展"所特有的协同发展与控制温室气体排放的积极意义。本文认为,低碳发展是异于传统旅游业发展模式的一种转型发展方式,具有明确的保护气候环境的目的。同时,旅游业是主张消费和体验的行业,低碳旅游不应该以刻意减少或约束消费和体验为手段来实现,低碳旅游的实现途径是多样的,不仅仅有节能减排,还可以根据不同地区的资源条件,选择以成本最低的方式实现低碳发展。我国正处于经济和旅游业的快速发展期,实践低碳旅游发展必然会面临更多挑战,但尽早实现低碳旅游发展转型,不仅对发展低碳经济、保障气候安全做出贡献,也能为改善生态环境,保障能源安全,实现可持续发展做出贡献。     

Combating climate change calls for a global technological cooperation system built on the concept of ecological civilization

Climate change has been considered as the most paramount global environmental problem and the biggest externality throughout the history of human development. Accordingly, the world is facing unprecedented technological innovation and collaborative demands to deal with climate change. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, a long-term vision of technology development and transfer implementation was proposed, and policy and financial support for technological innovation in the area of climate change was advocated. These terms aim to enable developing countries to acquire the necessary technology in the early stage of the technology cycle to address climate change challenge. However, the traditional technological innovation and cooperation mode based on industrial civilization can hardly meet the technical demands of global climate protection. To ensure the continuous development and deployment of technology in a required scale and pace, a new global technical cooperation system is proposed to develop based on the philosophy of ecological civilization. The core contents of this system are supposed be as follows: to implement all-win cooperation targets, adhering to cooperation principles of Eco-man, adopt cooperation content that reflects synergy, pursue cooperation based on mutual trust, encourage participation of multiple actors, and promote sharing of cooperative outputs.     

Human well-being, the global emissions debt, and climate change commitment

Energy consumption is fundamentally necessary for human well-being. However, although increasing energy consumption provides substantial improvements in well-being for low and intermediate levels of development, incremental increases in consumption fail to provide improvements for “super-developed” countries that exhibit the highest levels of development and energy consumption. The aim of this note is, therefore, to quantitatively explore the global emissions debt and climate change commitment associated with the gap in energy consumption between the energy-saturated super-developed countries and the rest of the world. Adopting Kates’ identity, I calculate that elevating the current populations in the non-super-developed countries to the energy and carbon intensities of the United States is akin to adding the fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions of more than 15 United States to the global annual total, implying cumulative emissions of almost 4000 GT CO₂ from 2010 through 2050. The inevitability of continued emissions beyond 2050 suggests that the transition of non-super-developed countries to a US-like profile between now and 2050 could, by itself, plausibly result in global warming of 3.2 °C above the late-twentieth century baseline, including an extremely high likelihood that global warming would exceed 1.2 °C. Global warming of this magnitude is likely to cause regional climate change that falls well outside of the baseline variations to which much of the world is presently accustomed, meaning that a US-like energy-development pathway carries substantial climate change commitment for both non-super-developed and super-developed countries, independent of future emissions from the super-developed world. However, the assumption that all countries converge on the minimum energy intensity of the super-developed world and a carbon-free energy system between now and 2050 implies cumulative CO₂ emissions of less than 1000 GT CO₂ between 2010 and 2050, along with a less than 40 % probability of exceeding 1.2 °C of additional global warming. It is, therefore, possible that intensive efforts to develop and deploy global-scale capacity for low-carbon energy consumption could simultaneously ensure human well-being and substantially limit the associated climate change commitment.     

Low-carbon society creation and socio-economic structural transition in China

China is facing the problem of climate change, environment protection and energy security. Therefore, China has to create a low-carbon society to address them. The purpose of this paper is to make a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of China’s reality and transition to a low-carbon society. The research indicates that China’s transition to low-carbon society will inevitably meet many difficulties under the relatively backward situation of China’s socio-economic structure and technologies at the current stage. Therefore, China has to take concrete policies and countermeasures to promote its development gradually. In particular, China has to vigorously promote the innovation of low carbon system, technologies, subsidy and tax, financing and investment to lay groundwork for comprehensive development of low-carbon society.     

大城市应对气候变化的可持续发展研究——以上海为例

在全球气候变化背景下,社会城镇规划与自然气候变化之间的关系越发密切,城镇规划体系需要纳入气候变化的影响并考虑适应气候变化的策略。首先以发达国家及世界著名大城市为参考,对美国、德国和日本在应对气候变化的城镇可持续发展规划方面的成功经验和实践措施分别进行了综述和提炼;然后,以上海为例,对照分析了我国大城市在城镇化过程中面临的气候变化挑战及存在的脆弱性,包括城镇发展规划与气候环境的相容性考虑不够、城镇化过程对气候环境的影响缺乏充分论证、城镇基础设施抵御气象灾害的能力较低、气候变化对城镇人体健康的影响未给予高度关注等;最后,指出了我国大城市应对气候变化的城镇可持续发展思路及重点方向,即充分考虑区域气候容量、大力构建生态绿色通风廊道;深入开展城镇功能布局的气候可行性论证和气象灾害风险评估;加强城市气候变化研究和实验,不断更新城市规划设计参数和标准规范;加大对脆弱人群和外来常住人口生命安全和人体健康监测预警;积极完善城镇化适应气候变化的机制等,以期为城镇发展体系的编制和应用提供参考和借鉴。     

The win-win pathway of economic growth and CO2 emission reduction: a case study for China

ABSTRACT

Continuously reducing the CO₂ intensity of GDP is the core strategy for developing countries to realize the dual targets of economic growth and CO₂ emissions reduction. The measures are twofold: one is to strengthen energy saving and decrease energy intensity of GDP and the other is to promote energy structural decarbonization and reduce CO₂ intensity of energy consumption. In order to control global temperature rise no more than 2°C, the decrease in CO₂ intensity of GDP needs surpass 4% before 2030, but it could be merely about 2% based on the current trend. Therefore, all countries ought to speed up the low-carbon transition in energy and economy. As for China, keeping a continuous decline in CO₂ intensity of GDP of 4%–5% will ensure the realization of the NDC objectives, and also promotes the early peaking of CO₂ emissions before 2030. China will play a positive leading role in realizing a win-win low-carbon development coordinating sustainable development and climate change mitigation.     

China’s climate socialization and renewable energy coalition building

ABSTRACT

Against the backdrop of a heavy carbon lock-in energy structure, China has made considerable progress in renewable energy (RE) development and become a world leader in this area within a decade. Although existing research suggests that rapid RE growth is mainly due to the convergence of economic growth, green industry competition, and energy security concerns under a unique state-led model, they oversimplify the difficulty inherent in RE policy shifting supported by formerly weak pro-RE actors in China’s historical trajectory of a low-carbon transition. By exploring the interaction between international and domestic actors by means of a socialization-based coalition-building framework, this paper aims at analyzing how the capacity building of the RE coalition gets enhanced via institutional anchoring and resource reallocation in the climate socialization process and how the strengthened RE coalition has spurred transformation in China’s RE policy and the challenges they are confronted with.     

Low-carbon technology innovation responding to climate change from the perspective of spatial spillover effects

China’s technological efforts to tackle climate change have lasted for many years. It is necessary to test the effect of these efforts with quantitative method. To be exact, whether and how China’s low-carbon technology innovation responds to climate change should be tested. Based on the 2004–2015 panel data of 30 provinces in China, we use the method of ESDA analyzing the spatial correlation of China’s low-carbon innovation technology. Furthermore, we use the spatial Durbin model empirically analyzing the spatial spillover effects. The results obtained are as follows: first, supply and demand of Chinese low-carbon innovation has some deviation in the spatial distribution. The low-carbon technology innovation as the supply factor shows the characteristics of expanding from the east to the west. Innovation in eastern China has always been the most active, but innovative activities in the middle and western China are gradually decreased. However, carbon emissions have the characteristics of moving westward, implying the change of technology demand different from technology supply. Second, China’s low-carbon innovation actively responds to the trend of climate change, indicating China’s technological efforts have paid off. However, the spatial spillover effects are not significant, showing that the efforts in each region of China still work for himself. Third, environmental regulation and market pull are important factors for low-carbon technology innovation. Among them, both supporting policy and inhibitory policy have significant impact on the local low-carbon technology innovation, but no significant spatial spillover effects. It shows that environmental policies in different regions are competitive and lack of demonstration effects. Economic growth and export as market pull have higher level of effect on low-carbon technology innovation for both local and adjacent areas. Some policy implications are proposed based on these results finally.     

中国深度脱碳路径及政策分析

《巴黎协定》开启了全球气候治理的新进程,进一步明确了全球应对气候变化的紧迫性和目标要求。对中国来说,如何尽快推动经济增长和碳排放的脱钩,不仅是实现应对气候变化中长期战略目标的核心任务,更是保障经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。为此,本文基于中国经济、社会、能源和重要的终端能源消费行业历史发展趋势的分析,通过"自下而上"的模型方法考察了能源、工业、建筑、交通等行业和领域的深度碳减排潜力,并基于详细的技术分析提出了中国中长期的深度脱碳路径。研究表明,在深度脱碳路径下,中国将顺利完成国家自主贡献提出的2030年左右碳排放达峰和碳强度较2005年下降60%—65%的目标;此后非化石能源发展进一步加速,到2050年非化石能源在一次能源中占比达到44%左右,工业、建筑、交通等终端耗能行业的低碳转型进一步加速,2050年碳排放回落至2005年前水平,碳强度较2005年下降90%以上。为实现深度脱碳,本文从强化碳排放总量约束和相关制度规范建设、完善产业低碳发展激励政策、加强相关市场机制作用、倡导低碳生活和消费等四方面提出了相应的政策建议,以供决策者参考。     

Pathway and policy analysis to China’s deep decarbonization

The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China, promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium- and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change, but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development, as well as society, energy consumption, and key end-use sectors in China, this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy, industry, building, and transportation and other sectors with “bottom-up” modeling analysis and proposes a medium- and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies’ mitigation potentials for China. It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway, China will successfully realize the goals set in China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60–65% from the 2005 level. From 2030 onward, the development of nonfossil energy will further accelerates, and the share of nonfossil energies in primary energy will amounts to about 44% by 2050. Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end-use sectors including industry, building, and transportation, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decreases by more than 90% from the 2005 level. To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives, including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations, improving the incentive policies for industrial low-carbon development, enhancing the role of the market mechanism, and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.     

Remedies for loss and damage caused by climate change from the dimension of climate justice

Adverse consequences to the ecological system and human health caused by impacts potentially attributable to climate change have already drawn great and widespread concern of many scientists and international organizations. However, we still have a hard time determining exactly the impact of climate change on the environment or the damage that climate change inflicts on countries comprising small islands or low-lying lands in light of today’s science and technology. The progress for dealing with the issue of loss and damage has been struggling for a long time from the beginning to the present. In this paper, the author begins by summarizing talks on the concept and the positions of commentators. The author is proposing that the development of future climate negotiations and rule-making process be based on global climate justice as a standard for measuring value. Also, the author proposes that a holistic view of climate justice be established. Generally, three aspects of climate justice can be derived. First, the dimension of human rights protection shows that protection of fundamental human rights is a logical precondition if small-island and low-lying countries are able to achieve climate justice. Second, the definite and traditional concepts of distributive justice and corrective justice hold the view that the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities should be upheld as a basic standard of allocating rights and duties associated with climate change. Third, climate justice requires that any state follow the “no-harm principle,” which is regarded as an international customary rule. According to the principle, the obligation of states to prevent the use of their territory for causing trans-boundary harm to the environment shall be a violation of state responsibility, which incurs international punishment. Then we put forward three remedial approaches in light of climate justice, including the approach of State Responsibility (SR) based on the principles and rules of international human rights law and international environmental law. Based on clear rules, the judge can determine whether the damaging behavior or the damage perpetrated by a state party constitutes a state responsibility. The International Environmental Regulation (IEB), which means solving the problems within the framework established by the Conventions on Climate Change, takes advantage of the market mechanisms and incentives such as fund and insurance support system to relieve or compensate the loss and damage. International Environmental Dispute Settlement Mechanism (IEDSM), which includes the means such as consultations, negotiations, nonmandatory ways and international arbitration, international judicial ways to solve these disputes, functions as a procedural safeguard. As an active promoter of global climate governance, China should no doubt stand by the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR) and take it as a basis for negotiations, actively strengthen the work of South-South cooperation, fulfill her international climate commitments without reservation, vigorously develop a low-carbon economy, and actively promote international negotiations on the subject of loss and damage.     

基于突变级数法的中国低碳经济复杂系统综合评价

低碳经济是人类社会实现可持续发展的内在要求和重要途径，是应对气候变化的必然选择。首先界定了低碳经济SREE复杂系统，该系统由社会、资源、经济和环境4个相互独立又相互联系的子系统构成的复杂巨系统。以此为基础，构建了包括经济系统、资源环境系统和社会系统在内的低碳经济复杂系统综合评价指标体系。考虑到运用突变级数法对指标体系进行评价的需要，指标体系全部由定量指标构成，避免了人为确定定性指标权重的主观性。其次，运用突变级数评价方法对2005～2009年的中国低碳经济复杂系统进行了评价。从评价结果来看，我国低碳经济复杂系统按照波浪型曲线运行，这是国际金融危机和国内经济结构调整双重因素导致的结果，同时也是复杂系统内部子系统相互影响、相互作用的结果。最后，提出了当前中国低碳经济复杂系统可持续发展的相应战略