Ecosystem service provision,management systems and climate change in Valsaín forest,central Spain

This study addresses the impact of climate change and management approach on the provision of four ecosystem services (ES) (timber production, protection against gravitational hazards, carbon sequestration and biodiversity) in Valsaín forest in central Spain. The hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.6 was used to simulate the development of 24 representative stand types over 100 years (2010–2110) in a full factorial simulation experiment combining three management regimes [“business as usual” management (BAU) and two alternatives to BAU (AM1 and AM2)], a no-management scenario (NOM) and six climate scenarios (historic climate represented by the period 1961–1990 and five transient climate change scenarios). Simulations indicated relatively small differences as regards the impact of the different management alternatives (BAU, AM1 and AM2) on the provision of ES as well as a clear improvement in biodiversity, protection and carbon storage under the no-management regime (NOM). Although timber production indicators were the most sensitive to climate change scenarios, biodiversity-related indicators responded fastest to the management regimes applied. Indicators of protection against rockfall and landslides were affected by both management and climate change. The results indicate substantial vulnerability of ES provisioning under the more extreme climate change scenarios at low elevations (1250 m). At higher elevations, the productivity of Scots pine stands may show a moderate decrease or increase, depending on the climate change scenario.     

Sustainable forest management in a mountain region in the Central Western Carpathians,northeastern Slovakia: the role of climate change

European forestry is facing many challenges, including the need to adapt to climate change and an unprecedented increase in forest damage. We investigated these challenges in a Norway spruce-dominated mountain region in Central Europe. We used the model Sibyla to explore forest biomass production to the year 2100 under climate change and under two alternative management systems: the currently applied management (CM), which strives to actively improve the forest’s adaptive capacity, and no management (NM) as a reference. Because biodiversity is thought to have mostly positive effects on the adaptive capacity of forests and on the quality of ecosystem services, we explored how climate change and management affect indicators of biodiversity. We found a differential response across the elevation-climatic gradient, including a drought-induced decrease in biomass production over large areas. With CM, the support of non-spruce species and the projected improvement of their growth increased tree species diversity. The promotion of species with higher survival rates led to a decrease in forest damage relative to both the present conditions and NM. NM preserved the high density of over-matured spruce trees, which caused forest damage to increase. An abundance of dead wood and large standing trees, which can increase biodiversity, increased with NM. Our results suggest that commercial spruce forests, which are not actively adapted to climate change, tend to preserve their monospecific composition at a cost of increased forest damage. The persisting high rates of damage along with the adverse effects of climate change make the prospects of such forests uncertain.     

Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of climate change on a pine forest stand in Central Siberia (Zotino) to assess benefits and risks for such forests in the future. We use the regional statistical climate model STARS to develop a set of climate change scenarios assuming a temperature increase by mid-century of 1, 2, 3 and 4 K. The process-based forest growth model 4C is applied to a 200-year-old pine forest to analyse impacts on carbon and water balance as well as the risk of fire under these climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios indicate precipitation increases mainly during winter and decreases during summer with increasing temperature trend. They cause rising forest productivity up to about 20 % in spite of increasing respiration losses. At the same time, the water-use efficiency increases slightly from 2.0 g C l^?1 H₂O under current climate to 2.1 g C l^?1 H₂O under 4 K scenario indicating that higher water losses from increasing evapotranspiration do not appear to lead to water limitations for the productivity at this site. The simulated actual evaporation increases by up to 32 %, but the climatic water balance decreases by up to 20 % with increasing temperature trend. In contrast, the risk of fire indicated by the Nesterov index clearly increases. Our analysis confirms increasing productivity of the boreal pine stand but also highlights increasing drought stress and risks from abiotic disturbances which could cancel out productivity gains.     

Assessing the vulnerability of rare plants using climate change velocity,habitat connectivity,and dispersal ability: a case study in Alberta,Canada

Climate change generally requires species to migrate northward or to higher elevation to maintain constant climate conditions, but migration requirement and migration capacity of individual species can vary greatly. Individual populations of species occupy different positions in the landscape that determine their required range shift to maintain similar climate, and likewise the migration capacity depends on habitat connectivity. Here, we demonstrate an approach to quantifying species vulnerabilities to climate change for 419 rare vascular plants in Alberta, Canada, based on a multivariate velocity of climate change metric, local habitat fragmentation, and migration capacity. Climate change velocities indicated that future migration requirements ranged from 1 to 5 km/year in topographically complex landscapes, such as the Alberta Foothills and Rocky Mountains. In contrast, migration requirements to maintain constant climate in relatively flat Boreal Plains, Parkland, and Grassland ranged from 4 to 8 km/year. Habitat fragmentation was also highest in these flat regions, particularly the Parkland Natural Region. Of the 419 rare vascular plants assessed, 36 were globally threatened (G1–G3 ranking). Three globally threatened species were ranked as extremely vulnerable and five species as highly vulnerable to the interactions among climate change velocity, habitat fragmentation, and migration capacity. Incorporating dispersal characteristics and habitat fragmentation with local patterns in climate change velocity improves the assessment of climate change threats to species and may be applied to guide monitoring efforts or conservation actions.     

Accurate modeling of harvesting is key for projecting future forest dynamics: a case study in the Slovenian mountains

Maintaining the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services requires to take into consideration forest sensitivity and adaptability to a changing environment. In this context, dynamic models are indispensable to assess the combined effects of management and climate change on forest dynamics. We evaluated the importance of implementing different approaches for simulating forest management in the climate-sensitive gap model ForClim and compared its outputs with forest inventory data at multiple sites across the European Alps. The model was then used to study forest dynamics in representative silver fir–European beech stands in the Dinaric Mountains (Slovenia) under current management and different climate scenarios. On average, ForClim accurately predicted the development of basal area and stem numbers, but the type of harvesting algorithm used and the information for stand initialization are key elements that must be defined carefully. Empirical harvesting functions that rigorously impose the number and size of stems to remove fail to reproduce stand dynamics when growth is just slightly under- or overestimated, and thus should be substituted by analytical thinning algorithms that are based on stochastic distribution functions. Long-term simulations revealed that both management and climate change negatively impact conifer growth and regeneration. Under current climate, most of the simulated stands were dominated by European beech at the end of the simulation (i.e., 2150 AD), due to the decline of silver fir and Norway spruce caused mainly by harvesting. This trend was amplified under climate change as growth of European beech was favored by higher temperatures, in contrast to drought-induced growth reductions in both conifers. This forest development scenario is highly undesired by local managers who aim at preserving conifers with high economic value. Overall, our results suggest that maintaining a considerable share of conifers in these forests may not be feasible under climate change, especially at lower elevations where foresters should consider alternative management strategies.     

Can current management maintain forest landscape multifunctionality in the Eastern Alps in Austria under climate change?

In Central Europe, management of forests for multiple ecosystem services (ES) has a long tradition and is currently drawing much attention due to increasing interest in non-timber services. In face of a changing climate and diverse ES portfolios, a key issue for forest managers is to assess vulnerability of ES provisioning. In a case study catchment of 250 ha in the Eastern Alps, the currently practiced uneven-aged management regime (BAU; business as usual) which is based on irregularly shaped patch cuts along skyline corridors was analysed under historic climate (represented by the period 1961–1990) and five transient climate change scenarios (period 2010–2110) and compared to an unmanaged scenario (NOM). The study addressed (1) the future provisioning of timber, carbon sequestration, protection against gravitational hazards, and nature conservation values under BAU management, (2) the effect of spatial scale (1, 5, 10 ha grain size) in mapping ES indicators and (3) how the spatial scale of ES assessment affects the simultaneous provision of several ES (i.e. multifunctionality). The analysis employed the PICUS forest simulation model in combination with novel landscape assessment tools. In BAU management, timber harvests were smaller than periodic increments. The resulting increase in standing stock benefitted carbon sequestration. In four out of five climate change scenarios, volume increment was increasing. With the exception of the mildest climate change scenario (+2.6 °C, no change in precipitation), all other analysed climate change scenarios reduced standing tree volume, carbon pools and number of large old trees, and increased standing deadwood volume due to an intensifying bark beetle disturbance regime. However, increases in deadwood and patchy canopy openings benefitted bird habitat quality. Under historic climate, the NOM regime showed better performance in all non-timber ES. Under climate change conditions, the damages from bark beetle disturbances increased more in NOM compared with BAU. Despite favourable temperature conditions in climate change scenarios, the share of admixed broadleaved species was not increasing in BAU management, mainly due to the heavy browsing pressure by ungulates. In NOM, it even decreased and mean tree age increased. Thus, in the long run NOM may enter a phase of lower resilience compared with BAU. Most ES indicators were fairly insensitive to the spatial scale of indicator mapping. ES indicators that were based on sparse tree and stand attributes such as rare admixed tree species, large snags and live trees achieved better results when mapped at larger scales. The share of landscape area with simultaneous provisioning of ES at reasonable performance levels (i.e. multifunctionality) decreased with increasing number of considered ES, while it increased with increasing spatial scale of the assessment. In the case study, landscape between 53 and 100 % was classified as multifunctional, depending on number and combinations of ES.     

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

The Mediterranean region of Chile is considered a biodiversity hot spot. An increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, as projected for the end of this century by global circulation models, would likely change the distribution of the sclerophyllous thorny shrubland and woodland. In order to assess those potential impacts, the MAXENT algorithm was used to project potential changes in the distribution of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Ecological niche models were fitted and used to project the potential distribution of these forest ecosystems by the end of the century. Projections were made using data from the PRECIS model for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and two strategies of occupancy: free migration and non-migration. Distribution models of sclerophyllous, woodland and shrubland performed accurately representing current species’ distribution. When we assume non-migration responses under climate change scenarios, results reveal a decrease in the distribution area for all the species. The areas where the highest reduction in a suitable environment was found are located along the coastline, where higher temperature increases have been projected. For native ecosystems from the Andean Range region, such as communities dominated by thorny species, a stable habitat was found, associated with a higher adaptation capability to future climatic projections. Hence, in the future, buffer zones originated by “topo-climatic” conditions might play a key role in protecting Central Chile biodiversity.     

Projecting canopy cover change in Tasmanian eucalypt forests using dynamically downscaled regional climate models

Loss of forest cover is a likely consequence of climate change in many parts of the world. To test the vulnerability of eucalypt forests in Australia’s island state of Tasmania, we modelled tree canopy cover in the period 2070–2099 under a high-emission scenario using the current climate–canopy cover relationship in conjunction with output from a dynamically downscaled regional climate model. The current climate–canopy cover relationship was quantified using Random Forest modelling, and the future climate projections were provided by three dynamically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Three GCMs were used to show a range of projections for the selected scenario. We also explored the sensitivity of key endemic and non-endemic Tasmanian eucalypts to climate change. All GCMs suggested that canopy cover should remain stable (proportional cover change <10 %) across ~70 % of the Tasmanian eucalypt forests. However, there were geographic areas where all models projected a decline in canopy cover due to increased summer temperatures and lower precipitation, and in addition, all models projected an increase in canopy cover in the coldest part of the state. The model projections differed substantially for other areas. Tasmanian endemic species appear vulnerable to climate change, but species that also occur on the mainland are likely to be less affected. Given these changes, restoration and carbon sequestration plantings must consider the species and provenances most suitable for future, rather than present, climates.     

Effects of climate change on species distribution, community structure, and conservation of birds in protected areas in Colombia

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in species distributions worldwide, threatening their viability due to range reductions and altering their representation in protected areas. Biodiversity hotspots might be particularly vulnerable to climate change because they hold large numbers of species with small ranges which could contract even further as species track their optimal habitat. In this study, we assessed the extent to which climate change could cause distribution shifts in threatened and range-restricted birds in Colombia, a megadiverse region that includes the Tropical Andes and Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena hotspots. To evaluate how climate change might influence species in this region, we developed species distribution models using MAXENT. Species are projected to lose on average between 33 and 43 % of their total range under future climate, and up to 18 species may lose their climatically suitable range completely. Species whose suitable climate is projected to disappear occur in mountainous regions, particularly isolated ranges such as the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. Depending on the representation target considered, between 46 and 96 % of the species evaluated may be adequately represented in protected areas. In the future, the fraction of species potentially adequately represented is projected to decline to 30–95 %. Additional protected areas may help to retain representativeness of protected areas, but monitoring of species projected to have the largest potential declines in range size will be necessary to assess the need of implementing active management strategies to counteract the effects of climate change.     

Landscape diversity and associated coping strategies during food shortage periods: evidence from the Sudano-Sahelian region of Burkina Faso

The importance of forest resources for rural communities’ livelihoods has increasingly been recognized over the last three decades. Forests provide food, generate incomes, provide supporting (nutrient cycling, pollination), and regulating (climate, diseases, water regulation and purification) services for agriculture, in addition to their aesthetic, cultural and spiritual role. However, most of the studies on forest resource use do not focus on the role of landscape organization in addressing the impact of climate variability and the risk of food insecurity. This study aims to examine the contribution of woodlands and trees towards decreasing the risk of food insecurity and the importance of landscape structure and composition in coping with food shortages. It took place in two villages in Burkina Faso, on both ends of the woodlands and tree-cover spectrum. We demonstrate that in both landscapes, ecosystem goods, such as shea nuts and fuelwood, represent a safety net for households during food shortage periods. We demonstrate that households shape their adaptive strategies differently depending on the resources available and the structure of the landscape. People living in a landscape with a savannah matrix (Sorobouly) rely on fuelwood trade to purchase cereals, while those living in a landscape with a parkland matrix (Kalembouly) rely on shea nuts. Agricultural, environmental and climate change policies that reinforce the rights of the most vulnerable to access key resources provided by these landscapes and development programs which assure their sustainable use will simultaneously enhance food security and increase their adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and variability.

     

Avian species distribution in different elevation zone forest (Sal, Pine Mixed And Oak) in nainital district of uttarakhand, India

The present study were made to estimate the avian fauna in terms of species richness and diversity and guild structure in forest habitats of Nainital district of Uttarakhand (350–2.450 m asl; 29° N). Field studies were conducted during January 2007 to December 2008. Total 43, 62 and 42 species were recorded from, Haldwani, Bhowali and Nainital forest habitats. Results indicate the species relationship between Bird species richness (BSR) and elevation sections (forest habitats) was not decline simultaneously along elevation; it shows hump shaped. BSR varied considerably along elevational gradient (43 to 62 species), was highest (62 species) at mid elevation (Mixed pine forest, 1.350–1.700 m asl) and decreased (20 species) at high elevation (Conifer forest, 1900–2450 m asl). It seems that mid altitude bulge is not caused by the presence of a group of mid altitude specialists but rather that there is an overlap in the distribution of low land and high elevation specialists at this altitude. A checklist of 79 avian species has also produced of Nainital district forest habitats. It is suggested that this study provide a base line structure for further study on species distribution in different forest habitats and along different elevation section in Western Himalayas (India).     

A study of the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Pinus koraiensis in China.

The climatic conditions and elevation of the potential distribution area of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis Sieb. et Zucc) in China were determined by an ecological information system GREEN that has been developed by [Yan H, Booth TH, Zuo H, editors. GREEN--a climatic mapping program for China and its use in forestry. In: Matching trees and sites, ACIAR Proceedings No. 63. Australia: ACIAR, 1996]. The potential distribution areas of this tree species under current and predicted climatic conditions were mapped using IDRISI GIS. Based on the averages of rainfall and temperature predicted by 5 GCMs (GISS, NCAR, OSU, UKMO and MPI, i.e., an "averaged" model) and a new model HadCM2 for 2030, predictions were made on the future distributions of Korean pine. The result shows that the southern boundary of the potential distribution area of Korean pine will have a northward shift of 0.1 degrees to 0.6 degrees in latitude, and the northern boundary will have a northward shift of 0.3 degrees to 0.5 degrees, resulting in an expansion of the potential distribution area by 3.4% according to the average of the five models. However, the distribution areas will be decreased by 12.1% and 44.9% according to the scenarios predicted by HadCM2, which assumes annual increments of CO2 concentrations of 0.5% and 1%, respectively. The authors concluded that if the thresholds were properly selected the actual distribution and potential distribution of a tree species might agree. The projected distribution under changed climatic conditions depends on the GCM scenarios applied. Different GCM scenarios may sometimes give opposite conclusions, as in the case of Korean pine projected by the "averaged" and HadCM2 models.     

The hypothesis of hydrochorous dissemination of populations of conifers

A comparative analysis of field observations and experiments on the distance and rate of dispersal of self-sown Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) progeny has shown that the rate of their hydrochorous dissemination downstream is an order of magnitude higher than the rate of dispersal in upland areas. A hypothesis assigning priority to the role of hydrochory in the expansion of conifer populations to the tundra (periglacial) zone along with climate warming has been formulated and substantiated by comparative isozyme analysis of populations in transects lying along and across rivers.     

Sixty years of habitat decline: impact of land-cover changes in northern Italy on the decreasing ortolan bunting <Emphasis Type="Italic">Emberiza hortulana</Emphasis>

Habitat loss and degradation are main global threats to biodiversity, and land-use changes in agriculture-dominated landscapes are crucial for an important portion of biodiversity, especially in Europe. We evaluated the effects of land-use changes (1954–2012) on a threatened species, the ortolan bunting, in an agricultural area crucial for its conservation in Italy. We built a distribution model for ortolan bunting in current landscapes and then re-projected it to past scenarios (1954 and 1999–2000). We evaluated the most important land-use changes occurred and estimated their effects on habitat suitability. Bunting occurrence was mostly affected by the extent of grassland (positively; used as foraging/breeding ground), shrubland (quadratic effect; perches/shelter), forest and urbanized land (negatively), and by solar radiation (positively) and slope (quadratic), consistent with other studies carried out especially in southern Europe. The potential distribution of the species was much larger in the past: the estimated decline in suitable habitat is 44–72 % (since 1999–2000/1954), coherent with historical data suggesting strong decline and contraction. Changes in suitability (1954–2012) were mostly associated with changes in the cover of forest, vineyards and abandoned areas (negatively), and shrubland (positively). Land-use/land-cover changes are the main drivers of species occurrence and of habitat decline. The heterogeneous landscape of hilly/low-mountain sites in this area, characterized by a mix of habitats offering complementary resources to ortolan buntings and other species of conservation concern, is currently threatened by abandonment and intensification, but its maintenance may be promoted by a correct definition of Rural Development Programme measures.     

Effects of environmental factors on the seasonal growth of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea abies</Emphasis> L. (Karst.) in northern Karelia

The seasonal growth of shoots, needles, and the trunk in the Norway spruce has been studied in a bilberry spruce forest in the middle taiga subzone of Karelia. The results show that the growth of vegetative organs in this tree species depends mainly on the air temperature regime, whereas the effect of variations in factors such as the period of sunshine, precipitation, and air humidity is relatively weak.     

The Holocene dynamics of vegetation and climatic conditions on the eastern slope of the Subpolar Urals

Changes in the vegetation and climatic conditions on the eastern slope of the Subpolar Urals over the past 10000 years have been reconstructed on the basis of integrated palynological, botanical, and radiocarbon analysis of material from two sections of peat deposits in the floodplains of the Lyapin and Man’ya rivers (the Severnaya Sos’va basin). The dynamics of regional vegetation have been traced: from the herb–shrub tundra in the late postglacial time to the spruce–larch forest–tundra and sparse larch–birch–spruce stands in the Early Holocene, to birch–pine–spruce forests with an admixture of fir in the Middle Holocene, and to northern taiga forests with dominance of Scots pine and Siberian stone pine (similar to present-day forests) in the Late Holocene. The results show that the northern taiga zone of the study region in the period between approximately 5500 and 2500 years BP was occupied by forests of middle and southern taiga facies, as the climate was significantly warmer than it is today.     

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at ~1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species’ current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past (1950–2000) and future climates (2041–2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of ~54 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of ~13 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.     

Mapping fire behaviour under changing climate in a Mediterranean landscape in Greece

Understanding how future climate periods influence fire behaviour is important for organizing fire suppression strategy and management. The meteorological factors are the most critical parameters affecting fire behaviour in natural landscapes; hence, predicting climate change effects on fire behaviour could be an option for optimizing firefighting resource management. In this study, we assessed climate change impacts on fire behaviour parameters (rate of fire growth, rate of spread and fireline intensity) for a typical Mediterranean landscape of Greece. We applied the minimum travel time fire simulation algorithm by using the FlamMap software to characterize potential response of fire behaviour for three summer periods. The results consisted of simulated spatially explicit fire behaviour parameters of the present climate (2000) and three future summer periods of 2050, 2070 and 2100, under the A1B emissions scenario. Statistical significant differences in simulation outputs among the four examined periods were obtained by using the Tukey’s significance test. Statistical significant differences were mainly obtained for 2100 compared to the present climate due to the significant projected increase in the wind speed by the end of the century. The analysis and the conclusions of the study can be important inputs for fire suppression strategy and fire management (deployment of fire suppression resources, firefighter safety and exposure, transportation logistics) quantifying the effect that the expected future climate periods can have on fire suppression difficulty in Mediterranean landscapes.     

Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes

Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.     

Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece

Greece is included among the most vulnerable regions of Europe by climate change on account of higher temperature and reduced rainfall in areas already facing water scarcity. With respect to wetland systems, many ephemeral ones are expected to disappear and several permanent to shrink due to climate change. As regards two specific wetlands of Greece, the change in hydroperiod of Cheimaditida and Kerkini lakes due to climate change was studied. Lakes’ water balance was simulated using historical climate data and the emission scenarios Α1Β for the period 2020–2050 and Α1Β and Α2 for the period 2070–2100. Future climate scenarios, based on emission scenarios A1B and A2, were provided in the context of the study of Climate Change Impacts Study Committee. The surface area of Lake Cheimaditida will undergo a substantial decrease, initially by 20 % during the period 2020–2050 and later until 37 % during the period 2070–2100. In Lake Kerkini, the surface area will decrease, initially by 5 % during the period 2020–2050 and later until 14 % during the period 2070–2100. Climate change is anticipated to impact the hydroperiod of the two wetlands, and the sustainable water management is essential to prevent the wetland’s biodiversity loss.