我国减缓碳排放的近期形势与远期趋势分析

近3年来我国面临GDP能源强度呈上升趋势，能源消费及相应CO2排放增长对世界减缓碳排放的形势产生了更大影响的新的形势，从长远发展趋势看，我国当前由于工业特别是重化工业在国民经济结构中急剧增加引起的GDP能源强度阶跃性增长将随产业结构的稳定两平缓，并且随产业结构的优化和产业技术升级及高附加值产品比例提高而再度呈持续稳定下降的趋势。我国在现代化道路中与发达国家的历程相比，可以走更为节约能源和减少CO2排放的道路。但由于中国人口众多，和平发展的规模大、速度快，而且时间比发达国家滞后半个世纪以上，我国为实现现代化所必需的能源消费和CO2排放的增长会对全球的碳排放增长产生重大影响。这将使我国未来经济发展面临极为不利的外部环境。     

Physiological Rearrangements in the Progeny of White Rats in the Zone of the Chernobyl Accident

Studies on six generations of white rats kept at the experimental station in Chernobyl showed that the dynamics of hormonal rearrangements and endocrine responses evoked by additional stress (hypokinesia) were generation- and sex-dependent. The male rats of the first five generations were characterized by hypercorticoidism, early involutional shifts, and decreased reactivity in response to hypokinesia. By the sixth and seventh generations, the hormonal profiles shifted toward an increase in the background level of sex hormones and their role in the response to hypokinesia. In female rats, the hormonal indices and reactivity changed less significantly.     

Radionuclides in the Ecosystem of Lake Tygish in the Zone of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace

The radioecological situation in Lake Tygish is described. The lake is situated on the central axis of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT), which was formed after the nuclear accident in the Southern Urals in 1957. The distributions of ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs among the main components of the water body and the results of the measurement of tritium concentration in the water are presented. Mathematical models are described that have made it possible to estimate changes in the concentrations of radionuclides and their amounts accumulated in the water and bottom sediments of the lake during the long period after the accident and to predict the development of the radioecological situation in the lake until 2057. Based on the mathematical models, more accurate data on the initial ecological situation in the lake in the year of the accident have been obtained.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Ecological Variation in the Morphological Structure of the Crown in Siberian Stone Pine at the Timberline

The structure of the crown and branching; the growth, development, and ontogeny of branches; and organogenesis and growth of female shoots in the model Siberian stone pine trees were studied in four types of habitats at the timberline in the central Altai Mountains (1700–2170 m a.s.l.). The results provided evidence that the ecological forms of trees appear due to changes in the pattern of branching as well as to the decreased rate of vegetative (primarily apical) growth. The diameter of the shoot pith is one of the most variable characters reflecting the deterioration of environmental conditions at higher elevations.     

Changes in the salinity of the Euphrates River system in Iraq

The water salinity of the Euphrates River as it enters Iraq, expressed as total dissolved solids (TDS), has more than doubled compared to that of 1973. Downstream of Al Hindia Barrage, south of Baghdad, the salinity has increased gradually over the last 30 years. The annual average TDS at Al Nassiriah, in the lower reaches of the Euphrates, has increased from 1,080 ppm in 1979 to more than 4,500 ppm in 2001. Water quality of the Euphrates within Iraq has deteriorated due to the decreased flow that is entering Iraq, diverted flows to the river from Al Tharthar Lake, and irrigation-return flow. The decreased flow from upstream sources was due to reservoir construction projects. Water from Al Tharthar Lake and from irrigation return flow is being diverted to the Euphrates to compensate for the upstream deficit. An environmental flow rate of 178 m³/s (annual minimum flow, 5.6 bcm or about one-third of historic minimum flow) is proposed as the minimum discharge that must be flowing into Iraq to preserve the environment of the Euphrates River in Iraq. A flow of twice this amount would allow more reasonable downstream management with an input average salinity of 760 ppm.     

Biogeochemical signatures in the lichen Hypogymnia physodes in the mid Urals

Multi-element content and uranium (U) isotopes were investigated in the lichen Hypogymnia physodes (native and transplants) sampled across a 60-km transect, centred on Karabash smelter town, from Turgoyak Lake (SW) to Kyshtym (NE) to investigate the origin of U. Kyshtym was the site of a major nuclear accident in 1957. (234)U/(238)U activity ratios in native thalli sampled during July 2001 were within the natural isotopic ratio in minerals. Uranium/thorium (U/Th) ratios were higher in native thalli towards the NE (average 0.73) than those in the SW (average 0.57). Element signatures in native thalli and transplants suggest U was derived from fossil fuel combustion from Karabash and sources lying further to the east. Systematic and significant U enrichment indicative of a nuclear fuel cycle source was not detected in any sample. Element signatures in epiphytic lichen transplants and native thalli provide a powerful method to evaluate U deposition.     

Radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems of the zone of Kyshtym accident in the Urals

It was shown that along the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace central axis, about 100 km in length, decrease of the ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs deposition densities in soil samples may be described as an exponential function. At the western and eastern periphery of the trace, ⁹⁰Sr contents in soils approached to the background level due to global fallout. ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in seeds of some herbaceous plants have been determined. The radionuclide concentrations and the resulting dose loads upon plant seeds showed an excess over the background level of about two or three orders of magnitude.     

Vegetation-permafrost relationships in the zone of sporadic permafrost distribution in the Kamchatka Peninsula

Studies on vegetation and permafrost table depth in the zone of sporadic permafrost distribution in the Uksichan River valley (the central Kamchatka Peninsula) have provided evidence that these components of biogeocenosis are interrelated and develop coordinately. In open larch forests with green forest mosses dominating in the ground vegetation layer, the permafrost table lies approximately 60 cm below the soil surface. When the ground vegetation layer is dominated by sphagnums, the permafrost table rises to 40–20 cm. In areas with a dwarf shrub-lichen ground layer, the soil thaw depth increases. A hypothesis is proposed that cyclic successional replacement of plant communities may take place in open larch forests on permafrost soils, including four consecutive stages with dominance of green mosses, sphagnums, lichens, and dwarf shrubs. In areas disturbed by fires, pioneer moss or herbaceous communities develop in the ground layer.     

Estimating the Carbon Pool in the Phytomass of Larch Forests in Northern Eurasia

A data bank on larch phytomass was compiled on the basis of 60 publications describing the data obtained on 360 plots distributed over the area extending from England to Japan. These data were used for calculating conversion factors, i.e., the ratios of carbon pools in trunks, roots, skeletal branches, foliage, and understory (metric tons per hectare) to standing crop (m³/ha). The systems of recursive equations for estimating both volume-forming indices and conversion factors and combined into a second-level recursion system were calculated for 21 regions and forest formations of Northern Eurasia. The values of organic carbon pool in phytomass fractions were estimated for each region and formation.     

西南地区不同地形降水稳定同位素特征及其水汽来源

为阐明西南地区不同地形对于降水稳定同位素的影响以及各个水汽团在地理上的分界线，选取四川盆地、云贵高原、青藏高原东部及横断山脉3个地区共10个研究点作为本次研究的对象，分析了西南地区大气降水中δD、δ18O的时空变化特征，并初步建立了3个地区大气降水线，探讨了降水稳定同位素与温度、降水量及水汽来源之间的关系，并利用HYSPLIT4.9模型分析追踪冬夏半年降水事件的水汽来源及运移路径。结果表明：西南地区降水稳定同位素存在显著的高程效应；δ18O=-0.0028H-3.93,R=0.89，降水中δ18Ｏ和δＤ值表现出由四川盆地-云贵高原-青藏高原东部与横断山脉地区逐渐贫化的趋势，季节变化规律特征为冬半年整体偏重，而夏半年整体偏轻。同时西南地区除昆明与成都地区外，d值整体上表现出夏低冬高的特征，符合我国季风降水影响区域的特点。3处地区大气降水线（LMWL）与全球大气降水线（GMWL）相比，四川盆地、青藏高原东部及横断山脉地区斜率与截距明显偏小，而云贵高原斜率与截距偏大，其主要与水汽凝结时温度、蒸发条件、水汽来源以及输送方式有关。温度效应和降水量效应在不同地区主导性存在差异，四川盆地地区、云贵高原地区、青藏高原东部以及横断山脉地区整体上不存在温度效应，存在显著降水量效应。西南各地区主导型水汽团也存在差异性，通过对不同地区冬夏季风期间主导型水汽团初步分析，受单一性水汽团影响的区域主要分布于西南部与东北部，而受多种水汽团影响的区域主要分布于西北部与东南部；贵阳-安顺一线处于西太平洋水汽团与孟加拉湾水汽团交界处，成都-卧龙-黄龙一线处于西太平洋水汽团与西风带水汽团的交界处。 关键词： 大气降水；稳定同位素；水汽来源；不同地形；西南地区     

Factors influencing the food transition in riverine communities in the Brazilian Amazon

The objective of this study was to determine the main patterns and factors influencing food transition in riverine people in the Brazilian Amazon. Through interviews with a semi-structured questionnaire, we inferred their food habits and provide information about general demographic, socioeconomic, resource use and environmental context. Data from the questionnaires were categorized and analyzed using a logistic regression model to assess the relative influence of socioeconomic and environment factors on the local diet. Based on a logistic regression data analysis, it was found a greater consumption of processed food significantly associated with multiple factors such as market participation, sex (female and male), government aid to forest conservation and environment context (upland and wetland). Although the local diet is composed mainly of local resources such as fish and cassava flour, increasing incomes due to direct government subsidy programs and marketing of cassava flour have influenced these local practices and habits. Through the analysis of factors influencing food transition, it was possible to evaluate those having the greatest effect on this Amazon region and propose an alternative method to subsidy food policy grounded in local opinion surveys.     

Morphogenesis of the Procumbent Life Form in Siberian Stone Pine at the Timberline in the Western Sayan Mountains

The morphology and development are described for Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibiricaDu Tour) growing at the timberline in the Western Sayan Mountains. Throughout ontogeny, these plants have a short stem trailing in an approximately horizontal direction. Maximal longevity and viability are characteristic of basal branches, which are able to root and produce vegetative generations. This allows these plants to be classified with the procumbent tree life form, in which the clones of most adaptive genotypes not only survive under extreme environmental conditions, but can also reproduce vegetatively.     

Changes in the Distribution of Broadleaf Tree Species in the Central Part of the Southern Urals since the 1970s

Russian Journal of Ecology - Changes in the distribution of broadleaf tree species—Tilia cordata Mill., Quercus robur L., Acer platanoides L., and Ulmus glabra Huds.—in the central part...     

武汉市一次污染过程的局地流场和边界层结构的数值模拟

利用2013年11月武汉市逐日空气质量资料、地面气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和L波段雷达探空资料，通过WRF模式模拟空气污染生消过程中的局地气象条件变化，探讨特殊地形条件下边界层结构变化和局地环流在污染物生消过程中的作用和影响。结果表明：（1）武汉地区当背景环流场强的时候，由地形引起的局地流场对污染物扩散的影响就弱，反之当背景环流场弱的时候, 地形对流场影响明显:夜间为山风，白天为谷风。夜间山风与偏西北气流及偏东气流在武汉及周边地区辐合，形成气流汇聚带，在武汉地区形成一个反复污染带,即由地形引起的局地流场对污染物扩散的贡献就大；（2）武汉地区发生空气污染时，地面湿度较高，边界层呈上干下湿状态，其特征为暖而干且有偏东小风，这导致污染物不断堆积和重污染过程的形成。     

Modeling the Pb activity concentration in the lower atmosphere

A worldwide radionuclide network of 80 stations, part of the International Monitoring System, is being setup to monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The radioactivity sampled at these stations is primarily ²²⁰Rn progenies affecting the detection capability. A model linking the ²²⁰Rn emanation with the sampled ²¹²Pb activity was developed and is presented here. The model and the performed measurements show that the variation of the sampled ²¹²Pb activity can be fully explained by the variation of the local ²²⁰Rn activity concentration.     

Changes in the ratio of plants with different mycorrhizal status in the course of pasture digression in the Southern Ural steppes

Trends in the proportions of plants differently interacting with mycorrhizal fungi in the course of pasture digression have been analyzed in the steppe zone of the Southern Urals. Estimates of species richness and abundance of plant groups with different mycorrhizal status have been obtained by comparing original data on the structure of phytocenoses with published data on the ability of plant species to form mycorrhizae. It has been shown that the proportions and abundance of obligate mycorrhizal species decrease significantly in the course of digression, with consequent increase in those of species less dependent on or independent of symbiosis with fungi, i.e., facultative mycorrhizal or obligate nonmycorrhizal plants.     

Dynamics of Restoration Processes in the Idle Solonetz Ecosystems in the Southern Transural Region

The initial period of idleness in the solonetz ecosystems of the southern Transural Region is characterized by a significant variability of their soil–plant communities, which is determined by natural periodicity and general direction of the process of ecosystem restoration. Selective consumption of salinizing ions by the plants growing on idle land activates the development of desalinization processes.