Simulating potential vegetation distribution in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau:A case study of Barkam County

The main objective of this study is to simulate the potential vegetation types on the basis of environmental parameters.The paper took Barkam County in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau as the study area.The vegetation distribution was mapped in 1994 and 2007 based on TM remote sensing images by object-oriented interpretation method.We overlaid the two maps to find out the vegetation patches which have not changed,and took them as stable types.Fifty per cent of the stable patches were randomly sampled to operate the logistic regression with related environmental parameters;others were used as test data of simulated results.Seven environmental parameters were mapped,including elevation,slope,aspect,surface curvature,solar radiation,temperature and precipitation,based on DEM data and meteorological site data by GIS technology.The relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables were quantified by logistic regression.The distribution probabilities of each vegetation type were calculated.Finally,the spatial distribution of potential vegetation was simulated.This research can provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and ecological construction in this area.     

湖南省汨罗市再生资源产业集群升级研究

随着我国经济快速增长。生态建设和环境保护的形势日益严峻，再生资源产业作为根本解决资源枯竭、能源短缺、环境污染等问题的有效途径，对我国资源节约型、环境友好型社会建设具有重要战略意义。汨罗市再生资源产业历史悠久，已经初步建立起再生资源回收系统、再生资源加工利用系统和废弃物资无害化处置系统．呈现出产业集群发展雏形。针对目前汨罗市再生资源产业集群存在的产业链条短、产品加工度不高、附加值低等问题。必须通过再生资源产业价值链技术创新、链核延伸和链条辐射。实现汨罗市再生资源产业集群的动态升级。加速汨罗市再生资源产业集群区域品牌的形成。为其他地区和城市再生资源产业发展提供重要经验借鉴和发展启示。     

渤海海洋资源价值量核算的研究

探讨海洋资源核算的目的在于重新建立海洋资源价值观，科学评价、合理开发利用海洋资源，为实施有效的管理、保障区域海洋经济的可持续发展提供依据。以海洋资源分类为基础，构建了水产，港址、海洋石油、海盐、滨海景观、滩涂等海洋资源价值量评估的基本方法。以渤海为研究区域．以2004年为基准年．对上述海洋资源初步进行货币化的价值量核算。结果表明：环渤海地区主要海洋资源价值为8028亿元．相当于当年环渤海地区生产总值的24％；海洋资源价值以港址资源为主。占总价值的38．56％；海洋资源价值主要分布在山东地区。占总价值的47.4％；单位岸线海洋资源价值差异大，其中天津最高为7．84亿元／km；海洋资源开发雷同现象严重．环渤海各地区均以海洋渔业、港口运输业和滨海旅游业为主。     

Impact of population dynamics on Margalla Hills Ecosystem:a community-level case study

Margalla Hills National Park(MHNP) is a declared natural reserve of Pakistan,and Saidpur village is located at its foothills.To sustain livelihood,Saidpur community relies on natural resources and has established an intriguing relationship with the surrounding ecosystem.Human intrusion and related impacts were investigated through self-structured questionnaire from village community to gather information about demography,life practices,natural resource use,and their perception about the environment.Quadrat analysis revealed that the overall plant density was<4 plants/m~2,whereas ordination biplot has indicated significant reduction in plant cover and sparse distribution of species in areas close to human settlement.Survey results show that more than 50%families rely on forest wood as fuel source.Logistic regression has identified education paucity(odds ratio,OR=2.6,95%confidence interval,CI=1.0-6.7),large family size(OR= 5.0,95%CI=1.5-16.6),and fuel type(OR=3.5,95%CI=1.2-9.9)as significant predictors of accelerated forest cutting in MHNP.Male members were mostly illiterate and in favor to promote construction activities which reflects their low concern and casual attitude toward resource conservation.In this study,lack of awareness and peoples’ dependency on natural resources emerged as priority challenges,and hence,we suggest provision of alternate fuel sources,better education and sustained income resources as incentives to bring behavioral change.It is pivotal to involve local community before the adoption of any conservation plan as intervention strategy to protect MHNP ecosystem.     

基于外部性理论的中国环境管理体制设计

环境问题的外部性属性决定了其不可能依靠市场解决。必须进行适当的政府干预。研究外部性的意义在于内部化，即纠正市场失灵。本文对外部性进行了主体划分．建立了以时间和空间为基准的外部性分类矩阵，构建了外部性绝对大小和相对大小的概念模型。基于这些研究．分别回答环境问题是否需要管理、由谁来管、采取什么手段以及管到什么程度的问题．并由此提出“三级两层”的中国环境管理体制框架。跨行政区的环境外部性应当由上一级政府负责管理，在总社会成本最小化的前提下．应当在尽量小的范围实现较高程度的内部化，内部化手段的搭配符合费用效果最好原则。建议中国的环境管理体制改革在保留国家、省、市三级环境管理机构的基础上。设置环保总局和省环保局的分局以便直接管理省际、市际等外部性。     

中国进出口贸易中的隐含能估算

采用投入产出法。估算了1997-2006年中国进出口贸易中的隐含能。在考虑隐含能和进出口能源产品的情况下，都按我国的能耗效率对进出口进行的保守估计发现：1997-2006年，我国的能源进出口基本持平．其中1999-2005年是一个微弱的能源净进口国，而1997。1998和2006年却是能源净出口国；按照日本的能耗效率对进口产品进行调整后的乐观估计发现中国则是一个更大的能源净出口国，每年能源净出口量在10000-50000万t标煤之间，其中1997-2002年我国能源净出口量占当年能源消费总量的10％左右。之后该数字迅速增长，2006年更高达18．8％。可见我国进口的能源（包括进口产品中的隐含能）又以出口产品的形式输出到了国外。从能源净消费的角度看我国并没有多消费世界上其他国家的能源。虽然我国近年来能源产品进口增加较快，但我国快速增长的净出口使这些能源又“隐含”在产品中离开了中国。     

Debating ecological justice:implications for critical environmental education

This article will briefly discuss the implications of recognition of ecological justice in relation to environmental education(EE) and education for sustainable development(ESD).It is argued that the present conception of environment taught through EE and ESD negates the subjectivity of non-human species and ignores the ethical imperatives of ecological justice.Evocating environmental ethics,major directions integrating ecological justice into EE and ESD are proposed.     

SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION

<正>Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment,Print ISSN 1004-2857,Online ISSN 2325-4262,Volume 11,2013,Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment(www.tandfonline.com/tpre)is a peer-reviewed journal published in March,June,September,and December by TaylorFrancis,4 Park Square,Milton Park,Abingdon,Oxon,OX14 4RN,UK.     

Sustainability analysis of SEEA indicators for non-renewable resources

Despite the fact that the non-renewable resources industry contributes greatly to regional and national gross domestic product(GDP),it casts massive negative impacts on the environment,which fails to be deducted from economic growth.Hence,sustainable development of non-renewable resources(extraction and processing)is playing an essential role in boosting economic growth continuously.The System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting(SEEA)proposed by the United Nations Statistics Division(UNSD)provides a brand-new perspective for sustainability study.This paper designs a fundamental approach of green accounting for non-renewable resources based on SEEA.Three main aspects of the accounting are extracted to explore the way of analysis for sustainability indicators,which are not touched upon by SEEA.Main analyses are as follows:(1)the analysis on the influence of the change of the discount rate in user cost(UC);(2)correlation analysis between environmental degradation and pollutants emission intensity;(3)analysis of the accounting results of green GDP and green GCF(gross capital formation).Then taking petroleum resources in Shandong Province as an example,this paper will calculate and analyze green data based on the accounting and analytical approaches discussed above.However,sustainability indicators studied in the paper are just associated with past economic activities,while investigation into the factors of the change of sustainability indicators is the one most critical point in relevant policymaking.     

Government drive,economic induction,and construction of food traceability systems:An empirical study based on supermarket samples from ’first-tier’ and ’Olympic’ cities in China

Food traceability systems are capable of overcoming or alleviating problems caused by incomplete and asymmetric information on food markets.This study conducts an empirical analysis using 308 supermarket samples from China’s Beijing,Guangzhou,and Qingdao to determine the factors that influence supermarket behavior when operating traceability systems.The results show that operating profits(generated from food traceability systems),scale of operation,level of economic development(of a city),and government subsidies will positively affect the decision of supermarkets to use traceability systems.At the same time,government policies promoting food traceability systems should have a long-term role.     

SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION

<正>Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment,Print ISSN 1004-2857,Online ISSN 2325-4262,Volume 11,2013.Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment(www.tandfonline.com/tpre)is a peer-reviewed journal published in March,June,September,and December by TaylorFrancis,4 Park Square,Milton Park,Abingdon,Oxon,OX14 4RN,UK.     

电力短缺与动态定价模型——以广西为例

随着经济发展和人口增长,广西作为一个水利资源丰富的地区却正面临着日益严重的电力短缺问题。针对这种情形,政策制定者和当地政府采取了一系列措施来缓解电力短缺．例如取消对用电大户的价格折扣、分时分地区限制用电、限制空调取暖等设备的使用等，但这些措施并非长久之计。我们认为广西现行的政府单一定价并不能反映电力市场的真实供求状况，也是造成电力短缺的重要原因。因此。根据电力市场实际的供求状况对电价进行重构仍然是一种非常必要的手段。本文扩展了Forsund（2005）的动态定价模型．分析结果显示重构的电力价格将随水价值的变化而波动。此外，我们比较了社会最优和自然垄断情况下的定价机制．发现社会最优价格与垄断价格的差异有可能加剧电力短缺。     

河南省产业结构演进和经济增长关系的实证分析

以1980-2005年统计数据为基础,利用偏离—份额分析方法,系统研究了河南5大经济区产业结构、变迁与区域经济发展之间的关系,为各区域优化产业结构、促进区域经济协调发展提供政策依据。研究结果表明：①相对于全国产业结构演变趋势,河南产业结构水平仍然低下,但河南产业结构的演变趋势符合产业结构演变的一般规律。②河南产业结构演变的空间差异比较明显。③河南产业结构演进对经济增长的影响分为产业结构偏离为负,竞争力偏离份额为负;产业结构偏离为正,竞争力偏离份额为正;产业结构偏离为正,竞争力偏离份额为负3种类型。④产业结构变迁对河南各区域经济发展影响较大。研究指出,利用高新技术对河南传统产业进行技术改造,大力发展第三产业,提高河南省产业结构的整体水平,大力发展农产品深加工产业,提高河南省农产品的附加值,应成为今后河南省产业结构调整的战略选择。     

构筑我国绿色贸易体系的对策研究

环境与贸易紧密联系相互影响。我国现行的贸易体系不仅使贸易不可持续．而且给资源环境带来了很大压力。要实现优化贸易增长和缓解资源环境压力的“双赢”目标，需要构筑绿色贸易体系。绿色贸易体系是指通过一定的环境管理政策手段来绿化或优化贸易结构、调控贸易总量、提高贸易的环境效率。最终能够减少并扭转我国贸易的资源环境逆差和促进绿色贸易发展的政策体系。绿色贸易体系的政策框架包括：从具体政策措施看．包括加征产品出口的资源环境关税、制定基于环保目的的市场准入与准出制度,设计投资的资源环境导向等环保“阀门”和手段；从政策的作用点看．包括从产品、企业、行业三个层面着手；从政策的管理看，依据环境影响的程度。对产品、企业和行业分别进行鼓励、许可、限制和禁止贸易的分类管理。     

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy,this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption,and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size,level of economic development,energy intensity,the proportion of energy consumption,energy structure,and the coefficient of carbon emissions.Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000-2012,various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI).The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity,energy structure,and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect;the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006,then changed to positive.Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size,improving the quality of economic development,supporting research into new energy technology,accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure,and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.     

Temporal-spatial change and driving mechanism for regional difference of domestic tourism in China

By using the variation coefficient,Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient,this paper makes preliminary exploration of temporalspatial change features and driving mechanism for regional differences of domestic tourism in China from 1995 to 2009.According to the results,we drew the following conclusions:(1)The regional difference of domestic tourism in China tends to be narrowing generally,and is less than that of inbound tourism,playing an important role in narrowing the overall gap of regional tourism in China.(2)The regional internal difference features:inter-provincial difference in the eastern region and difference among the eastern,central and western regions are comparatively obvious and demonstrate a significantly shrinking tendency,the change tendency is consistent with the change tendency of overall difference and exercises a decisive role in overall difference,whereas the inter-provincial difference in the central and western regions is small and relatively stable,having less influence on the overall difference.(3)The temporal-spatial change in regional difference is featured by:low-level provinces occupy a majority and are concentrated in the central and western regions,showing a tendency of narrowing difference;high-level provinces are concentrated in the eastern region,showing a tendency of spreading to the central and western regions;spatial pattern of regional difference demonstrates 4 types,i.e."proliferation type","polarization type","quiescence type"and"collapse type."(4)The driving force for regional difference of domestic tourism in China comes down to 3 aspects:regional socio-economic attribute,regional transport accessibility level and regional development policy.     

GDP能耗统计比较方法研究

以2005年的万元GDP能耗1．22t标准煤作为基准是明确的，那么2006年国家的万元GDP能耗究竟是1．173t标准煤还是1．21t标准煤．关系到对GDP能耗降低率的总体判断和对这一约束性指标的科学理解。GDP能耗的计算比较方法有规模型GDP能耗和速度型GDP能耗2种，由于计算公式的不同。所以。GDP数据的可比并不一定意昧着GDP能耗数据的同口径。建议：①完善生产总值指数速度的编制和计算。并发布不变价GDP绝对值数据。在条件成熟时再采用速度型GDP能耗指标进行考核；②采用规模型GDP能耗指标进行宏观监察和微观考核；③继续加强各地区编制地区能源平衡表工作，并定期发布综合能耗总量情况；④建立科学的GDP能耗统计指标体系。并用以指导实践。     

基于生态理论的旅游产业集群发展特征研究

旅游产业集群的生态属性研究已经成为当前的热点。当前利用生态理论研究旅游产业集群的发展规律．对我国旅游产业集群的健康发展具有非常重要的意义。本文基于生态理论。从旅游产业集群的发展特征出发，认为旅游生态资源潜力、集群生态成长机制、集群生态外部环境等是影响其发展的主要因素．据此选择集群生态资源潜力、集群生态结构、集群外部环境等指标。将旅游产业集群生命周期分为旅游产业集群形成、发展、成熟、衰退——转型等四个阶段，并分析了各个发展阶段的特点。最后提出开拓旅游产业集群生态营养源泉、构建旅游产业集群与其生态环境的和谐互动机制、维护旅游产业集群内部生态平衡等相关的建议。     

Analysis of CO2 emissions peak:China’s objective and strategy

Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO₂ reduction and emission peak,and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO₂ emissions reduction.They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment,and internal needs,to achieve sustainable development.Generally speaking,a country’s CO₂ emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization.By then,connotative economic growth will appear,GDP will grow slowly,energy consumption elasticity will decrease,and energy consumption growth will slow down-dependent mainly on new and renewable energies.Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further.When CO₂ emission reaches its peak,the annual reduction rate of CO₂ intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate;and the annual reduction rate of CO₂ intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption.Therefore,three important approaches to promotion of CO₂ emission peak can be concluded:maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth,strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity,and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO₂ intensity of energy use.By around 2030,China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization.Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3%or higher.The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20-25%,and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6-8%.The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5%will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels.The annual decline in CO₂ intensity of GDP will reach 4.5%or higher,which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth     

Research into adaptive countermeasures to addressing the effects of climate change on agriculture

Agriculture is one of the most sensitive and fragile areas in regard to climate change,with direct or potentially indirect impacts on agricultural production and related processes;improving the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt is the key measure of climate change.The primary impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector include increased annual average temperatures,resulting in a higher level of warming available for the production of agricultural resources extension of the growing season.Climate change will transform China’s cropping systems and agricultural framework,resulting in the northwards extension of land suitable for agriculture.Climate change has impacts on crop yield and quality,as well as climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods,pests and diseases,food security,and agricultural trade.There are significant regional differences in the impact of climate change in agriculture because of China’s vast land mass,and research into adaptation measures and strategy in agriculture has become an important aspect of climate change.Current major adaptation technologies include the following:adjusting agricultural cropping systems and layout,breeding good crop varieties,boosting agro-climatic disaster prevention and control,and enhancing the development of agricultural infrastructure.In this paper we analyze the problems for agriculture in adapting to climate change,including poor adoption of adaptation technology,unavailability of adaptation technologies,the lack of cost-benefit analysis of adaptation technologies,financial and policy barriers,and so on.A series of adaptation measures and strategies in the field of agriculture are proposed in this paper,including(1) reduction of systematic scientific uncertainty through research on the impacts of climate change;(2) promotion of agricultural status in the global climate change negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change;(3) establishing a list of adaptation technologies and technology integration sys